Cracks in the Cabinet: Why Prediction Markets are Betting Against Kristi Noem and Howard Lutnick
The second Trump administration arrived with a promise of absolute loyalty and "unprecedented stability." For a year, that narrative held, at least compared to the revolving door of 2017. But as we close out February 2026, the cracks aren't just showing;…
Nearly $8M Wagered on Alien Confirmation Before 2027 as Odds Jump to 16%
While Congress debates budgets and sportsbooks argue over player props… Prediction markets are quietly pricing first contact. On Polymarket, the question: “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” Current price: 16%24H move: +8%Total volume:…
Kalshi Market Odds: Ali Khamenei Out as Supreme Leader?
Twitter/X is swarming daily with users convinced an imminent conflict with Iran is unfolding, and naturally, Kalshi’s prediction markets have a contract for that too. How To Trade This (Because “WWIII Trending” Isn’t a Strategy) Current board: Before Mar…
Kalshi Prediction Markets Price Trump’s State of the Union Speech – Here’s What Traders Expect
Kalshi Traders Are Pricing the Bingo Card If you’re trading the Kalshi “What will Trump say?” market, congratulations, you’ve found the only place in America where “Discombobulator” has an implied probability. Let’s break this down like we would an…
February Betting App Download Race: Kalshi Runs Away With It (and It’s Not Close)
If you needed a reminder that Super Bowl marketing season is basically a mini stimulus package, here you go. The top betting (and betting-adjacent) apps are putting up monster download numbers in February so far, and while downloads aren’t the same as…
Kalshi NYC Giveaway: How to Get $50 in Free Groceries Today
Because nothing says “trustworthy financial exchange” quite like footing someone’s grocery bill so they’ll finally understand what a prediction market is, right? Kalshi is basically saying, “Hey New York, forget your sky-high rent and avocado toast — let…
Prediction Markets Disrupt Big Gambling as Sportsbook Giants Lose Ground
Ah yes, the sweet irony of markets doing what markets do best: Humbling billion-dollar empires at the worst possible moment. Shares of DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment (parent company of FanDuel) have been hit hard after whispers grew louder that…
Market Signal: Prediction Markets Are Pricing in a Historic Shift in Iran
A significant development is underway in the prediction markets on Polymarket. While traditional news headlines catch up, the "wisdom of the crowd", backed by millions of dollars in volume, is rapidly pricing in a series of cascading events involving…
Robinhood Prediction Market: Promo Code, How It Works, and What You Need to Know (2026)
Robinhood, yes, that Robinhood, has officially jumped into the prediction market world. And because it’s Robinhood, it arrived with a clean design, slick UX, and the subtle energy of a company that very much wants you to forgive it for 2021. If you're…
The Heisman’s Real Voters Are on Kalshi and Polymarket This Year
Welcome to the 2025 Heisman race, where the sportsbooks don’t matter, the media doesn’t matter, and the voters don’t matter, because Kalshi and Polymarket have already reduced the entire award to a two-man duel decided by one football game on Saturday.…
2026 Midterms: Prediction Markets Smell a Dem Sweep
If the political class is confused about 2026, don’t worry, the prediction markets have already decided what’s going to happen, how it’s going to happen, and how much they’re willing to lose betting on it. Kalshi and Polymarket traders have been grinding…
2028 Election Prediction Markets Data
Kalshi and Polymarket traders continue to out-dramatic cable news, and with actual numbers. If you thought the last election cycle was chaotic, congratulations, prediction markets have decided to turn 2028 into a long-running dark comedy. Let’s check in…