Polymarket is officially active in the United States and is quickly becoming one of the most popular ways for Americans to trade real-money predictions on politics, sports-related events, financial outcomes, entertainment, and more. The platform has secured regulatory approval and is now operating under a fully compliant structure in the U.S. through regulated intermediaries.
If you want to join one of the fastest-growing prediction markets in the world, Cleatz readers can use promo code CLEATZ when signing up.
Polymarket Promo Code (April 2026)
| Polymarket Promo Code | Details |
|---|---|
| 💰 Polymarket Promo Code Bonus Offer | DEPOSIT $20 & GET A 20 FREE TRADE |
| 🚨 Promo Code | CLEATZ |
| 🇺🇸 Available States | Available Now in the US |
| 📲 Polymarket App Available Platforms | iOS (Apple App Store), Android (Google Play) |
| 💲 Minimum Deposit | No Minimum Deposit |
| ✅ Polymarket Promo Last Verified | April 19, 2026 – No Expiration Date |
Polymarket Promos vs. Other Prediction Market Promos
| Prediction Markets | Polymarket | Kalshi Promo Code | Novig Promo Code |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💰 Sign-Up Bonus | Free $20 Bonus | $10 Sign-Up Bonus | 1,000 Novig Coins & Five (5) Novig Cash + 10% Off First Purchase (up to $100) |
| 🚨 Promo Code | CLEATZ | CLEATZ10 | CLEATZ |
| 💲 Bonus Type | Deposit $20 & Get $20 | Trade & Get | No-Deposit Offer + First Deposit Discount |
| 💵 Minimum Deposit | $10 | $10 | $5 |
| 📱 Mobile App | iOS (Apple App Store) & Android (Google Play) | iOS (Apple App Store) & Android (Google Play) | iOS (Apple App Store) & Android (Google Play) |
| 🎂 Minimum Age | 18 | 18 | 21 |
Trending Polymarket Trades & News Today
Polymarket Intelligence Report — Wednesday, April 15, 2026 — Tax Day
High-stakes Tax Day: Warsh disclosure, NBA Play-In & ceasefire countdown
Following the bombshell financial disclosure of Fed nominee Kevin Warsh’s personal stake in the platform, Polymarket is seeing unprecedented institutional interest. The NBA Play-In opened last night, a Middle East ceasefire ticks toward its deadline, and the DHS shutdown hits Day 60—all while traders navigate the most politicized prediction market environment in the platform’s history. Compare odds across platforms with our best prediction market apps guide.
Market 1
🏀 NBA Play-In: Championship odds reshuffled Live
The NBA Play-In Tournament officially tipped off Tuesday night, and “Winner Advances” contracts were the highest-volume sports markets on the board. Two results are already in, with first-round series odds now pricing in.
| Team | Odds / Status | Market Narrative |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 43% (Yes) | Surged from 35% this morning; the clear favorite to win the 2026 title—market opened at $0.35 and printed $0.43 in a single session. |
| Charlotte Hornets | Settled — Advanced | Stunned the Heat 112–104 last night; “To make Playoffs” contract settled to 100¢. A massive payout for anyone holding the “Yes” side. |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Settled — Advanced | Edged the Suns in a coin-flip thriller; now trading in 1st Round series odds markets. Moneyline longs cashed. |
| San Antonio Spurs | 15% (Yes) | The leading “value” pick behind OKC. Traders betting on a Victor Wembanyama deep run are getting +$5.60 implied per dollar. |
Market 2
🏛️ The “Warsh Effect”: Prediction market legitimacy Breaking
The platform is vibrating from Tuesday’s financial disclosure by Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair. His Senate-filed disclosure revealed stakes in Polymarket, SpaceX, and more than 30 crypto projects including Solana and dYdX.
The probability of the Federal Clarity Act passing in 2026 has jumped to 54% as traders bet that a pro-prediction-market Fed Chair will effectively defuse the Schiff-Curtis “Gambling Act” momentum that has shadowed the industry since 2025. This is the most significant single-day regulatory re-pricing since the Commodity Exchange Act preemption cases cleared federal court. Platforms on our best prediction market apps list would all benefit from a Warsh-led regulatory shift.
Market 3
🕊️ Geopolitics: The ceasefire clock Top Volume
The U.S.–Iran Ceasefire remains the top non-sports volume driver with over $700M across all related contracts. The original truce took hold April 7th and expires April 21—the same day as the Warsh hearing, creating a rare convergence of political risk events on one calendar date.
