NFL Rushing Yards Props Week 4: Live Lines & Best Odds

Compare NFL rushing yards props by player, matchup, line and sportsbook price. Review recent carries and results against the displayed line, then open a player row for available game logs and book comparisons. Use the Longest Rush tab to research a player’s longest run separately.

CLEATZ

NFL Rushing Yards Props

Player Props · lines Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET

Player stats: 2026 season · L5/L10: rolling regular-season games, including prior season when needed · Odds snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET

Rushing yards research leans

Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.

Week 4 · Upcoming · KC @ LV

Ashton Jeanty

Rushing YardsOver lean

Over 49.5 at -275

betmgmL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 15 → latest five: 21 carries/game. Change: +40%.

See reasoning

Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 49.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 49.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

5 quoted books: 49.5–60.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 15 → latest five: 21 carries/game. Change: +40%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 4 · Upcoming · IND @ WAS

Daniel Jones

Rushing YardsUnder lean

Under 11.5 at -102

novigL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5

Previous five: 3.8 → latest five: 1.8 carries/game. Change: -52.6%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 11.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 11.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 10.5–11.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.8 → latest five: 1.8 carries/game. Change: -52.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 4 · Upcoming · KC @ LV

Kirk Cousins

Rushing YardsUnder lean

Under 5.5 at -320

fanaticsL5 5/5 · L10 10/10 · L10 supports L5

Previous five: 1.4 → latest five: 3.2 carries/game. Change: +128.6%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 5.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

10/10 under 5.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

5 quoted books: 0.5–5.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1.4 → latest five: 3.2 carries/game. Change: +128.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for LV and ATL; team changes may affect usage.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

How leans are selected

Standard passing, rushing and receiving L5/L10 use the latest qualifying regular-season games across the selected and previous seasons, newest first. Prior-team games count. Longest-play markets retain the qualifying-game policy shown on their board. Passing history excludes appearances without a pass attempt. Five games and at least 4 of the latest 5 results beating the exact selected threshold qualify a historical Over or Under lean. Pushes are not hits. L10, line comparison and workload are additional context, not requirements or exclusions. L10 fewer than 5/10 is flagged as conflicting, 5–7/10 as mixed, and 8–10/10 as supporting. Samples of 6–9 games show the actual denominator; missing games are never filled. Within each upcoming week, ranking uses L5 hits with additional credit for a better line than the median of at least three quoted books (0.5 for counts; 2.5 for yards), or a 10% workload change in the same direction. Workload compares the latest five qualifying games with the preceding five across seasons and teams. All ten games need numeric workload values; missing values are never filled or skipped to create a different sample. Season and team changes are disclosed as context. With five to nine games, the latest-five average is shown when complete; no change is calculated. A zero preceding-five average has no percentage change. Unavailable or opposing workload does not block a historical lean. Both sides qualifying at different lines produces no directional lean. Feed must be refreshed within 20 minutes; quotes known to be older than two hours are excluded. Historical leans are not projected win probabilities or calculated betting edges. Passing TD totals use this same historical Over/Under screen. Anytime TD and First TD scorer markets are separate and receive no automatic directional lean. Unsupported markets receive no automatic directional lean.

