Three entries. Two still breathing. One courtesy exit from the Chargers.
That is where I stand heading into Week 2 of the Splash Sports $21 million Survivor World Championship. I started with $3,000 across three entries, using the Raiders, Chargers and Eagles in Week 1. Las Vegas and Philadelphia advanced. The Chargers ticket is finished.
Now comes the decision that makes survivor interesting: put both remaining entries on the strongest favorite, or split them and accept a little more risk on one ticket to avoid having everything ride on one game?
My current lean is San Francisco on one entry and Tampa Bay on the other. Those are preliminary selections, not locked picks. Here is how I am approaching my Splash entries—and what I would consider differently in Circa.
My Splash Survivor entries after Week 1
| Entry | Week 1 selection | Status | Week 2 lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry 1 | Las Vegas Raiders | Alive | San Francisco over Miami |
| Entry 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | Alive | Tampa Bay over Cleveland |
| Entry 2 | Los Angeles Chargers | Eliminated | — |
The Splash Week 1 recap shows 26.4% of entries selected the Chargers. Jacksonville also drew 26.4%, followed by Pittsburgh at 20.7%. My two winners were less popular: the Raiders at 7.2% and Eagles at 5.3%.
Spreading my picks kept one upset from ending my entire contest. That does not make every split a smart one. I still have to judge the quality of each selection before I worry about how neatly the tickets are divided.
I also still have Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Detroit available on both surviving entries. Those three teams accounted for 54.5% of the original Splash field’s Week 1 selections. That gives me different future options from many survivors, although an unused team only becomes valuable when its schedule supplies a worthwhile opportunity.
My Week 2 Shortlist Starts with Win Probability
Survivor requires an outright win. I use moneylines and their implied probabilities to compare candidates; a team’s ability to cover the spread is a different question.
| Team | Opponent | Current spread | Approximate win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | Home vs. Dolphins | -13.5 | 87% |
| Buccaneers | Home vs. Browns | -8.5 | 78% |
| Ravens | Home vs. Saints | -7.5 to -8.5 | 77% |
September 16 snapshot from the CLEATZ NFL lines board. Probabilities are the board’s rounded sportsbook estimates after removing the bookmaker margin, not a separate CLEATZ prediction model. Prices can change.
San Francisco leads my list. Tampa Bay is my preferred second team, with Baltimore close behind. I am not reaching for a marginal favorite just to make the selections look different.
Two entries on the 49ers or split with Tampa Bay?
Using 87% and 78% as approximate advancement probabilities produces this comparison:
| Approach | Both advance | At least one advances | Both eliminated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers on both entries | 87.0% | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| 49ers on one, Buccaneers on one | 67.9% | 97.1% | 2.9% |
Illustrative calculations using the market estimates above and assuming independent game outcomes. Ties are not separately modeled; these are approximations, not guarantees or a full contest simulation.
Splitting buys protection against a complete wipeout. It also reduces the chance of advancing both tickets. Expected surviving entries decline from 1.74 to 1.65.
I am comfortable considering that tradeoff with two entries left. Someone prioritizing the greatest chance of advancing both could reasonably choose the 49ers twice. Neither approach, by itself, proves a higher expected final payout.
The Chargers loss also does not create an obligation to “win back” an entry with a clever Week 2 pick. That ticket is gone. My job is to make good decisions with the two that remain.
Splash’s Double-pick Weeks Change the Planning
The Splash contest page lists six double-pick weeks: Week 9 and Weeks 12–16. Both selections must win, and teams cannot be reused.
That schedule is a reason to plan beyond the next Sunday. I need enough usable teams to get through stretches requiring two winners, not just a collection of famous teams I have promised myself I will save.
For each entry, I want to identify the difficult weeks first, pencil in a preferred option and a backup, and then revisit those plans as injuries and team quality become clearer. A future selection should earn its place on the calendar through a specific matchup.
I also want to check whether I am saving the same team for two different weeks. A spreadsheet can make a season look beautifully manageable until one team is doing three jobs.
