NFL Passing Props Week 5: QB Yards, TDs & Best Odds

Compare NFL passing props by quarterback, matchup, line and sportsbook price. Start with passing yards, then switch tabs for passing touchdowns, completions, attempts or interceptions. Longest completion has its own board. Open a player row for available game logs and book comparisons.

CLEATZNFL QB Passing PropsYards · TDs · Comp · Att · INT · lines Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET

Player stats: 2026 season · L5/L10: rolling regular-season games, including prior season when needed · Odds snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET

NFL Passing Yards Props

Passing Yards research leans

Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.

Week 5 · Upcoming · MIN @ NO

Tyler Shough

Passing YardsOver lean

Over 235.5 at -110

fanaticsL5 5/5 · L10 9/10 · L10 supports L5

Previous five: 33.2 → latest five: 43 pass attempts/game. Change: +29.5%.

See reasoning

Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 235.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

9/10 over 235.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 235.5–241.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 33.2 → latest five: 43 pass attempts/game. Change: +29.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · SF @ SEA

Sam Darnold

Passing YardsUnder lean

Under 234.5 at -113

draftkingsL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 30.4 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -19.7%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 234.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 under 234.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 228.5–234.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 30.4 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -19.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · LV @ NE

Drake Maye

Passing YardsUnder lean

Under 229.5 at -115

betmgmL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 30.8 → latest five: 27 pass attempts/game. Change: -12.3%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 229.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 under 229.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 225.5–229.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 30.8 → latest five: 27 pass attempts/game. Change: -12.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

How leans are selected

Standard passing, rushing and receiving L5/L10 use the latest qualifying regular-season games across the selected and previous seasons, newest first. Prior-team games count. Longest-play markets retain the qualifying-game policy shown on their board. Passing history excludes appearances without a pass attempt. Five games and at least 4 of the latest 5 results beating the exact selected threshold qualify a historical Over or Under lean. Pushes are not hits. L10, line comparison and workload are additional context, not requirements or exclusions. L10 fewer than 5/10 is flagged as conflicting, 5–7/10 as mixed, and 8–10/10 as supporting. Samples of 6–9 games show the actual denominator; missing games are never filled. Within each upcoming week, ranking uses L5 hits with additional credit for a better line than the median of at least three quoted books (0.5 for counts; 2.5 for yards), or a 10% workload change in the same direction. Workload compares the latest five qualifying games with the preceding five across seasons and teams. All ten games need numeric workload values; missing values are never filled or skipped to create a different sample. Season and team changes are disclosed as context. With five to nine games, the latest-five average is shown when complete; no change is calculated. A zero preceding-five average has no percentage change. Unavailable or opposing workload does not block a historical lean. Both sides qualifying at different lines produces no directional lean. Feed must be refreshed within 20 minutes; quotes known to be older than two hours are excluded. Historical leans are not projected win probabilities or calculated betting edges. Passing TD totals use this same historical Over/Under screen. Anytime TD and First TD scorer markets are separate and receive no automatic directional lean. Unsupported markets receive no automatic directional lean.

