2026 NFL MVP Odds: Live Favorites & Market Comparison
The 2026 NFL MVP race is already taking shape, and CLEATZ tracks the latest MVP odds across both traditional sportsbooks and prediction markets.
Compare each candidate’s best available sportsbook odds with live probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket. CLEATZ converts prediction-market prices into comparable American odds, highlights differences between sportsbook and market probabilities, and tracks movement and trading activity as the season develops.
Use the live board below to find the current NFL MVP favorites, best sportsbook prices and the biggest disagreements between the markets. Prices update throughout the day as the 2026 NFL MVP race changes.
2026 NFL MVP
Live win probability per candidate, compared with the best sportsbook price.
The 2026 NFL MVP market sits in a genuinely wide-open race, with the top tier compressed tightly around Josh Allen (11%), Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson (both 10%), and a cluster of six candidates at 7% each—meaning the next tier down spans just four percentage points. Allen holds the slimmest edge as favorite, but there's no clear separation; you'd need the top three combined to eclipse one-third of total MVP probability. The flatness across the board over the past two weeks suggests we're still in an early-season holding pattern where conviction hasn't fully crystallized.
Volume tells an interesting story despite the price stability. Jordan Love draws the heaviest two-week trading at 736.4K, followed closely by Dak Prescott (696.6K) and Joe Burrow (607.6K)—suggesting these names are drawing active debate and repositioning even as their probabilities haven't budged. Allen, the nominal favorite, sits mid-pack at 380.7K in volume, which might indicate traders see his odds as fairly priced and are focusing energy elsewhere. Trevor Lawrence is the one notable mover, up 1 point to 4%, though his 520.1K volume is solid; that modest gain hints at some emerging conviction, though nowhere near enough to challenge the favorites.
The overall flatness and even distribution of heavy volume across multiple tiers tells you this market is pricing deep uncertainty about 2026 quarterback performance. No quarterback has yet pulled away, and no recent narrative seems to have shifted enough to move prices materially. Expect meaningful consolidation once the regular season delivers clarity on team performance and injury status.
| # | Outcome | Best book as of Sep 5 | Kalshi | Polymarket | Divergence | 14d Move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Burrow | +1000 FanDuel · 9.1% | 11% +809 fair | 10% | +1.9 | ▲ 1 | 608.1K |
| 2 | Josh Allen | +600 DraftKings · 14.3% | 11% +809 fair | 10% | −3.3 | — | 384.6K |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson | +1100 FanDuel · 8.3% | 10% +900 fair | 12% | +1.7 | — | 413.2K |
| 4 | Justin Herbert | +1100 FanDuel · 8.3% | 9% +1011 fair | 11% | +0.7 | — | 467.1K |
| 5 | Dak Prescott | +1300 FanDuel · 7.1% | 7% +1329 fair | 11% | −0.1 | — | 700K |
| 6 | Patrick Mahomes | +1700 FanDuel · 5.6% | 7% +1329 fair | 6% | +1.4 | — | 604.6K |
| 7 | Caleb Williams | +1400 FanDuel · 6.7% | 7% +1329 fair | 8% | +0.3 | — | 544.8K |