Player & Matchup	Market	Over	Under	Carries L5	L5 vs line	Rush D	Pick'em	CLEATZ Lean
Week 4 · Upcoming
Derrick HenryBAL vs TEN · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	96.5	-106Novig	-111CZR	24.4	3-2Median: 126	#24 · 126.3 ypg	96.5 Underdog96.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 89.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Under 96.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 17 → latest five: 24.4 carries/game. Change: +43.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jahmyr GibbsDET @ CAR · Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM	94.5	-113Novig	-113Novig	20.2	2-3Median: 80	#32 · 193.3 ypg	94.5 Underdog96.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 89.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Under 97.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 13.4 → latest five: 20.2 carries/game. Change: +50.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jonathan TaylorIND @ WAS · Sun Oct 4, 9:30 AM	90.5	+104Novig	-110FAN	20.2	2-3Median: 70	#3 · 82 ypg	90.5 Underdog91.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 88.5 2/5 recent hits; 2/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 90.5 3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 19.8 → latest five: 20.2 carries/game. Change: +2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
James CookBUF vs NE · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	87.5	+106Novig	-113Novig	16.0	2-3Median: 74	#17 · 108.3 ypg	87.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 85.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 88.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 21 → latest five: 16 carries/game. Change: -23.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bijan RobinsonATL @ NO · Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM	87.5	+104Novig	-108Novig	20.6	2-3Median: 83	#27 · 128.7 ypg	87.5 PrizePicks87.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 85.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 87.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 18.4 → latest five: 20.6 carries/game. Change: +12%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kenneth Walker IIIKC @ LV · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	86.5	-113Novig	-113Novig	19.2	3-2Median: 97	#20 · 116.3 ypg	86.5 Underdog89.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 85.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 91.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 10.8 → latest five: 19.2 carries/game. Change: +77.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for KC and SEA; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Saquon BarkleyPHI vs LA · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	78.5	-111DK	-113CZR	14.8	3-2Median: 82	#11 · 101.3 ypg	76.5 Underdog78.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 74.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 78.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 18.2 → latest five: 14.8 carries/game. Change: -18.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jaylen WarrenPIT @ CLE · Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM	75.5	-110DK	-111Novig	12.8	1-4Median: 64	#23 · 120.3 ypg	73.5 PrizePicks75.5 Underdog	Under lean75.5 (-111) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 75.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 75.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 73.5–75.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 12.4 → latest five: 12.8 carries/game. Change: +3.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Aaron JonesMIN vs MIA · Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM	67.5	-110CZR	-113Novig	18.2	2-3Median: 58	#12 · 104.3 ypg	64.5 PrizePicks67.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 65.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 67.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 11.4 → latest five: 18.2 carries/game. Change: +59.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
D'Andre SwiftCHI vs NYJ · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	66.5	-104Novig	-110DK	14.6	2-3Median: 54	#7 · 87.3 ypg	66.5 Underdog66.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 65.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 67.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 14 → latest five: 14.6 carries/game. Change: +4.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Chuba HubbardCAR vs DET · Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM	66.5	-113Novig	-104Novig	10.0	1-4Median: 49	#22 · 117.3 ypg	66.5 Underdog66.5 PrizePicks	Under lean66.5 (-104) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 66.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 66.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 65.5–66.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 7.6 → latest five: 10 carries/game. Change: +31.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Christian McCaffreySF vs DEN · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	65.5	-110DK	-110FAN	13.2	3-2Median: 68	#30 · 143.7 ypg	65.5 Underdog65.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 49.5 3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 65.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 20 → latest five: 13.2 carries/game. Change: -34%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jeremiyah LoveARI @ NYG · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	64.5	-114FD	-104Novig	13.7in line with season	1-2Median: 41	#13 · 104.3 ypg	64.5 PrizePicks64.5 Underdog	Insufficient history3/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 3 qualifying results; five are required. Last 3 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Chase BrownCIN vs JAX · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	64.5	+106Novig	-111DK	16.8	3-2Median: 72	#8 · 91.3 ypg	64.5 Underdog65.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 64.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 66.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 14.2 → latest five: 16.8 carries/game. Change: +18.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Cameron SkatteboNYG vs ARI · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	62.5	-114FD	-114FD	13.8	1-4Median: 60	#26 · 127.7 ypg	62.5 Underdog62.5 PrizePicks	Under lean63.5 (-112) · draftkingsL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 63.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 under 63.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 60.5–63.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 16 → latest five: 13.8 carries/game. Change: -13.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bucky IrvingTB vs GB · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	60.5	-114PIN	+100FAN	15.0	2-3Median: 46	#28 · 138.7 ypg	58.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 60.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 62.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 16.4 → latest five: 15 carries/game. Change: -8.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Javonte WilliamsDAL @ HOU · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	60.5	-114CZR	-109DK	13.0	1-4Median: 41	#5 · 86.7 ypg	59.5 Underdog60.5 PrizePicks	Under lean60.5 (-109) · draftkingsL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 60.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 60.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 56.5–60.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 18.2 → latest five: 13 carries/game. Change: -28.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Ashton JeantyLV vs KC · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	60.5	-106Novig	-114Novig	21.0	2-3Median: 60	#10 · 99.7 ypg	60.5 Underdog60.5 PrizePicks	Over lean49.5 (-275) · betmgmL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 49.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 over 49.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 49.5–60.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 15 → latest five: 21 carries/game. Change: +40%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
