The NFL Week 1 betting board is starting to get interesting. Really interesting.
With the opening weekend still several weeks away, bettors have already taken strong positions on teams like the Raiders, Cowboys, Broncos, Steelers and Bears. But looking at one set of public betting percentages only tells part of the story.
CLEATZ is tracking NFL Week 1 betting splits, ticket percentages, handle percentages, line movement and prediction-market probabilities throughout the lead-up to kickoff. When we compare those numbers with betting data published by other sportsbooks, something becomes obvious:
There isn’t one universal “public.”
Some Week 1 games have bettors lining up on the same side across multiple datasets. Others look completely different depending on where you look.
Steelers-Falcons might be the best example. One set of betting splits has money pouring into Pittsburgh. Another has the money overwhelmingly backing Atlanta.
That’s where this gets useful.
Rather than simply identifying the team with the biggest percentage, we’re looking for agreement, disagreement, and unusually large gaps between the number of bets and the amount of money wagered.
Data below is a snapshot as of August 18, 2026. Betting percentages and NFL lines will continue changing leading up to Week 1.
NFL Week 1 Betting Splits: Most Bet Teams
The early CLEATZ Week 1 board has several extremely concentrated spread positions.
| Week 1 Spread | Bets | Handle |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders -3.5 vs. Dolphins | 64% | 98% |
| Cowboys -2.5 at Giants | 78% | 95% |
| Broncos +3 at Chiefs | 65% | 92% |
| Steelers -3 vs. Falcons | 60% | 91% |
| Titans -3 vs. Jets | 47% | 88% |
The Raiders currently lead the board with 98% of tracked spread handle on Las Vegas -3.5, despite drawing only 64% of the tickets. Dallas isn’t far behind, with Cowboys -2.5 receiving 78% of bets but 95% of the money.
Those gaps matter.
A higher handle percentage than ticket percentage means the average wager on that side has been larger within the tracked sample. It does not automatically prove professional or “sharp” action, but it is one of the market signals worth monitoring as kickoff gets closer.
And then there are the Broncos.
Denver +3 has 65% of spread bets but 92% of the handle against Kansas City. That would be notable on its own.
Comparing it with betting activity elsewhere makes it much more interesting.
The Biggest NFL Week 1 Betting Split Disagreements
Public betting percentages are often presented as though there is a single giant pool of NFL bettors.
There isn’t.
Different sportsbooks have different customers, different limits, different prices and different amounts of money entering each market at different times.
Week 1 gives us several perfect examples.
Steelers vs. Falcons: Two Completely Different Stories
If there is one Week 1 matchup worth watching closely, it might be Atlanta at Pittsburgh.
The CLEATZ-tracked data currently has:
Steelers -3
- 60% of spread bets
- 91% of spread handle
Pittsburgh’s moneyline is also getting 75% of tickets and 87% of the money. Kalshi, Polymarket and the sportsbook no-vig probability are remarkably aligned, putting Pittsburgh around a 60% to 61% favorite to win outright.
Then look at BetMGM.
Its published Week 1 splits show 61% of spread tickets and 82% of spread money on Atlanta +3.
That’s almost a mirror image.
| Source | Most Backed Spread Side | Bets | Handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLEATZ tracked data | Steelers -3 | 60% | 91% |
| BetMGM | Falcons +3 | 61% | 82% |
So who is “the public”?
Both datasets represent real betting activity.
And that’s precisely why comparing multiple sources can be more useful than blindly following one percentage.
This game doesn’t have a public consensus. It has a market disagreement.
Bills vs. Texans: Book Favorite, Prediction-Market Underdog?
Buffalo-Houston might be even more intriguing.
CLEATZ currently shows Bills -1.5 receiving 85% of spread bets and 81% of spread handle. Buffalo also holds 74% of moneyline tickets and 72% of moneyline handle.
That’s a very clear Buffalo lean.
But BetMGM’s published splits tell another story.
Buffalo has 52% of spread tickets there, while Houston is receiving 65% of the money.
And the prediction markets are siding — slightly — with Houston.