Splitting this week would leave different teams available on my two entries. That flexibility is useful, but it does not erase the immediate risk of choosing a less likely winner.
How I use Public Betting Data for Survivor
The CLEATZ NFL public betting board helps me follow ticket shares, money shares and changes in sentiment. It does not report survivor ownership.
A team attracting 90% of moneyline tickets in its game has not necessarily attracted 90% of survivor selections across the entire slate. Those percentages have different denominators and describe different decisions.
I want contest-specific ownership projections when evaluating a popular pick. If those are unavailable, I will acknowledge the uncertainty rather than manufacture a precise number.
I also will not treat a gap between tickets and money as proof of informed betting. It is something to investigate alongside the NFL odds movers, not an automatic instruction to fade a team.
Circa Survivor: What Week 1 Changes
Circa’s Week 1 recap tells an even harsher Chargers story: 7,585 entries, or 30.3% of the starting field, went out on Los Angeles. Jacksonville advanced 8,127 entries, Pittsburgh 4,013 and Detroit 1,771.
The result: 16,978 entries survived to Week 2. Circa’s graphic lists an implied value of $1,473 per remaining entry. That figure is an equal-share prize-pool benchmark, not a guaranteed cash-out price or a personalized valuation of any ticket. Circa’s official contest page
Those counts matter because survivors carry different restrictions forward. A Jacksonville survivor cannot use Jacksonville again. Someone who advanced with Pittsburgh has a different set of options. Week 2 ownership must be evaluated among the entries still alive, not all the entries that started.
For Circa players, I would focus on three decisions.
1. Reserve real options for the holiday legs
Circa has up to 20 selections, including separate Thanksgiving and Christmas legs. The 2026 rules define Thanksgiving as November 25–27 and Christmas as December 24–25.
The eligible teams are:
| Special leg | Teams listed in Circa’s rules |
|---|---|
| Thanksgiving | Packers, Rams, Bears, Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, Broncos, Steelers |
| Christmas | Texans, Eagles, Packers, Bears, Bills, Broncos, Rams, Seahawks |
San Francisco, Tampa Bay and Baltimore are absent from both lists. Using one this week therefore preserves the listed holiday teams. That is one reason my Week 2 shortlist is worth examining for Circa, too. Official 2026 Circa rules
I would earmark more than one viable option for each holiday. Injuries can ruin a plan built around a single team, and a team appearing in both holiday groups still cannot be used twice.
2. Demand a reason to oppose the popular pick
With a large field, being on a different winner when a heavily selected favorite loses can be extremely valuable. But picking against the crowd also has a cost if the alternative is less likely to win.
I would compare three things together: this week’s win probability, projected ownership among surviving entries, and the specific future matchups I sacrifice by using that team now.
Low ownership alone is not enough. I want a credible alternative and a clear explanation of what I gain by taking the extra risk. With multiple entries, I would consider both each ticket’s prospects and how dependent my whole group is on the same result.
3. Treat submission as part of the strategy
Circa’s ordinary deadline is Saturday at 4 p.m. Pacific, or kickoff of the selected game if earlier. The rules do not allow changes after submission. I would verify every entry and keep the official confirmation, especially when working through a proxy. Circa contest information and official rules
Do the injury and weather checks before submitting. A Sunday update cannot rescue a selection that became final on Saturday.
What I will check before making my Survivor picks
My working allocation remains Entry 1 on San Francisco and Entry 3 on Tampa Bay. Before submitting, I will revisit the current moneylines, the NFL injury report, the NFL weather report and any credible Splash ownership projections.
I will also check both entries against the double-pick weeks. If that review exposes a better route, the preliminary plan can change.
I started with three chances. I still have two. The goal now is to give those tickets a thoughtful path forward—without pretending any Sunday comes with a receipt for next week.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ and has worked in the online sports betting industry since 2012. At CLEATZ, he focuses on public betting data, sportsbook line movement, prediction markets and data-driven sports betting tools.
