Underdog Supercharge: Bigger Payouts, But What’s the Catch?

Underdog has introduced Supercharge, a new type of sports event contract that rewards traders for correctly picking the winner while requiring that team’s market-implied win probability to remain above a preset level throughout the game.

Underdog CEO Jeremy Levine introduced the feature on X on November 12, pitching it as a way to pick a favorite while receiving a payout more commonly associated with an underdog.

Supercharge debuted publicly with Thursday night’s Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants matchup.

It’s an interesting addition to the growing sports prediction-market landscape. But the larger multipliers come with a substantial trade-off: picking the winning team isn’t enough.

What Is Underdog Supercharge?

Supercharge is a win-probability-based event contract offered through Underdog Exchange (UDX), a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated designated contract market.

Unlike an ordinary moneyline, where the outcome depends on which team wins, Supercharge adds a second requirement.

That threshold is called the bust line.

For example, imagine the Kansas City Chiefs enter a game with a 75% market-implied chance of winning. You choose the Chiefs with a 60% Supercharge threshold.

If Kansas City wins and its reference probability never falls below 60%, your entry wins.

But if the Chiefs fall to 59% during the game, rally in the fourth quarter and ultimately win, your Supercharge entry still loses.

That’s what makes this fundamentally different from an ordinary moneyline selection.

Real Example: Giants vs. Commanders Supercharge Payouts

Levine’s launch screenshots provided a useful illustration of how dramatically payouts can change depending on the selected probability floor.

The Giants were shown with approximately a 53% pregame win probability. Setting the bust line at 50% left very little room for the market to move against New York.

In exchange, the displayed return increased from 1.83x on the ordinary moneyline to 4.98x on Supercharge.

On a hypothetical $100 entry, the 4.98x multiplier represents $498 in total payout, or $398 in profit if successful, before any applicable fees.

But those additional dollars aren’t free. The entry now has to survive the entire game without the reference probability slipping below 50%.

Is Underdog Supercharge Actually a Good Deal?

This is where the launch gets particularly interesting.

Higher payout multipliers attract attention, but the relevant question is whether those multipliers adequately compensate for the additional risk.

Establish The Run’s Cody Main raised concerns about the pricing, examining historical games in which teams entered with win probabilities between 50% and 56%.

Using closing lines and ESPN win-probability data, his analysis found that those teams stayed above a 50% threshold throughout the game approximately 8.7% of the time.

That result implies a break-even payout of approximately 11.49x, compared with the 4.51x Giants price Main observed earlier that afternoon.

There’s an important caveat: Main used ESPN-derived historical probabilities, while Underdog officially settles Supercharge contracts using Kalshi-derived reference prices.

Those methodologies are not interchangeable. His historical results do not establish the actual win rate, fair price or operator edge for a specific Underdog contract.

Still, the comparison raises a legitimate pricing question: how frequently does a team actually win without ever breaking the selected probability floor?

Until there is more contract-specific settlement data, CLEATZ would treat high Supercharge multipliers with caution rather than assume the larger payout represents superior value.

How Does Underdog Calculate Win Probability?

One of the most surprising details is that Supercharge does not simply rely on ESPN’s familiar in-game win-probability graph.

According to Underdog Exchange’s contract specifications, settlement uses trade-price information from designated Kalshi moneyline markets.

The reference probability is determined using a rolling average of one-minute, volume-weighted trade prices.

Contract specifications allow an averaging window of one to ten minutes, with the applicable window specified for each contract.

This matters because the displayed game graph and the official settlement reference can differ.

A momentary movement below the threshold on another site’s chart does not necessarily mean the contract has been knocked out.

The official reference value must breach the threshold under the contract’s settlement rules.

For readers interested in comparing how prediction markets price NFL teams, CLEATZ tracks market-implied probabilities alongside sportsbook prices on our NFL odds and moneyline comparison tool.

You can also explore our Kalshi guide to understand the exchange being used as the underlying probability reference.