Quarterback	Market	Best over	Best under	L5 · medianRolling	CLEATZ Lean
Week 5 · Upcoming
Jared GoffDET @ ARI · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	280.5	-110Circa	+100Novig	3-2Median: 327	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 280.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 280.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.6 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Matthew StaffordLA vs BUF · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	278.5	-111DraftKings	-113Novig	3-2Median: 317	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 275.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 283.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +9.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jacoby BrissettARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	266.5	-110Circa	-110Circa	2-3Median: 243	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 265.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 267.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 38.4 → latest five: 36.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -4.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Joe BurrowCIN @ MIA · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	252.5	-112DraftKings	-108Caesars	3-2Median: 254	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 242.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 256.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 39.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +6.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Josh AllenBUF @ LA · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	244.5	-113Novig	-110Pinnacle	4-1Median: 253	Over lean244.5 (-113) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 244.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 over 244.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 244.5–244.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 26.4 → latest five: 30.8 pass attempts/game. Change: +16.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
C.J. StroudHOU @ TEN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	239.5	-102Novig	-111DraftKings	3-2Median: 274	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 237.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 240.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 34.8 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler ShoughNO vs MIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	237.5	-110Circa	-102Novig	5-0Median: 259	Over lean235.5 (-110) · fanaticsL5 trend + workload supportL5 5/5 · L10 9/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 over 235.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 9/10 over 235.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 235.5–241.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 33.2 → latest five: 43 pass attempts/game. Change: +29.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kirk CousinsLV @ NE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	234.5	+108Novig	-110Circa	3-2Median: 248	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 228.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 234.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 35.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +8.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for LV and ATL; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	233.5	-108Novig	+100Novig	2-3Median: 197	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 233.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 241.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 28 → latest five: 33.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +19.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Sam DarnoldSEA vs SF · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	231.5	-112Pinnacle	-106Novig	1-4Median: 168	Under lean234.5 (-113) · draftkingsL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 234.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 234.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 228.5–234.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 30.4 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -19.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Brock PurdySF @ SEA · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	228.5	-112Pinnacle	-112Pinnacle	2-3Median: 218	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 225.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 228.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28 pass attempts/game. Change: -11.4%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Drake MayeNE vs LV · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	227.5	-110Circa	-110Circa	1-4Median: 199	Under lean229.5 (-115) · betmgmL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 229.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 229.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 225.5–229.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 30.8 → latest five: 27 pass attempts/game. Change: -12.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	225.5	-108Novig	-108Novig	3-2Median: 227	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 225.5 3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 225.5 2/5 recent hits; 2/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 26.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Aaron RodgersPIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	225.5	-110Fanatics	-112DraftKings	3-2Median: 292	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 223.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 228.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 40 pass attempts/game. Change: +23.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bo NixDEN @ LAC · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	223.5	+106Novig	-110Circa	1-4Median: 186	Under lean223.5 (-110) · circaL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 223.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 under 223.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 220.5–223.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 40.4 → latest five: 31.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -21.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	219.5	-113Novig	-113Novig	3-2Median: 221	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 215.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 221.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 30.6 → latest five: 25.2 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyson BagentCHI @ GB · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	216.5	-108Novig	-106Novig	1-3Median: 40.5	Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 4 qualifying results; five are required. Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Daniel JonesIND @ PIT · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	213.5	-104Pinnacle	-113FanDuel	1-4Median: 166	Under lean213.5 (-113) · fanduelL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 213.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 under 213.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 207.5–213.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 27.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -14.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kyler MurrayMIN @ NO · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	212.5	-113FanDuel	+106Novig	2-3Median: 200	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 208.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/8 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 213.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/8 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 28.6 pass attempts/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIN and ARI; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Geno SmithNYJ vs CLE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	206.5	-102Novig	-110Circa	3-2Median: 215	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 205.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 206.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 30.6 → latest five: 29 pass attempts/game. Change: -5.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYJ and LV; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jameis WinstonNYG @ WAS · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	200.5	-110Circa	-110Circa	2-3Median: 118	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 199.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/6 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 205.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/6 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Historical workload Latest five: 23 pass attempts/game. 6/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 6 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Deshaun WatsonCLE @ NYJ · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	200.5	-108Novig	-111DraftKings	3-1Median: 221.5	Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 4 qualifying results; five are required. Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Justin HerbertLAC vs DEN · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	200.5	-110Fanatics	-113Pinnacle	3-2Median: 209	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 200.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 201.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 24.4 → latest five: 30.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +23.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jayden DanielsWAS vs NYG · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	193.5	-105Caesars	-113FanDuel	0-5Median: 153	Under lean198.5 (-132) · pinnacleL5 trend + better available lineL5 5/5 · Available 5/9
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 198.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/9 under 198.5; 0 pushes. 9 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 193.5–198.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Latest five: 23 pass attempts/game. 9/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 9 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Cameron WardTEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	190.5	-104Novig	-110Circa	1-4Median: 181	Under lean190.5 (-110) · circaL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 190.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 190.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 189.5–190.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -25.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Malik WillisMIA vs CIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	190.5	+102Novig	-110Circa	4-1Median: 210	Over lean186.5 (-116) · bet365L5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · Available 4/8
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 186.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 4/8 over 186.5; 0 pushes. 8 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 186.5–192.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Latest five: 24.8 pass attempts/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIA and GB; team changes may affect usage. Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jalen HurtsPHI @ JAX · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	186.5	-104Novig	-112DraftKings	2-3Median: 153	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 185.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 190.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28.2 pass attempts/game. Change: -10.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler HuntleyBAL @ ATL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	174.5	-104Novig	-108Novig	1-4Median: 68	Under lean177.5 (-115) · betmgmL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · Five-game sample
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 177.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history Five qualifying games available. L10 is unavailable and is not required. Available lines 7 quoted books: 169.5–177.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Latest five: 15.2 pass attempts/game. 5/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 5 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details

NFL Passing Touchdowns Props

Passing Touchdowns research leans

Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.

