The Heisman Trophy race is heating up, but the sportsbooks and prediction markets are telling very different stories. DraftKings has planted its flag behind Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, while Kalshi and Polymarket traders are quietly pushing back, pricing several contenders far differently than the books. And whenever the markets disagree this much, it usually means one thing for bettors: Value is hiding in plain sight. We dug into all three boards to find where the Heisman odds are mispriced, which longshots are being slept on, and whether any real arbitrage windows are emerging for 2025.
Summary Table — Market vs Books
| Player | DK Implied Prob | Kalshi Prob | Polymarket Prob | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza | ~51.2% (-105) | 43% | 46% | DK is significantly higher → NO value on DK, value to short on prediction markets |
| Julian Sayin | ~37% (+170) | 35% | 36% | All markets synced → No clear value |
| Marcel Reed | ~15.4% (+550) | 13% | 10% | DK slightly high → NO value, slight value on Polymarket YES (10¢) |
| Jeremiyah Love | ~3.85% (+2500) | 7% | 5% | Huge value gap — DK is WAY lower → major value bet on DK YES |
| Jeremiah Smith | ~1.6% (+6000) | 4% | ~4% | Prediction markets value him more → value bet on DK YES |
| Diego Pavia | ~5.88% (+1600) | 3% | 4% | DK overvalued → little value, maybe short DK NO |
| Gunner Stockton | ~2.8% (+3500) | 3% | 3% | Tight, no value |
| Haynes King | ~1.8% (+5500) | NM | ±3–4% | Possible value on DK YES |
| Longshots (30–35k) | <1% | <1–2% | <1–2% | No value |
Most Valuable Opportunities
✅ 1. Jeremiyah Love (+2500 DK)
- DK: ~3.8% implied
- Kalshi: 7%
- Polymarket: 5%
This is the clearest value on the board.
Markets think Love is nearly 2× more likely to win than DK does.
This is exactly the profile of a value bet, an underpriced longshot who has seen upward movement.
➡️ Best Value Bet: Jeremiyah Love DK +2500
✅ 2. Jeremiah Smith (+6000 DK)
- DK: ~1.6%
- Kalshi: 4%
- Polymarket: ~4%
Prediction markets price him 2–3× higher than DK.
If you’re comfortable with a deep longshot who has underlying market conviction, Smith is worth a flier.
➡️ Secondary Value Bet: Jeremiah Smith DK +6000
3. Fade Opportunity — Fernando Mendoza (DK is overpriced)
- DK: ~51%
- Kalshi: 43%
- Polymarket: 46%
DraftKings has him priced significantly higher than the markets. This is rare because sportsbooks are usually the discount source vs prediction markets.
This gives:
Value in:
- Kalshi NO at 60.3¢
- Polymarket NO at 55¢
These are underpriced relative to DK.
➡️ Value Fade: Mendoza “NO” on prediction markets
Possible Arbitrage Opportunities
True arbitrage comes when:
- A “YES” on one market
- Costs less than the “NO” on another
- When both imply a >100% combined payout
Let’s check the closest candidates:
1. Mendoza — almost arbitrage, but not quite
- Polymarket YES: 46¢
- Kalshi NO: 60.3¢
46¢ + 60.3¢ = 106.3¢ → No arb
You’d lose 6.3¢ per $1.
But if spreads tighten (e.g., YES dips to 41¢), a window could open.
Keep this one on watch.
2. Sayin — No arbitrage
- YES 36¢ (Poly)
- NO 65¢ (Poly)
36 + 65 = 101
→ No arb.
3. Reed — No arbitrage but close
- Poly YES 10¢
- Kalshi NO 89¢
10 + 89 = 99 → Technically a micro-arb if fills execute perfectly
But slippage kills these tiny edges.
4. Jeremiyah Love — Not an arbitrage, but HUGE value gap
- Poly YES 5¢
- Kalshi YES 9.2¢
- DK YES +2500 (value bet, not arb)
The markets disagree wildly.
Not arb but indicators say DK is wrong here → value bet instead of arbitrage.
Best Overall Strategy from These Markets
1. Bet the value:
- Jeremiyah Love DK +2500
- Jeremiah Smith DK +6000
2. “Short” the overpriced favorite:
- Mendoza NO @ Kalshi (60.3¢)
- Mendoza NO @ Polymarket (55¢)
3. Monitor Mendoza for arbitrage
If Polymarket YES dips under 40¢, you get risk-free arb by pairing Kalshi NO.
🔥 FINAL VERDICT — Clear Winners
BEST VALUE BETS
- Jeremiyah Love DK +2500
- Jeremiah Smith DK +6000
BEST SHORT / FADE
- Fernando Mendoza — Prediction Market NO
