2027 Super Bowl Odds: DraftKings vs. Kalshi vs. Polymarket
With the 2026 NFL season opener set for September 13, 2026, the futures market is already heating up. But looking at a single sportsbook doesn’t give you the full picture. Smart bettors are increasingly turning to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to tap the “wisdom of the crowd.”
While DraftKings sets lines to manage its own liability, prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell “shares” in a team’s championship prospects, often reacting faster to personnel changes and locker-room rumors. This comparison identifies where the “house” might be lagging behind the market’s collective intelligence.
LAST UPDATED APRIL 26, 2026
2027 Super Bowl
Champion Odds
DraftKings sportsbook odds vs. live Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets, refreshed after the 2026 NFL Draft. The Rams have surged into the outright favorite spot at +800, with defending champion Seattle just behind at +1000.
Live odds as of April 26, 2026 · Super Bowl LXI: Sun Feb 14, 2027 · Levi’s Stadium- DraftKings (American odds)
- Kalshi (implied %)
- Polymarket (implied %)
How to Read These Super Bowl 61 Odds
What Do the DraftKings Odds Mean?
DraftKings uses “American odds” (e.g., +750). These represent the profit on a $100 bet. To find the “implied probability” of these odds, what a sportsbook thinks the team’s chances actually are, you use this formula:
$$\text{Implied Probability} = \frac{100}{\text{Odds} + 100}$$
For example, the Rams at +750 have an implied probability of approximately 11.7%.
What Are Prediction Market Probabilities?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket display percentages directly.
- Kalshi: A federally regulated US exchange where odds are driven by high-volume traders.
- Polymarket: A crypto-native platform that often sees more global, speculative volume.
- The Divergence: When Polymarket or Kalshi shows a higher percentage than the DraftKings implied probability, it suggests the “crowd” is more bullish than the bookmakers.
What Is the “Vig” and Why Sportsbook Odds Look Lower
If you add up the implied probabilities of all 32 teams on DraftKings, the total will exceed 100% (usually around 120-130%). This “overround” or vig is the bookmaker’s profit margin. Prediction markets typically have a much smaller “spread,” meaning the percentages are often a more “true” reflection of reality.
2027 Super Bowl Favorites — Top 10 Teams
LA Rams (+750) — Early Frontrunner
The Rams sit at the top of every board. Interestingly, while DraftKings implies an 11.7% chance, both Kalshi and Polymarket are more conservative at 9%. This suggests that the public might be overvaluing the Rams, or the “house” is shading this line lower due to heavy liability.
Seattle Seahawks (+950) — Prediction Markets’ Favorite ⚡
This is the most significant signal on the board. While DraftKings has them at +950 (9.5% implied), Polymarket traders have them at 11%. This “⚡” indicates a sharp discrepancy; the decentralized market believes Seattle is the true team to beat, providing potential value for those betting the +950 line now.
Buffalo Bills & Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
The AFC heavyweights are locked in a dead heat. Both prediction markets are slightly more skeptical of Baltimore (5-6%) compared to Buffalo (7-8%), suggesting the Bills may have a clearer path through the postseason in the eyes of traders.
Kansas City Chiefs (+1400) — Dynasty Discount?
Seeing the Chiefs at #5 with +1400 odds is rare. Prediction markets are split: Kalshi is relatively bullish at 8%, while Polymarket is lower at 6%. If you believe in Mahomes, this +1400 price point is a historical outlier.
Biggest Discrepancies: Sportsbooks vs. Prediction Markets
| Team | DraftKings Odds (Implied %) | Polymarket Probability | The Gap |
| Seattle Seahawks | +950 (9.5%) | 11% | Market is +1.5% Bullish |
| Miami Dolphins | +30000 (0.33%) | 2% | 6x Probability Gap |
| NE Patriots | +1900 (5.0%) | 5% | Market Consensus |
Miami Dolphins – The 6x Gap
The most jarring number on the board is the Miami Dolphins. DraftKings has effectively written them off at +30000 ($<$1% chance). However, Polymarket traders are holding steady at 2%. While 2% is low, it is six times higher than the sportsbook’s assessment, suggesting a “lottery ticket” that the crowd isn’t ready to throw away yet.
2027 Super Bowl Dark Horses Worth Watching
- Houston Texans (+1800): A consensus pick across all platforms, with a steady 3-4% probability.
- Chicago Bears (+2500): Watch the internal market disagreement here. Kalshi (5%) is significantly more bullish than Polymarket (3%). This usually indicates that American-regulated traders (Kalshi) are seeing something the global crypto market (Polymarket) is missing.
Worst Super Bowl Odds for 2027
Arizona Cardinals (+40000)
The clear basement-dweller. With a probability of less than 1% across the board, the markets agree: Arizona is in full rebuild mode.
The “Stay Away” Tier
The New York Jets (+20000) and Cleveland Browns (+15000) show almost no support in prediction markets ($<$1%). Despite the “name brand” value, the crowd has zero confidence in these rosters for 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win the 2027 Super Bowl?
The LA Rams are the betting favorites at +750, though the Seattle Seahawks have the highest probability (11%) on prediction markets.
What are the best Super Bowl odds right now?
If you follow the “wisdom of the crowd,” the Seahawks at +950 and the Dolphins at +30000 represent the best value compared to market probabilities.
Is Polymarket legal for NFL betting in the US?
Polymarket is generally restricted for US-based IP addresses. US residents typically use Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated, for legal prediction market trading.
When does the 2026 NFL season start?
The season officially kicks off on Sunday, September 13, 2026.
How We Track These Odds
Our data is pulled daily from three distinct sources to provide a balanced view of the market:
- DraftKings: Representing the traditional “Sportsbook” view.
- Kalshi: Representing the US-regulated “Trader” view.
- Polymarket: Representing the global “Decentralized” view.
Disclaimer: This data is for informational purposes only. Odds and probabilities change in real-time. Please wager responsibly.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.