The 2026 college football season is still a few weeks away, but bettors have already developed some very strong opinions.
BetMGM’s latest win total data across the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 shows heavy optimism surrounding Oklahoma, Ohio State and UCLA. On the other side, bettors are lining up to fade Indiana, Cincinnati, Vanderbilt and Iowa State.
Then there is Colorado, which has somehow become one of the most popular overs and unders on the entire board.
Before digging into the biggest storylines, bettors can compare these season-long positions with the latest college football lines, CFB public betting percentages and the full CLEATZ college football hub.
Most-Bet College Football Win Total Overs
By number of tickets 🎟️
① Oklahoma Over 7.5
② Colorado Over 4.5
③ Ohio State Over 9.5
④ UCLA Over 6.5
⑤ Michigan State Over 4.5
By total money wagered 💰
① Colorado Over 4.5
② Oklahoma Over 7.5
③ UCLA Over 6.5
④ Louisville Over 8.5
⑤ California Over 6.5
Most-Bet College Football Win Total Unders
By number of tickets 🎟️
① Penn State Under 8.5
② Cincinnati Under 5.5
③ Colorado Under 4.5
④ Vanderbilt Under 5.5
⑤ Indiana Under 10.5
By total money wagered 💰
① Indiana Under 10.5
② Colorado Under 4.5
③ Wake Forest Under 5.5
④ Vanderbilt Under 5.5
⑤ Iowa State Under 4.5
Oklahoma Is the Public’s Favorite SEC Over
Oklahoma Over 7.5 is the most-bet over at BetMGM by ticket count, attracting 96% of the over/under tickets and 95% of the handle on that side.
The sportsbook has responded by moving the price on Over 7.5 from -115 to -145. The total has not moved to 8, but bettors now have to pay a significantly higher price to back an eight-win season.
That makes Oklahoma one of the cleanest examples of public opinion and market movement pointing in the same direction. Bettors are buying into the Sooners, and BetMGM is making them pay for it.
Anyone considering an Oklahoma futures position should also compare the team’s win total with the latest college football championship odds and 2026 Heisman odds.
Colorado Is the Most Divisive Team in the Country
Colorado is the real headline.
The Buffaloes rank:
- Second among the most-bet overs by tickets
- First among the most-bet overs by money
- Third among the most-bet unders by tickets
- Second among the most-bet unders by money
That does not mean the market is evenly divided. BetMGM’s percentage split still shows 68% of tickets and 85% of the handle on Over 4.5. It means Colorado is generating enough overall volume for both sides to rank among the sportsbook’s most popular wagers.
Colorado is not simply receiving action. It is receiving arguments.
The price movement adds another wrinkle. Over 4.5 opened at -115 but is now available at +135, while the Under has moved from -115 to -175. That movement favors the under despite most of the reported tickets and handle appearing on the over.
It is a useful reminder that CFB public betting snapshots do not always reveal when the wagers were placed. Early influential money, liability at other prices and subsequent market adjustments can all produce a split that appears to conflict with the current odds.
UCLA and Louisville Have Been Bet Up a Full Win
The strongest over movement has occurred on UCLA and Louisville.
UCLA opened with a win total of 5.5 before moving to 6.5. Bettors have continued backing the higher number, with 94% of tickets and 98% of the handle on the over.
Louisville has made the same move from 7.5 to 8.5, supported by an even more extreme split: 95% of tickets and 99% of the handle are backing the Cardinals to finish over the total.
Those are not minor juice adjustments. Moving through an entire win represents a meaningful change in the market’s season-long expectations.
Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, NC State, Houston, Kansas State and Oklahoma State have also seen their win totals increase by one victory since opening.
Bettors Expect Ohio State to Reach Double Digits
Ohio State’s win total remains 9.5, but the price has become considerably more expensive.
The Over opened at -160 and has moved to -185, with 91% of tickets and 94% of the handle backing another double-digit season.