CLEATZ currently shows:
| Market | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 49% | 51% |
| Polymarket | 49% | 51% |
| Sportsbook No-Vig | 52% | 48% |
That creates one of the strangest Week 1 setups on the board:
CLEATZ spread bettors: Buffalo
BetMGM money: Houston
Sportsbook price: Buffalo slight favorite
Kalshi: Houston slight favorite
Polymarket: Houston slight favorite
Forget trying to force a “sharp side” label onto that.
The more useful conclusion is that Bills-Texans is one of Week 1’s most divided markets.
Broncos vs. Chiefs: Denver Is Attracting Serious Attention
Kansas City is laying three points at home, but the spread money tracked by CLEATZ isn’t interested in the favorite.
Denver +3 currently has:
- 65% of spread bets
- 92% of spread handle
Yet Kansas City remains the moneyline favorite, with Kalshi pricing the Chiefs around 56%, Polymarket around 57% and the sportsbook no-vig probability around 58%.
BetMGM’s numbers create another twist.
There, 80% of spread tickets are also backing Denver, but 55% of the spread money is on Kansas City.
Same game. Same three-point spread.
Very different money distribution.
The public-ticket story is fairly consistent: Denver is popular.
The handle story is not.
That makes Broncos-Chiefs another matchup worth revisiting as limits increase and Week 1 gets closer.
Patriots vs. Seahawks: The Underdog Moneyline Mystery
The defending champion Seahawks are favored against New England, and the outright win markets largely agree on Seattle.
Kalshi currently prices Seattle around 64%.
Polymarket has Seattle around 65%.
The sportsbook’s no-vig probability is approximately 63%.
Nothing strange there.
Then you look at the betting splits.
New England +3.5 has 64% of spread tickets and 57% of spread money on CLEATZ.
More dramatically, Patriots +160 has just 51% of moneyline tickets but an enormous 93% of tracked moneyline handle.
BetMGM bettors are leaning the other way on the spread, with Seattle -3.5 taking 58% of tickets and 59% of money.
So once again:
Prediction markets: Seattle
BetMGM spread action: Seattle
CLEATZ spread action: New England
CLEATZ moneyline handle: Heavily New England
That’s exactly the type of disagreement we want the live board to identify.
Bears vs. Panthers: Finally, Something Everyone Agrees On
If you’re looking for an actual Week 1 public darling, Chicago has a strong case.
CLEATZ currently has Bears -2.5 receiving:
- 89% of spread tickets
- 77% of spread handle
BetMGM is even more lopsided:
- 93% of tickets
- 80% of money
That’s legitimate cross-market agreement.
But the spread may not even be the most interesting part of Bears-Panthers.
The Over 46.5 currently owns 77% of tickets and 99% of handle on the CLEATZ board.
The total opened around 44.5 and has climbed to 46.5 while Over money continued arriving.
Unlike some of the contradictory markets above, this one is telling a fairly consistent story:
Bettors like Chicago.
And bettors really like points.
Raiders and Cowboys Are Getting Hammered
Two other Week 1 favorites have emerged near the top of the public-money board.
Raiders -3.5 vs. Dolphins
Las Vegas currently has 64% of spread tickets but a massive 98% of the handle.
The Raiders are also drawing 82% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline handle, while Kalshi, Polymarket and sportsbook pricing all put their win probability around 64% to 66%.
BetMGM bettors broadly agree: Raiders -3.5 has 75% of tickets and 71% of spread money there.
Unlike Steelers-Falcons or Bills-Texans, Raiders-Dolphins has fairly strong cross-source agreement.
Cowboys -2.5 at Giants
Dallas is another heavily backed favorite.
CLEATZ has Cowboys -2.5 pulling:
- 78% of tickets
- 95% of handle
The Cowboys moneyline is also getting 61% of tickets and 72% of the money. Kalshi and Polymarket each have Dallas around a 59% chance to win.
BetMGM also has Dallas as the popular spread side, with the Cowboys receiving 72% of bets and 63% of money.
Again, the degree varies.
The direction doesn’t.
Dallas is one of the clearer Week 1 consensus sides so far.
Week 1 Totals: Bettors Are Finding the Unders
The spread board is mixed, but the heaviest Week 1 totals action has a clear theme.
