Top First TD Scorer Picks
🔥 Best Overall Profiles
- Jauan Jennings (+1300)
• Highest overall score on the board
• Strong Q1 target share (23.9%) and red-zone targets (33.3%)
• Classic first-drive TD archetype at long odds - Christian McCaffrey (+550)
• Massive Q1 rush share (75%)
• Consistent red-zone involvement
• Shorter odds, but still elite probability
High-Upside WR Shots
- Rome Odunze (+1500)
• 70% first-possession chance
• Strong Q1 target share (26.7%) + RZ targets (40%) - Davante Adams (+600)
• Elite red-zone usage (37.9%)
• Condensed offense keeps him live early - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+500)
• 38.7% Q1 target share
• Seattle scripting him early
Tight End / Sneaky Angles
- Hunter Henry (+850)
• Reliable red-zone presence
• New England often scripts TE looks early - Dalton Schultz (+950)
• Steady Q1 target share
• Better value than his anytime TD line
Longshot Sprinkles
- Demarcus Robinson (+2000)
- Dawson Knox (+2000)
Both show non-zero Q1 + RZ usage at extreme prices.
🧱 Best Card Construction (First TD Only)
- TE longshot (Henry or Schultz)
- Short-to-mid price anchor (McCaffrey or Adams)
- 2–3 WR darts (Jennings, Odunze, JSN)
| Player | Team | SCORE | Odds | First_Pos_Chance | TGT_Share_Q1_L10 | RZ_TGT_Share_Q1_L10 | RZ_Rush_Share_Q1_L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | SF | 82.84 | +1300 | 50.0 | 23.9 | 33.3 | 0.0 |
| Puka Nacua | LA | 82.17 | +500 | 30.0 | 35.5 | 22.7 | 0.0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | 81.62 | +600 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.4 |
| Davante Adams | LA | 78.74 | +600 | 30.0 | 24.5 | 37.9 | 0.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 78.00 | +500 | 50.0 | 38.7 | 33.3 | 0.0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | 73.69 | +2000 | 50.0 | 11.9 | 16.7 | 0.0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE | 73.45 | +1600 | 45.4 | 15.8 | 20.0 | 0.0 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | 73.25 | +850 | 45.4 | 12.7 | 27.3 | 0.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 72.52 | +550 | 50.0 | 20.9 | 33.3 | 75.0 |
| Christian Kirk | HOU | 71.48 | +1200 | 54.6 | 15.4 | 30.0 | 0.0 |
| DAndre Swift | CHI | 70.13 | +850 | 70.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 46.2 |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | 69.61 | +1500 | 70.0 | 26.7 | 40.0 | 0.0 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | 67.80 | +2000 | 50.0 | 13.6 | 33.3 | 0.0 |
| Jayden Higgins | HOU | 66.58 | +1500 | 54.6 | 20.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 65.36 | +750 | 54.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 35.3 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | 64.48 | +950 | 54.6 | 16.7 | 30.0 | 0.0 |
| DJ Moore | CHI | 64.30 | +1600 | 70.0 | 18.6 | 33.3 | 0.0 |
