Complete comparison, expert explanation, legality, and how to choose the right prediction markets.
Prediction markets, also called event markets, idea futures, or information markets, let you buy and sell contracts tied to future event outcomes, from elections to the Super Bowl, economic indicators, pop culture moments, or weather metrics. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, these platforms create dynamic prices based on real-time market sentiment, often reflecting the collective forecast of traders.
What Is a Prediction Market App?
Prediction markets are exchange-style platforms where each contract’s price reflects the estimated probability of an event occurring. For example, if a contract trading whether “Team X wins next week” is priced at $0.65, the implied probability is 65%. If the event happens, winning contracts settle at $1; if not, they expire worthless.
Key difference vs. traditional sportsbooks:
| Feature | Prediction Market | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Market type | Peer-to-peer price discovery | House-set odds |
| Pricing | Market-driven | Fixed odds |
| Outcome settlement | $1 per winning contract | Variable payouts |
| Fee model | Trading fees / spread | Vig (juice) |
This model attracts strategies ranging from probabilistic forecasting to arbitrage and hedging. More details here on Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting.
Prediction Markets Intelligence Report Today
Following the Money — April 20, 2026 — Intelligence Report
$60B year-to-date, a $15B valuation & 48 hours to ceasefire expiry
Prediction markets have officially surpassed $60 billion in year-to-date volume, putting the industry on track to hit Bernstein’s projected $240 billion annual milestone. Today’s action is defined by a countdown to potential chaos in the Middle East, sharp vs. public conflict over a revamped Cleveland roster, and a $15 billion valuation that signals institutional capital is no longer waiting for legal clarity to enter the space. Track live odds across every top platform using our Polymarket promo code guide and our Kalshi page.
Market 1
🏀 NBA Playoffs: The Harden-Cleveland factor Game 2 Tonight
The NBA Playoffs are in full swing, and today’s most analytically interesting market is the Raptors vs. Cavaliers Game 2. This is a rare case where the sharp money is not on the favorite—it’s inside it.
Cleveland enters as a -355 moneyline favorite and the public is hammering Donovan Mitchell’s Over 27.5 points. But the high-limit sharp wallets are making a different play entirely: since the February 2026 trade for James Harden, Mitchell’s usage rate has dropped materially. The “Twin Towers” lineup of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen has shifted primary ball-handling to Harden, making the Harden Over 7.5 Assists ($0.68) the smart-money entry. This is exactly the kind of structural market inefficiency that prediction platforms surface faster than traditional sportsbooks—and a core reason why platform contract depth matters when choosing from our best prediction market apps list.
In the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder have solidified as the “market lock” to reach the Finals, with 69% conviction. Their 43% championship odds make them the clear consensus title favorite on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with the gap to the next-closest team widening through Round 1.
Market 2
🌍 Geopolitics: The 48-hour ceasefire clock Countdown
The most liquid trade in the world today is the April 22 ceasefire expiration. The two-week diplomatic pause initiated on April 8 expires in 48 hours, and the market has largely priced out the peaceful resolution scenario.
The probability of a permanent ceasefire by May 1 has fallen to 14%, down from 41% just last week. The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains a full stalemate, with WTI Crude holding stubbornly in the $95–$100 range. Whale positioning data suggests a “Gap Up” scenario toward $120 is the consensus among high-conviction traders if Wednesday passes without a formal extension. Compare live ceasefire and oil contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi for any cross-platform pricing divergence.
Bitcoin is trading at $71,200 with the $84K bull target sentiment having collapsed. Traders are now actively using BTC as a geopolitical hedge, with “Down to $65K” contracts hitting a 70% conviction rate as the war premium reasserts. This is a significant inversion from the “$140K by year-end” narrative that dominated just two weeks ago.
Market 3
⚖️ Regulatory & industry: The $15B valuation signal Breaking
This morning’s most consequential industry development is the breaking report that Polymarket is seeking to raise $400 million at a $15 billion valuation. This follows Kalshi’s $1 billion raise in March—two blockbuster fundraises in under 60 days signal that institutional capital is no longer waiting for legal clarity to enter the prediction market space.
The “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act” continues to move through the Senate, with traders assigning a 38% probability of it passing in its current form—a version that would strip sports and “casino-style” events from regulated U.S. exchanges. At 38%, the bill is a material risk, not a fringe scenario. The $15B valuation is partially a bet that institutional momentum makes the bill politically unpassable. The CFTC and the Commodity Exchange Act preemption framework remain the industry’s primary legal shield.