Swiss-led back-channel negotiations, reported by Reuters Middle East desk, have driven a 10-point weekend surge in extension probability. The platform is simultaneously navigating PR fallout from an AP investigation identifying 50+ accounts that made “suspiciously accurate” bets on the April 7th truce announcement—a controversy that predates the Warsh story but has gained fresh attention alongside it.
Market 4
🏢 Politics: DHS Shutdown — Day 60 Trending
The partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security hit the two-month mark today, and traders are losing patience with Senate leadership. Today is Tax Day, and the irony of a federal agency being dark while Americans file returns is not lost on the commentary feeding into prediction market sentiment.
Disagreements over the SAVE Act border security provisions in the House are blocking a clean floor vote, with Congressional observers noting that the bill’s bundled immigration language has zero bipartisan support in the current Senate. The 12-point drop in one week signals the market is beginning to price in a scenario where May 1 comes and goes without resolution. Cross-reference DHS funding odds on Kalshi, which carries its own version of the contract.
When will the DHS shutdown end?Market 5
⚾ MLB: Midweek moneylines Partnership
The $300M MLB partnership continues to drive heavy daily liquidity using official Sportradar data. Today’s featured matchup is a coin-flip: Cleveland Guardians (49%) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (51%), with public money overwhelmingly backing the Guardians’ moneyline despite the market leaning Cardinals.
The LA Dodgers at +230 remain the overwhelming market leader to repeat as World Series champions—the largest single-team implied probability among all active title futures on the platform. The public money vs. sharp money split on today’s Guardians–Cardinals line is one of the cleaner “fade the public” setups available midweek. See how MLB lines compare side-by-side with our best prediction market apps breakdown.
MLB 2026 Season HubMarket 6
📈 Crypto: Hyperliquid (HYPE) momentum Trending
After absorbing a massive token unlock that would have crushed most DeFi projects, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is trending at $43.80. The daily goal market—“HYPE > $45.00 by Friday”—is currently at 38%, reflecting cautious optimism tied to the protocol’s new mainnet features.
The 38% probability implies the market needs a roughly 2.7% move in under 48 hours—well within HYPE’s recent ATR but requiring a catalyst. The mainnet feature launch is the primary bullish trigger on watchlists. Track live HYPE price data on CoinMarketCap alongside the prediction market contract for a real-time comparison. Broader crypto event contracts are also available across platforms on our best prediction market apps list.
Whale Tracker
Cleatz whale tracker — April 15 update Tax Day Edition
Live activity tracked across Polymarket and Kalshi. Today’s session is defined by the Warsh disclosure driving regulatory re-positioning and ceasefire extension bets accumulating ahead of the April 21 deadline.
| Wallet alias | Last move | Market | Result / Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Diplomat | BOUGHT $2.1M Buy | Ceasefire Extended (Yes) | Doubling down on Swiss mediation optimism ahead of April 21 expiry |
| RegArb.eth | BOUGHT $880K Buy | Federal Clarity Act — Yes 2026 | New entrant; went long immediately after Warsh disclosure went public |
| 0xbc…11A2 | HODL Hold | OKC Championship (Yes) | Sitting on a +$340K unrealized gain since opening at 0.35; refusing to trim |
| The General | SOLD −$620K | DHS Funded by May 1 | Exited “Yes” position as Senate impasse deepened; took a significant L |
Key Differences: Polymarket vs. Kalshi
| Feature | 🔵 Polymarket | 🟢 Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Legal status | Recently returned to the U.S. | Fully legal in all 50 states |
| Infrastructure | Blockchain-based, decentralized | Traditional, centralized exchange |
| Trading fees | Zero fees on all trades | Modest fees on winning trades |
| Market variety | Entertainment, sports, tech, viral moments | Regulated markets: politics, economics, sports |
| Transparency | Full blockchain transparency | Standard platform transparency |
Kalshi vs. Polymarket
KALSHI
Pros
- Easy to access
Robinhood integration, normal bank account, your non-crypto friends can actually use it - Regulated (CFTC)
Fought the legal battles that opened the door for every other US prediction market - They make money
Fees suck for traders but it means they have an actual business model
Cons
- Fees make forecasts worse
~several cents to move a 50¢ market. That’s a wide band of “close enough” baked into every price - Can’t see the data
No individual trades, no order flow, no way to do wallet-level analysis - Fewer markets
Limited geopolitical markets
POLYMARKET
Pros
- Better forecasts
No fees so prices actually reflect probability. This is why media cites Poly - All data is public
Every trade is on-chain. You can do real detective work - More markets, global access
Geopolitical, war, culture. Crypto rails so anyone worldwide can trade - Where everyone checks first
The go-to source traders and media trust most for real-time odds
Cons
- No KYC
Harder to catch manipulation, wash trading, sketchy war market activity - US legal gray area
Regulatory risk is real and unresolved - How do they make money?