J.K. DobbinsDEN @ SF · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	59.5	-108Novig	+104Novig	13.6	2-3Median: 49	#15 · 105.7 ypg	59.5 Underdog60.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 49.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 60.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 15.8 → latest five: 13.6 carries/game. Change: -13.9%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jacory MerrittWAS vs IND · Sun Oct 4, 9:30 AM	56.5	-115HRB	-113CZR	14.2	2-3Median: 43	#29 · 141.3 ypg	54.5 PrizePicks57.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 54.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 57.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 9.2 → latest five: 14.2 carries/game. Change: +54.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Quinshon JudkinsCLE vs PIT · Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM	55.5	-111Novig	+102Novig	12.4	1-4Median: 22	#18 · 113 ypg	55.5 Underdog55.5 PrizePicks	Under lean55.5 (+102) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 55.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 under 55.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 54.5–55.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 18.4 → latest five: 12.4 carries/game. Change: -32.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Braelon AllenNYJ @ CHI · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	55.5	-105FAN	-114PIN	5.8	0-5Median: 26	#21 · 117 ypg	55.5 PrizePicks	Under lean56.5 (-117) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 5/5 · Available 7/7
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 56.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/7 under 56.5; 0 pushes. 7 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 55.5–56.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 5.8 carries/game. 7/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 7 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kyren WilliamsLA @ PHI · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	55.5	-114FD	-105FAN	12.6	4-1Median: 85	#25 · 127.3 ypg	55.5 Underdog56.5 PrizePicks	Over lean49.5 (-210) · betmgmL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 49.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 49.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 49.5–57.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 15.2 → latest five: 12.6 carries/game. Change: -17.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bhayshul TutenJAX @ CIN · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	55.5	+100Novig	-104Novig	9.8	3-2Median: 65	#9 · 95.7 ypg	55.5 Underdog55.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 49.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side. Under 55.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 7.2 → latest five: 9.8 carries/game. Change: +36.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Travis Etienne JrNO vs ATL · Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM	52.5	—	—	12.2	2-3Median: 46	#1 · 47.7 ypg	—	No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available
No clear lean · Research notes Historical workload Previous five: 15 → latest five: 12.2 carries/game. Change: -18.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NO and JAX; team changes may affect usage. No priced sportsbook lines available. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tony PollardTEN @ BAL · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	47.5	+108Novig	-113Novig	14.0	4-1Median: 64	#14 · 105 ypg	47.5 Underdog45.5 PrizePicks	Over lean45.5 (-125) · fanaticsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 45.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 45.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 45.5–47.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 16.2 → latest five: 14 carries/game. Change: -13.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Omarion HamptonLAC @ SEA · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	45.5	-105CZR	-109DK	16.0	3-2Median: 56	#6 · 87 ypg	45.5 Underdog45.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 45.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 47.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 14.2 → latest five: 16 carries/game. Change: +12.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
David MontgomeryHOU vs DAL · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	44.5	-113Novig	-102Novig	11.0	1-4Median: 33	#31 · 179.7 ypg	44.5 Underdog44.5 PrizePicks	Under lean45.5 (-109) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 45.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 45.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 44.5–45.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 6 → latest five: 11 carries/game. Change: +83.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for HOU and DET; team changes may affect usage. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Blake CorumLA @ PHI · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	40.5	-114FD	-110HRB	9.4	3-2Median: 54	#25 · 127.3 ypg	40.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 39.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 41.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 10.2 → latest five: 9.4 carries/game. Change: -7.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jadarian PriceSEA vs LAC · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	40.5	-111DK	+108Novig	9.3in line with season	2-1Median: 52	#19 · 116.3 ypg	40.5 Underdog40.5 PrizePicks	Insufficient history3/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 3 qualifying results; five are required. Last 3 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Emanuel WilsonSEA vs LAC · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	40.5	-105FAN	-115DK	10.6	2-3Median: 16	#19 · 116.3 ypg	—	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 38.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 40.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 10.2 → latest five: 10.6 carries/game. Change: +3.9%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for SEA and GB; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