Week 5 · Upcoming · IND @ PIT

Daniel Jones

Passing TouchdownsUnder lean

Under 1.5 at -190

novigL5 5/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 27.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -14.7%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 27.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -14.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · CHI @ GB

Jordan Love

Passing TouchdownsOver lean

Over 1.5 at +117

novigL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 28 → latest five: 33.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +19.3%.

See reasoning

Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 over 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

10 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 28 → latest five: 33.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +19.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · LV @ NE

Drake Maye

Passing TouchdownsUnder lean

Under 1.5 at +105

fanaticsL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 30.8 → latest five: 27 pass attempts/game. Change: -12.3%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 under 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

10 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 30.8 → latest five: 27 pass attempts/game. Change: -12.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

How leans are selected

Quarterback	Market	Best over	Best under	L5 · medianRolling	CLEATZ Lean
Week 5 · Upcoming
Jared GoffDET @ ARI · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	2.5	+165BetMGM	-174Novig	1-4Median: 2	Under lean2.5 (-174) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 2.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 2.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 2.5–2.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.6 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Matthew StaffordLA vs BUF · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	2.5	+144Pinnacle	-147Novig	2-3Median: 2	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 2.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 2.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +9.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jacoby BrissettARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	1.5	-130FanDuel	+122Novig	3-2Median: 2	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 1.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 1.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 38.4 → latest five: 36.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -4.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Joe BurrowCIN @ MIA · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	-150Novig	+142DraftKings	3-2Median: 2	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 1.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 1.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 39.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +6.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Josh AllenBUF @ LA · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	1.5	-109Pinnacle	+100Novig	2-3Median: 1	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 1.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 1.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 26.4 → latest five: 30.8 pass attempts/game. Change: +16.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
C.J. StroudHOU @ TEN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+114Caesars	-125Novig	2-3Median: 1	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 1.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 1.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 34.8 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler ShoughNO vs MIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+160Novig	-178Novig	2-3Median: 1	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 1.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 1.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 33.2 → latest five: 43 pass attempts/game. Change: +29.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kirk CousinsLV @ NE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+132Pinnacle	-127Novig	4-1Median: 3	Over lean1.5 (+132) · pinnacleHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 over 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 10 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 35.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +8.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for LV and ATL; team changes may affect usage. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+117Novig	-114DraftKings	4-1Median: 2	Over lean1.5 (+117) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 over 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 10 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 28 → latest five: 33.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +19.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Sam DarnoldSEA vs SF · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	1.5	-104Novig	+100Circa	2-3Median: 1	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 1.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 1.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 30.4 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -19.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Brock PurdySF @ SEA · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	1.5	+111DraftKings	-115Novig	4-1Median: 2	Over lean1.5 (+111) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 over 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28 pass attempts/game. Change: -11.4%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Drake MayeNE vs LV · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	-105BetMGM	+105Fanatics	1-4Median: 1	Under lean1.5 (+105) · fanaticsL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 under 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 10 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 30.8 → latest five: 27 pass attempts/game. Change: -12.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	1.5	+101Pinnacle	-102Novig	3-2Median: 3	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 1.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 1.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 26.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Aaron RodgersPIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+108Novig	-117Novig	2-3Median: 1	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 1.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 1.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 40 pass attempts/game. Change: +23.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bo NixDEN @ LAC · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	1.5	+125bet365	-132FanDuel	1-4Median: 1	Under lean1.5 (-132) · fanduelL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 40.4 → latest five: 31.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -21.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	1.5	+120Novig	-135Novig	1-4Median: 1	Under lean1.5 (-135) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 30.6 → latest five: 25.2 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyson BagentCHI @ GB · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+122bet365	-130DraftKings	0-4Median: 0	Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 4 qualifying results; five are required. Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Daniel JonesIND @ PIT · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+188DraftKings	-190Novig	0-5Median: 1	Under lean1.5 (-190) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 5/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 27.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -14.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kyler MurrayMIN @ NO · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+155Pinnacle	-165Fanatics	1-4Median: 0	Under lean1.5 (-165) · fanaticsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · Available 6/8
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/8 under 1.5; 0 pushes. 8 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 28.6 pass attempts/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIN and ARI; team changes may affect usage. Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Geno SmithNYJ vs CLE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+155BetMGM	-160Fanatics	1-4Median: 1	Under lean1.5 (-160) · fanaticsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 30.6 → latest five: 29 pass attempts/game. Change: -5.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYJ and LV; team changes may affect usage. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jameis WinstonNYG @ WAS · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+194Novig	-199Novig	2-3Median: 0	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 1.5 2/5 recent hits; 2/6 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 1.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/6 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 23 pass attempts/game. 6/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 6 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Deshaun WatsonCLE @ NYJ · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+165Novig	-180Circa	2-2Median: 1.5	Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 4 qualifying results; five are required. Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Justin HerbertLAC vs DEN · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	1.5	+181Caesars	-182Novig	0-5Median: 1	No clear leanBoth sides qualify at different lines
No clear lean · Research notes Over 0.5 5/5 recent hits; 9/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Under 1.5 5/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 24.4 → latest five: 30.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +23.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Both sides qualify at different lines. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jayden DanielsWAS vs NYG · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	1.5	+130BetMGM	-145Pinnacle	1-4Median: 1	Under lean1.5 (-145) · pinnacleHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · Available 6/9
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/9 under 1.5; 0 pushes. 9 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 23 pass attempts/game. 9/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 9 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Cameron WardTEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-144Novig	+140DraftKings	3-2Median: 1	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 0.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 0.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -25.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Malik WillisMIA vs CIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-174Pinnacle	+156DraftKings	2-3Median: 0	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 0.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/8 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 0.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/8 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 24.8 pass attempts/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIA and GB; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jalen HurtsPHI @ JAX · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	0.5	-170Novig	+155HRB	4-1Median: 2	Over lean0.5 (-170) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 0.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 0.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 10 quoted books: 0.5–0.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28.2 pass attempts/game. Change: -10.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler HuntleyBAL @ ATL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	1.5	+189Caesars	-215Fanatics	0-5Median: 0	Under lean1.5 (-215) · fanaticsHistorical L5 trendL5 5/5 · Five-game sample
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history Five qualifying games available. L10 is unavailable and is not required. Available lines 8 quoted books: 0.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 15.2 pass attempts/game. 5/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 5 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details