No fees = great for users but what’s the long-term plan here
Pros and Cons of Using Polymarket
| 👍 Pros | 👎 Cons |
|---|---|
| Zero trading fees make it extremely cost-effective for active traders | Not ideal for users who prefer fiat-only trading |
| Huge menu of markets: sports, politics, entertainment, business, culture | Requires some knowledge of crypto & wallets |
| Real-time odds reflect actual market sentiment (not sportsbook margins) | Lower liquidity possible in niche markets |
| Ability to sell positions early to lock in profits | Crypto onboarding may be a barrier for beginners |
| Full blockchain transparency for all activity | Volatile gas fees at peak activity times |
| Daily liquidity rewards incentivize keeping balanced positions |
Where is Polymarket Legal? (March 2026 State Guide)
As of March 2026, Polymarket operates in the U.S. under a CFTC-regulated “Intermediate Access” model. While technically legal at the federal level, the platform is currently in a “limited rollout” phase. Access is primarily granted to users who have cleared the official waitlist or possess an invite code for the regulated U.S. app.
Fully Operational States (Waitlist/Invite Only)
In states without active legal challenges, the U.S. version of Polymarket is fully operational for its available contract types (currently focused on Sports and Economics, with Politics rolling out gradually).
- Key States: California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and 30+ others.
- Note: While California and Texas do not have legal sports betting, Polymarket is accessible there because it is regulated as a derivatives exchange, not a sportsbook.
Restricted or Contested States
Like Kalshi, Polymarket is currently facing a “tug-of-war” with state regulators who argue that sports-event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling. If you are in these states, you may be geofenced from specific sports markets.
| State | Status | Restriction Detail |
| Tennessee | Restricted | Cease-and-desist issued (Jan 2026); sports-related contracts are currently halted. |
| Nevada | Restricted | Gaming Control Board lawsuit seeking to block sports event contracts. |
| Massachusetts | Restricted | Following the Jan 2026 injunction against Kalshi, sports contracts are restricted. |
| New York | Contested | State Gaming Commission issued a C&D; currently in “standstill” pending court ruling. |
| Maryland | Contested | Active litigation; users may see blocks on specific local sports events. |
| New Jersey | Contested | State is appealing federal preemption; legal status is currently in flux. |
| Connecticut | Contested | Active regulatory review of “event contracts” involving athletic outcomes. |
Key Compliance Differences (2026)
Unlike the global version of Polymarket, the U.S. Regulated App requires:
- Strict KYC: Full identity verification (SSN/ID) is mandatory.
- Broker Funding: You cannot trade directly via a crypto wallet (e.g., MetaMask). Funds must be deposited through CFTC-approved brokers.
- MLB Integrity Pact: As of March 19, 2026, Polymarket is the exclusive partner of MLB, meaning baseball markets use official league data for settlement.
What You Can Trade on Polymarket Right Now
Polymarket is known for offering fast-moving event markets that reflect real-time public sentiment. Active U.S. markets include categories such as:
Politics
- Election outcomes
- Debate performance
- Policy announcements
Financial and Economic events
- Federal Reserve decisions
- CPI and inflation predictions
- Stock and crypto-related outcomes
Sports Related & Adjacent Markets
Sports-based contracts are still carefully reviewed by regulators, but Polymarket now offers a growing number of sports-adjacent markets, including the Super Bowl, with more expansion expected as guidelines evolve. Barron’s recently reported that regulators are still evaluating which sports contracts can be offered under current CFTC rules.
Entertainment and Pop Culture
- Award show results
- Celebrity events
- Streaming competition outcomes
The variety and speed of Polymarket’s markets are exactly why the platform has grown into a leading global prediction exchange.
How U.S. Access Works
Regulated intermediary onboarding
U.S. users do not deposit directly on Polymarket. Instead, they join through a regulated intermediary that handles onboarding, funding, compliance checks, and trade execution.