TreVeyon HendersonNE @ BUF · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	39.5	-114FD	-102Novig	12.2	3-2Median: 53	#16 · 107 ypg	42.5 PrizePicks39.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 38.5 3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 41.5 2/5 recent hits; 2/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 15.2 → latest five: 12.2 carries/game. Change: -19.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kyle MonangaiCHI vs NYJ · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	38.5	-113Novig	-110DK	8.8	2-3Median: 38	#7 · 87.3 ypg	38.5 Underdog38.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 35.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 38.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 13.6 → latest five: 8.8 carries/game. Change: -35.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Alvin KamaraNO vs ATL · Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM	38.5	-105CZR	-115HRB	9.8	1-4Median: 15	#1 · 47.7 ypg	38.5 Underdog38.5 PrizePicks	Under lean40.5 (-122) · pinnacleHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 40.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 40.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 36.5–40.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 10 → latest five: 9.8 carries/game. Change: -2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Joquavious MarksHOU vs DAL · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	35.5	-106Novig	-114FD	—	—	#31 · 179.7 ypg	32.5 PrizePicks35.5 Underdog	Insufficient history0/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 0 qualifying results; five are required. Last 0 qualifying regular-season games. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kameron JohnsonTB vs GB · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	34.5	—	—	0.0	0-5Median: 0	#28 · 138.7 ypg	—	No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available
No clear lean · Research notes Historical workload Previous five: 0 → latest five: 0 carries/game. Percentage change is undefined because the previous-five average is zero. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. No priced sportsbook lines available. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Rhamondre StevensonNE @ BUF · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	32.5	-114FD	-108Novig	9.2	4-1Median: 47	#16 · 107 ypg	32.5 Underdog31.5 PrizePicks	Over lean30.5 (-115) · betmgmHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 30.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 30.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 30.5–32.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 9.2 → latest five: 9.2 carries/game. Change: 0%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Lamar JacksonBAL vs TEN · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	31.5	-113Novig	-110CZR	4.6	3-2Median: 34	#24 · 126.3 ypg	33.5 PrizePicks31.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 29.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 33.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 5.2 → latest five: 4.6 carries/game. Change: -11.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kaleb JohnsonGB @ TB · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	31.5	+100Novig	-104Novig	3.2	1-4Median: 4	#2 · 76 ypg	31.5 PrizePicks31.5 Underdog	Under lean31.5 (-104) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 9/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 31.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 9/10 under 31.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 29.5–31.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 3.2 → latest five: 3.2 carries/game. Change: 0%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for GB and PIT; team changes may affect usage. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Josh AllenBUF vs NE · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	31.5	-110DK	-106Novig	8.4	1-4Median: 23	#17 · 108.3 ypg	31.5 PrizePicks31.5 Underdog	Under lean31.5 (-106) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 31.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 31.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 30.5–31.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 7.8 → latest five: 8.4 carries/game. Change: +7.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Brian RobinsonATL @ NO · Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM	31.5	+111Novig	-114FD	7.2	2-3Median: 31	#27 · 128.7 ypg	31.5 PrizePicks31.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 24.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 32.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 7.4 → latest five: 7.2 carries/game. Change: -2.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for ATL and SF; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Ollie GordonMIA @ MIN · Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM	30.5	-105FAN	+109Novig	6.0	1-4Median: 7	#4 · 85.7 ypg	29.5 PrizePicks29.5 Underdog	Under lean30.5 (+109) · novigHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 30.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 30.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 29.5–30.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 4 → latest five: 6 carries/game. Change: +50%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Deshaun WatsonCLE vs PIT · Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM	29.5	+100Novig	-104Novig	8.0in line with season	2-1Median: 38	#18 · 113 ypg	29.5 PrizePicks29.5 Underdog	Insufficient history3/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 3 qualifying results; five are required. Last 3 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Malik WillisMIA @ MIN · Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM	28.5	-114FD	+101PIN	7.2	4-1Median: 44	#4 · 85.7 ypg	28.5 PrizePicks28.5 Underdog	Over lean28.5 (-114) · fanduelHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · Available 4/7
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 28.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 4/7 over 28.5; 0 pushes. 7 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 4 quoted books: 28.5–30.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 7.2 carries/game. 7/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIA and GB; team changes may affect usage. Last 7 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Marcus MariotaWAS vs IND · Sun Oct 4, 9:30 AM	27.5	+104Novig	-112CZR	3.8	1-4Median: 7	#29 · 141.3 ypg	27.5 PrizePicks27.5 Underdog	Under lean27.5 (-112) · caesarsL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 27.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 27.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 25.5–27.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 5.8 → latest five: 3.8 carries/game. Change: -34.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Drake MayeNE @ BUF · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	26.5	-113Novig	-113Novig	4.6	2-3Median: 22	#16 · 107 ypg	26.5 PrizePicks26.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 25.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 27.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 5.8 → latest five: 4.6 carries/game. Change: -20.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jalen HurtsPHI vs LA · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	24.5	-111Novig	-108DK	5.2	3-2Median: 25	#11 · 101.3 ypg	24.5 PrizePicks24.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 24.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 25.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 6.4 → latest five: 5.2 carries/game. Change: -18.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kendre MillerNO vs ATL · Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM	24.5	-113DK	-111DK	6.4	2-3Median: 21	#1 · 47.7 ypg	24.5 PrizePicks25.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 19.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/9 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 25.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/9 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 6.4 carries/game. 9/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 9 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