NFL Passing Completions Props

Passing Completions research leans

Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.

Week 5 · Upcoming · DET @ ARI

Jared Goff

Passing CompletionsOver lean

Over 24.5 at +100

novigL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5

Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.6 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.3%.

See reasoning

Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 24.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 24.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 24.5–25.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.6 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · MIN @ NO

Tyler Shough

Passing CompletionsOver lean

Over 22.5 at -111

pinnacleL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5

Previous five: 33.2 → latest five: 43 pass attempts/game. Change: +29.5%.

See reasoning

Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 22.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 22.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 22.5–22.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 33.2 → latest five: 43 pass attempts/game. Change: +29.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · SF @ SEA

Brock Purdy

Passing CompletionsUnder lean

Under 21.5 at -132

pinnacleL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28 pass attempts/game. Change: -11.4%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 21.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 under 21.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 20.5–21.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28 pass attempts/game. Change: -11.4%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

How leans are selected

Quarterback	Market	Best over	Best under	L5 · medianRolling	CLEATZ Lean
Week 5 · Upcoming
Jared GoffDET @ ARI · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	24.5	+100Novig	+100BetMGM	5-0Median: 26	Over lean24.5 (+100) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 over 24.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 24.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 24.5–25.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.6 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Matthew StaffordLA vs BUF · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	23.5	-104Novig	-111DraftKings	3-2Median: 25	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 23.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 23.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +9.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jacoby BrissettARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	24.5	-108DraftKings	-112Pinnacle	2-3Median: 22	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 24.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 24.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 38.4 → latest five: 36.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -4.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Joe BurrowCIN @ MIA · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	23.5	-113Pinnacle	+100Caesars	4-1Median: 28	Over lean23.5 (-113) · pinnacleHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 9/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 23.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 9/10 over 23.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 23.5–23.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 39.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +6.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Josh AllenBUF @ LA · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	20.5	-118FanDuel	+117Novig	2-3Median: 20	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 20.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 20.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 26.4 → latest five: 30.8 pass attempts/game. Change: +16.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
C.J. StroudHOU @ TEN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	21.5	+108Novig	-117Novig	2-3Median: 21	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 20.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Under 21.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 34.8 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler ShoughNO vs MIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	22.5	-111Pinnacle	-106DraftKings	5-0Median: 29	Over lean22.5 (-111) · pinnacleL5 trend + workload supportL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 over 22.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 22.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 22.5–22.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 33.2 → latest five: 43 pass attempts/game. Change: +29.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kirk CousinsLV @ NE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	21.5	-118BetMGM	+108Novig	2-3Median: 21	Under lean22.5 (-125) · draftkingsL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 22.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 22.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 21.5–22.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 35.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +8.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for LV and ATL; team changes may affect usage. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	21.5	+100Novig	-111Novig	2-3Median: 21	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 21.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 21.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 28 → latest five: 33.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +19.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Sam DarnoldSEA vs SF · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	20.5	+101Pinnacle	-105BetMGM	1-4Median: 18	Under lean20.5 (-105) · betmgmL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 20.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 20.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 20.5–20.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 30.4 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -19.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Brock PurdySF @ SEA · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	20.5	-115DraftKings	-105HRB	1-4Median: 19	Under lean21.5 (-132) · pinnacleL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 21.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 21.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 20.5–21.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28 pass attempts/game. Change: -11.4%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Drake MayeNE vs LV · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	19.5	-104Novig	-106Novig	2-3Median: 14	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 19.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 19.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 30.8 → latest five: 27 pass attempts/game. Change: -12.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	19.5	-110HRB	-105Caesars	1-4Median: 18	Under lean20.5 (-134) · draftkingsL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 20.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 20.