NFL Rushing Yards Props Week 5: Live Lines & Best Odds
Compare NFL rushing yards props by player, matchup, line and sportsbook price. Review recent carries and results against the displayed line, then open a player row for available game logs and book comparisons. Use the Longest Rush tab to research a player’s longest run separately.
Rushing yards research leans
Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.
Bhayshul Tuten
Rushing YardsOver leanOver 55.5 at -135
fanaticsL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixedPrevious five: 6.6 → latest five: 13 carries/game. Change: +97%.
See reasoning
Over lean · Research notes
4/5 over 55.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).
5/10 over 55.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.
6 quoted books: 55.5–58.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.
Previous five: 6.6 → latest five: 13 carries/game. Change: +97%.
Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.
- Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
- Workload spans 2025–2026.
- L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.
Jalen Hurts
Rushing YardsUnder leanUnder 29.5 at -115
draftkingsL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixedPrevious five: 5.8 → latest five: 4.8 carries/game. Change: -17.2%.
See reasoning
Under lean · Research notes
4/5 under 29.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).
5/10 under 29.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.
5 quoted books: 25.5–29.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.
Previous five: 5.8 → latest five: 4.8 carries/game. Change: -17.2%.
Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.
- Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
- Workload spans 2025–2026.
- L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.
Brock Purdy
Rushing YardsOver leanOver 15.5 at -150
fanaticsL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5Previous five: 4.6 → latest five: 4.4 carries/game. Change: -4.3%.
See reasoning
Over lean · Research notes
5/5 over 15.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).
8/10 over 15.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.
7 quoted books: 15.5–18.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.
Previous five: 4.6 → latest five: 4.4 carries/game. Change: -4.3%.
Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.
- Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
- Workload spans 2025–2026.
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.
How leans are selected
Standard passing, rushing and receiving L5/L10 use the latest qualifying regular-season games across the selected and previous seasons, newest first. Prior-team games count. Longest-play markets retain the qualifying-game policy shown on their board. Passing history excludes appearances without a pass attempt. Five games and at least 4 of the latest 5 results beating the exact selected threshold qualify a historical Over or Under lean. Pushes are not hits. L10, line comparison and workload are additional context, not requirements or exclusions. L10 fewer than 5/10 is flagged as conflicting, 5–7/10 as mixed, and 8–10/10 as supporting. Samples of 6–9 games show the actual denominator; missing games are never filled. Within each upcoming week, ranking uses L5 hits with additional credit for a better line than the median of at least three quoted books (0.5 for counts; 2.5 for yards), or a 10% workload change in the same direction. Workload compares the latest five qualifying games with the preceding five across seasons and teams. All ten games need numeric workload values; missing values are never filled or skipped to create a different sample. Season and team changes are disclosed as context. With five to nine games, the latest-five average is shown when complete; no change is calculated. A zero preceding-five average has no percentage change. Unavailable or opposing workload does not block a historical lean. Both sides qualifying at different lines produces no directional lean. Feed must be refreshed within 20 minutes; quotes known to be older than two hours are excluded. Historical leans are not projected win probabilities or calculated betting edges. Passing TD totals use this same historical Over/Under screen. Anytime TD and First TD scorer markets are separate and receive no automatic directional lean. Unsupported markets receive no automatic directional lean.