Following the April 16 oral arguments, the market for a pro-industry ruling from the Ninth Circuit has jumped to 74%, as legal analysts bet the panel will follow the 3rd Circuit’s federal preemption precedent. A ruling in the 74% direction would effectively end the Nevada Gaming Control Board’s ability to block platform expansion—a watershed moment for every app on this list.
Market 4
📉 Finance: The stagflation hedge Macro
The macro picture has shifted decisively toward a “stagflation” read—sticky inflation meeting geopolitical energy risk—and prediction market probabilities are pricing that combination with unusual precision.
Following last week’s 3.3% CPI print, markets are now pricing a 52% chance of zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026—up from 40% just last week. Gold is holding firm at $4,850, with institutional traders waiting for Wednesday’s ceasefire expiration before entering new long positions toward the $5,000 war-premium mark. The stagflation combination—elevated inflation plus energy-driven recession risk—is the rare macro environment where prediction market contracts on both rate decisions and commodity prices carry meaningful simultaneous value. Track live Fed probability data on Kalshi and Polymarket for real-time reads on how the market is pricing Wednesday’s outcome into rate expectations.
Whale Tracker
🐳 Cleatz whale tracker — April 20 update High-Conviction Collision
Two of our top three tracked wallets are making maximum-conviction bets that directly contradict each other. Live activity tracked across Polymarket and Kalshi.
| Wallet alias | Last move | Market | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Diplomat | BOUGHT $5.2M Buy | HOOD / COIN Equity | Betting the $15B Polymarket valuation news shields the sector from regulatory blowback and drives Robinhood and Coinbase equity contracts higher. |
| The General | BOUGHT $2.1M Buy | WTI $120 Calls | Doubling down on the ceasefire expiration play. All remaining PNL on oil returning to $120+ by Friday. |
| 0xbc…11A2 | BOUGHT $800K Buy | Harden Over 7.5 AST | Aligning with the sharp shift in Cleveland’s usage data. Tracking the same structural edge as the high-limit wallets. |
Top Prediction Market Apps Comparison
| # | Platform | Fees (7d) | Distribution | vs Prior Period |
|---|
Below is a detailed comparison of the leading prediction market apps available in the U.S. (with availability and features):
| App | Event Types | Liquidity & Volume | Major Strengths | Regulation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Promo Code | Politics, Econ, Sports, Culture | High | Regulated, broad events, strong liquidity | CFTC regulated |
| Polymarket promo Code | Sports, Culture, Crypto | Very High (Global leader) | Tight spreads, decentralized roots | Partial U.S. availability |
| Robinhood Markets | Sports, Politics | Moderate | Integrated with trading app | Regulated |
| Underdog Predict | Sports, futures | Low | Fast growing | CFTC-linked |
| Novig | Politics, Econ, Sports | Variable | Sports | Regulatory transition |
| Coinbase Predict | Politics, Econ, Sports | Variable | Crypto | CFTC regulated |
CFTC-Regulated
All U.S. Prediction Markets
A complete tracker of every CFTC-regulated prediction market platform operating in the United States, organized by regulatory status.
Operating Through DCM License
15 platforms| # | Platform | Partner / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Kalshi | Direct DCM |
| 02 | Webull | Kalshi |
| 03 | ForecastEx | IBKR |
| 04 | Robinhood | KalshiIBKR |
| 05 | Crypto.com | — |
| 06 | Underdog Predict | — |
| 07 | PrizePicks Predict | Kalshi |
| 08 | Polymarket US | QCEX |
| 09 | Fanatics | Crypto.com |
| 10 | DraftKings Predict | CMECrypto.com |
| 11 | Gemini Predictions | — |
| 12 | FanDuel Predicts | CME |
| 13 | Coinbase Predict | Kalshi |
| 14 | OG | Crypto.com |
| 15 | Sleeper | Kalshi |
Operating With No-Action Letter
2 platforms| # | Platform | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Iowa Electronic Markets | — |
| 02 | PredictIt | — |
Coming Soon
21 platforms| # | Platform | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Bitnomial | — |
| 02 | Aristotle | — |
| 03 | RSBIX | — |
| 04 | Truth Predict | Crypto.com |
| 05 | Hollywood.com | Crypto.com |
| 06 | MyPrize | Crypto.com |
| 07 | Kraken | Small Exchange |
| 08 | ProphetX | — |
| 09 | eToro | ? |
| 10 | Cboe | — |
| 11 | Robinhood | MIAXdx |
| 12 | DraftKings Predict | Railbird |
| 13 | Metavesco | — |
| 14 | Matchbook | — |
| 15 | HighRoller Markets | Crypto.com |
| 16 | Novig | — |
| 17 | Sporttrade | — |
| 18 | PMEX | — |
| 19 | PredictCraft | — |
| 20 | Nasdaq | — |
| 21 | Betr | Polymarket |
Best Prediction Market Apps Explained
1. Kalsh: Best All-Around Regulated Market
Why it stands out:
- Federally licensed as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), giving it robust legal footing.