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 18.5–20.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 26.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Aaron RodgersPIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	21.5	+117Novig	-120DraftKings	4-1Median: 23	Over lean20.5 (-122) · fanduelL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 20.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 20.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 20.5–21.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 40 pass attempts/game. Change: +23.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bo NixDEN @ LAC · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	21.5	+100Novig	-111Pinnacle	2-3Median: 17	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 21.5 2/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 21.5 3/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 40.4 → latest five: 31.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -21.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	18.5	-104Novig	-102Novig	1-4Median: 15	Under lean18.5 (-102) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 18.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 under 18.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 18.5–18.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 30.6 → latest five: 25.2 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyson BagentCHI @ GB · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	20.5	-102FanDuel	+100Novig	1-3Median: 3.5	Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 4 qualifying results; five are required. Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Daniel JonesIND @ PIT · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	20.5	+106Novig	-125BetMGM	2-3Median: 19	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 19.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 20.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 27.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -14.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kyler MurrayMIN @ NO · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	20.5	-116bet365	-101DraftKings	3-2Median: 23	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 20.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/8 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 21.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/8 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Historical workload Latest five: 28.6 pass attempts/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIN and ARI; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Geno SmithNYJ vs CLE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	20.5	+125Novig	-130FanDuel	2-3Median: 20	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 20.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 20.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 30.6 → latest five: 29 pass attempts/game. Change: -5.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYJ and LV; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jameis WinstonNYG @ WAS · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	18.5	+100BetMGM	+100FanDuel	0-5Median: 14	Under lean18.5 (+100) · fanduelHistorical L5 trendL5 5/5 · Available 5/6
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 18.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/6 under 18.5; 0 pushes. 6 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 18.5–18.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 23 pass attempts/game. 6/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 6 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Deshaun WatsonCLE @ NYJ · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	19.5	+100BetMGM	-105Pinnacle	2-2Median: 20	Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 4 qualifying results; five are required. Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Justin HerbertLAC vs DEN · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	18.5	-103DraftKings	-108Novig	3-2Median: 19	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 18.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 18.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 24.4 → latest five: 30.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +23.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jayden DanielsWAS vs NYG · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	18.5	+117Novig	-122Novig	0-5Median: 12	Under lean18.5 (-122) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 5/5 · Available 6/9
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 18.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/9 under 18.5; 0 pushes. 9 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 18.5–18.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 23 pass attempts/game. 9/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 9 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Cameron WardTEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	19.5	+109Pinnacle	-122Novig	2-3Median: 19	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 18.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 19.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -25.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Malik WillisMIA vs CIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	16.5	-110Pinnacle	-105HRB	2-3Median: 15	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 16.5 2/5 recent hits; 2/8 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 17.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/8 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Historical workload Latest five: 24.8 pass attempts/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIA and GB; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jalen HurtsPHI @ JAX · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	18.5	-110Pinnacle	+105BetMGM	1-4Median: 14	Under lean18.5 (+105) · betmgmL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 18.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 18.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 18.5–18.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28.2 pass attempts/game. Change: -10.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler HuntleyBAL @ ATL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	17.5	-125HRB	+103DraftKings	0-5Median: 10	Under lean18.5 (-148) · caesarsL5 trend + better available lineL5 5/5 · Five-game sample
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 18.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history Five qualifying games available. L10 is unavailable and is not required. Available lines 8 quoted books: 17.5–18.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Latest five: 15.2 pass attempts/game. 5/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 5 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details

NFL Passing Attempts Props

Passing Attempts research leans

Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.

Week 5 · Upcoming · DET @ ARI

Jared Goff

Passing AttemptsOver lean

Over 34.5 at -120

bet365L5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.6 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.3%.

