The Buffalo Bills travel to NRG Stadium in Houston to face the Texas Texans on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. This page tracks live sportsbook odds against prices from prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and no-vig exchanges to identify gaps in how different markets value the matchup.
Bills vs. Texans Odds Today
- Spread
- Bills -1.5 9 of 13 books
- Total
- 44.5 11 of 13 books
- Moneyline
- Bills -102 / Texans +100 best available
- Win probability
- Bills 51% / Texans 49% median of 13 books, no vig
- Kalshi
- Bills 49% / Texans 51%
- Polymarket
- Bills 49% / Texans 51%
All figures read from one snapshot at page load, so they match the tables below.
Books and prediction markets agree here, inside 2.1 of a point once the vig is removed. The best bid and ask are 1¢ apart, a tight market at the displayed price.
Bills vs. Texans Odds Comparison
9 of 14 books have Bills at -1.5. The total is not settled — it ranges from 44 to 44.5, with 44.5 the consensus. Best Bills moneyline: Novig at -102.
Spread
| Book | BUF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -104 | +1.5 -118 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Caesars | — | — |
| Caesars | 0 -105 | 0 -115 |
| Bet365 | -1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -109 | +1.5 -112 |
| Novig No Vig | -1.5 -102 | +1.5 -147 |
| Fanatics | -1 -105 | — |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -109 | +1.5 -112 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -109 | +1.5 -112 |
| Fliff | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Pinnacle | -1 +102 | +1 -115 |
Total
| Book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 44.5 -112 | 44.5 -108 |
| BetMGM | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 44.5 -109 | 44.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 44.5 -109 | 44.5 -110 |
| Bet365 | 44.5 -111 | 44.5 -111 |
| BetRivers | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| Novig No Vig | 44.5 -113 | 44.5 -113 |
| Fanatics | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| Bally Bet | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| betPARX | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| Fliff | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| Pinnacle | 44 -115 | 44 -101 |
Moneyline
| Book | BUF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 |
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |
| Bet365 | -116 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -122 | +100 |
| Novig No Vig | -102 | -108 |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 |
| Bally Bet | -122 | +100 |
| betPARX | -122 | +100 |
| Fliff | -115 | -175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -105 |
| Pinnacle | -105 | -107 |
Best available price on each side is highlighted.
| C.J. Stroud | PP 229.5UD 228.5 |
| Josh Allen | PP 218.5UD 217.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | PP 7.5UD 7.5 |
| David Montgomery | PP 54.5UD 54.5 |
| James Cook | PP 75.5UD 76.5 |
| Josh Allen | PP 31.5UD 32.5 |
| DJ Moore | PP 53.5UD 52.5 |
| James Cook | PP 14.5UD 15.5 |
| Nico Collins | PP 70.5UD 70.5 |
| Nico Collins | PP 4.5 |
| Buffalo Bills D/ST | DK +500 |
| C.J. Stroud | DK +750 |
| Dalton Kincaid | DK +280 |
| Dalton Schultz | DK +340 |
| David Montgomery | DK +120 |
| Dawson Knox | DK +550 |
| DJ Moore | DK +255 |
| Houston Texans D/ST | DK +500 |
| James Cook | DK +110 |
| Jaylin Noel | DK +600 |
| Josh Allen | DK +110 |
| Joshua Palmer | DK +650 |
Kalshi, Polymarket & Novig Odds: Bills vs. Texans
Contract prices are live probabilities with no vig, so they compare directly to a devigged book line. Where the two differ, the gap shows where the markets disagree on this game's win probability.
| Market | BUF | HOU | Spread | Traded | Open Int. | 24hTexans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Up to $500 bonus → | 49% | 51% | 1¢ | 54.9k | 36.7k | — |
| Polymarket $20 free trade → | 49% | 51% | 2¢ | $214 | — | — |
| Novig Play $10, get $25 free → | 49% | 51% | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi trades in contracts; Polymarket reports in dollars. Novig is an exchange priced from its moneyline — the odds feed carries no order-book depth for it.
Where the price has moved
Every line is the implied probability of Texans winning, so up means the market likes Texans more. Since each contract opened, Kalshi has moved toward Texans 2 points, 49% to 51%; Polymarket has moved toward Texans 1 point, 50% to 51%. The dashed line is the sportsbook consensus with the vig removed.
Kalshi Polymarket Sportsbooks, no vig
Bills and Texans Season Win Totals
Kalshi's over/under on each club's regular-season wins. It is the quickest read on how far apart these two teams are expected to finish.
| Team | O/U Wins | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUFBills | 10.5 | 54% | 46% |
| HOUTexans | 10.5 | 48% | 52% |
Win totals for all 32 NFL teams
Bills and Texans Super Bowl Futures
Best available price across the licensed books, with 30-day movement and what the prediction markets make of it.
| Team | To WinBest Price | 30d | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFBills | +1100 FanDuel | ▼ +1000 | 8% | 9% |
| HOUTexans | +2000 BetMGM | — | 5% | 5% |
| Market | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 49% | 51% |
| Polymarket | 49% | 51% |
| Book | 52% | 48% |
| Novig | 49% | 51% |