June is supposed to be dead.
That has always been one of the sacred rules of the sports betting calendar. Football is gone. March Madness is ancient history. The NBA and NHL wrap up. Baseball is grinding through the dog days. Operators, affiliates, media companies, and bettors all brace for the same thing:
The summer lull.
Except this year, the app download data is screaming something very different.
Over the last 30 days on the U.S. Apple App Store, the top sports betting and prediction market apps looked like this:
🥇 Kalshi: 1.98 million downloads
🥈 Polymarket: 1.14 million downloads
🥉 DraftKings: 490,000 downloads
That is not a quiet June.
That is a category reset.
Kalshi Is Monstering Everyone
There is no softer way to say it: Kalshi is absolutely eating.
Nearly 2 million U.S. Apple App Store downloads in 30 days is an absurd number for any betting-adjacent app, let alone one operating in a category that most casual users barely understood a year ago.
This is the kind of download gap that makes the rest of the board look like they are playing a different sport.
Kalshi did not just edge out DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, or bet365. It more than quadrupled DraftKings’ downloads and put nearly 7x the number of downloads on FanDuel.
That is not “nice momentum.”
That is a freight train.
Prediction markets are no longer some niche product for finance nerds, election junkies, and crypto-adjacent traders. The user behavior is starting to look mainstream. People are downloading these apps because they want to trade outcomes, not just bet point spreads.
And when the biggest story in the sports world is the World Cup, that matters.
Polymarket Is in Beast Mode Too
Polymarket sitting at 1.14 million downloads is also a monster number.
The app has cleaned up. The product feels more accessible. The acquisition machine is clearly turned on. And most importantly, Polymarket understands something many sportsbooks still struggle with:
People like betting on the story. Not just the game. Not just the spread. Not just the total.
They want to trade the moment.
Will the U.S. advance? Will a favorite crash out? Will a superstar score? Will some global political chaos spill into the market? Will the World Cup deliver another “wait, what just happened?” result?
Prediction markets are built for that kind of behavior.
The user does not have to think like a traditional sports bettor. They can think like a news consumer, a fan, a trader, or a person who simply has an opinion and wants action on it.
That is powerful.
DraftKings Is Creating Distance
Among the traditional sportsbooks, DraftKings continues to look like the strongest horse.
DraftKings posted 490,000 downloads over the last 30 days, meaningfully ahead of FanDuel at 311,000.
That gap matters.
For years, DraftKings and FanDuel have been locked in the same sentence. DK and FD. FD and DK. The two-headed monster of U.S. sports betting.
But if this download trend continues, DraftKings may start creating real separation as the clear No. 1 sportsbook brand.
The reason is simple: DraftKings feels more culturally aggressive. More product-forward. More willing to experiment. More willing to live in the daily betting conversation.
FanDuel is still massive, obviously. Nobody is declaring them dead. But DraftKings looks like the operator with the stronger current pull.
PrizePicks Turned the Credit Card Back On
PrizePicks at 376,000 downloads is another major signal.
After a stretch where the daily fantasy/pick’em space felt like it was absorbing regulatory punches from every direction, PrizePicks appears to be back in serious acquisition mode.
That is good for the category.
PrizePicks has always been one of the best examples of what happens when a product feels simple, mobile-native, and built for casual sports fans. You do not need to understand vig, alternate lines, derivative markets, or sportsbook mechanics. You pick players. You build an entry. You sweat the stats.
That frictionless experience is still valuable.
And the fact PrizePicks is sitting ahead of FanDuel in download volume over the last 30 days should get attention.
Hard Rock Is Sneaky Strong
Hard Rock Bet showing 160,000 downloads is not the loudest number on the board, but it is interesting.
Hard Rock continues to have a real angle in bilingual markets, casino-led acquisition, and soccer-heavy audiences. With the World Cup driving international interest and casual sports traffic, that positioning matters.
Not every operator has to win the same way.
DraftKings may win with product depth and sports betting mindshare. FanDuel may win with scale. Kalshi and Polymarket may win by expanding the category. Hard Rock has a different lane: brand, casino, Florida gravity, and culturally relevant soccer markets.
That is not nothing.
The World Cup Is Doing Its Job
The World Cup appears to be living up to the industry’s most optimistic expectations.
Maybe more than that.
For years, the U.S. sports betting industry has talked about the 2026 World Cup like it could be a once-in-a-generation customer acquisition event. The global audience. The U.S. host cities. The casual fan interest. The national team upside. The time-zone advantage.
Now we are seeing early signs that the hype may be real.
If the U.S. keeps kicking goals, the entire betting and prediction market industry gets a tailwind.
The Bigger Point: Seasonality May Be Dead
This is the real takeaway. The old sports betting calendar had dead zones. June and July were supposed to be quieter. Operators waited for football. Affiliates waited for football. Bettors waited for football.
But prediction markets change the rhythm. There is always something to trade.
World Cup. Elections. Fed decisions. Crypto. Golf majors. MLB. NFL training camp. Transfers. Geopolitics. Entertainment. Legal decisions. Weather events. Whatever the internet is yelling about that day.
Traditional sportsbooks are tied to the sports calendar. Prediction markets are tied to attention.
That is a much bigger calendar.
Futbol, Football and Almost No Downtime
The next few months could be ridiculous.
We have World Cup action right now, then football 🏈 waiting right around the corner with NFL training camps, preseason markets, college football Week 0, futures, win totals, player props, survivor pools, and all the usual chaos.
There may only be a couple of quiet betting weeks left this year.
And based on the latest download data, the quiet weeks might not be all that quiet anymore.
The betting industry did not just get a summer boost.
It may have found a new year-round engine.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