See reasoning

Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 34.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 34.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 34.5–35.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.6 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · PHI @ JAX

Trevor Lawrence

Passing AttemptsUnder lean

Under 30.5 at -123

draftkingsL5 5/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 26.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.3%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 30.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 30.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

6 quoted books: 30.5–30.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 26.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · DEN @ LAC

Bo Nix

Passing AttemptsUnder lean

Under 34.5 at -125

fanduelL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 40.4 → latest five: 31.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -21.8%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 34.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 under 34.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 33.5–34.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 40.4 → latest five: 31.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -21.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

How leans are selected

Quarterback	Market	Best over	Best under	L5 · medianRolling	CLEATZ Lean
Week 5 · Upcoming
Jared GoffDET @ ARI · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	35.5	+113Novig	-118BetMGM	4-1Median: 39	Over lean34.5 (-120) · bet365L5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 34.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 over 34.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 34.5–35.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.6 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Matthew StaffordLA vs BUF · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	37.5	-105Pinnacle	-112DraftKings	3-2Median: 40	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 36.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 37.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 40.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +9.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jacoby BrissettARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	37.5	+104Novig	-111bet365	1-4Median: 35	Under lean37.5 (-111) · bet365Historical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 37.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 under 37.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 9 quoted books: 36.5–37.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 38.4 → latest five: 36.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -4.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Joe BurrowCIN @ MIA · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	32.5	-125DraftKings	+102Pinnacle	4-1Median: 37	Over lean32.5 (-125) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 32.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 over 32.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 32.5–33.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 39.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +6.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Josh AllenBUF @ LA · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	32.5	-112Caesars	-108DraftKings	2-3Median: 31	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 31.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Under 32.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 26.4 → latest five: 30.8 pass attempts/game. Change: +16.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
C.J. StroudHOU @ TEN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	31.5	-104Novig	-104DraftKings	2-3Median: 31	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 31.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 31.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 34.8 pass attempts/game. Change: +10.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler ShoughNO vs MIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	36.5	+106Novig	-110Pinnacle	3-2Median: 42	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 35.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Under 36.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 33.2 → latest five: 43 pass attempts/game. Change: +29.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kirk CousinsLV @ NE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	33.5	-118DraftKings	+100Caesars	1-4Median: 32	Under lean34.5 (-115) · pinnacleL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 34.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 34.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 33.5–34.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 35.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +8.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for LV and ATL; team changes may affect usage. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	34.5	+108Novig	-124DraftKings	2-3Median: 30	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 33.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Under 34.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 28 → latest five: 33.4 pass attempts/game. Change: +19.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Sam DarnoldSEA vs SF · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	30.5	-103Pinnacle	-106Novig	1-4Median: 26	Under lean30.5 (-106) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 30.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 30.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 30.5–30.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 30.4 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -19.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Brock PurdySF @ SEA · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	32.5	+104Novig	-110BetMGM	1-4Median: 27	Under lean32.5 (-110) · betmgmL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 32.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 32.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 32.5–32.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28 pass attempts/game. Change: -11.4%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Drake MayeNE vs LV · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	29.5	-120HRB	-103DraftKings	2-3Median: 25	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 29.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 30.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 30.8 → latest five: 27 pass attempts/game. Change: -12.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	30.5	+101Pinnacle	-123DraftKings	0-5Median: 29	Under lean30.5 (-123) · draftkingsL5 trend + workload supportL5 5/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 30.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 30.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 30.5–30.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 26.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Aaron RodgersPIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	34.5	-120HRB	+102FanDuel	4-1Median: 40	Over lean34.5 (-120) · hardrockbetL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 34.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 over 34.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 34.5–35.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 32.4 → latest five: 40 pass attempts/game. Change: +23.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bo NixDEN @ LAC · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	33.5	-105Caesars	-116DraftKings	2-3Median: 31	Under lean34.5 (-125) · fanduelL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 34.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 34.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 33.5–34.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 40.4 → latest five: 31.6 pass attempts/game. Change: -21.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	29.5	+100Novig	-107DraftKings	1-4Median: 25	Under lean29.5 (-107) · draftkingsL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 29.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 under 29.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 29.5–29.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 30.6 → latest five: 25.2 pass attempts/game. Change: -17.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyson BagentCHI @ GB · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	31.5	-105Caesars	-106Novig	1-3Median: 6	Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 4 qualifying results; five are required. Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Daniel JonesIND @ PIT · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	31.5	-113DraftKings	+102Novig	2-3Median: 31	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 31.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 31.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 27.8 pass attempts/game. Change: -14.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kyler MurrayMIN @ NO · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	31.5	-111Pinnacle	+100Novig	2-3Median: 31	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 31.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/8 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 32.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/8 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Historical workload Latest five: 28.6 pass attempts/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIN and ARI; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Geno SmithNYJ vs CLE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	30.5	-120HRB	-103Pinnacle	2-3Median: 28	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 30.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 31.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Historical workload Previous five: 30.6 → latest five: 29 pass attempts/game. Change: -5.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYJ and LV; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jameis WinstonNYG @ WAS · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	30.5	-108Novig	-105BetMGM	1-4Median: 27	Under lean31.5 (-129) · pinnacleL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · Available 5/6
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 31.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/6 under 31.5; 0 pushes. 6 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 30.5–31.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Latest five: 23 pass attempts/game. 6/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 6 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Deshaun WatsonCLE @ NYJ · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	31.5	+115Novig	-120DraftKings	1-3Median: 30	Insufficient history4/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 4 qualifying results; five are required. Last 4 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Justin HerbertLAC vs DEN · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	30.5	+100Fanatics	-106Novig	3-2Median: 31	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 30.5 3/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 30.5 2/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 24.4 → latest five: 30.2 pass attempts/game. Change: +23.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jayden DanielsWAS vs NYG · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	29.5	+104Novig	-105DraftKings	1-4Median: 22	Under lean29.5 (-105) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · Available 6/9
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 29.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/9 under 29.5; 0 pushes. 9 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 29.5–29.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 23 pass attempts/game. 9/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 9 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Cameron WardTEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	31.5	+104Novig	-108Novig	2-3Median: 31	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 31.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 31.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 24.4 pass attempts/game. Change: -25.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Malik WillisMIA vs CIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	28.5	+100Novig	-115DraftKings	1-4Median: 23	Under lean28.5 (-115) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · Available 7/8
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 28.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/8 under 28.5; 0 pushes. 8 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 28.5–28.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 24.8 pass attempts/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIA and GB; team changes may affect usage. Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jalen HurtsPHI @ JAX · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	31.5	-110HRB	-109DraftKings	1-4Median: 27	Under lean31.5 (-109) · draftkingsL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 31.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 under 31.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 30.5–31.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 31.6 → latest five: 28.2 pass attempts/game. Change: -10.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler HuntleyBAL @ ATL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	27.5	+100Fanatics	-120HRB	0-5Median: 15	Under lean27.5 (-120) · hardrockbetHistorical L5 trendL5 5/5 · Five-game sample
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 27.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history Five qualifying games available. L10 is unavailable and is not required. Available lines 8 quoted books: 27.5–27.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 15.2 pass attempts/game. 5/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 5 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details

