As of Sunday, April 26, 2026, the Final Four is set for Indianapolis. Following a dramatic Sunday in which UConn erased a 19-point deficit to stun top-seeded Duke and Michigan dismantled Tennessee by 33 points, we have our four remaining contenders for the 2026 National Championship.
START WINNING!
Odds to Win NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament 2026
Odds via BetMGM. Last updated April 4, 2026.
| Team | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | +165 | +4000 |
| Michigan | +180 | +2500 |
| Illinois | +475 | +6000 |
| UConn | +550 | +1400 |
2026 Final Four Game Odds
Saturday, April 4 | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis | Odds via BetMGM
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn | 6:09 PM | Illinois -2.5 | 139.5 |
| No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 1 Arizona | 8:49 PM | Michigan -1.5 | 157.5 |
Value for Bettors
The Final Four is set for Indianapolis. Following a dramatic Sunday where UConn erased a 19-point deficit to stun top-seed Duke and Michigan dismantled Tennessee by 33 points, we have our four remaining contenders for the 2026 National Championship.
Latest Odds Summary (National Championship)
The market has narrowed significantly, with the two remaining 1-seeds (Arizona and Michigan) viewed as a tier above the rest.
| Team | Current Odds | Final Four Matchup | Trend |
| Arizona | +165 | vs. (1) Michigan | Favorite to win it all after 12 straight wins. |
| Michigan | +180 | vs. (1) Arizona | Scored 90+ points in every tournament game. |
| Illinois | +475 | vs. (2) UConn | KenPom’s tallest team; elite defensive length. |
| UConn | +550 | vs. (3) Illinois | Defending repeat champs (2023, 2024). |
1. The “Championship Pedigree” Bet: UConn (+550)
UConn is currently the “longest shot” on the board, which is surprising for a program that has won 18 consecutive tournament games when reaching the second weekend.
- The Logic: They just knocked out the tournament’s #1 overall seed (Duke) after trailing by 19 points. Dan Hurley has proven he can win “the ugly game” and the “track meet.”
- Why it’s Value: Getting the two-time defending champs at +550 while they face a 3-seed (Illinois) next is a gift. If they beat Illinois on Saturday, these odds will drop toward +200 or lower for the final.
2. The “Defensive Wall” Bet: Illinois (+475)
Illinois hasn’t allowed any opponent to shoot better than 39% during this tournament run.
- The Logic: They have a clear path to the final if their height (featuring David Mirkovic) can bother UConn’s perimeter-heavy offense.
- Why it’s Value: By avoiding the Michigan/Arizona “heavyweight” semifinal, Illinois has a 50% chance to be in the title game. At nearly 5-to-1, you are getting a massive ROI on a team that has already beaten defensive powerhouses like Houston.
3. The “Coin Flip” Play: Michigan (+180)
Arizona (+165) and Michigan (+180) are essentially co-favorites, but the market is giving a slight edge to the Wildcats.
- The Logic: Michigan has been the most dominant offensive team in the field, led by Midwest MOP Yaxel Lendeborg, who is averaging 25 PPG in the tourney.
- Why it’s Value: If you want to bet on the “Big Two,” Michigan offers a slightly better payout for a team that has a higher offensive ceiling than Arizona right now.
Final Four Schedule (Saturday, April 4)
8:39 PM ET: (1) Michigan vs. (1) Arizona (TBS/TNT/truTV)
6:09 PM ET: (2) UConn vs. (3) Illinois (TBS/TNT/truTV)
What History Says About Final 4 Champions
Advanced analytics consistently show similar patterns among champions.
Typical title profile:
| Metric | Champion Benchmark |
|---|---|
| KenPom Offense | Top 40 |
| KenPom Defense | Top 25 |
| Seed | Usually 1–3 |
| National Ranking | Top 10 |
Since 2002, every champion has had top-40 offensive efficiency and top-25 defensive efficiency entering the tournament.
| Team | Seed | Offense (KenPom) | Defense (KenPom) | Fits All Criteria? |
| Michigan | 1 | 8th | 1st | Yes |
| Arizona | 1 | 7th | 3rd | Yes |
| UConn | 2 | 26th | 11th | Yes |
| Illinois | 3 | 2nd | 28th | No (Defense) |
