START WINNING!
Ohtani Owns Both Boards: A 100% NRFI Arm Who’s Also a Top-Five HR Bat
MLB best bets today, Friday, July 3, 2026 · the Coors wind-in trap returns at 20mph, public money piles 98% on the chalk, and a +14408 HR lottery
Today’s Headlines
One player anchors both ends of tonight’s board. Shohei Ohtani starts on the mound with a perfect 100% NRFI record in 2026 (13-0) — the backbone of the day’s strong NRFI against Michael King — and he’s simultaneously a top-five home-run bat at +270. Around him, the slate splits into signal and trap: Rafael Devers owns the slate-high 32.1% HR rate, but Coors has the wind blowing in at 20mph — the best number on the board sits in the worst conditions, so price all three Rockies-park bats accordingly. The cleaner power spot is Ben Rice at Yankee Stadium, today’s best HR conditions. No sharp-split board in the pack, so the money read is the Most-Bet consensus: 98% of tickets on the Yankees and Dodgers — ride-or-fade context, not a sharp signal.
| Play | Type | Price | Cleatz edge | Conditions | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rafael Devers SFG @ COL | HRHR | +290 | 32.1% HR rate | Wind in | Slate-high rate, but Coors wind blowing IN 20mph, trap watch |
Hunter Goodman SFG @ COL | HRHR | +301 | 30.7% HR rate | Wind in | Second Coors bat, same 20mph wind in, opener TBD |
Ben Rice MIN @ NYY | HRHR | +240 | 29.3% HR rate | Tailwind | Yankee Stadium, slate-best +9% HR conditions, best +240 (FD) |
Nick Kurtz MIA @ ATH | HRHR | +215 | 29.1% HR rate | Neutral | Sutter Health Park vs Tyler Phillips, +11.0% Kalshi EV |
Shohei Ohtani SDP @ LAD | HRHR | +270 | 28.5% HR rate | Neutral | Also starts on the mound tonight, +7.5% Kalshi EV |
Casey Schmitt SFG @ COL | HRHR | +346 | 28.0% HR rate | Wind in | Third Coors bat into the 20mph wind in, price it accordingly |
Yordan Alvarez TBR @ HOU | HRHR | +265 | 28.0% HR rate | Roofed | Best +265 (B365) vs Nick Martinez, roof game |
Jordan Walker STL @ CHC | HRHR | +290 | 27.5% HR rate | Neutral | Wrigley vs Peterson, 76% first-pitch rain risk, delay watch |
Jack Perkins MIA @ ATH | KStrikeouts | O5.5 | +1.93 K edge | Model edge | Top pick, model 7.4 vs 5.5 at Sutter Health Park |
Gavin Williams CWS @ CLE | KStrikeouts | O6.5 | +1.33 K edge | Model edge | Lean, model 7.8 vs 6.5 line at Progressive |
Foster Griffin PIT @ WSH | KStrikeouts | O6.5 | +0.88 K edge | Model edge | Model 7.4 vs 6.5, quiet edge in Washington |
King vs Ohtani SDP @ LAD | NRFINRFI | -125 | 68 board score | Lean | Ohtani 100% NRFI in 2026 (13-0), King 94.1%, elite duel (lean) |
Yankees ML MIN @ NYY | PUBLICMoneyline | -187 | 98% most-bet consensus | Consensus | Heaviest public side on the board vs Twins |
Dodgers ML SDP @ LAD | PUBLICMoneyline | -258 | 98% most-bet consensus | Consensus | Public chalk behind Ohtani, steep price |
Brewers ML MIL @ ARI | PUBLICMoneyline | -149 | 97% most-bet consensus | Consensus | Third-heaviest public side, on the road in Arizona |
🌬 The wind-in trap, and a Wrigley rain watch
Pitchers catch a break where the wind blows in: Coors (20mph NNE) and Truist Park (8mph WNW). That’s the trap — Devers, Goodman and Schmitt all carry big HR rates into an air current that’s knocking fly balls down. The friendliest carry is Yankee Stadium (+9%, slate’s best). One watch item: Cardinals–Cubs at Wrigley carries a 76% first-pitch rain chance — a delay risk to track, so confirm status before lock on the MLB weather tool.
📊 Public money, not sharp money, today
No sharp-split board in today’s pack, so the read is the Most-Bet consensus: Yankees −187 and Dodgers −258 each hold 98% of tickets, with the Brewers (97%) right behind. Treat it as crowd context — the heaviest chalk on the board, priced like it — rather than a smart-money signal. Full boards on sharp vs public.
The Ohtani Double
3-LEGHR Lottery — Fri, Jul 3
3-LEG PARLAYFor entertainment and informational purposes only. Odds were accurate at publish and move quickly — confirm starters, lineups and prices at your book before the first pitch. Must be 21+ and physically present in a state with legal wagering. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
START WINNING!
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