MarShawn LloydGB @ TB · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	23.5	-104Novig	-102Novig	7.7in line with season	1-2Median: 20	#2 · 76 ypg	23.5 Underdog	Insufficient history3/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 3 qualifying results; five are required. Last 3 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Najee HarrisNYG vs ARI · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	23.5	-113Novig	-109DK	5.6	3-2Median: 28	#26 · 127.7 ypg	23.5 Underdog23.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 23.5 3/5 recent hits; 3/5 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 25.5 2/5 recent hits; 2/5 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 5.6 carries/game. 5/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYG and LAC; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 5 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jaylen WrightMIA @ MIN · Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM	23.5	-114FD	-113Novig	6.0	2-3Median: 23	#4 · 85.7 ypg	23.5 PrizePicks23.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 19.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Under 23.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 6.8 → latest five: 6 carries/game. Change: -11.8%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Isaiah DavisNYJ @ CHI · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	21.5	-112DK	-112DK	3.0	1-4Median: 8	#21 · 117 ypg	21.5 PrizePicks	Under lean21.5 (-112) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 21.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 21.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 20.5–21.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 2.2 → latest five: 3 carries/game. Change: +36.4%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Justin HerbertLAC @ SEA · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	21.5	-113Novig	-110DK	5.2	3-2Median: 29	#6 · 87 ypg	21.5 PrizePicks21.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 20.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 21.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 4.6 → latest five: 5.2 carries/game. Change: +13%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX @ CIN · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	20.5	-110FAN	-113Novig	10.2	4-1Median: 37	#9 · 95.7 ypg	20.5 Underdog19.5 PrizePicks	Over lean20.5 (-110) · fanaticsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 20.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 20.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 20.5–20.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 10.8 → latest five: 10.2 carries/game. Change: -5.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for JAX and WAS; team changes may affect usage. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kyler MurrayMIN vs MIA · Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM	19.5	-114FD	-113Novig	3.8	3-2Median: 25	#12 · 104.3 ypg	19.5 Underdog18.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 19.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/7 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 20.5 2/5 recent hits; 2/7 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 3.8 carries/game. 7/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for MIN and ARI; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 7 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tre TuckerLV vs KC · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	19.5	—	—	0.6	0-5Median: 0	#10 · 99.7 ypg	—	No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available
No clear lean · Research notes Historical workload Previous five: 0.4 → latest five: 0.6 carries/game. Change: +50%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. No priced sportsbook lines available. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler AllgeierARI @ NYG · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	18.5	-113Novig	-108DK	8.2	2-3Median: 16	#13 · 104.3 ypg	18.5 Underdog18.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 18.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 20.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 9.8 → latest five: 8.2 carries/game. Change: -16.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for ARI and ATL; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bo NixDEN @ SF · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	17.5	-113Novig	-110HRB	5.8	2-3Median: 7	#15 · 105.7 ypg	17.5 PrizePicks17.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 15.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 19.5 3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 3.8 → latest five: 5.8 carries/game. Change: +52.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Brock PurdySF vs DEN · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	16.5	-113Novig	-110HRB	3.6	5-0Median: 29	#30 · 143.7 ypg	16.5 PrizePicks16.5 Underdog	Over lean15.5 (-135) · fanaticsHistorical L5 trendL5 5/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 over 15.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 7/10 over 15.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 15.5–24.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 3.6 → latest five: 3.6 carries/game. Change: 0%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyler ShoughNO vs ATL · Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM	16.5	-102Novig	-108DK	4.2	3-2Median: 23	#1 · 47.7 ypg	17.5 PrizePicks16.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 15.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 16.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 6 → latest five: 4.2 carries/game. Change: -30%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyjae SpearsTEN @ BAL · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	15.5	-110FAN	-109DK	4.4	2-3Median: 12	#14 · 105 ypg	15.5 Underdog15.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 15.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 15.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 5.8 → latest five: 4.4 carries/game. Change: -24.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Patrick MahomesKC @ LV · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	15.5	-114FD	+113Novig	3.8	3-2Median: 17	#20 · 116.3 ypg	15.5 Underdog15.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 15.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 15.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 2.6 → latest five: 3.8 carries/game. Change: +46.2%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