Real-time trading with global liquidity
Once connected through an intermediary, users are part of Polymarket’s global liquidity pool, which provides tighter spreads and faster price movement.
Smooth Rollout
Yahoo Finance noted that Polymarket began operating in the U.S. in a controlled-access format before expanding to broader availability.
How to Buy Shares on Polymarket
So you want to buy shares on Polymarket. Great choice. It’s like the stock market, except you’re betting on things that actually matter… like elections, celebrity divorces, and whether your favorite NFL coach survives another week.
Here’s how to pretend you’re a seasoned prediction-market wizard:
1. Connect and Fund Your Wallet
Step one: Attach your crypto wallet.
Step two: Then deposit some USDC.
Once your wallet is funded, congratulations, you’re now financially invested in the fate of humanity.
2. Browse the Markets
Polymarket has prediction markets on everything:
- Politics
- Sports
- Pop culture
- And whatever else the internet is collectively panicking about today
Each market shows the price of “Yes” and “No” shares, aka the market’s best guess at the odds.
If “Yes” is 73 cents, the world thinks there’s a 73% chance of that thing happening. Whether the world is right is… debatable.
3. Choose Your Side
Now it’s decision time.
- Think the event WILL happen? Buy “Yes.”
- Think everyone else is an idiot? Buy “No.”
You can:
- Market order: Buy immediately like an impatient person.
- Limit order: Set your price and smugly wait for someone to meet your terms.
Either way, you’re now officially “a trader.” Go ahead, tell your friends.
4. Understand Pricing and Payouts
Each share costs whatever the market probability is.
If “Yes” costs $0.60 and you drop $60, you get 100 shares.
If you’re right, each share pays out $1.
If you’re wrong, your shares become digital confetti.
5. Manage Your Position Like a Pro
You don’t have to hold until the bitter end.
You can:
- Sell for a profit
- Sell for a loss
- Pretend you meant to do that
If prices move your way, take your victory lap early. If they don’t… well, at least you learned something. Probably.
6. Market Resolution
When the event is over, Polymarket confirms the result and settles everything.
- Winners get $1 per share
- Losers get a harsh lesson in humility
How Payouts Work
Polymarket’s payout system is simple: Buy for less than $1. Get $1 if you’re right. Bask in glory.
There are three ways to make money:
1. Hold Until the End
Example: Buy 100 “Yes” shares at $0.40.
If “Yes” wins, you get $100.
You spent $40.
Profit: $60.
Smugness level: elite.
2. Trade Before the Event Even Happens
Buy at $0.30, sell at $0.70, profit $0.40 per share—before reality even shows up.
You basically front-ran the news cycle. Nice.
3. Earn Liquidity Rewards
Place smart limit orders and let Polymarket pay you for improving the market.
It’s like earning interest… but cooler, and you don’t have to pretend to understand APR.
Why Bettors and Traders Love Polymarket
Prediction markets often price information faster than traditional sportsbooks or financial media. They react instantly to:
- Breaking injury news
- Shifts in election polling
- Market announcements
- Rumors and insider sentiment
- Economic data leaks
- Social media catalysts
For bettors and traders who thrive on fast information, Polymarket provides a completely different way to stay ahead of the curve.
Polymarket Payment Methods
Polymarket offers a range of secure and reliable payment options for both deposits and withdrawals. Users can fund their accounts using credit cards, cryptocurrency, or traditional bank transfers.
Supported credit cards include Mastercard and Visa. Crypto options currently available are USDT, DAI, ETH, WETH, MATIC, POL, SOL, CBBTC, and ARB. Bank transfers are also supported, giving users an additional safe and straightforward way to move funds in and out of Polymarket.
| Polymarket Payment Methods | Deposits | Withdrawals |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Cards (Mastercard, Visa) | Yes | Yes |
| Crypto (USDT, DAI, ETH, WETH, MATIC, POL, SOL, CBBTC, ARB) | Yes | Yes |
| Bank Transfer | Yes | Yes |
Polymarket Promo Code FAQ
The Polymarket promo code for our readers is CLEATZ. We will always recommend looking for the best new-trader bonus offer on Polymarket.
The minimum age to use Polymarket is 18.
Polymarket allows users to trade on sports prediction market outcomes on a fee-free platform; sports betting pits the user against the house.
Users on Polymarket can earn Liquidity Rewards when they place orders that help the balance and activity of the market.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