Unlike UCLA and Louisville, BetMGM has not yet moved the Buckeyes to 10.5. The sportsbook has instead increased the cost of betting Over 9.5.
Ohio State’s placement near the top of the most-bet list is hardly surprising, but it still creates an important question: Is the market properly valuing another elite season, or are bettors paying a brand-name premium?
The CLEATZ SP+ rankings can provide another data point when comparing the betting market’s expectations with advanced team ratings.
Indiana’s 10.5 Total Is Drawing Heavy Under Money
Indiana Under 10.5 is BetMGM’s most-bet under by money and ranks fifth by ticket volume.
The percentage split is also emphatic: 86% of tickets and 79% of the handle are on the under.
Indiana’s total has remained at 10.5, although the Under has moved from -115 to -120. That is not an enormous adjustment, but it clearly shows bettors are reluctant to require another 11-win regular season.
The public often gravitates toward preseason optimism, especially in season win total markets. Indiana is the major exception. Bettors are treating its elevated expectation as a number worth challenging.
Cincinnati, Vanderbilt and Iowa State Attract Under Support
Cincinnati has one of the strongest percentage consensuses on the board. The Under 5.5 has attracted 92% of tickets and 93% of the handle, while its price has moved from +110 to -155.
Vanderbilt opened at 6.5 but has fallen to 5.5. Even at the reduced total, 79% of tickets and 89% of the handle remain on the under.
Iowa State has also dropped from 5.5 to 4.5, with 74% of tickets and 92% of the handle backing the under.
Wake Forest completes the top group of money-backed unders. Its total has fallen from 6.5 to 5.5, and the Under currently holds 79% of tickets and 91% of the handle.
These are more convincing market signals than a lopsided percentage on an unchanged line. In each case, the number or the price has moved substantially toward the under.
Washington Has Experienced the Biggest Win Total Drop
Washington has produced the largest move among the four conferences included in BetMGM’s report.
The Huskies opened at 9.5 wins and are now sitting at 7.5, a full two-win decline.
Only 37% of current tickets are on the under, but those wagers account for 55% of the handle. That suggests the under side has attracted fewer but larger wagers.
Other notable downward moves include:
- Penn State: 9.5 to 8.5
- LSU: 9.5 to 8.5
- Texas A&M: 9.5 to 8.5
- Texas Tech: 11.5 to 10.5
- Vanderbilt: 6.5 to 5.5
- Wake Forest: 6.5 to 5.5
- Iowa State: 5.5 to 4.5
- Rutgers: 5.5 to 4.5
California Shows Why Tickets and Handle Must Be Compared
California Over 6.5 is fifth among the most-bet overs by money, but the individual ticket split is nearly even.
Only 48% of tickets are on the over, yet those wagers represent 74% of the handle.
That 26-point difference indicates that the average over wager has been much larger than the average under wager. It does not automatically make California a “sharp” bet, particularly because the price on the over has moved from -145 to +120, but it makes the market worth monitoring.
Ticket percentages show popularity. Handle percentages show where the dollars are concentrated. The most useful signals generally appear when those two measurements disagree.
The CLEATZ Read
The public is broadly optimistic about Oklahoma, Ohio State, UCLA, Michigan State and Louisville. It is far less convinced by Indiana, Cincinnati, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest and Iowa State.
The most actionable information, however, may be found in the movement rather than the rankings.
UCLA and Louisville have been bet up a full win. Washington has fallen two victories. Vanderbilt, Wake Forest and Iowa State have all dropped despite already attracting substantial under action.
And Colorado has become the season’s ultimate preseason debate, generating enough bets on both sides to dominate nearly every BetMGM popularity list.
Win total markets will continue moving as depth charts settle, injuries emerge and Week 1 approaches. Track the latest numbers through the CLEATZ college football hub, compare weekly positions on the CFB picks page and monitor where the crowd is wagering through the college football public betting tracker.
BetMGM data reflects a current market snapshot and is subject to change. Ticket rankings measure wager count, while handle rankings measure the amount of money wagered.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