NFL Passing Interceptions Props

Interception market research

Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.

No props currently meet the research screen. Explore the board below for available lines and history.

How leans are selected

Quarterback	Market	Best over	Best under	L5 · medianRolling	CLEATZ Lean
Week 5 · Upcoming
Jared GoffDET @ ARI · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	0.5	+133Novig	-144Novig	1-4Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Matthew StaffordLA vs BUF · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	0.5	-113Pinnacle	-110Caesars	4-1Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jacoby BrissettARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	0.5	+105Fanatics	-104Novig	3-2Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Joe BurrowCIN @ MIA · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	+144DraftKings	-159Pinnacle	3-2Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Josh AllenBUF @ LA · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM	0.5	-125bet365	+105DraftKings	2-3Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
C.J. StroudHOU @ TEN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	+135DraftKings	-153Pinnacle	0-5Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler ShoughNO vs MIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-125BetMGM	+125Novig	3-2Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kirk CousinsLV @ NE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-117Novig	+106Novig	4-1Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-125BetMGM	+104Pinnacle	3-2Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Sam DarnoldSEA vs SF · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	0.5	+111Caesars	-127Novig	3-2Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Brock PurdySF @ SEA · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM	0.5	-135Novig	+136DraftKings	2-3Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Drake MayeNE vs LV · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-113Novig	+100BetMGM	4-1Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	0.5	-110Fanatics	+100BetMGM	2-3Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Aaron RodgersPIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	+110BetMGM	-133DraftKings	3-2Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bo NixDEN @ LAC · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	0.5	-132DraftKings	+106Pinnacle	3-2Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	0.5	+116DraftKings	-140BetMGM	1-4Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyson BagentCHI @ GB · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-105HRB	-117Pinnacle	1-3Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Daniel JonesIND @ PIT · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-115BetMGM	+105DraftKings	5-0Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kyler MurrayMIN @ NO · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	+110bet365	-136DraftKings	3-2Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Geno SmithNYJ vs CLE · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-120Novig	+112Pinnacle	1-4Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jameis WinstonNYG @ WAS · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	-178Novig	+145Caesars	3-2Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Deshaun WatsonCLE @ NYJ · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	+113Novig	-124Caesars	2-2Median: 0.5	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Justin HerbertLAC vs DEN · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM	0.5	-127Novig	+107Caesars	5-0Median: 1	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jayden DanielsWAS vs NYG · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	+112Pinnacle	-139Caesars	2-3Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Cameron WardTEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	+107DraftKings	-119Pinnacle	2-3Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Malik WillisMIA vs CIN · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM	0.5	+105Pinnacle	-121DraftKings	2-3Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jalen HurtsPHI @ JAX · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	0.5	-120BetMGM	+115Novig	2-3Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler HuntleyBAL @ ATL · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM	0.5	+110DraftKings	-135BetMGM	0-5Median: 0	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Travis HunterJAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM	0.5	+1100FanDuel	—	—	WatchlistMarket not supported for automatic leans
Watchlist · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop This market needs a separate evaluation method; no automatic lean is issued. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details

