2026 NFL Draft Odds Tracker: Daily Movement on Picks #2–#10

The 2026 NFL Draft market got turned on its head this week. David Bailey opened Tuesday as a heavy -160 favorite to go second overall to the New York Jets. By Saturday night, he was a +125 underdog at the same slot, and Arvell Reese had surged from a +120 afterthought to a firm -175 favorite. That kind of four-day swing doesn’t happen without real information moving through the betting market, and with the draft kicking off Thursday, April 23 at 8 p.m. ET in Pittsburgh, the action is just getting started.

Fernando Mendoza is locked in at No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders at -20000, which means the first genuine betting market of draft night is the Jets at No. 2. From there, the top 10 picks are wide open, with defensive edge rushers, receivers, and offensive linemen all in live contention at multiple slots.

This tracker updates daily with the latest DraftKings odds on every player in the market for picks #2 through #10.

You’ll find current implied probabilities, day-over-day trend arrows, each pick’s biggest movers, and trade context (including the Giants acquiring pick #10 from Cincinnati in the Dexter Lawrence deal). Numbers last refreshed April 19.

How the Pick #2 Market Flipped in 72 Hours

The Bailey-to-Reese reversal at the second overall pick is the single biggest market signal of draft week, and it traces back to one piece of reporting.

Late on Wednesday, April 15, CBS Sports reported that the Jets had canceled their scheduled top-30 visit with Bailey. The bettors’ read was immediate: Jets front offices don’t cancel pre-draft visits with players they’re seriously considering unless they’ve already made up their minds, one way or the other. Bailey’s odds moved from -160 to -115 within hours. By Thursday morning, Reese had pulled even at -115. By Friday, Reese hit -130.

Over the weekend, the price kept drifting. As of Saturday’s close, Reese sits at -175, and Bailey has collapsed all the way to +125.

That’s a 20-point implied probability shift in Reese’s favor in under four days, the kind of movement you typically only see when information is leaking. The Jets’ willingness to spend the freed-up top-30 visit elsewhere signals they feel their homework on Bailey is done, and the market is voting that the homework came back unfavorable.

Bailey hasn’t disappeared from the board; he’s now the +140 favorite to go third to the Arizona Cardinals. But for a player who opened the week as the consensus second overall pick, a 72-hour market repricing this severe is the strongest betting signal we’ve had heading into draft night.

Biggest Market Movers Across the Top 10

Beyond the Bailey-Reese flip, four other storylines are moving the top-10 board ahead of Thursday.

Jordyn Tyson is the hottest name in the market. The Arizona State receiver is rising at every slot where he appears. At pick #5 to the Giants, he’s shortened from +2200 to +700 in four days. At #7 to Washington, he’s moved from +1400 to +550. At #8 to the Saints, he’s jumped all the way to favorite at +240, up from +425. And at pick #10, now in Giants hands after the trade — he’s gone from +2500 to +400. Tyson held a private workout over the weekend that appears to have crystallized team interest, and the market is scrambling to find his actual landing spot.

Jeremiyah Love is solidifying as the No. 4 pick. The Notre Dame back opened the week as a +100 co-favorite at Tennessee and now sits at -135, a healthy 57% implied probability. If the Titans take Love, it would be one of the higher running back selections of the modern era — a reminder of how highly this coaching staff grades him as a three-down back.

Carnell Tate is weakening at Cleveland. Tate opened as the clear favorite at pick #6 at +175, but his number has drifted to +265 as Sonny Styles, Jordyn Tyson, and Caleb Downs all climb behind him. Tate remains the market’s favorite to be the first receiver drafted, but the gap between him and the field is closing fast.

The Giants acquiring pick #10 reshaped the entire board. When the pick belonged to Cincinnati, the market had Rueben Bain Jr. at +550 and Mansoor Delane at +450. Both have lengthened significantly (Bain to +2200, Delane to +1000) now that a receiver-needy Giants team controls the slot. Spencer Fano shortened from +1800 to +850, and Tyson went from +2500 to +400. It’s the cleanest example this cycle of how much a single trade can move a positional board, cornerback odds out, offensive line, and receiver odds in.

