The Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium for a divisional AFC West matchup. This page compares live sportsbook odds against prices from prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and no-vig exchanges to identify potential edges.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds Today
- Spread
- Chiefs -2.5 7 of 13 books
- Total
- 43.5 4 of 13 books
- Moneyline
- Broncos +129 / Chiefs -133 best available
- Win probability
- Broncos 43% / Chiefs 57% median of 13 books, no vig
- Kalshi
- Broncos 44% / Chiefs 56%
- Polymarket
- Broncos 43% / Chiefs 57%
All figures read from one snapshot at page load, so they match the tables below.
Books and prediction markets agree here, inside 1.4 of a point once the vig is removed. The best bid and ask are 1¢ apart, a tight market at the displayed price.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds Comparison
8 of 14 books have Broncos at +2.5. The total is not settled — it ranges from 42.5 to 43.5, with 43.5 the consensus. Best Broncos moneyline: Pinnacle at +129.
Spread
| Book | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | -3 -105 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 +100 | -2.5 -120 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -103 | -2.5 -118 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -103 | -2.5 -118 |
| Bet365 | +2.5 +100 | -2.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | -3 -104 |
| Novig No Vig | +2.5 -106 | -2.5 -113 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 |
| Bally Bet | +3 -117 | -3 -104 |
| betPARX | +3 -117 | -3 -104 |
| Fliff | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | -2.5 -120 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -120 | -3 +107 |
Total
| Book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 42.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 43.5 -104 | 43.5 -118 |
| BetMGM | 42.5 -115 | 42.5 -105 |
| Caesars | — | — |
| Caesars | 43.5 -102 | 43.5 -118 |
| Bet365 | 42.5 -111 | 42.5 -111 |
| BetRivers | 43 -108 | 43 -113 |
| Novig No Vig | 43.5 -130 | 43.5 -150 |
| Fanatics | — | — |
| Bally Bet | 43 -108 | 43 -113 |
| betPARX | 43 -108 | 43 -113 |
| Fliff | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | 43.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 |
| Pinnacle | 43 -114 | 43 -102 |
Moneyline
| Book | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +124 | -148 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| Caesars | +126 | -148 |
| Caesars | +126 | -148 |
| Bet365 | +125 | -152 |
| BetRivers | +118 | -152 |
| Novig No Vig | +120 | -133 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| Bally Bet | +125 | -152 |
| betPARX | +125 | -152 |
| Fliff | -345 | -280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -145 |
| Pinnacle | +129 | -146 |
Best available price on each side is highlighted.
| Bo Nix | PP 222.5UD 226.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | PP 242.5UD 240.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | PP 1.5UD 1.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | PP 68.5UD 66.5 |
| Courtland Sutton | PP 43.5UD 43.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | PP 53.5UD 53.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | PP 14.5UD 14.5 |
| Noah Gray | PP 7.5UD 7.5 |
| Rashee Rice | PP 64.5UD 64.5 |
| Travis Kelce | PP 43.5UD 43.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | PP 21.5UD 21.5 |
| Xavier Worthy | PP 36.5UD 36.5 |
| Rashee Rice | PP 5.5UD 5.5 |
| Travis Kelce | PP 4.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | PP 1.5UD 1.5 |
| Bo Nix | DK +425 |
| Brashard Smith | DK +700 |
| Courtland Sutton | DK +205 |
| Cyrus Allen | DK +450 |
| Denver Broncos D/ST | DK +550 |
| Emari Demercado | DK +600 |
| Evan Engram | DK +400 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DK +130 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DK +220 |
| Kansas City Chiefs D/ST | DK +500 |
| Kenneth Walker III | DK -135 |
| Noah Gray | DK +500 |
Kalshi, Polymarket & Novig Odds: Broncos vs. Chiefs
Contract prices are live probabilities with no vig, so they compare directly to a devigged book line. Where the two differ, the gap shows where the markets disagree on this game's win probability.
| Market | DEN | KC | Spread | Traded | Open Int. | 24hChiefs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Up to $500 bonus → | 44% | 56% | 1¢ | 83.2k | 68k | -2 |
| Polymarket $20 free trade → | 43% | 57% | 2¢ | $706 | — | — |
| Novig Play $10, get $25 free → | 44% | 56% | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi trades in contracts; Polymarket reports in dollars. Novig is an exchange priced from its moneyline — the odds feed carries no order-book depth for it.
Where the price has moved
Every line is the implied probability of Chiefs winning, so up means the market likes Chiefs more. Since each contract opened, Kalshi has moved away from Chiefs 1 point, 57% to 56%; Polymarket has moved away from Chiefs 1 point, 58% to 57%. The dashed line is the sportsbook consensus with the vig removed.
Kalshi Polymarket Sportsbooks, no vig
Broncos and Chiefs Season Win Totals
Kalshi's over/under on each club's regular-season wins. It is the quickest read on how far apart these two teams are expected to finish.
| Team | O/U Wins | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DENBroncos | 9.5 | 55% | 45% |
| KCChiefs | 9.5 | 54% | 46% |
Win totals for all 32 NFL teams
Broncos and Chiefs Super Bowl Futures
Best available price across the licensed books, with 30-day movement and what the prediction markets make of it.
| Team | To WinBest Price | 30d | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENBroncos | +2000 FanDuel | — | 5% | 5% |
| KCChiefs | +1700 FanDuel | ▼ +1600 | 6% | 6% |
| Market | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 56% |
| Polymarket | 43% | 57% |
| Book | 43% | 57% |
| Novig | 44% | 56% |