RJ HarveyDEN @ SF · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	15.5	-114FD	-105FAN	8.2	4-1Median: 28	#15 · 105.7 ypg	15.5 Underdog	Over lean15.5 (-114) · fanduelHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 15.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 over 15.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 15.5–16.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 12.8 → latest five: 8.2 carries/game. Change: -35.9%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tyson BagentCHI vs NYJ · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	14.5	-102FD	-117DK	0.7	0-3Median: 0	#7 · 87.3 ypg	14.5 PrizePicks	Insufficient history3/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 3 qualifying results; five are required. Last 3 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Trevor LawrenceJAX @ CIN · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	14.5	-108Novig	-114FD	3.6	2-3Median: 11	#9 · 95.7 ypg	13.5 PrizePicks14.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 13.5 2/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 15.5 3/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 4.6 → latest five: 3.6 carries/game. Change: -21.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
AJ DillonCAR vs DET · Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM	13.5	-110DK	-113Novig	2.6	2-3Median: 2	#22 · 117.3 ypg	13.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 13.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/9 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 15.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/9 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 2.6 carries/game. 9/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for CAR and PHI; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 9 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Samaje PerineCIN vs JAX · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	12.5	-113Novig	-108DK	4.2	2-3Median: 9	#8 · 91.3 ypg	12.5 PrizePicks12.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 10.5 2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 12.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 8.4 → latest five: 4.2 carries/game. Change: -50%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Bryce YoungCAR vs DET · Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM	12.5	-107DK	-113Novig	2.8	1-4Median: 6	#22 · 117.3 ypg	13.5 PrizePicks12.5 Underdog	Under lean12.5 (-113) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 12.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 under 12.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 10.5–12.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 4.2 → latest five: 2.8 carries/game. Change: -33.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Daniel JonesIND @ WAS · Sun Oct 4, 9:30 AM	11.5	-111MGM	-102Novig	1.8	0-5Median: 4	#3 · 82 ypg	11.5 PrizePicks11.5 Underdog	Under lean11.5 (-102) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 11.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 11.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 10.5–11.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 3.8 → latest five: 1.8 carries/game. Change: -52.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Geno SmithNYJ @ CHI · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	11.5	-113Novig	-113Novig	2.8	2-3Median: 7	#21 · 117 ypg	11.5 PrizePicks11.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 10.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 11.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 2.6 → latest five: 2.8 carries/game. Change: +7.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYJ and LV; team changes may affect usage. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
C.J. StroudHOU vs DAL · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	11.5	-111MGM	-108DK	2.6	2-3Median: 10	#31 · 179.7 ypg	11.5 PrizePicks11.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 10.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 11.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 3 → latest five: 2.6 carries/game. Change: -13.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Tank BigsbyPHI vs LA · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	10.5	-114FD	-114FD	6.4	2-3Median: 7	#11 · 101.3 ypg	10.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 10.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 10.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 5.4 → latest five: 6.4 carries/game. Change: +18.5%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Cameron WardTEN @ BAL · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	9.5	-114FD	-102Novig	2.6	3-2Median: 10	#14 · 105 ypg	10.5 PrizePicks9.5 Underdog	Under lean11.5 (-115) · betmgmHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 11.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 11.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 8 quoted books: 9.5–11.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 2.6 carries/game. Change: -7.1%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Dak PrescottDAL @ HOU · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	9.5	-113Novig	+100Novig	3.2	4-1Median: 19	#5 · 86.7 ypg	9.5 PrizePicks9.5 Underdog	Over lean9.5 (-113) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 9.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 over 9.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 9.5–10.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 3.2 carries/game. Change: +14.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Sione VakiDET @ CAR · Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM	9.5	-113Novig	-110DK	1.8	1-4Median: 7	#32 · 193.3 ypg	9.5 PrizePicks	Under lean9.5 (-110) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 9/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 9.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 9/10 under 9.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 9.5–9.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 0.2 → latest five: 1.8 carries/game. Change: +800%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Joe BurrowCIN vs JAX · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	8.5	-113Novig	-111DK	2.6	3-2Median: 13	#8 · 91.3 ypg	8.5 PrizePicks8.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 8.5 3/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 10.5 2/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 1.4 → latest five: 2.6 carries/game. Change: +85.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Travis HomerPIT @ CLE · Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM	7.5	-113FD	-111DK	0.6	1-4Median: 0	#23 · 120.3 ypg	7.5 PrizePicks	Under lean7.5 (-111) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 9/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 7.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 9/10 under 7.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 7.5–7.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 0.2 → latest five: 0.6 carries/game. Change: +200%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for PIT and CHI; team changes may affect usage. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jacoby BrissettARI @ NYG · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	7.5	-112DK	-112DK	2.8	2-3Median: 7	#13 · 104.3 ypg	7.5 PrizePicks7.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 5.5 3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 7.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 2.8 carries/game. Change: 0%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Raheim SandersCLE vs PIT · Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM	5.5	-110MGM	-106Novig	3.4	3-2Median: 17	#18 · 113 ypg	5.5 PrizePicks5.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 5.5 3/5 recent hits; 4/7 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 5.5 2/5 recent hits; 3/7 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 3.4 carries/game. 7/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 7 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Seth McGowanIND @ WAS · Sun Oct 4, 9:30 AM	5.5	-114FD	-105FAN	2.0−1.0 vs season	1-2Median: 0	#3 · 82 ypg	5.5 PrizePicks	Insufficient history3/5 qualifying games