| 8 | Drake Maye Renner's 2027 NFL Draft scouting series: Arch Manning tops QB rankings,… CBS Sports Headlines · 2d | +1200 FanDuel · 7.7% | 7% +1329 fair | 9% | −0.7 | — | 448.2K |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford | +1400 DraftKings · 6.7% | 7% +1329 fair | 3% | +0.3 | — | 335K |
| 10 | Jordan Love | +2200 FanDuel · 4.3% | 5% +1900 fair | 3% | +0.7 | — | 738.4K |
| 11 | Brock Purdy | +1800 DraftKings · 5.3% | 5% +1900 fair | 3% | −0.3 | — | 416.8K |
| 12 | Trevor Lawrence | +2500 DraftKings · 3.8% | 4% +2400 fair | 2% | +0.2 | ▲ 1 | 520.2K |
| 13 | Jayden Daniels | +3000 FanDuel · 3.2% | 4% +2400 fair | — | +0.8 | — | 155.7K |
| 14 | Jared Goff | +3500 DraftKings · 2.8% | 3% +3233 fair | 1% | +0.2 | — | 614.4K |
| 15 | Bo Nix | +3500 DraftKings · 2.8% | 3% +3233 fair | 2% | +0.2 | — | 497K |
| 16 | Jalen Hurts | +2800 DraftKings · 3.4% | 3% +3233 fair | 3% | −0.4 | — | 448.7K |
| 17 | Sam Darnold | +3000 FanDuel · 3.2% | 3% +3233 fair | 1% | −0.2 | — | 151.1K |
| 18 | Kyler Murray | +4000 DraftKings · 2.4% | 2% +4900 fair | — | −0.4 | — | 500.1K |
| 19 | Jaxson Dart | +7500 FanDuel · 1.3% | 2% +4900 fair | 1% | +0.7 | — | 292.7K |
| 20 | Baker Mayfield | +4500 DraftKings · 2.2% | 2% +4900 fair | 1% | −0.2 | — | 243.1K |
| 21 | CJ Stroud | +5500 FanDuel · 1.8% | 2% +4900 fair | — | +0.2 | — | 81.8K |
| 22 | Cam Ward | — | 2% +4900 fair | — | — | — | 33K |
| 23 | Tyler Shough | +9000 DraftKings · 1.1% | 1% +9900 fair | — | −0.1 | ▼ 1 | 1.2M |
| 24 | Jahmyr Gibbs | +4500 FanDuel · 2.2% | 1% +9900 fair | 1% | −1.2 | — | 305.2K |
| 25 | Daniel Jones | +17500 FanDuel · 0.6% | 1% +9900 fair | — | +0.4 | — | 258.6K |
| 26 | Aaron Rodgers | +10000 DraftKings · 1.0% | 1% +9900 fair | — | +0.0 | — | 198.9K |
| 27 | Bijan Robinson | +10000 DraftKings · 1.0% | 1% +9900 fair | 0% | +0.0 | — | 97.3K |
| 28 | Bryce Young | +22500 FanDuel · 0.4% | 1% +9900 fair | — | +0.6 | — | 58.3K |
| 29 | Myles Garrett | — | 1% +9900 fair | 0% | — | — | 53.3K |
| 30 | JJ McCarthy | — | 1% +9900 fair | — | — | — | 38.1K |
| 31 | Christian McCaffrey | +17500 FanDuel · 0.6% | 1% +9900 fair | 0% | +0.4 | — | 32.2K |
| 32 | Jonathan Taylor | +10000 FanDuel · 1.0% | 1% +9900 fair | — | +0.0 | — | 24K |
| 33 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | — | 1% +9900 fair | 0% | — | — | 23.7K |
| 34 | Michael Penix Jr | — | 1% +9900 fair | — | — | — | 22.3K |
| 35 | Tua Tagovailoa | — | 1% +9900 fair | — | — | — | 12.9K |
| 36 | Ashton Jeanty | — | 1% +9900 fair | — | — | — | 11.2K |
| 37 | Puka Nacua | — | 1% +9900 fair | 0% | — | — | 10.5K |
| 38 | Ja'Marr Chase | +15000 FanDuel · 0.7% | 1% +9900 fair | — | +0.3 | — | 8.7K |
| 39 | Justin Jefferson | — | 1% +9900 fair | 0% | — | — | 8.1K |
| 40 | Tie/Co-Winners | — | 1% +9900 fair | — | — | — | 8K |
| 41 | Saquon Barkley | +17500 FanDuel · 0.6% | 1% +9900 fair | 0% | +0.4 | — | 7.2K |
| 42 | Josh Jacobs | — | 1% +9900 fair | — | — | — | 3.1K |
| 43 | A.J. Brown | — | 1% +9900 fair | — | — | — | 2.3K |
| 44 | CeeDee Lamb | — | 1% +9900 fair | — | — | — | 689 |
| 45 | Micah Parsons | — | 1% +9900 fair | — | — | — | 550 |
How to Read the CLEATZ NFL MVP Odds Tracker
The CLEATZ NFL MVP board combines traditional sportsbook futures with prediction-market probabilities so every candidate can be compared across multiple markets.
