Masters betting is evolving. While traditional sportsbooks remain the standard for casual fans, 2026 marks the first year where high-liquidity prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are providing a real-time “implied probability” that often challenges the bookies. By comparing these side-by-side, you can spot where the public’s bias (on names like Scottie or Rory) is creating price gaps.
Below, we’ve synthesized today’s data from Wednesday, April 22, 2026, to help you find the best value on the board.
2026 Masters Odds: DraftKings vs. Kalshi & Polymarket
Traditional books like FanDuel and DraftKings currently have Scottie Scheffler as the massive frontrunner. These prices reflect the liability sportsbooks hold from thousands of casual bets placed over the last six months.
Prediction markets operate differently. They are exchange-based, meaning the “odds” are determined by users buying and selling shares of a result. Currently, both Kalshi and Polymarket are signaling that the sportsbooks might be overvaluing the top tier. For example, while books have Scottie at a 16.7% win probability, traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are only pricing him at 14%.
| Player | DK odds | DK % | Kalshi % | Poly % | K/P gap | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +410 | 19.61% | 15%-4.61 | 16%-3.61 | 1.00% | P -3.61% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1100 | 8.33% | 8%-0.33 | 8%-0.33 | 0.00% | K -0.33% |
| Jon Rahm | +850 | 10.53% | 8%-2.53 | 7.4%-3.13 | 0.60% | K -2.53% |
| Rory McIlroy | +1025 | 8.89% | 7%-1.89 | 8%-0.89 | 1.00% | P -0.89% |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1750 | 5.41% | 6%+0.59 | 5.4%-0.01 | 0.60% | K +0.59% |
| Xander Schauffele | +1850 | 5.13% | 6%+0.87 | 5.2%+0.07 | 0.80% | K +0.87% |
| Cameron Young | +2400 | 4.00% | 4%+0.00 | 3.4%-0.60 | 0.60% | K +0.00% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2600 | 3.70% | 4%+0.30 | 3.9%+0.20 | 0.10% | K +0.30% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 | 3.85% | 4%+0.15 | 2.9%-0.95 | 1.10% | K +0.15% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3900 | 2.50% | 3%+0.50 | 2.6%+0.10 | 0.40% | K +0.50% |
| Justin Rose | +3600 | 2.70% | 3%+0.30 | 2.7%+0.00 | 0.30% | K +0.30% |
| Patrick Reed | +4500 | 2.17% | 3%+0.83 | 2%-0.17 | 1.00% | K +0.83% |
| Robert MacIntyre | +4000 | 2.44% | 3%+0.56 | 1.7%-0.74 | 1.30% | K +0.56% |
| Akshay Bhatia | +6600 | 1.49% | 2%+0.51 | 2%+0.51 | 0.00% | K +0.51% |
| Adam Scott | +6200 | 1.59% | 2%+0.41 | 0.8%-0.79 | 1.20% | K +0.41% |
| Brooks Koepka | +3800 | 2.56% | 2%-0.56 | 2.2%-0.36 | 0.20% | P -0.36% |
| Chris Gotterup | +4300 | 2.27% | 2%-0.27 | — | — | K -0.27% |
| Collin Morikawa | +3100 | 3.13% | 2%-1.13 | 3%-0.13 | 1.00% | P -0.13% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | +9400 | 1.05% | 2%+0.95 | — | — | K +0.95% |
| J.J. Spaun | +8800 | 1.12% | 2%+0.88 | — | — | K +0.88% |
| Jordan Spieth | +3800 | 2.56% | 2%-0.56 | 1.8%-0.76 | 0.20% | K -0.56% |
| Justin Thomas | +5500 | 1.79% | 2%+0.21 | 1.3%-0.49 | 0.70% | K +0.21% |
| Min Woo Lee | +5400 | 1.82% | 2%+0.18 | 1.3%-0.52 | 0.70% | K +0.18% |
| Patrick Cantlay | +5700 | 1.72% | 2%+0.28 | 1%-0.72 | 1.00% | K +0.28% |
| Russell Henley | +4200 | 2.33% | 2%-0.33 | 1.1%-1.23 | 0.90% | K -0.33% |
| Shane Lowry | +7000 | 1.41% | 2%+0.59 | 1.5%+0.09 | 0.50% | K +0.59% |
| Sepp Straka | +6700 | 1.47% | 2%+0.53 | 1.4%-0.07 | 0.60% | K +0.53% |
| Si Woo Kim | +4700 | 2.08% | 2%-0.08 | — | — | K -0.08% |
| Viktor Hovland | +4600 | 2.13% | 2%-0.13 | 1.8%-0.33 | 0.20% | K -0.13% |
| Cameron Smith | +10000 | 0.99% | — | 0.7%-0.29 | — | P -0.29% |
| Jason Day | +6900 | 1.43% | — | 0.8%-0.63 | — | P -0.63% |
| Joaquin Niemann | — | — | — | 0.8% | — | — |
| Keegan Bradley | +14000 | 0.71% | — | 0.6%-0.11 | — | P -0.11% |
| Maverick McNealy | +9800 | 1.01% | — | 0.8%-0.21 | — | P -0.21% |