Insufficient history · Research notes Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Only 3 qualifying results; five are required. Last 3 qualifying regular-season games · 2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Malik WashingtonMIA @ MIN · Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM	5.5	+113Novig	-117DK	1.2	1-4Median: 4	#4 · 85.7 ypg	5.5 PrizePicks	Under lean5.5 (-117) · draftkingsHistorical L5 trendL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 5.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 5.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 4.5–5.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 0.2 → latest five: 1.2 carries/game. Change: +500%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Michael Penix Jr.ATL @ NO · Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM	5.5	-113Novig	-111DK	1.6	3-2Median: 6	#27 · 128.7 ypg	5.5 PrizePicks5.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 5.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 5.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 3 → latest five: 1.6 carries/game. Change: -46.7%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jordan LoveGB @ TB · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	4.5	-108Novig	-108Novig	1.4	2-3Median: 0	#2 · 76 ypg	4.5 PrizePicks4.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 4.5 2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Under 5.5 3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Historical workload Previous five: 3.2 → latest five: 1.4 carries/game. Change: -56.3%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jameis WinstonNYG vs ARI · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	4.5	-114FD	+102Novig	2.2	3-2Median: 10	#26 · 127.7 ypg	4.5 PrizePicks4.5 Underdog	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 4.5 3/5 recent hits; 3/5 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Under 6.5 2/5 recent hits; 2/5 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Latest five: 2.2 carries/game. 5/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 5 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Sam DarnoldSEA vs LAC · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	4.5	-114FD	-114FD	2.6	3-2Median: 5	#19 · 116.3 ypg	5.5 PrizePicks	No clear leanL5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides
No clear lean · Research notes Over 4.5 3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side. Under 4.5 2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend. Historical workload Previous five: 2 → latest five: 2.6 carries/game. Change: +30%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Matthew StaffordLA @ PHI · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	1.5	+108FD	-117CZR	1.8	2-3Median: 0	#25 · 127.3 ypg	0.5 PrizePicks	Under lean5.5 (-320) · fanaticsL5 trend + better available lineL5 4/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 under 5.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 8/10 under 5.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 0.5–5.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 0.8 → latest five: 1.8 carries/game. Change: +125%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Jared GoffDET @ CAR · Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM	1.5	-113Novig	-111DK	2.4	4-1Median: 2	#32 · 193.3 ypg	1.5 PrizePicks1.5 Underdog	Over lean1.5 (-113) · novigL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 5/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 5/10 over 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 6 quoted books: 1.5–5.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 0.8 → latest five: 2.4 carries/game. Change: +200%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Aaron RodgersPIT @ CLE · Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM	0.5	-119PIN	+110FD	1.8	4-1Median: 6	#23 · 120.3 ypg	1.5 PrizePicks	Over lean0.5 (-119) · pinnacleL5 trend + workload supportL5 4/5 · L10 6/10 · L10 is mixed
Over lean · Research notes Recent results 4/5 over 0.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 6/10 over 0.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 7 quoted books: 0.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage. Historical workload Previous five: 1.2 → latest five: 1.8 carries/game. Change: +50%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Josh DownsIND @ WAS · Sun Oct 4, 9:30 AM	0.5	—	—	0.2	0-5Median: 0	#3 · 82 ypg	—	No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available
No clear lean · Research notes Historical workload Previous five: 0.2 → latest five: 0.2 carries/game. Change: 0%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. No priced sportsbook lines available. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Zay FlowersBAL vs TEN · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	0.5	—	—	0.4	2-3Median: 0	#24 · 126.3 ypg	—	No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available
No clear lean · Research notes Historical workload Previous five: 0.8 → latest five: 0.4 carries/game. Change: -50%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. No priced sportsbook lines available. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Christian WatsonGB @ TB · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	0.5	—	—	0.0	0-5Median: 0	#2 · 76 ypg	—	No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available
No clear lean · Research notes Historical workload Previous five: 0.2 → latest five: 0 carries/game. Change: -100%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. No priced sportsbook lines available. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Matthew GoldenGB @ TB · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM	0.5	—	—	0.0	0-5Median: 0	#2 · 76 ypg	—	No clear leanNo priced sportsbook lines available
No clear lean · Research notes Historical workload Previous five: 0.4 → latest five: 0 carries/game. Change: -100%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. No priced sportsbook lines available. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details
Kirk CousinsLV vs KC · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM	0.5	-102FD	-120HRB	3.2	3-2Median: 1	#10 · 99.7 ypg	—	Under lean5.5 (-320) · fanaticsL5 trend + better available lineL5 5/5 · L10 10/10 · L10 supports L5
Under lean · Research notes Recent results 5/5 under 5.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits). Longer history 10/10 under 5.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility. Available lines 5 quoted books: 0.5–5.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line. Historical workload Previous five: 1.4 → latest five: 3.2 carries/game. Change: +128.6%. Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price. Before considering this prop Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included. Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for LV and ATL; team changes may affect usage. Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion. Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation. View player details

