Texans vs. Steelers Player Props: Best Wildcard MNF Picks & Odds

Welcome back to Cleatz.com’s NFL Player Props Today, where we break down the smartest Over/Under bets and stat-based edges across the NFL Wildcard Weekend slate.

Every line below is based on verified sportsbook data, with prop hit rates, matchup notes, and a dash of wit from your favorite football nerds.

NFL Wildcard Props Data – Jan. 12, 2026

Texans vs. Steelers Top Selections

🏆 Best Overall Props

Jaylen Warren Over 1.5 Receptions (-158)
• 80% hit rate over both L5 and L10
• Strong involvement in short-area passing game
• One of the most consistent edges on the board
DK Metcalf Over 3.5 Receptions (-182)
• Texans allowing 100% hit rate (L5) to this prop type
• High floor despite juiced odds

📈 Texans Passing Game Angles

C.J. Stroud Over 34.5 Longest Pass (-114)
• Clean 60% L5/L10 hit rate
• Lower variance than full passing yards
Nico Collins Receiving Yards (69.5 / 71.5)
• Consistent 60% form
• Ceiling dependent, but volume stable
Dalton Schultz Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-146)
• Safer mid-range option
• Red-zone + chain-moving usage

⚠️ Higher-Risk / Plus-Money Looks

Calvin Austin III Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (+118)
• Defensive matchup favorable (60% DVP)
• Needs efficiency more than volume
Calvin Austin III Over 1.5 Receptions (+124)
• Volatile, but plus-money exposure if game script tilts pass-heavy

🎯 Best Parlay Building Blocks

Jaylen Warren Over 1.5 Receptions
C.J. Stroud Over 34.5 Longest Pass
DK Metcalf Over 3.5 Receptions

High consistency, correlated game environment, minimal yardage variance.

Player	Game	Prop	Line	Odds	Prob%	L5	L10	DVP L5	DVP L10
Jaylen Warren	HOU at PIT	Receptions	Over 1.5	-158	61.2	80	80	60	70
Nick Chubb	HOU at PIT	Rushing Yards	Over 15.5	-114	53.3	60	80	40	30
C.J. Stroud	HOU at PIT	Longest Pass	Over 34.5	-114	53.3	60	60	60	50
Calvin Austin III	HOU at PIT	Receiving Yards	Over 11.5	-114	53.3	40	60	60	70
Aaron Rodgers	HOU at PIT	Passing Yards	Over 204.5	-114	53.3	80	50	60	40
Nico Collins	HOU at PIT	Receiving Yards	Over 71.5	-114	53.3	60	60	40	40
Nico Collins	HOU at PIT	Receiving Yards	Over 69.5	-114	53.3	60	60	40	40
DK Metcalf	HOU at PIT	Receptions	Over 3.5	-182	64.5	60	50	100	70
Nico Collins	HOU at PIT	Longest Reception	Over 24.5	-120	54.5	60	50	40	40
Calvin Austin III	HOU at PIT	Longest Reception	Over 9.5	-106	51.5	40	50	80	80
Calvin Austin III	HOU at PIT	Receiving Yards	Over 14.5	+118	45.9	40	50	60	60
Dalton Schultz	HOU at PIT	Receiving Yards	Over 39.5	-146	59.3	40	60	40	30
Jaylen Warren	HOU at PIT	Receiving Yards	Over 12.5	-114	53.3	60	40	80	70
Jayden Higgins	HOU at PIT	Receiving Yards	Over 29.5	-118	54.1	40	60	20	40
Jayden Higgins	HOU at PIT	Receiving Yards	Over 30.5	-114	53.3	40	60	20	40
Calvin Austin III	HOU at PIT	Receptions	Over 1.5	+124	44.6	20	50	40	60
C.J. Stroud	HOU at PIT	Passing Yards	Over 229.5	-114	53.3	40	50	60	50
Jayden Higgins	HOU at PIT	Longest Reception	Over 16.5	-122	55.0	60	50	20	40