Rather than relying on a single sportsbook price, the tracker shows where sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket agree — and where they do not.
Best Sportsbook Odds
The Best Book column shows the strongest currently available sportsbook price CLEATZ tracks for each NFL MVP candidate.
The percentage beneath the American odds represents the sportsbook’s implied probability.
For example, odds of +900 correspond to an implied probability of 10%.
Futures prices can vary significantly across sportsbooks, making price comparison particularly important in a market where a candidate may remain open for several months.
Kalshi NFL MVP Probability
The Kalshi column shows the current market price for each candidate’s NFL MVP contract.
A contract priced around 10% represents a market-implied probability of approximately 10%.
CLEATZ also converts the probability into comparable fair American odds. A 10% probability is equivalent to approximately +900.
That fair-odds figure is a mathematical conversion for comparison purposes. It is not a sportsbook quote and does not include every potential fee or trading cost associated with executing a prediction-market position.
Polymarket NFL MVP Probability
The Polymarket column provides another prediction-market view of the NFL MVP race.
When Kalshi and Polymarket price a player similarly, the two markets broadly agree on that candidate’s probability.
When the prices separate, the difference becomes more interesting.
Different liquidity, traders, timing and market mechanics can produce different probabilities for the same candidate, which is why CLEATZ displays both markets rather than presenting a single prediction-market number.
What Does NFL MVP Odds Divergence Mean?
The Divergence column compares each candidate’s Kalshi probability with the implied probability of his best available sportsbook odds.
A positive divergence means Kalshi assigns the player a greater chance of winning MVP than the best sportsbook price implies.
A negative divergence means the sportsbook price implies a higher probability than Kalshi.
For example, imagine a candidate is available at +1000 at a sportsbook. Those odds imply approximately a 9.1% probability.
If Kalshi prices the same player at 12%, CLEATZ would show approximately +2.9 percentage points of divergence.
That does not automatically mean one market is wrong or that an arbitrage opportunity exists. Sportsbook margin, prediction-market fees, bid-ask spreads, liquidity and timing can all contribute to differences.
Instead, divergence identifies where sportsbooks and prediction markets disagree most about the NFL MVP race.
Those disagreements are often more informative than simply knowing which player is currently favored.
What Moves NFL MVP Odds?
NFL MVP futures can change significantly throughout the regular season.
Individual performance matters, particularly quarterback efficiency, touchdowns, turnovers and high-impact performances.
Team performance also matters. Recent MVP voting has heavily favored quarterbacks on teams near the top of the standings.
Injuries and availability can create some of the fastest changes in an MVP market because missing even a few games can materially affect a candidate’s season-long case.
Nationally watched games can also reshape expectations quickly when a candidate performs particularly well or poorly against another top team.
As the season progresses, each new week provides additional information. That is why CLEATZ tracks both the current MVP probability and market movement rather than treating preseason odds as a static prediction.
How Does NFL MVP Voting Work?
The Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player award is decided by a nationwide panel of 50 voters.
Each voter ranks five MVP candidates.
First place receives 10 points, followed by 5 points for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth and 1 for fifth.
Ballots are submitted before the playoffs, meaning the award reflects regular-season performance rather than postseason results.
The ranked-ballot format means MVP markets are forecasting more than raw statistics. Traders are also trying to anticipate how the voting panel will evaluate players at the end of the regular season.
Quarterbacks Dominate the NFL MVP Award
The modern NFL MVP has become overwhelmingly quarterback-driven.
