Kalshi Traders Are Pricing the Bingo Card
If you’re trading the Kalshi “What will Trump say?” market, congratulations, you’ve found the only place in America where “Discombobulator” has an implied probability.
Let’s break this down like we would an alt-line prop board.
The Heavy Favorites on Kalshi
These are the “Mahomes to throw a pass” equivalents.
| Phrase | Yes Price | Implied % | Take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | 94¢ | 94% | He’s saying it. Multiple times. Possibly about deficits. Possibly about greatness. Possibly both. |
| 250 | 94¢ | 93% | Likely tariff or percentage reference. Market is convinced. |
| Hockey | 90¢ | 88% | Olympic tie-in or Team USA reference. Don’t overthink it. |
| ICE / National Guard | 88¢ | 88% | Border theme confirmed. |
| Fraud | 88¢ | 87% | A staple. Auto-play. |
| Alien | 86¢ | 86% | Immigration reference, not UFO disclosure (probably). |
👉 These are not “if.” These are “how many times.”
Unless you’re fading chaos for fun, these aren’t where edge lives.
The Political Core Script Tier (75–85%)
This is the meat of the speech.
| Phrase | Yes Price |
|---|---|
| Cartel | 85¢ |
| Fentanyl / Cocaine | 85¢ |
| Supreme Court | 83¢ |
| Nuclear | 80¢ |
| Radical Left | 76¢ |
| “The State of our Union is Strong” | 76¢ |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | 75¢ |
| DEI / Woke | 74¢ |
If you’ve watched even one rally in the last 12 months… this is basically the playlist.
Interesting note:
DEI/Woke dipped slightly (-2). Market fatigue? Or are traders anticipating a more “statesman” tone?
The Coin-Flip Zone (45–60%)
Now we’re talking tradeable volatility.
| Phrase | Yes Price |
|---|---|
| Ballroom | 53¢ |
| Fake News | 54¢ |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | 51¢ |
| Drill Baby Drill | 50¢ |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | 47¢ |
| Highest Inflation | 44¢ |
🔥 Drill Baby Drill at 50¢
This one is fascinating. It was trading much higher on Kalshi earlier this month. Now it’s basically a coin flip.
Ask yourself:
- Is this a rally slogan or State of the Union slogan?
- Does he pivot toward global energy dominance language instead?
This feels like one of the cleaner swing trades on the board.
The Longshots (Under 35%)
| Phrase | Yes Price |
|---|---|
| Vaccine / Autism | 36¢ |
| Windmill | 33¢ |
| Auto Pen | 32¢ |
| UFC | 31¢ |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 24¢ |
| DOGE | 21¢ |
| Genius Act | 21¢ |
| Discombobulator | 8¢ |
| Ethereum | 3¢ |
💰 Crypto at 23–24¢
For someone who has embraced the space more than in 2020, this feels lower than you’d expect.
BUT:
State of the Union ≠ rally.
This isn’t a Truth Social thread.
Crypto mention likely depends on:
- Regulatory positioning
- Dollar / CBDC framing
- Attacks on “financial elites”
Edge might exist here if you think economic messaging leans innovation-heavy.
Market Volume Context
Total volume: $4.79M as of Feb. 23
That’s not meme money. That’s meaningful liquidity.
Sharp money has likely shaped these prices already.
But speech markets are fragile:
- One leaked draft line
- One pre-speech tease
- One Fox News segment
And this board moves 5–10¢ instantly.
Strategic Angles for Traders
1️⃣ Script vs Rally
State of the Union speeches are traditionally:
- Slightly toned down
- Broader appeal
- Structured
Markets may be overpricing rally-style phrases.
2️⃣ High-Confidence Parlays (Low ROI, Low Stress)
Stacking:
- Fraud
- ICE
- Cartel
- Trillion
- Alien
Is like betting a -600 ML parlay. Not sexy. Probably cashes.
3️⃣ The Volatility Play
If you want upside:
- Drill Baby Drill (50¢)
- Somali (51¢)
- Fake News (54¢)
These can swing hard if tone changes.
4️⃣ The Sneaky Edge
Watch the “Radical Left” / “Woke” correlation.
If speech writers lean economic-nationalist over culture-war, one of those could miss despite pricing in mid-70s.
Our CLEATZ Lean Board
✔️ TOP PICKS:
Fraud / ICE / Cartel / Trillion
✔️ VALUE:
Drill Baby Drill
Somali
Fake News
✔️ UNDERPRICED - NEED TO WATCH:
Crypto / Bitcoin (if innovation pivot shows up)
🚫 Don’t Get Cute:
Discombobulator. Just… no.
(Not financial advice. Just pattern recognition.)
This isn’t about politics.
It’s about:
- Language frequency
- Historical cadence
- Script probability
- Market inefficiency
And yes… about whether “Ballroom” is going to randomly print at 53¢.
Welcome to speech season.
Let’s trade it before all we hear about is the 2028 election.