Market = the main line most of the books we shop actually post, never an average; ~ marks a row where no book we shop has posted yet, so the figure is our feed’s wider-market estimate rather than a bettable line. Best over / best under = the best PRICE at that same line, so they compare like for like; ≠ marks a pick at a different threshold, which is a different bet rather than a better price. L5 = his record against the market line over the last five logged games, pushes shown separately — past results, not a projection. Tap any QB for the full log and a hit rate against any posted line. Books: DK, FD, MGM, CZR, HRB, FAN, B365, PIN, CIR, Novig. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Longest Completion

Best available number, then best price at that number. Compare all quoted lines below.

Longest Completion research leans

Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.

Week 5 · Upcoming · PHI @ JAX

Trevor Lawrence

Passing LongestCompletionUnder lean

Under 37.5 at -113

draftkingsL5 5/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 33 → latest five: 26.8 opportunities/game. Change: -18.8%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 37.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 37.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

5 quoted books: 35.5–37.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 33 → latest five: 26.8 opportunities/game. Change: -18.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · CIN @ MIA

Joe Burrow

Passing LongestCompletionUnder lean

Under 35.5 at -110

hardrockbetL5 5/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 39.2 opportunities/game. Change: +6.5%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 35.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 under 35.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

4 quoted books: 35.5–35.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 36.8 → latest five: 39.2 opportunities/game. Change: +6.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 5 · Upcoming · IND @ PIT

Daniel Jones

Passing LongestCompletionUnder lean

Under 32.5 at -120

hardrockbetL5 4/5 · L10 4/10 · L10 conflicts with L5

Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 27.8 opportunities/game. Change: -14.7%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 32.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

4/10 under 32.5; 0 pushes. L10 conflicts with L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

4 quoted books: 31.5–32.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 32.6 → latest five: 27.8 opportunities/game. Change: -14.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 10, 3:20 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 conflicts with L5: 4/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

How leans are selected

Hit rates for

Week 5 · Upcoming

Jalen HurtsPHI @ JAX · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET

Under lean

Over30.5 (-120)betmgm

Under32.5 (-115)draftkings

Over 30.5 yards

L5 1/5L10 3/10

Median longest: 27.5 yd · Attempts/game: 29.5

10 qualifying games · 2025-11-28 to 2026-10-04

Longest-play chart, game log & books

NFL Passing Props Week 5: QB Yards, TDs & Best Odds

NFL Passing Yards Props

Passing Yards research leans

Tyler Shough

Over lean · Research notes

Sam Darnold

Under lean · Research notes

Drake Maye

Under lean · Research notes

No clear lean · Research notes

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Over lean · Research notes

No clear lean · Research notes

Over lean · Research notes

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Under lean · Research notes

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Under lean · Research notes

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Under lean · Research notes

No clear lean · Research notes

Insufficient history · Research notes

Under lean · Research notes

No clear lean · Research notes

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Insufficient history · Research notes

No clear lean · Research notes

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Over lean · Research notes

No clear lean · Research notes

Under lean · Research notes

NFL Passing Touchdowns Props

Passing Touchdowns research leans

Daniel Jones

Under lean · Research notes

Jordan Love

Over lean · Research notes

Drake Maye

Under lean · Research notes

Under lean · Research notes

No clear lean · Research notes

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Over lean · Research notes

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Insufficient history · Research notes

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No clear lean · Research notes

Insufficient history · Research notes

No clear lean · Research notes

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NFL Passing Completions Props

Passing Completions research leans

Jared Goff

Over lean · Research notes

Tyler Shough

Over lean · Research notes

Brock Purdy