| PP | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Record | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade ⭐ Favorite | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Todd Pletcher | 5-2-2-1 | 4/1 |
| 2 | Albus | Manny Franco | Riley Mott | 4-2-0-1 | 30/1 |
| 3 | Intrepido | Hector Berrios | Jeff Mullins | 6-2-1-0 | 50/1 |
| 4 | Litmus Test | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 7-2-0-2 | 50/1 |
| 5 | Right to Party SCRATCHED | Christopher Elliott | Kenny McPeek | 4-1-1-2 | SCR |
| 6 | Commandment | Luis Saez | Brad Cox | 5-4-0-0 | 6/1 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | Atsuya Nishimura | Manabu Ikezoe | 3-3-0-0 | 20/1 |
| 8 | So Happy | Mike Smith | Mark Glatt | 4-3-0-1 | 15/1 |
| 9 | The Puma SCRATCHED | Javier Castellano | Gustavo Delgado | 4-1-2-1 | SCR |
| 10 | Wonder Dean (JPN) | Cristian Demuro | Daisuke Takayanagi | 6-2-2-0 | 30/1 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | Jaime Torres | Riley Mott | 5-3-0-0 | 20/1 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott | 3-1-1-1 | 8/1 |
| 13 | Silent Tactic SCRATCHED | Cristian Torres | Mark Casse | 6-2-4-0 | SCR |
| 14 | Potente | Juan Hernandez | Bob Baffert | 3-2-1-0 | 20/1 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | Flavien Prat | Chad Brown | 2-2-0-0 | 15/1 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | Edwin Maldonado | Doug O'Neill | 10-2-4-1 | 30/1 |
| 17 | Six Speed | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Bhupat Seemar | 5-3-1-1 | 50/1 |
| 18 | Further Ado | John Velazquez | Brad Cox | 6-3-1-1 | 6/1 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | Jose Ortiz | Cherie DeVaux | 4-2-0-2 | 30/1 |
| 20 | Fulleffort SCRATCHED | Tyler Gaffalione | Brad Cox | 7-3-2-1 | SCR |
| 21 | Great White | TBD | TBD | TBD | 50/1 |
| 22 | Ocelli | TBD | TBD | TBD | 50/1 |
| 23 | Robusta | TBD | TBD | TBD | 50/1 |
The 2026 Kentucky Derby (Derby 152) takes place Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs, with 20 horses entered and looking to run for glory. The odds table above reflects the "morning line" after the post-position draw.
START WINNING!
The 2026 Kentucky Derby At A Glance
- Race: Kentucky Derby 152
- Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026
- Track: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
- Distance: 1¼ miles (10 furlongs)
- Post time: 6:57 PM ET
- TV: NBC & Peacock
How To Read the Odds
If you only read one section on this page, make it this one.
Kentucky Derby odds are presented in fractional format, and while they look simple, most casual bettors don’t actually know what they mean in real dollars.
Fractional odds explained
- 9/2 → You win $9 for every $2 wagered
- 5/1 → You win $5 for every $1 wagered
- 50/1 → You win $50 for every $1 wagered
So:
- A $2 bet at 9/2 pays $11 total ($9 profit + $2 stake)
- A $2 bet at 5/1 pays $12 total
- A $2 bet at 50/1 pays $102 total
Why Derby odds constantly change
Unlike sportsbooks, the Kentucky Derby uses a pari-mutuel system:
- All bets go into a shared pool
- Odds fluctuate based on how money is distributed
- The track takes a cut, and payouts are determined after betting closes
👀 You’re betting against other bettors, not the house.
Morning line vs. live odds
- Morning line odds: Set before betting opens (baseline expectation)
- Fair odds: Analytical projections (like what you’re showing in your table)
- Live tote odds: Real-time odds based on betting volume
👀 Morning line ≠ what you’ll actually get on race day.
Where To Bet The 2026 Derby When Prediction Markets Sit It Out
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is the first major sporting event of the year, where the two biggest U.S. prediction markets effectively walked away.