A running back has not won the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012, and quarterbacks have won every MVP award since.
That history helps explain why quarterbacks occupy most of the shortest prices in NFL MVP futures markets.
A non-quarterback can still emerge as a serious contender, but recent history suggests the performance threshold is exceptionally high.
When evaluating longer-shot running backs, receivers or other positions, the historical voting pattern should be considered alongside their current market probability.
Who Won the NFL MVP Last Season?
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 AP NFL MVP award, narrowly defeating Drake Maye in one of the closest votes in award history.
Stafford received 24 first-place votes and finished with 366 points, while Maye received 23 first-place votes and finished with 361.
Josh Allen finished third.
The close result is a useful reminder that MVP probability can remain highly competitive even when one candidate enters the final weeks as a market favorite.
How to Use NFL MVP Market Movement
A current price tells you where the market stands today. Historical movement shows how expectations arrived there.
If a candidate moves from 4% to 10% over several weeks, the market has substantially increased its estimate of that player’s MVP chances.
The cause might be strong performances, improving team expectations, injuries to competing candidates or a combination of factors.
Movement is most useful when it can be connected to new information.
CLEATZ tracks historical MVP prices so changes in market expectations can be viewed alongside the current sportsbook, Kalshi and Polymarket numbers.
What Does NFL MVP Trading Volume Mean?
Trading volume measures how much activity has occurred in a prediction-market contract.
Higher volume indicates a more actively traded market and can provide useful context when evaluating the displayed price.
Volume does not indicate which candidate traders are more confident will win. Every completed contract has participants taking opposite sides of the outcome.
It also should not be described as “sharp money” or public betting volume unless the underlying data specifically supports those conclusions.
CLEATZ displays volume primarily as a measure of market activity and liquidity context.
2026 NFL MVP Odds FAQ
Who is favored to win the 2026 NFL MVP?
The NFL MVP favorite changes as sportsbook and prediction-market prices move throughout the season. The live CLEATZ rankings above show the latest candidates based on current market probability rather than relying on a static list published earlier in the season.
What are NFL MVP odds?
NFL MVP odds represent the market price for a player to win the Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player award.
Sportsbooks typically display the market using American odds such as +700, while prediction markets commonly display prices as probabilities.
Who won NFL MVP in 2025?
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford won the 2025 AP NFL MVP award, finishing with 366 voting points to Drake Maye’s 361.
How is NFL MVP decided?
A nationwide panel of 50 Associated Press voters ranks five candidates. First through fifth place receive 10, 5, 3, 2 and 1 points respectively.
Voting takes place before the playoffs, so postseason performance does not determine the award.
What does Kalshi’s NFL MVP percentage mean?
A Kalshi price of 12% represents a market-implied probability of approximately 12% that the candidate wins the award.
It does not mean 12% of bets or 12% of dollars are backing that player.
Are Kalshi MVP prices the same as sportsbook odds?
No.
Kalshi operates a prediction market, while sportsbooks post traditional fixed odds. CLEATZ converts the Kalshi probability into comparable American-style fair odds so the two markets are easier to evaluate side by side.
What is NFL MVP odds divergence?
CLEATZ divergence measures the difference between a candidate’s Kalshi probability and the implied probability of his best available sportsbook odds.
Positive divergence means Kalshi is more bullish. Negative divergence means the sportsbook odds imply a higher probability.
Why do NFL MVP odds differ between sportsbooks?
Each sportsbook can maintain a different price based on market activity, risk and its own trading decisions.
Because MVP is a long-term futures market, differences between books can sometimes be substantial.
Can a non-quarterback win NFL MVP?
Yes, but recent history heavily favors quarterbacks. Adrian Peterson in 2012 was the last non-quarterback to win the award.
How often do CLEATZ NFL MVP odds update?
The CLEATZ NFL MVP board updates throughout the day as new sportsbook and prediction-market prices become available. Check the live timestamp for the most recent refresh.
