The Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium for a divisional AFC West matchup. This page compares live sportsbook odds against prices from prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and no-vig exchanges to identify potential edges.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds Today
- Spread
- Chiefs -2.5 9 of 14 books
- Total
- 43.5 6 of 14 books
- Moneyline
- Broncos +129 / Chiefs -130 best available
- Win probability
- Broncos 43% / Chiefs 57% median of 14 books, no vig
- Kalshi
- Broncos 44% / Chiefs 56%
- Polymarket
- Broncos 44% / Chiefs 56%
All figures read from one snapshot at page load, so they match the tables below.
Books and prediction markets agree here, inside 0.8 of a point once the vig is removed. The best bid and ask are 1¢ apart, a tight market at the displayed price.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds Comparison
10 of 15 books have Broncos at +2.5. The total is not settled — it ranges from 42.5 to 43.5, with 43.5 the consensus. Best Broncos moneyline: Pinnacle at +129.
Spread
| Book | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3 -120 | -3 +100 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | -2.5 -118 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -103 | -2.5 -118 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -103 | -2.5 -118 |
| Bet365 | +2.5 +100 | -2.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | -3 -105 |
| Novig No Vig | +2.5 -106 | -2.5 -108 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 |
| Bally Bet | +3 -117 | -3 -105 |
| betPARX | +3 -117 | -3 -105 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -120 | -3 +107 |
| ProphetX No Vig | +2.5 -101 | -2.5 -110 |
Total
| Book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 42.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 43.5 -104 | 43.5 -118 |
| BetMGM | 43.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 43 -112 | 43 -108 |
| Caesars | 43 -112 | 43 -108 |
| Bet365 | 43.5 -111 | 43.5 -111 |
| BetRivers | 42.5 -114 | 42.5 -107 |
| Novig No Vig | 43.5 -104 | 43.5 -117 |
| Fanatics | 43 -110 | 43 -110 |
| Bally Bet | 42.5 -114 | 42.5 -107 |
| betPARX | 42.5 -114 | 42.5 -107 |
| Fliff | 43.5 -105 | 43.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 43 -115 | 43 -105 |
| Pinnacle | 43 -114 | 43 -102 |
| ProphetX No Vig | 43.5 -101 | 43.5 -113 |
Moneyline
| Book | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +124 | -148 |
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| Caesars | +122 | -143 |
| Caesars | +122 | -143 |
| Bet365 | +125 | -152 |
| BetRivers | +120 | -148 |
| Novig No Vig | +122 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| Bally Bet | +120 | -148 |
| betPARX | +120 | -148 |
| Fliff | +120 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -145 |
| Pinnacle | +129 | -146 |
| ProphetX No Vig | +126 | -137 |
Best available price on each side is highlighted.
| Bo Nix | DK 225.5PP 227.5UD 227.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | DK 227.5PP 227.5UD 229.5 |
| Bo Nix | DK 1.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | DK 1.5 |
| Bo Nix | DK 17.5PP 15.5UD 15.5 |
| Brashard Smith | PP 3.5 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DK 50.5PP 50.5UD 50.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | DK 63.5PP 61.5UD 59.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | DK 14.5PP 15.5UD 15.5 |
| Brashard Smith | PP 6.5UD 6.5 |
| Courtland Sutton | DK 43.5PP 42.5UD 42.5 |
| J.K. Dobbins | PP 4.5UD 4.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DK 56.5PP 54.5UD 56.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | DK 15.5PP 15.5UD 15.5 |
| Noah Gray | PP 7.5UD 7.5 |
| Rashee Rice | DK 62.5PP 60.5UD 61.5 |
| Travis Kelce | DK 41.5PP 41.5UD 41.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | PP 20.5UD 20.5 |
| Xavier Worthy | DK 33.5PP 36.5UD 34.5 |
| Courtland Sutton | DK 3.5PP 4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DK 4.5PP 4.5UD 4.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | DK 2.5 |
| Rashee Rice | DK 5.5PP 5.5 |
| Travis Kelce | DK 3.5PP 4 |
| Tyquan Thornton | PP 1.5UD 1.5 |
| Xavier Worthy | DK 3.5 |
| Adam Trautman | DK +750CZR +800 |
| Bo Nix | DK +475CZR +450 |
| Brashard Smith | DK +850CZR +700 |
| Courtland Sutton | DK +250CZR +235 |
| Cyrus Allen | DK +900CZR +800 |
| Dallen Bentley | DK +3000CZR +2600 |
| Emmett Johnson | DK +550CZR +500 |
| Evan Engram | DK +500CZR +500 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DK +155CZR +149 |
| Jake Briningstool | DK +1600CZR +1600 |
| Jared Wiley | DK +1500CZR +1400 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DK +230CZR +230 |
Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig & ProphetX Odds: Broncos vs. Chiefs
Contract prices are live probabilities with no vig, so they compare directly to a devigged book line. Where the two differ, the gap shows where the markets disagree on this game's win probability.
| Market | DEN | KC | Spread | Traded | Open Int. | 24hChiefs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Up to $500 bonus → | 44% | 56% | 1¢ | 177k | 149.6k | — |
| Polymarket $20 free trade → | 44% | 56% | 1¢ | $5.7k | — | — |
| Novig Play $10, get $25 free → | 44% | 56% | — | — | — | — |
| ProphetX $20 free trade → | 43% | 57% | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi trades in contracts; Polymarket reports in dollars. Novig is an exchange priced from its moneyline — the odds feed carries no order-book depth for it.
Where the price has moved
Every line is the implied probability of Chiefs winning, so up means the market likes Chiefs more. Since each contract opened, Kalshi has moved away from Chiefs 1 point, 57% to 56%; Polymarket has moved away from Chiefs 2 points, 58% to 56%. The dashed line is the sportsbook consensus with the vig removed.
Kalshi Polymarket Sportsbooks, no vig
Broncos and Chiefs Season Win Totals
Kalshi's over/under on each club's regular-season wins. It is the quickest read on how far apart these two teams are expected to finish.
| Team | O/U Wins | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DENBroncos | 10.5 | 44% | 56% |
| KCChiefs | 10.5 | 45% | 55% |
Win totals for all 32 NFL teams
Broncos and Chiefs Super Bowl Futures
Best available price across the licensed books, with 30-day movement and what the prediction markets make of it.
| Team | To WinBest Price | 30d | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENBroncos | +2000 BetRivers | — | 6% | 5% |
| KCChiefs | +1700 FanDuel | — | 6% | 6% |
| Market | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 56% |
| Polymarket | 44% | 56% |
| Book | 43% | 57% |
| Novig | 44% | 56% |
| ProphetX | 43% | 57% |
| Total points | Kalshi | 43.07 |
|---|---|---|
| Spread Kansas City | Kalshi | −2.6 |