Here are the best MLB strikeout props for Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Strikeout props are one of the most popular and often most predictable betting markets in Major League Baseball.
Every day during the MLB season, sportsbooks, DFS sites, and prediction markets post strikeout lines for starting pitchers, usually ranging between 4.5 and 7.5 strikeouts depending on the matchup, pitch count expectations, and opponent strikeout tendencies.
At CLEATZ, we track pitcher strikeout trends, matchup data, and prop hit rates to identify the best MLB strikeout props today.
CLEATZ MLB Strikeout Props Today
During the 2026 MLB season, this page updates daily with our top strikeout prop picks.
Each pick is generated by a 7-factor weighted scoring model that analyzes swinging strike rate (SwStr%), season strikeout percentage, opposing lineup K%, K/9, recent form over the last 3 starts, ballpark strikeout factors, and live weather conditions at game time.
The model produces an expected strikeout total for each starter, compares it to the posted line, and assigns a confidence tier, TOP PICK, SOLID, or LEAN, based on the size of the edge and overall composite score.
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Strikeout Props Hit Rate Trends Today
- Jack Kochanowicz has only hit the Strikeouts Over in 2 of his last 4 games (-0.10 Units / -2% ROI)
- Kris Bubic has only hit the Strikeouts Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (-0.35 Units / -4% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has only hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 20 games (-0.35 Units / -2% ROI)
- Steven Matz has only hit the Strikeouts Over in 2 of his last 4 games (-0.50 Units / -10% ROI)
- Simeon Woods Richard has only hit the Strikeouts Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (-0.60 Units / -11% ROI)
- Patrick Corbin has only hit the Strikeouts Under in 2 of his last 4 games (-1.20 Units / -19% ROI)
- Landen Roupp has only hit the Strikeouts Under in 2 of his last 5 games (-1.45 Units / -26% ROI)
- Parker Messick has only hit the Strikeouts Under in 1 of his last 4 games at home (-1.90 Units / -47% ROI)
- Kyle Harrison has only hit the Strikeouts Under in 1 of his last 4 games (-2.00 Units / -48% ROI)
- Luis Gil has only hit the Strikeouts Over in 1 of his last 4 games (-2.00 Units / -48% ROI)
Be sure to check back each day for:
- The best MLB strikeout props today
- Strikeout ladder targets
- Pitching matchup analysis
- Trending prop data
MLB Strikeout Leaders
2026 Regular Season · Live from MLB Stats API · Click any column to sort
| No. ▼ | Pitcher ↕ | K ▼ | IP ↕ | K/9 ↕ | K% ↕ | BB/K ↕ | ERA ↕ | GS ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loading… — |
— | — | — | — | — | — |
The Data That Actually Matters for K Props
Strikeout props have a specific set of variables that are different from batting or points props. Your cheat sheet table should include:
- Pitcher name and opponent
- The K line (e.g., o5.5 Ks) and the odds
- Implied probability
- K/9 season average
- K% last 5 starts (L5)
- Opposing team K% last 14 days (how often do they strike out?)
- Opposing team K% vs. RHP or LHP (handedness matchup matters enormously)
- Pitch count history — is this a 5-inning guy or does he go deep?
- Umpire strikeout tendency (umpire data is one of the most underused edges in K props)
What Are MLB Strikeout Props?
Strikeout props allow bettors to wager on how many batters a starting pitcher will strike out in a game.
The most common bet is the over/under strikeout total.
Example:
| Pitcher | Strikeout Line |
|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | O/U 6.5 strikeouts |
| Corbin Burnes | O/U 7.5 strikeouts |
| Zac Gallen | O/U 5.5 strikeouts |
If a pitcher’s line is 6.5 strikeouts, bettors can wager on:
- Over 6.5 strikeouts
- Under 6.5 strikeouts
If the pitcher records 7 or more strikeouts, the over wins.
If they record 6 or fewer, the under cashes.
Why Strikeout Props Are Popular
Strikeout props are appealing because they are largely independent of game outcome.
A pitcher can rack up strikeouts even if:
- Their team loses
- They allow a few runs
- The bullpen blows the game
That makes strikeout props more predictable than many other betting markets.
Strikeout totals are influenced by a handful of key factors:
- Pitcher strikeout rate (K%)
- Opponent strikeout tendencies
- Pitch count expectations
- Umpire strike zone tendencies
- Weather and ballpark conditions
Understanding these factors is critical when evaluating MLB strikeout props today.
Key Stats That Matter for Strikeout Props
When analyzing pitcher strikeout props, bettors should focus on a few core metrics.
Strikeout Rate (K%)
Strikeout rate measures how often a pitcher strikes out opposing hitters.
Elite strikeout pitchers typically carry K-rates above 28–30%.
Examples of high-strikeout pitchers in recent seasons include:
- Gerrit Cole
- Spencer Strider
- Corbin Burnes
- Zac Gallen
These pitchers regularly appear at the top of strikeout prop leaderboards.
Opponent Strikeout Rate
Some teams strike out far more than others.
Lineups with aggressive hitters or young rosters often rank near the top of MLB in strikeout rate.
When elite strikeout pitchers face high-K lineups, sportsbooks often post inflated strikeout lines.
That can create opportunities on both the over and under depending on matchup dynamics.
Pitch Count & Innings Expectation
A pitcher cannot record strikeouts if they’re not on the mound.
Pitchers expected to throw 90–100 pitches have far more strikeout upside than pitchers on strict pitch limits.
Early in the season, teams frequently manage workloads, which can lower strikeout totals.
Strikeout Ladder Props
One of the fastest-growing MLB prop markets is the strikeout ladder.
Instead of betting just the standard line, bettors can wager on higher strikeout totals at longer odds.
Example ladder:
| Strikeouts | Odds |
|---|---|
| 6+ | -110 |
| 8+ | +200 |
| 10+ | +450 |
If a pitcher with a 6.5 strikeout line has a favorable matchup, some bettors prefer ladder bets because they offer significantly higher payouts.
These ladder props have become increasingly popular at sportsbooks and DFS 2.0 apps like:
CLEATZ regularly tracks these ladder opportunities during the MLB season.
When Strikeout Props Offer the Most Value
Strikeout props tend to offer the most value when:
1️⃣ Elite strikeout pitchers face high-K lineups
Example scenario: A high strikeout pitcher facing a team with a top-5 strikeout rate.
2️⃣ Pitchers with rising strikeout trends
Strikeout rates can fluctuate throughout the season.
Pitchers showing increased velocity or swing-and-miss rates often outperform their strikeout lines.
3️⃣ Market overreaction
If a pitcher posts several high-strikeout games in a row, sportsbooks often raise the line dramatically.
That can create value on the under.
See additional MLB betting tools on CLEATZ:
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
