The Buffalo Bills travel to NRG Stadium in Houston to face the Texas Texans on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. This page tracks live sportsbook odds against prices from prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and no-vig exchanges to identify gaps in how different markets value the matchup.
Bills vs. Texans Odds Today
- Spread
- Bills -1.5 7 of 14 books
- Total
- 44.5 13 of 14 books
- Moneyline
- Bills -105 / Texans -102 best available
- Win probability
- Bills 51% / Texans 49% median of 14 books, no vig
- Kalshi
- Bills 50% / Texans 50%
- Polymarket
- Bills 50% / Texans 50%
All figures read from one snapshot at page load, so they match the tables below.
Books and prediction markets agree here, inside 0.9 of a point once the vig is removed. The best bid and ask are 1¢ apart, a tight market at the displayed price.
Bills vs. Texans Odds Comparison
8 of 15 books have Bills at -1.5. The total is not settled — it ranges from 44 to 44.5, with 44.5 the consensus. Best Bills moneyline: Pinnacle at -105.
Spread
| Book | BUF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 +100 | +1.5 -122 |
| BetMGM | -1 -105 | +1 -115 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -102 | +1.5 -120 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -102 | +1.5 -120 |
| Bet365 | -1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | -1 -108 | +1 -113 |
| Novig No Vig | -1.5 +111 | +1.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | -1 -105 | +1 -115 |
| Bally Bet | -1 -108 | +1 -113 |
| betPARX | -1 -108 | +1 -113 |
| Fliff | -1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1 -120 | -1 +100 |
| Pinnacle | -1 +102 | +1 -114 |
| ProphetX No Vig | -1.5 +107 | +1.5 -118 |
Total
| Book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| BetMGM | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 |
| Caesars | 44.5 -109 | 44.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 44.5 -109 | 44.5 -110 |
| Bet365 | 44.5 -111 | 44.5 -111 |
| BetRivers | 44.5 -109 | 44.5 -112 |
| Novig No Vig | 44.5 -108 | 44.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| Bally Bet | 44.5 -109 | 44.5 -112 |
| betPARX | 44.5 -109 | 44.5 -112 |
| Fliff | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| Pinnacle | 44 -119 | 44 +102 |
| ProphetX No Vig | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 |
Moneyline
| Book | BUF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 |
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -108 |
| Caesars | -110 | -107 |
| Caesars | -110 | -107 |
| Bet365 | -116 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -117 | -107 |
| Novig No Vig | -106 | -102 |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 |
| Bally Bet | -115 | -106 |
| betPARX | -115 | -106 |
| Fliff | -115 | -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -105 |
| Pinnacle | -105 | -107 |
| ProphetX No Vig | -105 | -104 |
Best available price on each side is highlighted.
| C.J. Stroud | DK 218.5PP 219.5UD 222.5 |
| Josh Allen | DK 223.5PP 220.5UD 223.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | DK 1.5 |
| Josh Allen | DK 1.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | DK 9.5PP 9.5UD 10.5 |
| David Montgomery | DK 55.5PP 55.5UD 56.5 |
| James Cook | DK 74.5PP 74.5UD 74.5 |
| Josh Allen | DK 33.5PP 30.5UD 33.5 |
| Woody Marks | DK 30.5PP 30.5UD 31.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | DK 37.5PP 38.5UD 38.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | DK 33.5PP 32.5UD 32.5 |
| David Montgomery | DK 8.5PP 7.5UD 8.5 |
| Dawson Knox | PP 14.5UD 14.5 |
| DJ Moore | DK 46.5PP 46.5UD 46.5 |
| James Cook | PP 14.5UD 15.5 |
| Kayshon Boutte | DK 22.5PP 22.5UD 20.5 |
| Khalil Shakir | DK 36.5PP 36.5UD 38.5 |
| Nico Collins | DK 69.5PP 67.5UD 68.5 |
| Woody Marks | DK 9.5PP 9.5UD 8.5 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | PP 20.5UD 21.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | DK 3.5PP 3.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | DK 3.5 |
| David Montgomery | DK 1.5PP 1.5UD 1.5 |
| Dawson Knox | PP 1.5 |
| DJ Moore | DK 3.5PP 3.5UD 3.5 |
| Kayshon Boutte | DK 1.5 |
| Khalil Shakir | DK 3.5PP 3.5 |
| Nico Collins | DK 5.5 |
| Woody Marks | PP 1.5UD 1.5 |
| British Brooks | DK +3500CZR +2900 |
| C.J. Stroud | DK +850CZR +800 |
| Cade Stover | DK +1900CZR +1800 |
| Dalton Kincaid | DK +300CZR +290 |
| Dalton Schultz | DK +310CZR +300 |
| David Montgomery | DK -120CZR -117 |
| Dawson Knox | DK +600CZR +575 |
| DJ Moore | DK +275CZR +240 |
| Foster Moreau | DK +1100CZR +1000 |
| Jackson Hawes | DK +1300CZR +1000 |
| James Cook | DK -110CZR -106 |
| Jaylin Noel | DK +550CZR +550 |
Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig & ProphetX Odds: Bills vs. Texans
Contract prices are live probabilities with no vig, so they compare directly to a devigged book line. Where the two differ, the gap shows where the markets disagree on this game's win probability.
| Market | BUF | HOU | Spread | Traded | Open Int. | 24hTexans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Up to $500 bonus → | 50% | 50% | 1¢ | 163.7k | 117.7k | — |
| Polymarket $20 free trade → | 50% | 50% | 1¢ | $3k | — | — |
| Novig Play $10, get $25 free → | 50% | 50% | — | — | — | — |
| ProphetX $20 free trade → | 50% | 50% | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi trades in contracts; Polymarket reports in dollars. Novig is an exchange priced from its moneyline — the odds feed carries no order-book depth for it.
Where the price has moved
Every line is the implied probability of Texans winning, so up means the market likes Texans more. Since each contract opened, Kalshi has moved toward Texans 1 point, 49% to 50%; Polymarket has not moved (50%). The dashed line is the sportsbook consensus with the vig removed.
Kalshi Polymarket Sportsbooks, no vig
Bills and Texans Season Win Totals
Kalshi's over/under on each club's regular-season wins. It is the quickest read on how far apart these two teams are expected to finish.
| Team | O/U Wins | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUFBills | 10.5 | 57% | 43% |
| HOUTexans | 10.5 | 47% | 53% |
Win totals for all 32 NFL teams
Bills and Texans Super Bowl Futures
Best available price across the licensed books, with 30-day movement and what the prediction markets make of it.
| Team | To WinBest Price | 30d | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFBills | +1000 FanDuel | — | 8% | 9% |
| HOUTexans | +2000 BetMGM | — | 5% | 4% |
| Market | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% | 50% |
| Polymarket | 50% | 50% |
| Book | 52% | 48% |
| Novig | 50% | 50% |
| ProphetX | 50% | 50% |
| Total points | Kalshi | 44.23 |
|---|
| Passing yards Kalshi | Market | Book | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 222.7 | 220.5 | +2.2 |
| Passing TDs Kalshi | Market | Book | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 1.1 | 1.5 | −0.4 |