MLB Standings 2026: Division Records & World Series Odds

Where the standings and the market disagree most

The point of putting records and prices in the same table is the gap between them. A record is what already happened; a price is what traders think happens from here. Below are the teams where those two readings are furthest apart right now — ranked by how many places a team sits away from where its record would put it. This section is generated from the table above, so it changes when the table changes.

What moved in the last week

Pennant prices compared against the snapshot taken 6 days ago. Movement is in cents of implied probability.

Snapshots are written once a week. The first week after install has nothing to compare against, so this section stays hidden until two snapshots exist.

Polymarket vs Kalshi: where the two books disagree

Every price cell above stacks two numbers — Polymarket on top, Kalshi below. They price the same outcome and they rarely land on the same number. Different user bases, different fee structures, different depth on long-tail teams. When the two drift apart it usually means one side has stale liquidity or a large position nobody has unwound yet.

Widest gaps in this snapshot

In relative terms the loudest disagreement is the Rangers on the pennant market: 3.7¢ on Polymarket against 6.0¢ on Kalshi, roughly 1.6×. At prices this small a cent of spread is a large fraction of the whole price, so treat thin-market divergence with more caution than a gap at the top of the board.

How to read these cent prices

If you have not used a prediction market before, the cents look strange. They are the simplest number on the page. A contract at 25¢ means the market puts the outcome at about 25%. If it hits, the contract settles at $1 and you keep 75¢ per share. If it misses, it settles at $0 and you lose the 25¢.

Why this reads cleaner than a futures price

A sportsbook quoting a team at +250 to win the World Series is showing an implied probability of about 28.6% — but that number has the book’s margin baked in, so the book’s own estimate sits below it. Season-long futures markets carry some of the widest margins on the board. An exchange price is what one trader paid another, with fees charged separately rather than folded into the line, so it sits much closer to a straight probability read. Our World Series odds board puts the sportsbook numbers next to the exchange prices if you want to see the size of that margin team by team.

What actually moves a pennant price

Futures do not move on last night’s box score. They move when the expectation for the rest of the season changes. The recurring drivers:

The playoff format behind these prices

Since 2022 the field has been six teams per league: three division winners and three wild cards. The top two division winners get a bye straight to the Division Series. The remaining four play a best-of-three Wild Card round — the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed, the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed, and all three games are at the higher seed’s park.

Two consequences show up directly in the prices above:

• A bye is worth money. Skipping a round is one fewer best-of-three coin flip, which is why the same roster is priced higher as a division winner than as a wild card.
• The 6-seed pays for its path. Three road games against a division winner, then a full Division Series, before anything else. The market discounts that seed heavily even when the talent looks comparable.

Which seed a team is currently holding is the missing variable in most of the prices above. Our MLB playoff picture lays out the wild card race and the bracket as it stands, so you can see who is playing for a bye and who is playing to host a game.

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