The Lions visit the Bills on Thursday night at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park for an early-season divisional matchup. This page compares live sportsbook odds across major books against real-money prediction market prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and no-vig exchanges to surface potential value discrepancies.
Lions vs. Bills Odds Today
- Spread
- Bills -3 9 of 10 books
- Total
- 52.5 9 of 10 books
- Moneyline
- Lions +146 / Bills -159 best available
- Win probability
- Lions 41% / Bills 59% median of 10 books, no vig
- Kalshi
- Lions 40% / Bills 60%
- Polymarket
- Lions 41% / Bills 59%
All figures read from one snapshot at page load, so they match the tables below.
Books and prediction markets agree here, inside 0.6 of a point once the vig is removed. The best bid and ask are 2¢ apart, a tight market at the displayed price.
Lions vs. Bills Odds Comparison
10 of 11 books have Lions at +3. The total sits at 52.5 everywhere. Best Lions moneyline: FanDuel at +146.
Spread
| Book | DET | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | -3 -110 |
| FanDuel | +3 -110 | -3 -110 |
| BetMGM | +3 -115 | -3 -105 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | -3 -114 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | -3 -114 |
| Bet365 | +3 -110 | -3 -110 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | -3 -105 |
| Novig No Vig | — | -3.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | -3 -110 |
| Bally Bet | +3 -117 | -3 -105 |
| betPARX | +3 -117 | -3 -105 |
Total
| Book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 52.5 -120 | 52.5 -102 |
| BetMGM | 52.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 52.5 -108 | 52.5 -113 |
| Caesars | 52.5 -108 | 52.5 -113 |
| Bet365 | 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| Novig No Vig | — | — |
| Fanatics | 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| Bally Bet | 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| betPARX | 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
Moneyline
| Book | DET | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +136 | -162 |
| FanDuel | +146 | -174 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +135 | -159 |
| Caesars | +135 | -159 |
| Bet365 | +140 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +133 | -165 |
| Novig No Vig | +141 | -163 |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 |
| Bally Bet | +135 | -165 |
| betPARX | +135 | -165 |
Best available price on each side is highlighted.
Kalshi, Polymarket & Novig Odds: Lions vs. Bills
Contract prices are live probabilities with no vig, so they compare directly to a devigged book line. Where the two differ, the gap shows where the markets disagree on this game's win probability.
| Market | DET | BUF | Spread | Traded | Open Int. | 24hBills |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Up to $500 bonus → | 40% | 60% | 2¢ | 5.4k | 5.4k | +1 |
| Polymarket $20 free trade → | 41% | 59% | 12¢ | — | — | -2 |
| Novig Play $10, get $25 free → | 40% | 60% | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi trades in contracts; Polymarket reports in dollars. Novig is an exchange priced from its moneyline — the odds feed carries no order-book depth for it.
Where the price has moved
Every line is the implied probability of Bills winning, so up means the market likes Bills more. Since each contract opened, Kalshi has moved toward Bills 1 point, 59% to 60%; Polymarket has moved away from Bills 1 point, 60% to 59%. The dashed line is the sportsbook consensus with the vig removed.
Kalshi Polymarket Sportsbooks, no vig
Lions and Bills Season Win Totals
Kalshi's over/under on each club's regular-season wins. It is the quickest read on how far apart these two teams are expected to finish.
| Team | O/U Wins | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETLions | 10.5 | 55% | 45% |
| BUFBills | 10.5 | 54% | 46% |
Win totals for all 32 NFL teams
Lions and Bills Super Bowl Futures
Best available price across the licensed books, with 30-day movement and what the prediction markets make of it.
| Team | To WinBest Price | 30d | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DETLions | +1900 DraftKings | — | 4% | 4% |
| BUFBills | +1100 FanDuel | ▼ +1000 | 8% | 9% |
| Market | Lions | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 40% | 60% |
| Polymarket | 41% | 59% |
| Book | 41% | 59% |
| Novig | 40% | 60% |