| Player & Matchup | Market | Over | Under | Carries L5 | L5 vs line | Rush D | Pick'em | CLEATZ Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Upcoming | ||||||||
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 95 | — | — | 19.8 | 2-3Median: 80 | #20 · 117.5 ypg | 95.5 Underdog94.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 13.8 → latest five: 19.8 carries/game. Change: +43.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Derrick Henry | 92.5 | — | — | 21.8 | 2-3Median: 89 | #1 · 47.7 ypg | 94.5 PrizePicks90.5 Underdog | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 20 → latest five: 21.8 carries/game. Change: +9%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Jonathan Taylor | 89.5 | — | — | 20.0 | 3-2Median: 92 | #17 · 112.8 ypg | 89.5 Underdog88.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 20.8 → latest five: 20 carries/game. Change: -3.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Bijan Robinson | 83.5 | — | — | 20.0 | 2-3Median: 83 | #10 · 100 ypg | 83.5 Underdog83.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 20 → latest five: 20 carries/game. Change: 0%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Jaylen Warren | 76.5 | — | — | 13.8 | 2-3Median: 66 | #27 · 131 ypg | 76.5 Underdog | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 11.2 → latest five: 13.8 carries/game. Change: +23.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| James Cook | 75.5 | -113Novig | -113Novig | 14.4 | 2-3Median: 75 | #11 · 102 ypg | 75.5 Underdog75.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides |
No clear lean · Research notesOver 75.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 75.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 21.6 → latest five: 14.4 carries/game. Change: -33.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Javonte Williams | 73.5 | -108Novig | -111Novig | 15.0 | 1-4Median: 54 | #3 · 78.5 ypg | 73.5 Underdog73.5 PrizePicks | Under lean73.5 (-111) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 under 73.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 73.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 70.5–73.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 15.6 → latest five: 15 carries/game. Change: -3.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Braelon Allen | 69.5 | -108Novig | -113Novig | 7.4 | 0-5Median: 26 | #18 · 113.3 ypg | 69.5 Underdog69.5 PrizePicks | Under lean70.5 (-110) · fanaticsHistorical L5 trendL5 5/5 · Available 8/8 |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 5/5 under 70.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/8 under 70.5; 0 pushes. 8 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 69.5–70.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 7.4 carries/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Kyren Williams | 69.5 | -113Novig | -113Novig | 13.2 | 3-2Median: 80 | #19 · 116 ypg | 69.5 Underdog69.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides |
No clear lean · Research notesOver 69.5 3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 71.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 15.4 → latest five: 13.2 carries/game. Change: -14.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| D'Andre Swift | 65.5 | — | — | 15.8 | 2-3Median: 58 | #29 · 139.3 ypg | — | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 14.2 → latest five: 15.8 carries/game. Change: +11.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Chase Brown | 64.5 | — | — | 14.2 | 2-3Median: 61 | #15 · 109 ypg | 64.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 14.8 → latest five: 14.2 carries/game. Change: -4.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Cameron Skattebo | 63 | — | — | 14.2 | 1-4Median: 58 | #6 · 93.5 ypg | 62.5 Underdog63.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 17 → latest five: 14.2 carries/game. Change: -16.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Aaron Jones | 62.5 | — | — | 18.0 | 2-3Median: 58 | #26 · 128.7 ypg | 62.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 12.4 → latest five: 18 carries/game. Change: +45.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Jeremiyah Love | 62.5 | — | — | 13.8in line with season | 2-2Median: 52 | #21 · 119.8 ypg | 62.5 PrizePicks | Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games |
Insufficient history · Research notesFeed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Emanuel Wilson | 60.5 | -114PIN | -114PIN | 14.2 | 2-3Median: 44 | #9 · 99.8 ypg | 60.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides |
No clear lean · Research notesOver 60.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 60.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 5.2 → latest five: 14.2 carries/game. Change: +173.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Ashton Jeanty | 60 | — | — | 20.8 | 2-3Median: 58 | #14 · 104 ypg | 61.5 Underdog58.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 14.8 → latest five: 20.8 carries/game. Change: +40.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Quinshon Judkins | 59.5 | -111Novig | -113Novig | 13.4 | 1-4Median: 33 | #25 · 123.5 ypg | 58.5 PrizePicks57.5 Underdog | Under lean60.5 (-125) · fanaticsL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5 |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 under 60.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 60.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 57.5–60.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 16.4 → latest five: 13.4 carries/game. Change: -18.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| J.K. Dobbins | 59.5 | — | — | 12.8 | 1-4Median: 40 | #22 · 121.8 ypg | 59.5 Underdog59.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 15.6 → latest five: 12.8 carries/game. Change: -17.9%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Bhayshul Tuten | 58.5 | -113Novig | -110DK | 13.0 | 4-1Median: 66 | #23 · 122 ypg | 58.5 Underdog57.5 PrizePicks | Over lean55.5 (-135) · fanaticsL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed |
