Welcome to today’s MLB best bets for Wednesday, May 20 — your daily roundup of the top home run props, pitcher strikeout picks, NRFI plays, and sharp money signals from across the 15-game slate. Heads up: this is a day-game-heavy slate, with marquee matchups like Reds/Phillies (1:05 PM ET), Orioles/Rays (1:10 PM), and Twins/Astros (1:40 PM) all going off in the afternoon — so lock in early.
The biggest story today is a weather fade at Yankee Stadium. Aaron Judge (32%) and Ben Rice (28.1%) sit high on the HR% board against Trey Yesavage, but the wind is blowing in hard at 15 mph and there’s a 100% rain chance at first pitch — the park HR rating has flipped to -15.1%. That’s the opposite of Monday’s wind-out conditions. Today’s cleaner power play is Kyle Schwarber at 38.2% in a 1:05 day game at Citizens Bank Park vs Andrew Abbott.
Below you’ll find today’s top plays across all categories, weather callouts (including the Yankee Stadium rain risk), sharp money signals, and a featured 4-leg parlay built around the day slate. Confirm via today’s MLB lineups and the MLB weather report before locking in — the rain risk matters today.
Today’s MLB Best Bets — Top Plays & Sharp Signals
| Player / Game | Type | Play | Odds | Cleatz Edge | Matchup |
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Slate Notes & Conditions
The Yankee Stadium fade is the highest-conviction read of the day. Two days ago the wind was blowing out and we leaned into the Yankees power. Tonight is the mirror image: wind blowing in at 15 mph NNW (“Strong Blowing In”), a -15.1% HR rating, and 100% rain at first pitch. Aaron Judge and Ben Rice both sit top-three in HR%, but the model’s raw hit rate doesn’t capture the conditions overlay — LHB power is down 21.2% in this wind. If you must play a Yankee, do it after lineups confirm and the radar clears. Our featured card avoids the game entirely.
Schwarber is the cleanest power play on the board. A 38.2% HR Score is elite, and unlike the Yankees spot, the Citizens Bank Park day game has no weather complications. Andrew Abbott (LHP) has surrendered power to left-handed bats, and Schwarber owns him historically — worth a peek at the BVP matchups tool for the head-to-head. He’s also the top Kalshi Edge at +4.2 pp, so the value lines up across both the book and the prediction market.
Day slate means publish-and-bet early. Six games go off before 4:15 PM ET today: Reds/Phillies (1:05), Orioles/Rays (1:10), Twins/Astros (1:40), Giants/Diamondbacks and Rockies/Rangers (3:40 / 3:10), and White Sox/Mariners (4:10). If you’re playing the afternoon card, you need lineups confirmed by roughly 12:30 PM ET. The lineups tool updates as cards drop.
No Strong NRFI today — manage expectations. The NRFI board shows zero Strong ratings and nine Leans, with the Brewers/Cubs game (Harrison vs Edward Cabrera, 68 score) as the best of the bunch. Cabrera’s 100% 2026 NRFI rate (9-0) is the carrying stat, but a Lean is a Lean — size accordingly versus a Strong-rated spot.
Most Likely board favors the Yankees ML despite the weather. Per the Most Likely tab, the Yankees are the highest-implied winner tonight at -179. The moneyline and the power props are different questions — rain suppresses scoring (which can actually help a favored team’s ML in a low-scoring game), but it kills HR props. Don’t conflate the two.
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Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
