Complete comparison, expert explanation, legality, and how to choose the right prediction markets.
Prediction markets, also called event markets, idea futures, or information markets, let you buy and sell contracts tied to future event outcomes, from elections to the Super Bowl, economic indicators, pop culture moments, or weather metrics. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, these platforms create dynamic prices based on real-time market sentiment, often reflecting the collective forecast of traders.
What Is a Prediction Market App?
Prediction markets are exchange-style platforms where each contract’s price reflects the estimated probability of an event occurring. For example, if a contract trading whether “Team X wins next week” is priced at $0.65, the implied probability is 65%. If the event happens, winning contracts settle at $1; if not, they expire worthless.
Key difference vs. traditional sportsbooks:
| Feature | Prediction Market | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Market type | Peer-to-peer price discovery | House-set odds |
| Pricing | Market-driven | Fixed odds |
| Outcome settlement | $1 per winning contract | Variable payouts |
| Fee model | Trading fees / spread | Vig (juice) |
This model attracts strategies ranging from probabilistic forecasting to arbitrage and hedging. More details here on Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting.
Prediction Markets Intelligence Report Today
Following the Money — April 22, 2026 — Intelligence Report
Relief rally, NY AG bombshell & The General liquidated again
The industry is navigating a “Relief Rally” today. The front-end risk premium from the Iran ceasefire has evaporated following Trump’s formal extension announcement, triggering a volatility crush across energy, gold, and equity markets simultaneously. But a new legal front has opened in New York that every platform on this list is watching closely. Track live odds across all top platforms using our Polymarket promo code guide and our Kalshi page.
Market 1
🌍 Geopolitics: The Trump extension & the volatility crush Resolved
The 8:00 AM ET ceasefire deadline did not result in a return to hostilities. President Trump officially announced a formal extension, resolving the binary event that had driven a multi-day sell-off across commodities and risk assets. The “Ceasefire Extension” contract settled to 100% on both Polymarket and Kalshi, producing one of the largest single-contract settlement payouts of the year.
WTI Crude is falling sharply as the Hormuz risk premium deflates, currently trading at $88.85 (–0.91%). Brent is similarly down near $97. This is a direct compression of the war premium that had pushed WTI toward $105+ over the past week. The speed of the move is consistent with the market having been near-fully positioned for escalation—the extension caught the consensus wrong-footed.
Spot gold has dropped to $4,681, giving back the war-hedge premium accumulated earlier this week. The ceasefire settlement triggered a classic “volatility crush”—those holding short-dated options on gold saw implied volatility collapse sharply on resolution. The $5,000 target that institutional traders were watching as the next milestone has been pushed further out on the timeline.
Market 2
⚖️ Regulatory: New York vs. Coinbase & Gemini Bombshell
This morning’s most consequential industry development is a lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James against Coinbase (COIN) and Gemini, alleging they are operating “unlicensed prediction markets” constituting illegal gambling under state law.
The suit alleges that “event contracts” are quintessentially gambling and that both platforms failed to obtain NY State Gaming Commission licenses. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal has already signaled a fight, doubling down on the “Exclusive Federal Jurisdiction” argument under the Commodity Exchange Act that has been successful in both the 3rd and 9th Circuits. The core legal tension—federal preemption vs. state gaming authority—is now playing out on two simultaneous tracks for the second time this year.
In a striking strategic response to the lawsuit environment, both Kalshi and Polymarket have announced plans to launch cryptocurrency perpetual contracts (perps) in the U.S., leveraging Kalshi’s recent margin trading approval from the CFTC. The move directly challenges Coinbase’s core derivatives business on federally-regulated ground—a calculated escalation that reframes the narrative from “prediction markets facing state bans” to “federally approved exchanges expanding into crypto derivatives.”
Market 3
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Magic at Pistons — the Cade factor Tonight
Tonight’s sports trading focus is squarely on Detroit for Game 2 of the Magic vs. Pistons series. The market narrative isn’t about the team moneyline—it’s about a specific player prop that sharp wallets have identified as structurally mispriced.
Following a “belly flop” performance in Game 1, the sharp consensus is backing a Cade Cunningham bounce-back through the passing market rather than the scoring line. The Over 9.5 Assists at $0.64 is pricing a 64% probability of a high-assist performance—a bet on Cunningham returning to his primary ball-handling role as the Pistons adjust their Game 2 scheme. This is the exact type of intra-series prop adjustment that separates platforms with deep player prop infrastructure from those offering only moneylines. Compare prop depth across platforms in our best prediction market apps reviews.