Kalshi has never offered a Kentucky Derby contract, and 2026 is no exception. Despite the platform's aggressive expansion into single-game NBA and NHL markets this spring, the Derby continues to sit outside their book.
Polymarket opened a 2026 Derby market and then refunded every position, per reporting from Horse Racing Nation on April 27. The platform booked the Derby in 2024 and 2025; this year, traders who entered positions on Renegade, Commandment, or anyone else got their money back and no replacement market was offered.
For most retail bettors, that leaves three options:
- Pari-mutuel betting through TwinSpires, FanDuel Racing, TVG, or your state's licensed advance-deposit wagering platform, only available in roughly 30 states
- Vegas sportsbooks (Caesars, Westgate) and offshore books, fixed-odds futures, but limited to in-state bettors for legal U.S. options
- Onyx Odds — full 20-horse Derby board live as of Derby week, available in roughly 40 states under the sweepstakes model
The third option is the new wrinkle. Onyx Odds is one of the only sweepstakes-style platforms with a complete Derby market this year, including the outright winner and two race-specific props (Secretariat's 1:59.4 record, Triple Crown). For readers in Texas, California, Georgia, or any state without legal pari-mutuel ADW access, it's the cleanest route to a Derby ticket without driving to a track or a casino.
Onyx Odds Kentucky Derby 2026 current prices:
| Horse | Onyx Odds | Public Vegas Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Renegade | +400 | +400 (Caesars, Westgate) |
| Commandment | +600 | +500 (+600 Vegas) |
| Further Ado | +600 | +500–+600 |
| Chief Wallabee | +800 | +700–+800 |
| The Puma | +1000 | — |
| So Happy | +1500 | — |
| Emerging Market | +1500 | — |
| Prop | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Will Secretariat's record of 1:59.4 be broken? | +1000 | -3000 |
| Will there be a Triple Crown winner? | +500 | -1000 |
The Onyx pricing on the favorites is right in line with the Vegas consensus, no juice penalty for using the sweepstakes book. New users can claim a 100 Onyx Cash welcome match using code CLEATZ, enough to play the Derby without spending more than the $10 first-purchase minimum.
Worth flagging: Onyx Odds Derby markets are not a substitute for pari-mutuel pools. There's no exacta, trifecta, or superfecta in the sweepstakes format. If you want exotic bets, you still need an ADW account or a Vegas window. For straight win-pool action and Yes/No props, Onyx is filling the gap that the prediction markets left this year.
The 2026 Favorites and What Are These Odds?
This isn’t about picking winners — it’s about understanding how the market is pricing risk, upside, and uncertainty across the field.
Renegade (4/1)
Still your clear favorite, and now even shorter than previously listed. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Renegade’s profile screams reliability: consistent form (5-2-2-1), proven connections, and no real holes in the résumé. The market isn’t trying to get cute here; this is the “safe” top of the board.
Further Ado (6/1)
Drifting slightly from earlier expectations, but still firmly in the top tier. Brad Cox trains, and the horse brings a strong 6-3-1-1 record. The hesitation is likely distance and race shape, not ability. This is a classic “talent vs. trip” pricing scenario.
Commandment (6/1)
Now co-second choice with Further Ado. Commandment’s 5-4-0-0 record is arguably one of the strongest in the field from a win-rate standpoint. The market respects the consistency, but isn’t overcommitting, suggesting some skepticism about how that form translates here.
Chief Wallabee (8/1)
Shorter than expected and clearly respected. Bill Mott’s runner only has four starts (3-1-1-1), which introduces both upside and uncertainty. The market is pricing in potential improvement rather than proven dominance.
The Puma (10/1)
Holding steady in that second tier. With a 4-1-2-1 record, The Puma is the type of horse bettors circle when looking for value just outside the favorites. Not dominant, but consistently competitive, and that matters in this kind of field.