- Wide variety of event types from elections to economic data and sports.
- Growing volume and liquidity compared to competitors.
Who it’s best for: Traders who want regulated markets and deep selection.
2. Polymarket: Culture & High-Volume Trading
Key features:
- One of the largest global prediction markets, popular for both financial and cultural markets.
- Known for tight spreads and active volume across viral events.
- Strategic sports partnerships — e.g., exclusive deal with Major League Soccer (MLS).
Who it’s best for: Traders interested in trending news, pop culture, and sports speculation.
3. Robinhood Markets: Integrated & Simple
- Brings prediction markets directly within a consumer investment/trading app.
- Known for no-commission pricing on many event trades.
Who it’s best for: Traders or investors familiar with Robinhood’s UI and focused on sports & politics markets.
4. Underdog Predict: Sports-Focused
- Emerging options for sports prediction futures within larger ecosystem apps.
- Close partnerships with major sportsbooks and services expanding into prediction markets.
Who it’s best for: Sports bettors/traders who want prediction markets with sports event specialization.
Liquidity & Volume Metrics
Liquidity and volume distinguish serious prediction markets. Higher liquidity typically means tighter spreads and faster fills, especially around big events (e.g., Presidential elections or Super Bowl futures).
Approx. trading volume snapshot:
| Platform | Estimated Monthly Volume |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | ~$1.9B+ (sports heavy) |
| Kalshi | $4.4B+ (wide event mix) |
| Robinhood/Underdog | Variable, rising |
These figures show institutional and retail engagement in prediction markets far beyond early niches.
Legal & Regulatory Landscape (U.S.)
Prediction markets have seen high scrutiny and rapid development:
- CFTC regulation: Kalshi’s designation gives it strong oversight.
- Ongoing debates: Some regulators argue these markets operate like gambling.
- Sports betting expansion: Entities like FanDuel partnering with CME Group signal mainstream adoption
This means where and how you can trade may vary by state and platform. Always consult each platform’s legal disclosures.
Event Types You Can Trade
Most prediction markets categorize events into:
- Politics: Elections, primaries, policy outcomes.
- Economics: Inflation, jobs data, Fed decisions.
- Sports: Match winners, futures, MVP markets.
- Culture & media: Award winners, major news outcomes.
- Finance & commodities: Indices and price direction.
This breadth makes them more like financial markets than casual betting apps.
Expert Tips for Choosing an App
1. Liquidity matters: Higher liquidity = tighter pricing and easier trades.
2. Know your event focus: Some apps specialize (e.g., political markets), while others cover broad events.
3. Fees & spreads: Look at transaction costs, higher fees can erode returns.
4. Regulation: U.S. regulated markets often provide better legal clarity.
Transaction Fees:
Prediction market platforms can make their money on transaction fees or by leveraging the bid-ask spread. Fees can be variable based on how much you spend. The platform Kalshi usually charges $0.02 to buy a $0.40 contract and $1.68 to buy 100 $0.40 contracts. Competing platform Polymarket does not charge fees and instead earns on the difference between the bid price and the higher selling price. – YAHOO Finance
Prediction Markets FAQ
There’s debate. Some regulators treat them as gambling; others see them as forecasting markets with financial characteristics.
Availability varies by state and regulation. Roughly 48 states currently allow Prediction Markets, but check local laws and platform disclosures.
Prices typically reflect the implied chance of an outcome occurring. For example, a $0.80 price = ~80% chance.
Our Choice For Best Prediction Market Apps
| 🏆 Best Overall | 💰Best for Culture | 📊 Best for Integration | 🏈 Best for Sports Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Polymarket | Robinhood Markets | Underdog Predict |
Prediction markets are rapidly becoming a staple way to forecast the future and discover market consensus on major outcomes. Whether you’re focused on politics, sports, or economics, 2026 offers more choice and liquidity than ever before, and new entrants continue to expand the ecosystem.
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Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