Oklahoma City remains the mathematical title favorite at approximately 40%, followed by the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics. The Pistons—despite being 9.5-point home favorites tonight—remain a long-shot on the championship board. Track live futures odds cross-platform on Polymarket and Kalshi for any pricing gaps between platforms as the first round progresses.
Market 4
📈 Finance: The risk-on rebound & the Warsh fight Macro
Equity markets are in full risk-on mode as the war discount is removed from asset prices in real time. The VIX is crushing, and S&P futures are pointing sharply higher ahead of the open.
Equity futures are pointing significantly higher (+0.56%) as traders unwind the geopolitical risk premium that had compressed valuations through last week. The VIX is falling nearly 2% to 20.60—a classic “volatility crush” signature when a well-telegraphed binary risk resolves constructively. The speed and magnitude of the move confirm that the market had been heavily positioned for the escalation scenario The General was betting on.
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation odds have slipped to 34% following his “Inflation is a choice” testimony—language that drew sharp pushback from Senate moderates. With Jerome Powell’s term ending May 15, the confirmation timeline is now compressed. A Warsh failure would directly reprice the Federal Clarity Act contract and the broader “pro-prediction-market Fed Chair” thesis that has been a significant tailwind for industry valuation. Watch this contract closely on Polymarket through the week.
Whale Tracker
🐳 Cleatz whale tracker — April 22 update The General Falls Again
The Diplomat has now produced what may be the single greatest monthly PNL run in the tracker’s history. Live activity tracked across Polymarket and Kalshi.
| Wallet alias | Last move | Market | Current status |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Diplomat | HODL Hold | S&P 500 / Ceasefire | WINNER +$42M Est. — Correctly called the extension. The ceasefire contract settled at 100%; S&P long is now printing as the war discount unwinds. |
| The General | LIQUIDATED Third Time | WTI $120 Calls | LOSER — His third major liquidation this month. The WTI $120 calls expired worthless as oil deflated on the extension news rather than spiking. |
| 0xbc…11A2 | BOUGHT $1.1M Buy | Cade Cunningham O9.5 AST | Aligning with the sharp rebound narrative. Position settles tonight in Game 2. |
Top Prediction Market Apps Comparison
| # | Platform | Fees (7d) | Distribution | vs Prior Period |
|---|
Below is a detailed comparison of the leading prediction market apps available in the U.S. (with availability and features):
| App | Event Types | Liquidity & Volume | Major Strengths | Regulation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Promo Code | Politics, Econ, Sports, Culture | High | Regulated, broad events, strong liquidity | CFTC regulated |
| Polymarket promo Code | Sports, Culture, Crypto | Very High (Global leader) | Tight spreads, decentralized roots | Partial U.S. availability |
| Robinhood Markets | Sports, Politics | Moderate | Integrated with trading app | Regulated |
| Underdog Predict | Sports, futures | Low | Fast growing | CFTC-linked |
| Novig | Politics, Econ, Sports | Variable | Sports | Regulatory transition |
| Coinbase Predict | Politics, Econ, Sports | Variable | Crypto | CFTC regulated |
CFTC-Regulated
All U.S. Prediction Markets
A complete tracker of every CFTC-regulated prediction market platform operating in the United States, organized by regulatory status.
Operating Through DCM License
15 platforms| # | Platform | Partner / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Kalshi | Direct DCM |
| 02 | Webull | Kalshi |
| 03 | ForecastEx | IBKR |
| 04 | Robinhood | KalshiIBKR |
| 05 | Crypto.com | — |
| 06 | Underdog Predict | — |
| 07 | PrizePicks Predict | Kalshi |
| 08 | Polymarket US | QCEX |
| 09 | Fanatics | Crypto.com |
| 10 | DraftKings Predict | CMECrypto.com |
| 11 | Gemini Predictions | — |
| 12 | FanDuel Predicts | CME |
| 13 | Coinbase Predict | Kalshi |
| 14 | OG | Crypto.com |
| 15 | Sleeper | Kalshi |
Operating With No-Action Letter
2 platforms| # | Platform | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Iowa Electronic Markets | — |
| 02 | PredictIt | — |
Coming Soon
21 platforms| # | Platform | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Bitnomial | — |
| 02 | Aristotle | — |
| 03 | RSBIX | — |
| 04 | Truth Predict | Crypto.com |
| 05 | Hollywood.com | Crypto.com |
| 06 | MyPrize | Crypto.com |
| 07 | Kraken | Small Exchange |
| 08 | ProphetX | — |
| 09 | eToro | ? |
| 10 | Cboe | — |
| 11 | Robinhood | MIAXdx |
| 12 | DraftKings Predict | Railbird |
| 13 | Metavesco | — |
| 14 | Matchbook | — |
| 15 | HighRoller Markets | Crypto.com |
| 16 | Novig | — |
| 17 | Sporttrade | — |
| 18 | PMEX | — |
| 19 | PredictCraft | — |
| 20 | Nasdaq | — |
| 21 | Betr | Polymarket |
Best Prediction Market Apps Explained
1. Kalsh: Best All-Around Regulated Market
Why it stands out:
- Federally licensed as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), giving it robust legal footing.
