Updated On February 8, 2026
Tier 1 — Best Overall First TD Picks
Kenneth Walker (SEA RB) — +370
Why it works
- Q1 rush share: 57.5% (L5) | 63.1% (L10)
- Red-zone rush share: 45.5% (L5) | 53.8% (L10)
- Seattle’s clear early-drive finisher
- Shortest TD path (no pass dependency)
CLEATZ Verdict:
The cleanest and most repeatable First TD profile on the board.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR) — +500
Why it works
- Q1 target share: 42.9% (L5) | 36.1% (L10)
- Red-zone target share: 37.5% (L5) | 40.0% (L10)
- Primary passing option on scripted drives
CLEATZ Verdict:
If the Seahawks score through the air early, JSN is overwhelmingly the most likely target.
Tier 2 — Strong Value / Leverage Picks
Hunter Henry (NE TE) — +1400
Why it works
- Team-high red-zone target share: 33%
- Consistent early-drive usage
- TE scoring tends to be underpriced in First TD markets
CLEATZ Verdict:
Excellent leverage if New England scores first via play-action.
TreVeyon Henderson (NE RB) — +3000
Why it works
- Q1 rush share: 42.5% (L5) | 47.4% (L10)
- Red-zone rush share: 60% (L5) | 62.5% (L10)
- Massive goal-line equity at long odds
CLEATZ Verdict:
One of the best long-shot First TD prices on the board.
Tier 3 — Conditional / Script-Dependent
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB) — +850
- Strong early rushing role
- Less red-zone dominance than Henderson
- Needs a Patriots-controlled opening drive
Fades / Low-Probability Options
- Secondary WRs with limited Q1 usage
- Backup RBs without goal-line roles
- QBs without designed goal-line runs
These profiles rely on broken plays, not repeatable scoring paths.
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