| Max Homa | +11500 | 0.86% | — | 0.6%-0.26 | — | P -0.26% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +8400 | 1.18% | — | 0.6%-0.58 | — | P -0.58% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | +13000 | 0.76% | — | 0.6%-0.16 | — | P -0.16% |
| Sahith Theegala | — | — | — | 0.6% | — | — |
| Sam Burns | +7200 | 1.37% | — | 0.8%-0.57 | — | P -0.57% |
| Sung-Jae Im | +12000 | 0.83% | — | 0.7%-0.13 | — | P -0.13% |
| Thomas Detry | — | — | — | 0.6% | — | — |
| Tiger Woods | — | — | — | 1.3% | — | — |
| Tony Finau | — | — | — | 0.5% | — | — |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +6900 | 1.43% | — | 1.1%-0.33 | — | P -0.33% |
| Will Zalatoris | — | — | — | 0.5% | — | — |
| Wyndham Clark | +22500 | 0.44% | — | 0.7%+0.26 | — | P +0.26% |
| Aaron Rai | +19500 | 0.51% | — | 0.4%-0.11 | — | P -0.11% |
| Brian Harman | +20000 | 0.50% | — | 0.6%+0.10 | — | P +0.10% |
| Corey Conners | +8200 | 1.20% | — | 0.7%-0.50 | — | P -0.50% |
| Dustin Johnson | +24000 | 0.41% | — | 0.4%-0.01 | — | P -0.01% |
| Phil Mickelson | — | — | — | 0.5% | — | — |
| Sergio Garcia | +22500 | 0.44% | — | 0.5%+0.06 | — | P +0.06% |
| Tom Kim | — | — | — | 0.4% | — | — |
START WINNING!
Analyst Note: The gap on Rory McIlroy is massive. Books have him at 9.1%, but prediction markets are firm at 7%. This suggests the “Public” is propping up Rory’s sportsbook price, while the “Sharps” are selling him on the exchanges.Trade these probabilities on Kalshi here.
Augusta National Course Breakdown
Augusta National remains the ultimate test of “second-shot” golf. For the 2026 tournament, the biggest storyline is the newly lengthened 17th hole (Nandina), which now stretches to 450 yards. This change significantly alters the risk-reward profile of the closing stretch, favoring players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach from over 200 yards.
Winning at Augusta requires elite lag putting to navigate the treacherous sub-air-regulated bentgrass greens and the ability to scramble from tight, shaved lies. Historically, Par 5 scoring is the best indicator of a Sunday champion; if you can’t go -10 or better on the par 5s over four days, you aren’t wearing the Green Jacket.
Masters Betting Picks & Best Bets 2026
The “Hot Hand” Value: Cameron Young (+2500)
Cameron Young is coming off a massive win at the 2026 Players Championship just weeks ago. Despite his peak form, prediction markets like Polymarket are only pricing him at a 3.5% win probability (roughly +2700 equivalent). If you can find him at +2500 or longer at a sportsbook, you are getting a top-tier ball striker in the form of his life at a significant discount compared to the “Big Four.”
The Market Fade: Rory McIlroy (+1000)
The data is clear: Rory is the most “overpriced” player on the board. With a 2.1% discrepancy between sportsbook implied odds and prediction market reality, the smart play is to fade Rory or wait for his “No” contract on Kalshi to become even more profitable if he struggles on Thursday.
Masters Weather Forecast
Conditions at Augusta are looking ideal for a “fast and firm” tournament. Our PGA Tour Weather Tool indicates a dry week ahead, which will prioritize precision over raw power.
- Thursday, April 9: Partly sunny, High 70°F. Wind: 8 mph (Light).
- Friday, April 10: Mostly sunny, High 75°F. Wind: 8 mph (Consistent).
- Saturday, April 11: Partly sunny, High 77°F. Wind: 10 mph (Increasing).
- Sunday, April 12: Highs in the mid-70s. Fast greens expected.
Masters Odds FAQ
Scottie Scheffler is the consensus favorite at +500 (Books) and 14-15% (Prediction Markets).
Kalshi trades in “cents.” A 15¢ contract on Scottie Scheffler means the market gives him a 15% chance to win. If he wins, that contract pays out $1.00.
The tournament begins with the first honorary starters on Thursday, April 9, 2026
The 2026 cut will include the top 50 players and ties after 36 holes.
You can use traditional sportsbooks for fixed-odds betting, or use Kalshi and Polymarket to trade win probabilities like stocks, allowing you to “sell” a player’s chances if they start to struggle.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
