Prediction Market Revenue: Monthly Fees & Volume by Platform

A data-driven look at a sector generating more than $120 million a month, and who’s capturing it.

Prediction markets crossed an important threshold in 2026. What looked like a novelty during the 2024 election cycle now resembles a legitimate financial venue. The sector is clearing more than $20 billion in notional volume per month, generating north of $100 million in monthly fees, and attracting valuations that put it in the conversation with mid-tier fintech firms.

At CLEATZ, we track the space closely. What follows is our first consolidated monthly revenue view for 2026, built using Dune Analytics data, public reporting, and a transparent estimation framework for months where platform-level figures are not yet fully confirmed.

2026 Monthly Revenue at a Glance

The table below combines notional volume and estimated fee revenue for each month to date in 2026. March is the only month in the set with confirmed platform-level revenue breakdowns. January and February are estimated by applying the observed blended take rate of roughly 0.48% to reported monthly volume, then allocating platform share based on March’s observed mix.

Estimated: January and February revenue figures are derived from reported notional volume and the observed blended take rate. March figures are based on Dune Analytics data via @datadashboards. Kalshi and Crypto.com revenue remain estimated because neither platform publicly discloses fee figures directly.

Four Takeaways From Q1 2026

1. Kalshi is capturing nearly all of the fee pool

Polymarket may lead in transaction count, 115 million transfers in March versus Kalshi’s 88 million, but the revenue split is nowhere close. Kalshi generated an estimated $110 million in March fees, or roughly 90% of all industry revenue that month. Polymarket, which only began charging fees on a subset of markets in early 2026, generated about $4.3 million. The gap comes down to structure: Polymarket still offers many zero-fee markets, while Kalshi monetizes every contract.

2. January was the high-water mark, but the trend remains strong

Notional volume hit an all-time high of $26.75 billion in January, dropped to $23.24 billion in February, then rebounded to $25.70 billion in March. Revenue moved almost in lockstep, suggesting the blended take rate has remained remarkably steady at about 0.48% through the quarter. That matters because it gives analysts a simple working model: volume is the leading indicator, and revenue tends to follow within a narrow range.

3. Sports is the engine

In March 2026, sports event contracts made up 56.7% of all prediction market trading volume, $13.69 billion out of roughly $24.1 billion tracked across six major platforms. On Kalshi alone, sports drove 87% of monthly volume. That is the headline. The future of the category is not mainly about politics or macroeconomic events. It is about whether these platforms can continue to convert traditional sportsbook behavior into event-contract trading.

4. The long tail exists, but it is still tiny

Outside of Kalshi and Polymarket, the rest of the field, Crypto.com, Limitless Exchange, Opinion, predict.fun, Overtime, Gemini, Myriad, Azuro, Rainbow Predictions, and Interactive Brokers account for less than 7% of total industry fee revenue. A few of these platforms are growing quickly off small bases, but none are remotely close to the two leaders. For now, this remains a two-horse race.

A Note on Methodology

Prediction market revenue is not published in one clean, consolidated feed. Dune Analytics, through the @datadashboards dashboard, provides weekly fee snapshots that combine on-chain platform data with estimated figures for platforms such as Kalshi and Crypto.com, neither of which publishes fee data directly.

March 2026 is the only full month in our current series where those weekly snapshots and outside reporting line up well enough to support a defensible total.

For January and February, we estimate revenue using two observed constants. First, the blended industry take rate, fees as a percentage of notional volume, has held near 0.48%. Second, platform revenue share has remained relatively stable month to month.

Applying those assumptions to January’s confirmed $26.75 billion in volume and February’s $23.24 billion produces the estimates shown in the table. These numbers are useful for trend tracking, but they should be viewed as directional rather than precise. As reporting improves, particularly regarding Kalshi’s annualized revenue run rate, we will update the model.

What to Watch in Q2

Three developments are likely to shape the April-through-June picture.

First, Polymarket’s infrastructure overhaul, announced on April 6, including its new Polymarket USD collateral token, could introduce a new revenue stream tied to collateral yield, which is not reflected in current fee accounting.

Second, regulatory pressure is building. Arizona’s criminal gambling charges against Kalshi, along with the broader state-versus-federal fight over CFTC oversight, could slow growth if the courts rule against the platforms.

Third, the sports calendar remains the biggest swing factor. The NBA playoffs, the opening stretch of MLB, and the run-up to the FIFA World Cup will go a long way toward determining whether April holds March’s pace or pushes beyond it.

Based on the first week of April, which produced $40.19 million in fees and annualizes to roughly $175 million for the month, the sector is tracking ahead of March. We’ll revisit the numbers once April closes.