Four of the five most heavily backed totals by handle on CLEATZ are currently Unders:
| Total | Handle |
|---|---|
| Bears-Panthers Over 46.5 | 99% |
| Cardinals-Chargers Under 46.5 | 99% |
| Commanders-Eagles Under 47.5 | 97% |
| Packers-Vikings Under 45.5 | 93% |
| 49ers-Rams Under 48.5 | 90% |
Cardinals-Chargers is particularly lopsided: Under 46.5 is getting 80% of tickets and 99% of the money.
Commanders-Eagles isn’t far behind. The Under 47.5 has 73% of tickets and 97% of handle.
And Packers-Vikings may have the strangest ticket-money split of the bunch. The Under 45.5 has only 41% of the tickets but 93% of the handle.
Again, that doesn’t automatically make the Under a “sharp bet.”
It does tell us the average tracked wager on that side has been dramatically larger.
Where Sportsbooks Agree – And Where They Don’t
Here’s the quickest way to summarize the early Week 1 board.
| Game | CLEATZ Handle Lean | BetMGM Money Lean | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons-Steelers | Steelers | Falcons | Major disagreement |
| Bills-Texans | Bills | Texans | Major disagreement |
| Broncos-Chiefs | Broncos | Chiefs | Major disagreement |
| Patriots-Seahawks | Patriots | Seahawks | Disagreement |
| Buccaneers-Bengals | Buccaneers | Bengals | Major disagreement |
| Raiders-Dolphins | Raiders | Raiders | Agreement |
| Panthers-Bears | Bears | Bears | Agreement |
| Saints-Lions | Lions | Lions | Agreement |
| Giants-Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Agreement |
| Cardinals-Chargers | Cardinals | Cardinals | Agreement |
BetMGM’s August 12 Week 1 dataset shows Bears, Rams, Titans, Lions, Raiders, Eagles, Vikings and Cowboys among its heavily supported sides, but several games conflict substantially with current CLEATZ-tracked handle percentages.
And that’s probably the biggest takeaway from the early Week 1 betting market:
Consensus is interesting. Disagreement may be even more useful.
What Do Kalshi and Polymarket Add?
Sportsbook betting percentages and prediction-market prices measure different things.
A sportsbook split tells us how customers at that sportsbook are betting.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket tell us the probability traders are collectively assigning to an outcome through the market price.
CLEATZ puts those signals next to each other.
For Patriots-Seahawks, for example, Kalshi, Polymarket, and the sportsbook price all put Seattle around 63% to 65% to win even while New England is attracting 93% of tracked moneyline handle.
Bills-Texans is even tighter: Kalshi and Polymarket have Houston at 51%, while the sportsbook no-vig number has Buffalo at 52%.
Meanwhile, markets such as Jaguars-Browns show almost perfect agreement, with Kalshi, Polymarket and sportsbook pricing all placing Jacksonville around a 76% to 77% win probability.
The disagreement is the signal.
Prediction-market prices should not be confused with sportsbook public betting percentages, but putting the two next to each other can show whether bettors and market prices are telling the same story.
NFL Week 1 Public Betting: What We’re Watching Next
The current percentages are early.
That’s not a weakness; it gives us a baseline.
As Week 1 approaches, the board should become much more informative as betting volume increases, limits rise, injury information becomes clearer and more recreational money enters the market.
The matchups we’ll be watching most closely:
Steelers-Falcons: Can two sportsbook datasets continue pointing almost completely opposite directions?
Bills-Texans: Does Houston remain favored by the prediction markets while Buffalo remains the sportsbook spread favorite?
Broncos-Chiefs: Does Denver continue attracting spread money at +3?
Patriots-Seahawks: Does the massive New England moneyline-handle position survive as more money arrives?
Bears-Panthers: Can Chicago remain one of the most universally backed Week 1 teams?
And perhaps most importantly:
Which of today’s apparent consensus positions disappear once the real Week 1 money arrives?
That’s why this page isn’t a prediction. It’s a snapshot of the market.
CLEATZ will continue to update the NFL public betting percentages, weather reports, line movement, and prediction-market probabilities through Week 1 as the board evolves.
Because by kickoff, the numbers that matter most may look nothing like the ones we’re seeing today.
More NFL Betting Data from CLEATZ
Track the latest NFL betting splits, odds, picks and game-day weather with CLEATZ.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