- Wide variety of event types from elections to economic data and sports.
- Growing volume and liquidity compared to competitors.
Who it’s best for: Traders who want regulated markets and deep selection.
2. Polymarket: Culture & High-Volume Trading
Key features:
- One of the largest global prediction markets, popular for both financial and cultural markets.
- Known for tight spreads and active volume across viral events.
- Strategic sports partnerships — e.g., exclusive deal with Major League Soccer (MLS).
Who it’s best for: Traders interested in trending news, pop culture, and sports speculation.
3. Robinhood Markets: Integrated & Simple
- Brings prediction markets directly within a consumer investment/trading app.
- Known for no-commission pricing on many event trades.
Who it’s best for: Traders or investors familiar with Robinhood’s UI and focused on sports & politics markets.
4. Underdog Predict: Sports-Focused
- Emerging options for sports prediction futures within larger ecosystem apps.
- Close partnerships with major sportsbooks and services expanding into prediction markets.
Who it’s best for: Sports bettors/traders who want prediction markets with sports event specialization.
Liquidity & Volume Metrics
Platform Growth Report — Week of April 13–19, 2026 — Cleatz Intelligence
Kalshi posts record $3.54B week, Polymarket tops 45M visits & challenger brands take shape
Weekly platform intelligence across the top prediction market apps. This report tracks web traffic, app store ratings, reported download milestones, trading volume, and funding/valuation moves across the platforms that define our best prediction market apps coverage. Numbers are sourced from Similarweb public pages, Sensor Tower public reports, app store listings, Kalshi and Polymarket public volume data, and company disclosures. Data gaps are flagged explicitly at the end of each section.
Leaderboard
🥇 The “Big Three”: traffic & volume leaders Market Leaders
At the top of the market, three platforms account for the overwhelming majority of prediction market activity. Polymarket leads on web traffic and global notional volume; Kalshi leads on U.S. regulated sports volume and is now the industry’s most valuable private company in the category; Robinhood leads on retail distribution reach.
| Platform | Monthly web visits | Recent volume | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 45.3M (Mar 2026) — up ~400% YoY | $2.54B weekly (NCAA wk) | ~$15B (reported $400M round in talks) |
| Kalshi | 13M (Mar 2026) — up ~83% vs Nov 2024 | $3.54B weekly (Masters wk, record) | $22B (Mar 2026 Coatue round, $1B+ raised) |
| Robinhood (via Kalshi & MIAXdx) | N/A (prediction markets embedded in main app) | 8.5B contracts Q4 2025; 12B+ full-year 2025 | Public (HOOD); ~$300M est. prediction markets annual revenue |
Sources: Similarweb public pages (polymarket.com, kalshi.com); DeFi Rate weekly volume tracker; Sports Illustrated Masters coverage; Sacra Kalshi financials; Robinhood Q4 2025 investor letter.
Challenger Tracker
🚀 Challenger brands: the 2025–2026 new entrants Emerging
Five major platforms have launched or re-launched in the U.S. between December 2025 and February 2026. This is the cohort most likely to reshape rankings over the next 6–12 months.
| Platform | Launched | Coverage | Key signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| OG (Crypto.com) | Feb 3, 2026 | U.S. nationwide via CDNA | Crypto.com reported 40x weekly growth in the pre-launch prediction markets business; first 1M signups get up to $500 rewards; first platform to offer margin trading. |
| DraftKings Predictions | Dec 19, 2025 | 38 states (CA, TX, GA, FL) | Via Railbird exchange acquisition; partnered with CME Group; launched with parlay-style product pending CFTC certification. |
| FanDuel Predicts | Dec 22, 2025 | 50 states; sports in 18 | Expanded from 5 states at launch to all 50 by mid-January. Partnered with CME Group. Flutter projects $40–$50M Q4 EBITDA cost to launch. |
| Fanatics Predicts | Early Dec 2025 | 24 states (as of launch) | First iGaming operator in the category, via Crypto.com partnership. |
| Coinbase Predictions | Late 2025 | U.S. via Kalshi | Rolled out to existing Coinbase U.S. customer base via Kalshi exchange integration; now named in NY AG lawsuit (April 22, 2026). |
Crypto.com’s stated 40x weekly growth in its prediction markets business over the six months preceding the February OG spinout is the most aggressive publicly disclosed growth rate in the category. That figure came from the launch press release and was repeated by CEO Kris Marszalek—it hasn’t been independently validated by a third-party panel, but it’s the signal that triggered the standalone product. If OG is now running its own independent growth curve post-spinout, it would be the fastest-emerging challenger on this list. Independent download and DAU data for OG is not yet visible in public Sensor Tower or Similarweb previews.
