Close

Search

Subscribe

CLEATZ NFL Power Index

How to read the CPI

What the CLEATZ Power Index is
— and why it beats a record

The CLEATZ Power Index (CPI) is a composite NFL power rating that goes beyond wins and losses. Instead of ranking teams by record, CPI weights point differential, offensive and defensive scoring efficiency, and turnover luck regression to surface how good teams actually are — not just how fortunate they’ve been in close games. A team can go 10-7 and rank #20 in CPI. Another can go 8-9 and rank #8. The record is what happened. CPI is closer to what’s true.

CPI Score
The composite rating (0–100)Normalized across all 32 teams. 100 = best possible. Computed from four weighted inputs — point differential, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and turnover luck. Higher is better.
Pt Diff
Total season point differentialRuns scored minus runs allowed across all 17 games. The single most predictive season stat in football — more stable than record, less noisy than individual game outcomes.
vs Record
CPI rank minus W-L rank▲ green = CPI thinks you’re better than your record suggests. ▼ red = CPI thinks you got lucky. The bigger the number, the bigger the gap.
TO Luck
Turnover luck regression scoreFumble recoveries regress to 50% over time. Teams above zero got lucky. Teams below zero are due for positive regression.
vs Record badge
▲6▼4
A green ▲6 means CPI ranks that team 6 spots higher than their win-loss rank. A red ▼4 means CPI is skeptical of their record.
TO Luck badge
+3.8 risk-1.2 due
Risk flags teams whose fumble recovery rate was well above 50%. Due flags teams who ran cold on fumble luck and should improve.
Result badges
SB ChampPlayoff
Shows each team’s postseason result for the 2025 season. Use this to cross-reference how well CPI predicted playoff success.
Methodology
nflfastR EPA data·Pro Football Reference·EPA tier benchmarks via nfelo·Trade CPI signals on Kalshi
What the data is telling us

The 2025 CPI stories
no power ranking caught

The biggest story of 2025
The Chiefs weren’t as bad as 6-11 looks

Kansas City finished with a +34 point differential despite going 6-11 — a gap that almost never happens to genuinely bad teams. The Chiefs were CPI #18 all season.


The Chiefs ran historically cold on turnover luck (-3.8, worst in the league) and lost a league-high nine games by seven points or fewer. Heading into 2026, CPI flags Kansas City as the single most undervalued team in division winner markets.

+34
Point differential
Chiefs 2025 season
Despite a 6-11 record

-3.8
TO luck score
Worst fumble recovery variance
in the entire league
CPI validation
CPI called the Seahawks all season long

Seattle’s 17.2 PPG allowed was the best defensive efficiency mark in the NFL. CPI had them ranked #1 from Week 6 onward — long before the public consensus caught up. They won Super Bowl LX.

Transformation, not a fluke
The Jaguars turnaround was real

From 4-13 in 2024 to 13-4 in 2025. Jacksonville’s +138 point differential was the fourth-best in the league. Teams with that kind of efficiency margin don’t stumble into 13 wins.

Most underrated team of 2025
Indianapolis was a top-10 team in an 8-9 body

The Colts missed the playoffs at 8-9 but posted a +54 point differential — identical to the Eagles, who made it at 11-6. CPI ranked Indianapolis CPI #12, six spots higher than their win-loss rank.

cleatz.com — CPI v2.0 — 2025 Season Final

NFLCLEATZ Power
Index

Composite power ratings built from point differential, scoring efficiency, SOS-adjusted record, and turnover luck regression. Full 2025 regular season — all 32 teams ranked.

SB LX Champion: Seattle Seahawks  ·  14-3
Season
2025 NFL
Week 18 Final · All 32 Teams
Biggest story
Chiefs 6-11 · +34 pt diff
Worst dynasty collapse in NFL history
CPI #1 · SB Champion
SEA Seahawks
14-3 · +191 pt diff · 17.2 PPG allowed
Best efficiency value
HOU Texans
12-5 · +109 · only 17.4 PPG allowed
Biggest overperformer
KC Chiefs
6-11 record · +34 pt diff · dynasty ends
Most underrated by record
IND Colts
8-9 W-L · +54 pt diff · CPI top 10
Seahawks win it all — Best defense in the league (17.2 PPG allowed) paired with a strong offense (+191 pt diff). CPI had them #1 all season.
Chiefs dynasty collapses — 6-11 record but +34 pt differential suggests they weren’t as bad as their record. Turnover luck and close-game variance finally caught up.
Jaguars shock story — 4-13 in 2024 to 13-4 in 2025. CPI flags this as a genuine transformation, not a fluke.
Patriots resurface — 4-13 to 14-3 with Drake Maye. +170 pt diff confirms the record was real. Lost SB to Seattle.
CPI Power Rankings — 2025 Final
Click columns to sort
CPI ranks team higher than record
CPI ranks team lower than record
Turnover luck flag
Rk ↕TeamCPI ↕W-LPt Diff ↕PPG ↕PPG All ↕vs Record ↕TO LuckResult
* CPI = composite of point differential (35%), defensive efficiency (25%), offensive efficiency (25%), turnover luck regression (15%). Source: 2025 NFL final regular season standings.
Biggest CPI vs Record gaps
TeamW-L RkCPI RkEdge
Turnover Luck flags
TeamW-LPt DiffTO Signal
What makes CPI different
∑
Core metric
Efficiency-weighted composite
Point differential and scoring efficiency weighted at 1.6x defensive metrics. The Chiefs’ +34 pt diff despite 6-11 is exactly the signal CPI catches that pure record misses.
±
Core metric
Turnover luck regression
Fumble recovery rates regress toward 50% over time. The 2025 Chiefs (-3.8 TO luck) show how negative fumble variance contributed to their collapse.
◊
Core metric
Defensive efficiency anchor
The Seahawks (17.2 PPG allowed) and Texans (17.4 PPG allowed) had the two best defenses. CPI weights this heavily.
↔
2026 addition
Market implied rating
Back-calculated from Kalshi Super Bowl and division winner odds every week. The gap between CPI and market pricing is your actionable edge signal.
⚡
2026 addition
QB EPA per dropback
Drake Maye’s emergence was the biggest single-player CPI swing in the dataset. Per-dropback EPA isolates QB contribution from team context.
△
2026 addition
Clutch 4Q rating
Isolating 4th-quarter efficiency in games within 7 points strips garbage time and surfaces the teams that actually win when it matters.

Use CPI to trade on Kalshi

CPI surfaces teams the market is mispricing heading into the 2026 season. Trade NFL division winners, Super Bowl futures, and game outcomes on Kalshi — use code CLEATZ for a signup bonus.

Get Kalshi Bonus →

Jason Ziernicki
Founder at CLEATZ | jason@cleatz.com | Web |  + posts

Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.

He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.

His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.