Market = the main line most of the books below actually post (never an average, so it is always a real posted number) · Best Over / Best Under = the best PRICE at that same line — a like-for-like comparison · ≠ means no book posts the market line, so that cell is the best available at a different threshold, which is a different bet rather than a better price · chip = how far that threshold sits from the market line, in words · Best Over / Best Under show the PRICE, with the book beneath; the threshold is the Market column unless a cell says otherwise · DFS = PrizePicks (PP) / Underdog projection, tap to play · Carries L5 = carries per game over his last five logged games, across seasons; a season-rate comparison appears only for a sample from that same season and team · L5 vs line = his record against today’s market line over those games, pushes shown separately, measured against today’s number rather than the one he actually faced · #rank = opponent rushing defense (1 = stingiest). Books: DK, FD, MGM, CZR, HRB, FAN, B365, PIN, CIR, Novig. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Longest Rush

Best available number, then best price at that number. Compare all quoted lines below.

Longest Rush research leans

Historical leans · At least 4/5 hits · Nearest remaining week first · Confirm the line and price.

Week 4 · Tonight · PIT @ CLE

Quinshon Judkins

Rushing LongestRushUnder lean

Under 12.5 at -106

caesarsL5 5/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 18.4 → latest five: 12.4 opportunities/game. Change: -32.6%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 12.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 12.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

5 quoted books: 12.5–12.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 18.4 → latest five: 12.4 opportunities/game. Change: -32.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 4 · Upcoming · IND @ WAS

Daniel Jones

Rushing LongestRushUnder lean

Under 8.5 at -111

draftkingsL5 5/5 · L10 8/10 · L10 supports L5

Previous five: 3.8 → latest five: 1.8 opportunities/game. Change: -52.6%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 8.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 8.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

3 quoted books: 8.5–8.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.8 → latest five: 1.8 opportunities/game. Change: -52.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Week 4 · Upcoming · IND @ WAS

Marcus Mariota

Rushing LongestRushUnder lean

Under 11.5 at -103

draftkingsL5 5/5 · L10 7/10 · L10 is mixed

Previous five: 5.8 → latest five: 3.8 opportunities/game. Change: -34.5%.

See reasoning

Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 11.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 11.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

2 quoted books: 11.5–11.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.8 → latest five: 3.8 opportunities/game. Change: -34.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 1, 8:50 AM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

How leans are selected

Hit rates for

Week 4 · Tonight

Aaron RodgersPIT @ CLE · Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET

Over lean

Over2.5 (-122)draftkings

Under2.5 (-105)hardrockbet

Over 2.5 yards

L5 4/5L10 6/10

Median longest: 5.5 yd · Carries/game: 1.7

10 qualifying games · 2025-11-02 to 2026-09-27

Longest-play chart, game log & books

NFL Rushing Yards Props Week 4: Live Lines & Best Odds

NFL Rushing Yards Props

Rushing yards research leans

Ashton Jeanty

Over lean · Research notes

Daniel Jones

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Kirk Cousins

Under lean · Research notes

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