Mock Draft Based on Current Betting Favorites

Here’s a top-10 mock built from today’s DraftKings market, with each slot assigned to its current favorite. Where the favorite at a given slot was already “drafted” earlier in the mock, we move to the next-shortest available price.

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School	Current Odds
1	Las Vegas Raiders	Fernando Mendoza	QB	Indiana	-20000
2	New York Jets	Arvell Reese	EDGE	Ohio State	-175
3	Arizona Cardinals	David Bailey	EDGE	Texas Tech	+140
4	Tennessee Titans	Jeremiyah Love	RB	Notre Dame	-135
5	New York Giants	Sonny Styles	LB	Ohio State	+150
6	Cleveland Browns	Carnell Tate	WR	Ohio State	+265
7	Washington Commanders	Jordyn Tyson	WR	Arizona State	+550
8	New Orleans Saints	Mansoor Delane	CB	Virginia Tech	+400
9	Kansas City Chiefs	Rueben Bain Jr.	EDGE	Miami	+370
10	New York Giants	Caleb Downs	S	Ohio State	+280

A few things jump out. This mock lands three Ohio State players inside the top six (Reese, Styles, Tate), which would be one of the program’s best-ever first-round showings. It also assigns two picks to the Giants (#5 and #10) and puts Jeremiyah Love at #4 as the highest-drafted running back in a decade.

Arvell Reese going second would be the first non-Heisman, non-quarterback favorite to hold steady this close to the clock since Travon Walker in 2022, a parallel that’s not lost on bettors, given Walker’s last-minute surge came the same weekend before the draft.

The least certain slot on this board is Washington at pick #7, where four different players currently sit inside +650 implied odds. Expect that to be the most volatile number in the next 72 hours.

Best Betting Value in the 2026 NFL Draft Top 10

A few spots where the price and the market signal don’t quite line up. None of these are locks — they’re just where we think the number hasn’t fully caught up to the story.

Jordyn Tyson at Pick #5 (+700). Even with four days of sharp movement, Tyson at the Giants still sits at 12.5% implied probability at DraftKings. Meanwhile, he’s the +240 favorite at pick #8 and has shortened at every slot he appears in. If the reason Tyson is rising is genuine team interest rather than mock-draft momentum, the Giants, sitting on two top-10 picks and an obvious need for receiver help for Jaxson Dart, make as much sense as any team on the board. At +700, you’re getting paid as if this is a 1-in-8 outcome, when the market’s direction of travel suggests it’s closer to 1-in-5.

Spencer Fano at Pick #10 (+850). With the Giants now controlling both #5 and #10, the strategic question is whether they use one of them to protect their second-year quarterback. Fano is the top tackle prospect on most boards, and his +850 price at this slot implies a roughly 10.5% probability. That feels light if you believe New York’s second top-10 pick goes trench-side. Worth watching if late-week reporting tilts toward the Giants prioritizing offensive line.

Neither of these is a suggestion to back up the truck; draft props are volatile, and a single late trade or leaked decision can vaporize any edge. But if you’re looking for spots where the implied probability hasn’t fully caught up to the story, these are the two we’re tracking.

→ Bet the Draft on KALSHI

What’s Next – The Final 72 Hours Before Draft Day

Historically, the final 72 hours before an NFL Draft are when the market moves most. Beat writers start breaking actual team intel, agents leak landing spots to manage client expectations, and front offices plant selective smoke to cover trade-up moves. Look for the Jets’ decision at No. 2 to ripple through the top five, if Reese goes there, Bailey’s path to Arizona firms up, and the board behind them reorders.

The Giants’ two-pick strategy is the other wildcard to watch: every reported target at #5 and #10 shifts the odds across multiple slots simultaneously.

This tracker updates daily until kickoff. Check back each morning for the latest market moves.