Over lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 over 55.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 over 55.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 55.5–58.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 6.6 → latest five: 13 carries/game. Change: +97%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Jacory Merritt | 57.5 | — | — | 13.8 | 1-4Median: 36 | #16 · 109 ypg | — | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 9.6 → latest five: 13.8 carries/game. Change: +43.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Bucky Irving | 56.5 | -114FD | -110HRB | 16.4 | 3-2Median: 61 | #31 · 150.3 ypg | 56.5 Underdog57.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides |
No clear lean · Research notesOver 55.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 57.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 15.2 → latest five: 16.4 carries/game. Change: +7.9%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Christian McCaffrey | 53.5 | -111Novig | -111Novig | 11.6 | 2-3Median: 52 | #12 · 102 ypg | 53.5 Underdog55.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides |
No clear lean · Research notesOver 53.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 53.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 22 → latest five: 11.6 carries/game. Change: -47.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Tony Pollard | 48.5 | — | — | 13.6 | 2-3Median: 48 | #4 · 83.8 ypg | 48.5 PrizePicks45.5 Underdog | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 17.6 → latest five: 13.6 carries/game. Change: -22.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| David Montgomery | 44.5 | — | — | 11.0 | 1-4Median: 33 | #24 · 122.8 ypg | 44.5 Underdog44.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 7 → latest five: 11 carries/game. Change: +57.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Omarion Hampton | 42.5 | — | — | 14.6 | 4-1Median: 45 | #30 · 142.8 ypg | 42.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 13.6 → latest five: 14.6 carries/game. Change: +7.4%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Ollie Gordon | 37.5 | — | — | 7.6 | 2-3Median: 9 | #8 · 99.5 ypg | 37.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 4 → latest five: 7.6 carries/game. Change: +90%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Josh Allen | 36.5 | -113Novig | -112CZR | 8.0 | 1-4Median: 23 | #11 · 102 ypg | 36.5 PrizePicks | Under lean37.5 (-112) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 under 37.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 under 37.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 36.5–37.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 8 → latest five: 8 carries/game. Change: 0%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Brian Robinson | 32.5 | — | — | 9.2 | 3-2Median: 50 | #10 · 100 ypg | 32.5 PrizePicks32.5 Underdog | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 6.6 → latest five: 9.2 carries/game. Change: +39.4%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Blake Corum | 31.5 | -113Novig | -113Novig | 9.2 | 3-2Median: 54 | #19 · 116 ypg | 31.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides |
No clear lean · Research notesOver 29.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 31.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 10 → latest five: 9.2 carries/game. Change: -8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Malik Willis | 30.5 | — | — | 5.6 | 3-2Median: 39 | #8 · 99.5 ypg | 30.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Latest five: 5.6 carries/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Jalen Hurts | 26.5 | -113Novig | -111Novig | 4.8 | 1-4Median: 18 | #2 · 74.3 ypg | 26.5 Underdog26.5 PrizePicks | Under lean29.5 (-115) · draftkingsL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 under 29.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 29.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 25.5–29.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 5.8 → latest five: 4.8 carries/game. Change: -17.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Deshaun Watson | 26.5 | -113Novig | -113Novig | 7.8in line with season | 2-2Median: 30 | #25 · 123.5 ypg | 26.5 PrizePicks26.5 Underdog | Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games |
Insufficient history · Research notesFeed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Drake Maye | 24.5 | — | — | 5.6 | 3-2Median: 41 | #28 · 134.5 ypg | 24.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 5.6 → latest five: 5.6 carries/game. Change: 0%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Justin Herbert | 20.5 | — | — | 4.8 | 3-2Median: 29 | #30 · 142.8 ypg | 20.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 5.2 → latest five: 4.8 carries/game. Change: -7.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 19.5 | -222B365 | — | 8.4 | 4-1Median: 35 | #23 · 122 ypg | 25.5 Underdog25.5 PrizePicks | Over lean19.5 (-222) · bet365Historical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5 |
