PGA Championship 2026: Aronimink Awaits
The Wanamaker Trophy is up for grabs as 156 of the world’s best descend on a classic Donald Ross design outside Philadelphia.
The Favorites
Our model gives these five the highest combined make-cut, top-finish, and outright win probabilities in the field.
Cleatz Take
Scheffler’s 14% win number is roughly double the field’s #2, and the gap is even wider at the top of the leaderboard — a 38% Top-5 hit rate is the kind of edge that prices into every prop on the board. The interesting bet isn’t whether Scottie is the favorite; it’s whether you can find spots where the book hasn’t shaded heavily enough toward him.
Cleatz Model · Full Top 23
Win, finish-position, and make-cut probabilities for the headline contenders.
| # | Player | Make Cut | Top 20 | Top 10 | Top 5 | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 92% | 70% | 53% | 38% | 14.0% |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | 87% | 56% | 39% | 26% | 7.7% |
| 3 | Jon Rahm | 86% | 53% | 35% | 22% | 5.9% |
| 4 | Cameron Young | 84% | 50% | 33% | 21% | 5.8% |
| 5 | Xander Schauffele | 84% | 49% | 32% | 20% | 5.3% |
| 6 | Ludvig Aberg | 81% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 4.0% |
| 7 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 81% | 41% | 25% | 14% | 3.1% |
| 8 | Bryson DeChambeau | 77% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 2.7% |
| 9 | Tommy Fleetwood | 78% | 35% | 20% | 11% | 2.0% |
| 10 | Patrick Cantlay | 77% | 33% | 18% | 9.5% | 1.9% |
| 11 | Min Woo Lee | 75% | 31% | 17% | 9.0% | 1.8% |
| 12 | Nicolai Hojgaard | 73% | 29% | 15% | 8.0% | 1.5% |
| 13 | Adam Scott | 73% | 29% | 15% | 7.8% | 1.5% |
| 14 | Chris Gotterup | 72% | 27% | 15% | 7.4% | 1.4% |
| 15 | Rickie Fowler | 73% | 28% | 15% | 7.4% | 1.4% |
| 16 | Sam Burns | 72% | 27% | 14% | 7.2% | 1.4% |
| 17 | Collin Morikawa | 73% | 28% | 15% | 7.3% | 1.3% |
| 18 | Si Woo Kim | 74% | 29% | 15% | 7.0% | 1.2% |
| 19 | Kurt Kitayama | 70% | 24% | 13% | 6.3% | 1.2% |
| 20 | Viktor Hovland | 72% | 27% | 14% | 6.7% | 1.1% |
| 21 | J.J. Spaun | 73% | 27% | 14% | 6.8% | 1.1% |
| 22 | Russell Henley | 73% | 27% | 13% | 6.4% | 1.1% |
| 23 | Robert MacIntyre | 73% | 27% | 14% | 6.6% | 1.1% |
Outright Odds Across the Books
Best price highlighted in green. 72H Move shows direction since opening.
| # | Golfer | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Kalshi Mkt | 72H Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | +345 | +480 | +450 | 17% | ▲ +70 |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | +870 | +850 | +850 | 9% | ▲ +150 |
| 3 | Cameron Young | +1550 | +1200 | +1200 | 6% | ▼ -800 |
| 4 | Jon Rahm | +1325 | +1500 | +1600 | 6% | → +6 |
| 5 | Bryson DeChambeau | +1750 | +2200 | +1800 | 4% | ▲ +631 |
| 6 | Xander Schauffele | +1900 | +1600 | +1800 | 5% | ▲ +106 |
| 7 | Ludvig Aberg | +1900 | +2000 | +2000 | 4% | ▲ +200 |
| 8 | Matthew Fitzpatrick | +2150 | +2200 | +2200 | — | ▼ -771 |
| 9 | Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 | +2700 | +2200 | 3% | ▲ +405 |
| 10 | Brooks Koepka | +3400 | +4500 | +4000 | 2% | ▲ +603 |
| 11 | Collin Morikawa | +3600 | +4500 | +4000 | 2% | ▲ +1659 |
| 12 | Justin Thomas | +4500 | +4000 | +4000 | 2% | ▲ +1358 |
| 13 | Justin Rose | +4400 | +5500 | +4500 | 2% | ▲ +1103 |
| 14 | Patrick Cantlay | +4900 | +4500 | +4500 | 2% | → +264 |
| 15 | Russell Henley | +4700 | +5500 | +5000 | 1% | ▼ -654 |
| 16 | Tyrrell Hatton | +5500 | +6000 | +4500 | 1% | ▲ +1500 |
| 17 | Viktor Hovland | +5500 | +5500 | +5000 | 1% | ▲ +2103 |
| 18 | Min Woo Lee | +5900 | +4500 | +6000 | 1% | ▼ -1334 |
| 19 | Christopher Gotterup | +7000 | +6000 | +6000 | — | ▲ +1764 |
Line Shop of the Week
FanDuel’s +480 on Scheffler is meaningfully better than DraftKings (+345) and BetMGM (+450) — that’s roughly a 30% better payout on the same bet. If Scottie is on your card, this is one of the largest top-favorite price gaps you’ll see at a major. Cameron Young at +1550 on DraftKings is similarly worth a look against the FD/MGM +1200.
Prediction Market Snapshot
Live “yes” probabilities from Kalshi — peer-to-peer trading, no house vig.
Model vs Market
Our model has Scheffler at 14% to win, Kalshi has him at 17%, and FanDuel implies ~17% — those are tightly aligned. The bigger gap is at Rory: model 7.7%, Kalshi 9%, FD/MGM ~10.5%. Books and prediction markets are pricing him a tier above where our numbers say he should sit, which means any Rory bet is buying public confidence, not value.
4-Round Weather Outlook · Aronimink
Wind, temperature, and rain projections for each round. The Saturday storm is the swing factor.
💧 88% RAIN · 0.07″ precip
Weather Edge
The Saturday afternoon storm is the biggest variable. If late-Thursday tee times correlate to late-Saturday tee times in the tournament’s wave structure, the morning side of the draw gets a clean Round 3 while the afternoon wave plays through gusts and rain. Watch the wave splits Wednesday night — they’ll move some props.
Beyond the Top Tier
Names in the 6-10 range with the profiles to make a weekend run.
Cleatz Tools for Championship Week
Everything we’ve built for PGA Championship coverage, all in one spot.
PGA Caddie Dashboard
Live odds, weather, and field movement updated throughout the week — your one-stop view for everything happening at Aronimink.
Model Win Probabilities
Make-cut, top-finish, and outright win projections refreshed against the live board. Full 156-player field, sortable.
Multi-Book Odds Compare
Best price at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, plus Kalshi prediction-market context. Line shopping in one screen.
Round-by-Round Weather
Hourly wind, temp, and precipitation for all four rounds via WeatherAPI — the same data the caddies are looking at.
Odds and percentages reflect data as of publication and will move throughout the week. Cleatz model probabilities are estimates — past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