Sources: Crypto.com press release (Feb 3, 2026); iGaming Business DraftKings/FanDuel launch coverage; Yahoo Sports FanDuel 50-state expansion; CNN Business FanDuel sports coverage (April 19, 2026).
Web Traffic
🌐 Similarweb data: the traffic picture Public Data
Similarweb’s free public pages give us a consistent, refreshable signal for website traffic. These numbers are directionally reliable even though the absolute counts are modeled estimates.
Polymarket’s global web rank has climbed from 940 to 836 over the past three months. February traffic was 32.5M visits (up 0.79% MoM), March jumped to 45.3M as the Iran war markets spiked. Direct traffic is 74.17% of desktop visits—a sign of strong brand-driven return traffic, not paid acquisition. Top audience overlap: CoinMarketCap, Kalshi, TradingView, Claude.ai. U.S., India, and Israel are the top three visitor countries.
Kalshi jumped from 7.1M visits in November 2024 to 13M in March 2026—an 83% increase that roughly matches the platform’s trajectory since the 2024 election. Direct traffic is 66.06% of desktop visits. Top keywords driving organic traffic include “kalshi,” “kalshi texas senate,” “polymarket” (interesting cross-search), and “kalshi bracket challenge.” Audience overlap: polymarket.com, espn.com, 270towin.com, DraftKings sportsbook, FanDuel sportsbook.
Sources: similarweb.com/website/polymarket.com/ and similarweb.com/website/kalshi.com/ (public pages); Fortune “Investors are betting big” feature (Sep 2025, cited March 2026 baselines).
App Store Signals
📱 App Store & Google Play: what’s publicly visible Public Data
| Platform | iOS rating | Google Play | Notable milestones |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 4.7 ☆ (22,000+ reviews) | 500K+ downloads, 4.5 ☆ (3,000+ reviews) | ~4.4M downloads during NFL season (Citizens JMP note); ~1M during NFL playoffs alone; highest 2-week download market share in platform history |
| Polymarket | Active (requires iOS 18.0+) | Available; crypto wallet required | 30M+ global users claimed in app description; $27B+ total traded globally |
| Robinhood | Main Robinhood app (prediction markets embedded) | Same | Event contracts “fastest-growing product line by revenue” per Robinhood investor letter |
| OG | Live on App Store & Google Play | Live | Feb 3, 2026 launch; first 1M users eligible for $500 rewards |
| DraftKings Predictions | Standalone app | Standalone app | Dec 19, 2025 launch in 38 states |
| FanDuel Predicts | Standalone app | Standalone app | Dec 22, 2025 launch; expanded to 50 states by mid-January |
Citizens JMP Securities reported Kalshi accumulated approximately 1 million app downloads during the NFL playoffs alone—their highest 2-week download market share in platform history. Across the full NFL season, the estimate is roughly 4.4 million downloads, putting Kalshi in the same rough band as FanDuel and ahead of DraftKings in that window. This is the single best third-party download validation currently available for any prediction market platform.
Sources: Apple App Store public pages (Polymarket, Kalshi); Google Play public listings; The Lines and Next.io Kalshi app reviews; InGame “The Takeaway” newsletter citing Citizens JMP; Sensor Tower blog and State of Mobile 2026 report.
Trading Volume
💰 Volume & revenue: the hard numbers Company Data
Polymarket and Kalshi together generated roughly 85–90% of total industry notional volume in 2025. Kalshi’s December 2025 fee revenue hit a monthly record $63.5M, with the final week of the year pulling in $20M alone—more than the first four months of 2025 combined. Kalshi is now on an annualized pace for $600–$700M in net revenue based on November 2025 investor guidance.