Over lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 over 19.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 19.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 1 quoted books: 19.5–19.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 11.4 → latest five: 8.4 carries/game. Change: -26.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Kyler Murray | 19.5 | — | — | 3.8 | 2-3Median: 17 | #26 · 128.7 ypg | 19.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Latest five: 3.8 carries/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| George Holani | 19.5 | -114PIN | -114PIN | 4.8 | 1-4Median: 13 | #9 · 99.8 ypg | 19.5 PrizePicks | Under lean19.5 (-114) · pinnacleHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5 |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 under 19.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 19.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 2 quoted books: 19.5–19.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 2 → latest five: 4.8 carries/game. Change: +140%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Brock Purdy | 18.5 | -109DK | -113Novig | 4.4 | 5-0Median: 29 | #12 · 102 ypg | 18.5 PrizePicks | Over lean15.5 (-150) · fanaticsL5 trend + better available lineL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5 |
Over lean · Research notesRecent results 5/5 over 15.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 15.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 15.5–18.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 4.6 → latest five: 4.4 carries/game. Change: -4.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Tyler Goodson | 16.5 | -113Novig | -110HRB | 2.6 | 1-4Median: 9 | #3 · 78.5 ypg | 16.5 PrizePicks16.5 Underdog | Under lean17.5 (-115) · pinnacleHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 9/10 · L10 supports L5 |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 under 17.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 9/10 under 17.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 16.5–17.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 0.6 → latest five: 2.6 carries/game. Change: +333.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Trevor Lawrence | 13.5 | -113Novig | -108DK | 2.6 | 1-4Median: 6 | #23 · 122 ypg | 13.5 Underdog13.5 PrizePicks | Under lean15.5 (-150) · fanaticsL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 4/10 · L10 conflicts with L5 |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 under 15.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 4/10 under 15.5; 0 pushes. L10 conflicts with L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 13.5–15.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 5.2 → latest five: 2.6 carries/game. Change: -50%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Justice Hill | 13.5 | — | — | 2.8 | 2-3Median: 6 | #1 · 47.7 ypg | 13.5 PrizePicks13.5 Underdog | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 2 → latest five: 2.8 carries/game. Change: +40%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Cameron Ward | 12.5 | — | — | 3.0 | 2-3Median: 11 | #4 · 83.8 ypg | 11.5 PrizePicks12.5 Underdog | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 2 → latest five: 3 carries/game. Change: +50%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Bo Nix | 12.5 | — | — | 4.4 | 1-4Median: 7 | #22 · 121.8 ypg | 12.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 5 → latest five: 4.4 carries/game. Change: -12%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| C.J. Stroud | 11.5 | — | — | 2.2 | 3-2Median: 12 | #24 · 122.8 ypg | 11.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 3.4 → latest five: 2.2 carries/game. Change: -35.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Tyjae Spears | 11.5 | — | — | 3.6 | 3-2Median: 12 | #4 · 83.8 ypg | 11.5 Underdog11.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 6.4 → latest five: 3.6 carries/game. Change: -43.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Isaiah Davis | 11.5 | -113Novig | -110HRB | 1.2 | 0-5Median: 0 | #18 · 113.3 ypg | 11.5 PrizePicks | Under lean12.5 (-112) · draftkingsL5 trend + workload supportL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5 |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 5/5 under 12.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 12.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 10.5–12.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 3.4 → latest five: 1.2 carries/game. Change: -64.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Geno Smith | 10.5 | -111DK | -105FAN | 2.8 | 2-3Median: 7 | #18 · 113.3 ypg | 10.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides |
No clear lean · Research notesOver 10.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 11.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 2 → latest five: 2.8 carries/game. Change: +40%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Dak Prescott | 9.5 | -106Novig | -102Novig | 2.8 | 3-2Median: 14 | #3 · 78.5 ypg | 9.5 PrizePicks9.5 Underdog | No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides |
No clear lean · Research notesOver 9.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 10.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 2.6 → latest five: 2.8 carries/game. Change: +7.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Kenneth Gainwell | 9.5 | -113Novig | +106Novig | 3.6 | 3-2Median: 10 | #31 · 150.3 ypg | 10.5 PrizePicks9.5 Underdog | Under lean11.5 (-115) · betmgmL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 4/10 · L10 conflicts with L5 |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 under 11.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 4/10 under 11.5; 0 pushes. L10 conflicts with L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 9.5–11.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 7.6 → latest five: 3.6 carries/game. Change: -52.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Jacoby Brissett | 7.5 | — | — | 3.6 | 3-2Median: 14 | #21 · 119.8 ypg | 7.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 2.2 → latest five: 3.6 carries/game. Change: +63.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Joe Burrow | 6.5 | — | — | 2.6 | 3-2Median: 13 | #15 · 109 ypg | 6.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 2 → latest five: 2.6 carries/game. Change: +30%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Daniel Jones | 6.5 | — | — | 2.4 | 1-4Median: 4 | #17 · 112.8 ypg | 8.5 PrizePicks10.5 Underdog | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 3 → latest five: 2.4 carries/game. Change: -20%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Jordan Love | 5.5 | — | — | 1.6 | 1-4Median: 0 | #13 · 102.5 ypg | 5.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 1.6 carries/game. Change: -42.9%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Sam Darnold | 5.5 | -108CZR | -120FAN | 2.6 | 2-3Median: 5 | #9 · 99.8 ypg | 5.5 PrizePicks | Under lean6.5 (-120) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed |
Under lean · Research notesRecent results 4/5 under 6.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 6.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 4.5–6.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 2.2 → latest five: 2.6 carries/game. Change: +18.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Malik Washington | 3.5 | — | — | 1.4 | 3-2Median: 4 | #8 · 99.5 ypg | 3.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 0.4 → latest five: 1.4 carries/game. Change: +250%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2.5 | — | — | 1.6 | 2-3Median: -1 | #10 · 100 ypg | 2.5 PrizePicks2.5 Underdog | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 2.2 → latest five: 1.6 carries/game. Change: -27.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Kirk Cousins | 0.5 | — | — | 3.0 | 2-3Median: 0 | #14 · 104 ypg | 0.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 1.2 → latest five: 3 carries/game. Change: +150%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Jared Goff | 0.5 | — | — | 1.8 | 3-2Median: 2 | #20 · 117.5 ypg | 0.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 1.4 → latest five: 1.8 carries/game. Change: +28.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
| Matthew Stafford | 0.5 | — | — | 2.4 | 3-2Median: 3 | #19 · 116 ypg | 0.5 PrizePicks | No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available |
No clear lean · Research notesHistorical workload Previous five: 0.8 → latest five: 2.4 carries/game. Change: +200%. Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. | ||||||||
Longest Rush
Best available number, then best price at that number. Compare all quoted lines below.
Longest Rush research leans
Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.
Javonte Williams
Rushing LongestRushUnder leanUnder 16.5 at -127
draftkingsL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixedPrevious five: 15.6 → latest five: 15 opportunities/game. Change: -3.8%.
See reasoning
Under lean · Research notes
4/5 under 16.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).
7/10 under 16.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.
3 quoted books: 15.5–16.5. No qualifying line advantage.
Previous five: 15.6 → latest five: 15 opportunities/game. Change: -3.8%.
Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.
- Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
- Workload spans 2025–2026.
- L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.
History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.
Kenneth Gainwell
Rushing LongestRushOver leanOver 5.5 at -110
draftkingsL5 4/5 · L10 9/10 · L10 supports L5Previous five: 7.6 → latest five: 3.8 opportunities/game. Change: -50%.
See reasoning
Over lean · Research notes
4/5 over 5.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).
9/10 over 5.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.
3 quoted books: 5.5–5.5. No qualifying line advantage.
Previous five: 7.6 → latest five: 3.8 opportunities/game. Change: -50%.
Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.
- Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
- Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for TB and PIT; team changes may affect usage.
- Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.
History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.
Bucky Irving
Rushing LongestRushUnder leanUnder 13.5 at -106
draftkingsL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixedPrevious five: 15.2 → latest five: 16.4 opportunities/game. Change: +7.9%.