Longshots Worth Knowing
You don’t need to hit a 30/1 bomb, but understanding which longshots are live is where edges are found.
Fulleffort (20/1)
Still one of the more interesting mid-range prices. A 7-3-2-1 record shows consistency, and Brad Cox trains, which always attracts money. This isn’t a fluke longshot; it’s a horse the market isn’t fully buying, but isn’t dismissing either.
Wonder Dean (JPN) (30/1)
The wildcard factor remains. At 6-2-2-0, the form is solid, but international runners always come with uncertainty baked into the price. Japanese horses have been trending up globally, and the market is leaving just enough room for upside.
Potente (20/1)
Now clearly priced as a mid-tier longshot, not a fringe bomb. The Bob Baffert factor (even indirectly through association) always pulls attention, but the 3-2-1-0 record suggests this is more about potential than proven ability.
Pavlovian (30/1)
One of the more experienced horses in the field (10-2-4-1), which is rare at this price. The market isn’t impressed by the win rate, but there’s underlying consistency that could make this one sneak into exotics.
Intrepido / Six Speed (50/1)
True longshots, but worth noting. Intrepido (6-2-1-0) and Six Speed (5-3-1-1) both have flashes of form; the issue is class ceiling. These are the types that need chaos to matter.
Types of Kentucky Derby Bets Explained
As Derby Day approaches, this is where search volume explodes and where casual bettors make mistakes.
Win / Place / Show
- Win: Horse must finish 1st
- Place: Top 2 finish
- Show: Top 3 finish
Lower risk = lower payout.
Exacta
Pick the top 2 finishers in order.
Exacta box: Covers both combinations (higher cost, more coverage)
Trifecta
Pick the top 3 finishers in order.
With a 20-horse field, this gets difficult — and that’s exactly why payouts can get massive.
Superfecta
Pick the top 4 finishers.
This is lottery territory. High risk, huge upside.
Prediction Markets Are Quietly Trading the Kentucky Derby
There’s a new layer of betting interest emerging, and it’s not coming from sportsbooks.
Platforms like Polymarket have offered Kentucky Derby markets in recent years, allowing users to trade on outcomes like “Which horse will win?” in a market-driven format.
Instead of odds, you get prices:
- $0.25 = 25% implied probability
- $0.60 = 60% implied probability
Why this matters
Prediction markets:
- React faster to new information
- Attract sharper, data-driven participants
- Sometimes price horses differently than pari-mutuel pools
That creates opportunity.
If a horse is:
- 10/1 (~9% implied) in Derby betting
- But trading at 15–20% on a prediction market
👉 That’s a signal worth paying attention to.
What about Kalshi?
Kalshi is the only federally regulated U.S. prediction exchange, but it has not consistently offered direct Kentucky Derby winner markets.
That could change. As Kalshi expands into event-based contracts, major sporting outcomes like the Derby feel like a natural next step, especially as the line between sports betting and prediction markets continues to blur.
Bottom line
The Derby is still dominated by pari-mutuel betting.
But prediction markets are coming, and when they fully arrive, they’ll give bettors a second odds board to compare against.
What happens at the post-position draw?
The post-position draw is one of the most important pre-race moments and one of the most overlooked by casual bettors.
Held on April 25, below are the pos position draw results:
Churchill Downs odds maker Mike Battaglia sets those initial lines immediately after positions are assigned.
Why it matters:
- Inside vs. outside posts can impact trip dynamics
- Certain running styles benefit from specific positions
- Odds often shift immediately after the draw
2026 Kentucky Derby FAQ
Up to 20 horses start in the gate. While 23 are currently entered, a few will be excluded based on qualifying points.
Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 6:57 PM ET.
Renegade currently sits as the favorite at 9/2.
Through a pari-mutuel system — odds are based on the betting pool, not set by sportsbooks.
A projection of each horse’s true win probability before betting begins.
Platforms like TwinSpires offer national access, alongside state-legal sportsbooks where applicable.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
