We filter tonight’s board using three signals: L5/L10 hit rate (how consistently a player has hit this line recently), DVP (how the opposing defense ranks against this position and prop type), and implied probability vs. line price (where the books are shading and whether it’s justified).
The picks below are the spots where all three align.
Last updated: 4:44 AM (MT). Lines and injury news current as of this time.
Best NBA Player Prop Picks Today – Sunday, May 10
Isaiah Joe | Points o3.5 | -115 vs. Lakers
The Lakers allow the most points to bench guards in the league, often struggling to rotate to perimeter shooters in the second unit. Joe has cleared 3.5 points in 100% of his last 10 games, making this one of the most consistent floors on the entire slate. At -115, the books are significantly undervaluing his consistency compared to the underlying hit rates.
Dean Wade | Three Pointers o0.5 | -225 vs. Detroit
Detroit is currently 26th in defending the perimeter over the last 15 games, leaving massive gaps for catch-and-shoot threats in the corners. Wade has connected on at least one triple in 10 of his last 10 games, showing an incredibly reliable floor for a single make. At -225, it’s heavily juiced, but it’s the safest anchor for any parlay tonight.
Tobias Harris | Points o18 | -137 vs. Cleveland
Cleveland has struggled with mobile forwards who can score in the midrange, ranking 24th in points allowed to the position over the last month. Harris has cleared 18 points in each of his last 5 games, showing a scoring floor that makes this line look conservative. At -137, this is a soft line for a player in this type of rhythm.
Alex Caruso | Three Pointers o0.5 | -216 vs. Lakers
The Lakers’ defense has been leaking corner threes all season, ranking bottom-5 in shots allowed to spot-up wings. Caruso has cleared this line in 5 of his last 5 games, proving he’s fully locked into his role as a spacing threat in the Thunder offense. At -216, the books are respecting the hit rate, but there’s still value here as a parlay leg.
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Best 4-Leg Parlay Option
- Leg 1: Isaiah Joe — Over 3.5 Points (-115)
- Leg 2: Dean Wade — Over 0.5 Three Pointers (-225)
- Leg 3: Tobias Harris — Over 18 Points (-137)
- Leg 4: Alex Caruso — Over 0.5 Three Pointers (-216)
Estimated Total Odds: ~+425 ($10 bet returns $52.50)
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NBA Props Cheat Sheet Today
Built specifically for parlay construction, our hit-rate tracking and DvP (defense vs. position) filters surface the best nightly opportunities in one place. As shown, many of the heavier moneyline prices align closely with high implied probabilities, reinforcing the edge behind these selections.
| Player | Prop / Line | Odds | IM Prob | L5 | L10 | DVP L5 | DVP L10 |
|---|
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NBA ALT Line Hit Rates Last 5 & 10 Games
NBA Props Top Alternate Lines 🏀
Saturday • May 9
| Player | Prop / Line | Odds | Imp Prob | L5 / L10 hit |
|---|
Most Bet NBA Props Tonight
A new feature here on Cleatz highlights the most bet NBA player props each night, sorted by game and overall ticket count.