See reasoning
Under lean · Research notes
4/5 under 13.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).
7/10 under 13.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.
3 quoted books: 13.5–13.5. No qualifying line advantage.
Previous five: 15.2 → latest five: 16.4 opportunities/game. Change: +7.9%.
Feed snapshot: Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.
- Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
- Workload spans 2025–2026.
- L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.
History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.
How leans are selected
Standard passing, rushing and receiving L5/L10 use the latest qualifying regular-season games across the selected and previous seasons, newest first. Prior-team games count. Longest-play markets retain the qualifying-game policy shown on their board. Passing history excludes appearances without a pass attempt. Five games and at least 4 of the latest 5 results beating the exact selected threshold qualify a historical Over or Under lean. Pushes are not hits. L10, line comparison and workload are additional context, not requirements or exclusions. L10 fewer than 5/10 is flagged as conflicting, 5–7/10 as mixed, and 8–10/10 as supporting. Samples of 6–9 games show the actual denominator; missing games are never filled. Within each upcoming week, ranking uses L5 hits with additional credit for a better line than the median of at least three quoted books (0.5 for counts; 2.5 for yards), or a 10% workload change in the same direction. Workload compares the latest five qualifying games with the preceding five across seasons and teams. All ten games need numeric workload values; missing values are never filled or skipped to create a different sample. Season and team changes are disclosed as context. With five to nine games, the latest-five average is shown when complete; no change is calculated. A zero preceding-five average has no percentage change. Unavailable or opposing workload does not block a historical lean. Both sides qualifying at different lines produces no directional lean. Feed must be refreshed within 20 minutes; quotes known to be older than two hours are excluded. Historical leans are not projected win probabilities or calculated betting edges. Passing TD totals use this same historical Over/Under screen. Anytime TD and First TD scorer markets are separate and receive no automatic directional lean. Unsupported markets receive no automatic directional lean.
No players match these filters.
Week 5 · Upcoming
Longest-play chart, game log & books
Longest-play chart, game log & books
Longest-play chart, game log & books
Longest-play chart, game log & books
L5/L10 compare the most recent qualifying completed games with the displayed current line, not historical betting results. Sample: at least one carry per game; current and previous seasons, including playoffs. Pushes are shown separately within the sample. Missing stats are excluded. History: ESPN game logs, player IDs: nflverse. Odds: SGO. Historical frequency is not a forecast. Opponent explosive rates are not included in this release.
How to compare NFL rushing props
- Compare rushing yards thresholds and Over/Under prices together. The best available number and the best payout may belong to different books.
- Read recent carries alongside yardage history. Check for changes in backfield role, injuries and game situation before relying on the earlier sample.
- Keep total rushing yards separate from longest rush. One measures the game total; the other depends on a single play and uses the history policy shown on its own board.
Reading the history and research signals
L5 and L10 refer to recent qualifying game samples, which can span seasons and teams. They compare past results with the displayed current line; they are not a record of bets placed at historical odds. A historical lean requires at least four of the latest five results to beat its selected threshold, plus the sample and freshness requirements in the methodology. L10 and workload add context; the hit rate is not a forecast probability.
Check the displayed update time. Cached prices may change or be unavailable when you reach a sportsbook. Missing data is not a zero result.
Rushing props FAQ
What is the difference between rushing yards and longest rush props?
Rushing yards props use a player’s total rushing yardage in the game. Longest rush props use the yardage of the player’s longest rushing play. Compare each market with its own line and history.
Does a rushing yards lean account for an injury or a new role?
The automated screen uses qualifying historical results, available prices and workload context. It does not make an injury or opponent adjustment. Review the player’s current role separately.
21+. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds and lines are subject to change; always confirm the current price at your sportsbook before betting.
Lines and best-price data are aggregated across sportsbooks and refreshed throughout the day. CLEATZ provides information and analysis, not betting advice.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ and has worked in the online sports betting industry since 2012. At CLEATZ, he focuses on public betting data, sportsbook line movement, prediction markets and data-driven sports betting tools.