Live Election Odds: Kalshi vs. Polymarket Comparison

This page tracks live election odds side by side from the two largest US prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket. For each race below, you’ll see the implied probability from each platform, how the market has moved recently, and a short read on what the numbers say. Odds update continuously as real money trades, so the picture reflects what traders think right now, not a static poll.

How To Read Election Markets

Each percentage is an implied probability, not a betting line. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, a contract that resolves “Yes” pays out a fixed amount, and its current price maps directly to the market’s estimate of the likelihood of that outcome. A candidate trading at 30¢ is, in effect, the market pricing roughly a 30% chance they win. When you see a Kalshi figure and a Polymarket figure side by side, you’re comparing two independent crowds pricing the same question.

The two platforms are built differently, which is why their numbers rarely match exactly. Kalshi is a US, federally regulated exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); it tends to attract domestic, finance-minded traders. Polymarket is larger and crypto-native with a global user base. Different crowds, liquidity, and fee structures mean the same race can carry slightly different odds at each venue.

Why Kalshi and Polymarket Prices Differ

Small gaps between the two platforms are normal and expected. Because each market has a different audience and trades in a different currency (US dollars on Kalshi, stablecoins on Polymarket), prices are set by separate pools of money that don’t always move in lockstep. In long-horizon races like the 2028 presidency, where contracts can sit for months, those gaps can persist rather than close instantly.

A few structural reasons the numbers diverge:

• Different crowds. Kalshi skews toward US-based, regulation-compliant traders; Polymarket draws a larger, crypto-native, international audience. Each pool can read the same news differently.
• Liquidity and depth. A race that’s heavily traded on one platform may be thin on the other, and thinner markets move more on smaller trades, widening the spread.
• How the question is framed. One platform may run a “which party wins?” market while the other lists each candidate separately. Aligning those framings is part of what this page does for you.
• Timing. After major news—an endorsement, a candidate entering or exiting—one market often reprices before the other.

When the gap for a given race is wide, the analysis in each card’s dropdown flags it. A persistent gap is itself information: it tells you the two crowds genuinely disagree, rather than simply lagging behind each other.

The Election Races We Track

2028 US Presidential Election Odds

The 2028 presidential market is already active years ahead of the vote. Long-horizon races like this tend to move slowly, then sharply in response to a candidate announcing, a major endorsement, or a strong debate. Both platforms price the overall winner as well as each party’s nominee, so you can watch the primary field and the general-election picture separately in the cards above.

2028 Democratic & Republican Nominee Odds

Nominee markets price who each party will put forward in 2028. These are crowded fields this far out, so no single name usually commands a majority, and the order can shift quickly as the political landscape changes. Comparing Kalshi and Polymarket here is useful because the two crowds often rate the same contenders differently.

2026 US Senate & House Control Odds

Control-of-Congress markets the price that party is favored to hold each chamber after the November 2026 midterms. These are two-outcome races, one party or the other, so the figures are close to complementary. Because each side trades as its own contract, the two probabilities may not add up to exactly 100%, as the cards note where relevant.

2026 Balance of Power

Beyond individual chambers, prediction markets price the full balance of power: which party controls the House and Senate together (and, looking ahead to 2028, the presidency too). These “trifecta” and “split government” markets show how traders weigh a clean sweep against a divided government.

State & Local Races

We also track high-interest state and local contests, such as competitive Senate races and the Los Angeles mayoral election. Coverage varies by platform; some races trade on only one venue, and the cards make clear which platform’s odds you’re seeing for each.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are Kalshi and Polymarket odds accurate?

Prediction markets have a strong, though imperfect, track record. A study of the final five weeks of the 2024 US election found Kalshi’s political markets resolved correctly about 78% of the time and Polymarket’s about 67%, using standard forecasting metrics. No market is a crystal ball—odds reflect the crowd’s current estimate, and crowds can be wrong—but well-traded markets tend to be reasonably well calibrated, especially close to an event.

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds for the same race?

Because they’re separate markets with separate traders. Kalshi’s US, dollar-based crowd and Polymarket’s larger, crypto-native global crowd price the same questions independently, and differences in liquidity, fees, and how a market is framed all push the numbers apart. Small gaps are routine; a wide, persistent gap usually signals genuine disagreement between the two crowds.

What does the percentage actually mean?

It’s the market’s implied probability of that outcome. A contract priced at 60¢ corresponds to roughly a 60% chance the market assigns to “Yes.” It is not a payout multiplier or a sportsbook line—it’s the crowd’s probability estimate, expressed as a price.

How often do these odds update?

The dashboard refreshes regularly so the figures stay close to live. Each card also shows recent movement once enough price history has accumulated, so you can see not just where a race stands but which direction it’s heading.

Is it legal to trade election markets in the US?

Kalshi offers election contracts under federal CFTC oversight, and a 2024 federal court ruling affirmed that political event contracts can be listed legally as financial derivatives rather than gambling. That said, the broader regulatory picture is contested and changing, and access can vary by state. This page is for information only and is not legal, financial, or betting advice—check the rules in your own state and each platform’s eligibility terms before trading.

What’s the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket?

Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange that trades in dollars and is generally seen as the leader in regulated US event trading; Polymarket is the larger, crypto-native platform with a broader global footprint. Both let you trade Yes/No contracts on real-world outcomes, including elections. For the same race, expect similar, but rarely identical odds.

Methodology & Data Sources

Odds on this page come directly from Kalshi and Polymarket. For each race, we read the current market price for every active contract, convert it to an implied probability, and align the two platforms on the same outcome, by candidate for nominee and winner markets, and by party for control-of-Congress markets.

Settled and inactive contracts are filtered out. “Movement” reflects how a price has changed over a recent window as fresh price snapshots accumulate. We display each platform’s real traded price rather than adjusting the numbers, so two sides of a binary race may not sum to exactly 100%.