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | Triple-Double | Yes | +3100 → |
| 2 | Anthony Edwards | Assists | 6+ | +200 → |
| 3 | Anthony Edwards | Points | 20+ | −364 → |
| 4 | Anthony Edwards | Assists | 8+ | +730 → |
| 5 | Anthony Edwards | Points | 25+ | −129 → |
| 6 | Stephon Castle | Triple-Double | Yes | +4300 → |
| 7 | Victor Wembanyama | Double-Double | Yes | −407 → |
| 8 | Terrence Shannon Jr. | Points | 8+ | −142 → |
| 9 | Jaden McDaniels | Points | 15+ | −170 → |
| 10 | Anthony Edwards | Rebounds | Over 5.5 | −136 → |
| 11 | Anthony Edwards | Rebounds | 6+ | −137 → |
| 12 | Ayo Dosunmu | Pts+Reb+Ast | Over 18.5 | −112 → |
| 13 | Naz Reid | Rebounds | Over 6.5 | +100 → |
| 14 | Victor Wembanyama | Points | 25+ | −163 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen B | Points | 25+ | −197 → |
| 2 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Triple-Double | Yes | +1240 → |
| 3 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Assists | 5+ | −164 → |
| 4 | Jalen B | Points | 20+ | −640 → |
| 5 | Tyrese Maxey | Points | 25+ | −116 → |
| 6 | Josh Hart | Triple-Double | Yes | +3000 → |
| 7 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Assists | 6+ | +111 → |
| 8 | Paul George | 3-Pointers | 3+ | −150 → |
| 9 | Tyrese Maxey | Assists | 6+ | −171 → |
| 10 | Joel Embiid | Points | 35+ | +469 → |
| 11 | Paul George | 3-Pointers | Over 2.5 | −145 → |
| 12 | Tyrese Maxey | Points | 20+ | −340 → |
| 13 | Mikal Bridges | Points | Over 14.5 | −126 → |
| 14 | Mikal Bridges | Points | 15+ | −125 → |
| 15 | Jalen B | Points | 30+ | +139 → |
| 16 | Kelly Oubre Jr. | Points | 12+ | −152 → |
| 17 | Joel Embiid | Pts+Reb+Ast | Under 38.5 | −113 → |
| 18 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Assists | Over 5.5 | +111 → |
| 19 | Joel Embiid | Triple-Double | Yes | +4100 → |
| 20 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Double-Double | Yes | −218 → |
NBA First Basket Scorer Hit Rates & Odds
Who will score the first basket today?
- Mikal Bridges (NYK) has scored the first basket in 4 of his last 11 games (+30.50 Units / 277% ROI)
- Jaden McDaniels (MIN) has scored the first basket in 3 of his last 10 games (+22.10 Units / 221% ROI)
- Jalen Brunson (NYK) has scored the first basket in 5 of his last 9 away games (+18.63 Units / 207% ROI)
- VJ Edgecombe (PHI) has scored the first basket in 3 of his last 11 games at home (+15.88 Units / 144% ROI)
- Victor Wembanyama (SAS) has scored the first basket in 4 of his last 7 away games (+12.11 Units / 173% ROI
Tie these in with our NBA public bets data to get off to a winning start tonight.
CLEATZ TOP SPORTSBOOKS & PREDICTION MARKETS FOR NBA PROPS
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NBA Player Props FAQ
DVP stands for Defense vs. Position — a metric that measures how well a team defends against a specific position and prop type. A DVP of 100% on the Over for point guard assists means the defense has allowed that stat line to hit at the highest possible rate over the tracked sample. On Cleatz, we display DVP for both the last 5 and last 10 games so you can see whether a defensive weakness is a recent trend or a season-long pattern. The most actionable spots are where a player’s personal hit rate and the opposing DVP both point in the same direction — that’s when the edge is backed by two independent signals, not just one.
Alt lines are alternate versions of a player prop at a different number than the main posted line, offered at adjusted odds. If a player’s standard points line is 22.5, the sportsbook will also offer alternate lines like 17.5 at -280 or 27.5 at +210. Alt lines matter because the main line is often the sharpest, most-bet number — the books have priced out most of the value. Moving to a lower alt line can give you a significantly higher hit rate at a price that still pays well enough to show a long-term profit. Our alt lines section surfaces the specific alternate numbers with the best combination of hit rate and implied probability, so you’re not just buying down blindly.
Hit rate tells you how often a player has cleared a specific line over a recent sample — but the number only matters when it’s paired with implied probability. A player who hits a prop 70% of the time at -110 (52.4% implied probability) is a strong +EV bet. That same player at -280 (73.7% implied) is borderline breakeven. The process: find props where the hit rate meaningfully exceeds the implied probability baked into the odds, then check whether the matchup (DVP) supports the trend continuing. Hit rate alone is a starting point — it becomes a real edge when the price hasn’t caught up to the data.
No single sportsbook wins across all prop types — line shopping across at least two or three books is the most valuable habit a prop bettor can build. That said, FanDuel and DraftKings typically post the widest NBA prop menus and sharpest main lines. BetMGM often has better numbers on combo props (points + rebounds + assists). For alt lines specifically, bet365 and Caesars tend to price them more loosely. The practical move: identify your best play using our hit rate and DVP data, then check two or three books before placing — a swing from -115 to +100 on the same prop is a 15% improvement in your long-term return on that bet type.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
