What KenPom rankings are (and how people use them)
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) rankings are a tempo-adjusted rating system for men’s college basketball that compares teams by how efficiently they score and defend per 100 possessions (so slow teams and fast teams can be evaluated on the same scale).
The core pieces you’ll see:
- AdjO (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent quality
- AdjD (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent quality
- AdjEM (Adjusted Efficiency Margin): AdjO − AdjD (the “overall power” number that drives the main ranking)
How they’re used:
- Power-rating teams beyond win/loss record (especially for “who’s actually good?” arguments)
- Projecting game outcomes (point spreads / win probabilities)
- Bracket + seeding context (committee talk, résumé vs. underlying strength)
- Matchup handicapping (elite offense vs. elite defense, imbalance red flags, etc.)
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Latest KenPom Rankings (FINAL 4) – Updated Thursday, April 2
2026 NCAA Tournament — Final Four KenPom Ratings & ATS
KenPom data through games of Sunday, March 29, 2026 · ATS updated through all Elite Eight results · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis · Saturday, April 4| KenPom | Seed | Team | Conf | W-L | Net Rtg | ORtg | DRtg | Champ Odds | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀 Semifinal 1 — Sat. April 4 · 6:09 PM · TBS Illinois −1.5 O/U 139.5 | |||||||||
| #4 | (3) | Illinois | B10 | 28-8 | +34.41 | 131.8 | 97.4 | +425 | 22-14 |
| #9 | (2) | UConn | BE | 33-5 | +29.11 | 122.8 | 93.7 | +700 | 17-21 |
| 🏀 Semifinal 2 — Sat. April 4 · 8:49 PM · TBS Michigan −1.5 O/U 157.5 | |||||||||
| #1 | (1) | Michigan | B10 | 35-3 | +39.02 | 128.2 | 89.2 | +180 | 17-19 |
| #2 | (1) | Arizona | B12 | 36-2 | +38.76 | 128.6 | 89.8 | +165 | 23-14-1 |
| Eliminated in Elite Eight | |||||||||
| #3 | (1) East | Duke — Sun. L | ACC | 35-3 | +37.29 | 128.0 | 90.7 | — | 21-17 |
| #8 | (2) West | Purdue — Sat. L | B10 | 30-9 | +31.14 | 131.6 | 100.5 | — | 17-22 |
| #11 | (6) Midwest | Tennessee — Sun. L | SEC | 25-11 | +27.86 | 121.9 | 94.0 | — | 17-19-1 |
| #22 | (9) South | Iowa — Sat. L | B10 | 24-13 | +23.85 | 123.8 | 100.0 | — | 21-16 |
| KenPom data through Sunday, March 29, 2026 · Spreads & championship odds via DraftKings/BetMGM as of Sunday evening · Sun. Elite Eight ATS: Michigan covered (−7.5, won 95–62 by 33) · UConn covered (+5.5, won 73–72 outright) · Non-covers: Tennessee (lost by 33 as +7.5 dog) · Duke (lost 73–72 as −5.5 fav) · Sat. Elite Eight ATS: Arizona covered (−6.5, won 79–64 by 15) · Illinois covered (−7.5, won 71–59 by 12) · Green = above .500 ATS · Red = below .500 ATS · Even = within 1 of .500 | |||||||||
Betting The Final Four: Using KenPom Metrics to Find Value
With the Final Four set to tip off at Lucas Oil Stadium, the statistical profiles of the remaining teams reveal a fascinating discrepancy between tournament seeding and true efficiency. For bettors looking to navigate the board in Indianapolis, the KenPom data suggests two very different approaches for the Saturday semifinals.
Semifinal 1: The Efficiency Mismatch
#3 Illinois (-1.5) vs. #2 UConn | O/U 139.5
On paper, UConn is the higher seed, but the advanced metrics tell a different story. Illinois enters as the #4 team in KenPom, five spots ahead of #9 UConn. The most glaring advantage for the Illini lies in their explosive offense:
- Elite Offense: Illinois boasts a massive 131.8 ORTG, nearly 10 points higher than UConn’s 122.8.
- Net Rating Advantage: Illinois holds a +5.3 edge in Net Rating (+34.41 vs. +29.11).
While UConn’s defense (93.7 DRTG) is statistically sturdier, the sheer volume of the Illinois attack makes the -1.5 spread look like a bargain. In a game where the efficiency margin favors the lower seed so heavily, the smart money is on the Fighting Illini to outpace the Huskies in a high-leverage environment.
Semifinal 2: The Battle of the Giants
#1 Michigan (-1.5) vs. #1 Arizona | O/U 157.5
This is the heavyweight bout the basketball world was hoping for. Michigan and Arizona are the two most complete teams in the country, separated by a razor-thin 0.26 margin in Net Rating.
- Statistical Mirror Images: Michigan (#1 KenPom) and Arizona (#2 KenPom) are virtually identical across the board. Michigan holds a slight edge in defensive efficiency (89.2), while Arizona counters with a marginally better offense (128.6).
- The Total: The O/U is set at a towering 157.5. While both teams play fast, Final Four games often experience a “shooting dip” due to the cavernous sightlines of a football stadium and heightened defensive intensity.
Betting Strategy: Because this game is a statistical toss-up, the value lies in the Championship Odds. Arizona is currently sitting at +165 to win it all, compared to Michigan’s +180. If you believe these teams are equals, taking the better payout on Arizona to cut down the nets is the mathematically sound play.
Cleatz Closing Lean
If you’re building a card for Saturday, Illinois -1.5 is the strongest play based on the efficiency gap. For the nightcap, keep an eye on the Under 157.5; historical Final Four trends often favor the defense when the total is pushed this high.
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