Per Sensor Tower, Kalshi saw an 18% MAU increase in Q1 2026 while traditional sportsbook operators saw declines. This is the first quarter where the displacement effect of prediction markets on sportsbook revenue has been quantified at the panel level. Nearly 30% of Kalshi MAUs also used Robinhood in the same month in 2025—a strong audience overlap that has since deepened through the formal Robinhood-Kalshi brokerage partnership. This cross-audience dynamic is a meaningful moat for both platforms.
From Robinhood’s Q4 2025 investor letter: 8.5 billion event contracts in Q4 alone, 12B+ across the full year, 1M+ customers. Q3 2025 event contracts “more than doubled sequentially” to 2.3B. The Robinhood-Susquehanna MIAXdx acquisition (closing Q1 2026) positions Robinhood to capture this volume on its own exchange rather than routing through Kalshi, which would be the most significant structural shift in the category if it plays out as planned.
Methodology
🔎 What this briefing covers — and what it doesn’t Transparency
Similarweb public page traffic estimates; app store ratings, review counts, version updates; Polymarket Analytics and Kalshi API public market data; Sensor Tower public blog posts and State of Mobile reports; company press releases; SEC filings and investor letters for public companies (HOOD, FLUT, DKNG, CME, COIN); news coverage citing Sensor Tower, Apptopia, or Similarweb data; Google Trends search interest; Reddit subreddit growth.
Precise monthly downloads by app by country; DAU/MAU time series and retention curves for any individual app; cross-app audience overlap at granular level; ad spend and creative intelligence (Pathmatics); in-app purchase revenue for specific SKUs; historical traffic data beyond the current Similarweb preview window. For these, the free Sensor Tower pop-up at app.sensortower.com gives a last-month snapshot that we can screenshot into the briefing manually.
Run this report every Monday covering the prior week. Refresh the leaderboard, challenger tracker, and Sensor Tower/Similarweb signals automatically. Every 2–4 weeks, supplement with a Sensor Tower free-preview screenshot of the 4–5 most-watched apps for a fresh download snapshot. Quarterly, pull public company earnings data when HOOD, FLUT, DKNG, and COIN report to refresh revenue and contract-count numbers.
Liquidity and volume distinguish serious prediction markets. Higher liquidity typically means tighter spreads and faster fills, especially around big events (e.g., Presidential elections or Super Bowl futures).
Approx. trading volume snapshot:
| Platform | Estimated Monthly Volume |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | ~$1.9B+ (sports heavy) |
| Kalshi | $4.4B+ (wide event mix) |
| Robinhood/Underdog | Variable, rising |
These figures show institutional and retail engagement in prediction markets far beyond early niches.
Legal & Regulatory Landscape (U.S.)
Prediction markets have seen high scrutiny and rapid development:
- CFTC regulation: Kalshi’s designation gives it strong oversight.
- Ongoing debates: Some regulators argue these markets operate like gambling.
- Sports betting expansion: Entities like FanDuel partnering with CME Group signal mainstream adoption
This means where and how you can trade may vary by state and platform. Always consult each platform’s legal disclosures.
Event Types You Can Trade
Most prediction markets categorize events into:
- Politics: Elections, primaries, policy outcomes.
- Economics: Inflation, jobs data, Fed decisions.
- Sports: Match winners, futures, MVP markets.
- Culture & media: Award winners, major news outcomes.
- Finance & commodities: Indices and price direction.
This breadth makes them more like financial markets than casual betting apps.
Expert Tips for Choosing an App
1. Liquidity matters: Higher liquidity = tighter pricing and easier trades.
2. Know your event focus: Some apps specialize (e.g., political markets), while others cover broad events.
3. Fees & spreads: Look at transaction costs, higher fees can erode returns.
4. Regulation: U.S. regulated markets often provide better legal clarity.
Transaction Fees:
Prediction market platforms can make their money on transaction fees or by leveraging the bid-ask spread. Fees can be variable based on how much you spend. The platform Kalshi usually charges $0.02 to buy a $0.40 contract and $1.68 to buy 100 $0.40 contracts. Competing platform Polymarket does not charge fees and instead earns on the difference between the bid price and the higher selling price. – YAHOO Finance
Prediction Markets FAQ
There’s debate. Some regulators treat them as gambling; others see them as forecasting markets with financial characteristics.
Availability varies by state and regulation. Roughly 48 states currently allow Prediction Markets, but check local laws and platform disclosures.
Prices typically reflect the implied chance of an outcome occurring. For example, a $0.80 price = ~80% chance.
Our Choice For Best Prediction Market Apps
| 🏆 Best Overall | 💰Best for Culture | 📊 Best for Integration | 🏈 Best for Sports Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Polymarket | Robinhood Markets | Underdog Predict |
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Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.