Why a Favorite Can Become a Losing Supercharge Pick

Consider a hypothetical game:

Even though the team ultimately won, the Supercharge selection failed once the official reference probability breached 60%.

A confirmed knockout is final.

That creates a very different type of risk from an ordinary moneyline. The trader must forecast not only the final winner, but how the market will value that team’s chances throughout the contest.

It also means injuries, turnovers, unexpected scoring swings and market reactions can matter enormously.

Before examining a potential Supercharge entry, research the matchup with the CLEATZ NFL line movement tracker, public betting splits and NFL betting hub.

These tools provide useful context, although they cannot predict the precise Kalshi-based path used for Supercharge settlement.

Can You Cash Out or Combine Supercharge Picks?

At launch, Underdog has several important restrictions:

• Pregame only: New Supercharge entries must be submitted before kickoff.
• Single selections only: Supercharge cannot currently be combined with other picks.
• No cash out: Entries remain open until settlement.
• Locked payout: The submitted payout multiplier does not change after the entry is accepted.
• Settlement delay: Knockouts may require a reference-data review before grading becomes final.

Underdog has also filed a live-trading version of the product with the CFTC. However, the in-game entry feature was not available in the public launch materials.

For readers who prefer constructing multiple selections, our CLEATZ Combo Lab focuses on a different category of prediction-market products. Supercharge itself is not currently a combination market.

How Does Supercharge Compare With Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig?

Supercharge is another sign that prediction markets are developing products beyond conventional yes/no moneyline contracts.

The interesting innovation isn’t simply a boosted payout. It’s the addition of a path-dependent condition to an existing sports outcome.

For regular moneylines, a dramatic comeback can turn a losing position into a winner. With Supercharge, that same comeback may be irrelevant because the threshold has already been breached.

Compare the traditional alternatives using our Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig guides.

Underdog Supercharge Promo Codes and Availability

Users can find eligible Supercharge contracts in the Underdog app when supported events are offered.

Underdog says certain eligible Supercharge entries can also use promotional features such as Boost, No Sweat and Bonus Entry tokens, subject to their specific terms.

However, users should not confuse those offers with Underdog’s separate fantasy welcome promotions.

As of launch, Underdog had not published a standalone Supercharge state-availability list or a product-specific public fee schedule.

Availability may vary based on physical location, applicable exchange routing and the events offered in the app. Users should verify access and the final contract terms before trading.

Frequently Asked Questions

The CLEATZ Take: Innovation Is Good, Pricing Still Matters

Supercharge is genuinely an interesting addition to the sports prediction-market industry.

It introduces a new way to express an opinion about a game: not just which team will win, but how much adversity that team will experience along the way.

For traders who follow market probabilities closely, that creates another variable to evaluate.

But innovation alone doesn’t make a contract attractive.

The biggest concern is that users may see a substantially larger multiplier and underestimate how frequently even strong favorites experience temporary drops in their win probability.

The early historical analysis raises questions about whether certain Supercharge payouts adequately reflect that additional risk. More evidence using actual settlement data is needed before drawing firm conclusions.

Our bottom line: Supercharge deserves attention as a prediction-market innovation. But before accepting a 4x or 5x payout, the important number isn’t the multiplier. It’s the realistic probability that both conditions can be satisfied.

Sources and Further Reading

• Jeremy Levine’s Supercharge launch announcement
• Underdog’s official launch post
• Underdog: Supercharge rules
• CFTC: Supercharged pregame contract filing
• Cody Main’s historical probability analysis

Published November 13, 2026. Historical payouts shown are launch examples and are not current quotes. Affiliate disclosure: CLEATZ may earn compensation from qualifying registrations through partner links. Eligibility, age requirements and location restrictions apply. 21+ where required. Trading involves risk, including possible total loss of your position. For gambling-related support, call 1-800-GAMBLER. This article is for informational purposes and is not investment advice.