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MLB Best Bets Today: The Laser Board Meets the HR Board & the Exit-Velo Bats Take Over — June 24, 2026
Wednesday, June 24, 2026 · 16-game slate · model leans, exit-velo pedigree & a priced parlay
Today’s headlines
Today the hook is the Laser HR leaderboard — every hitter who has scorched a 110+ mph homer this year — laid over the HR board. The bats with real exit-velo pedigree are the ones to trust, and the spots that line up are Kyle Schwarber (laser No. 2, neutral Nationals Park, Kalshi +8.6%), the league laser leader Yordan Alvarez in a roofed dome, and Jo Adell + Nick Kurtz, two laser bats sitting in the only two tailwind parks. The discipline spots: the wind has turned in at Coors and Target, so the Coors bats and even Ohtani are walking into headwinds. The one solid favorite is a Strong NRFI (Mariners–Pirates, DK −140), and the new bullpen-fatigue board flags five gassed pens.
The NRFI model closed June 23 at 10–3 (77%) — Leans went 10/12. After tuning the “Strong” filter, the model has now gone 17–6 over the past two days.
| Player / Play | Prop / Detail | Odds | Cleatz Edge | Air | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle SchwarberPHI @ WAS | HR To hit a HRLaser-board No. 2 (8 laser HRs, 424 ft long) and the day’s headline bat: Nationals Park reads neutral on wind and Kalshi flags +8.6% EV | +200 | 31% HR model | Neutral | Nationals Park |
| Willson ContrerasBOS @ COL | HR To hit a HRStrong model number, but Coors wind is blowing in 11 mph NNE — conditions fight the bat; stand aside | +285 | 29.7% HR model | Wind in | Coors Field |
| Shohei OhtaniLAD @ MIN | HR To hit a HRLaser-board No. 7 (6 laser HRs), but Target Field’s wind has turned in — the pedigree is real, the air is not; pass | +220 | 29.7% HR model | Wind in | Target Field |
| Colson MontgomeryCLE @ CWS | HR To hit a HRRate Field plays roughly neutral; best price B365 vs Tanner Bibee | +310 | 26.8% HR model | Neutral | Guaranteed Rate Field |
| Hunter GoodmanBOS @ COL | HR To hit a HROn the laser board (4 this year), but same Coors inbound wind — a stand-aside on conditions | +330 | 26.8% HR model | Wind in | Coors Field |
| Yordan AlvarezHOU @ TOR | HR To hit a HRThe league laser leader (9 laser HRs) in a roofed Rogers Centre — weather is off the table, so the exit-velo pedigree carries | +325 | 24.7% HR model | Roofed | Rogers Centre |
| Jake BauersMIL @ CIN | HR To hit a HRGreat American plays neutral today; juicy +425 at B365 vs Rhett Lowder | +425 | 24.7% HR model | Neutral | Great American Ball Park |
| Wilyer AbreuBOS @ COL | HR To hit a HRThird Coors bat into the inbound wind — fade the price, not the talent | +370 | 24.5% HR model | Wind in | Coors Field |
| Jo AdellBAL @ LAA | HR To hit a HRLaser-board No. 7 (6 laser HRs) at Angel Stadium — today’s top HR park (+6.1% tailwind) and the biggest Kalshi edge at +11.2% EV (Kalshi YES 17¢) | +488 | 18.9% book fair | Tailwind | Angel Stadium |
| Nick KurtzATH @ SFG | HR To hit a HRLaser-board No. 2 (8 laser HRs) at Oracle Park’s +5% tailwind; Kalshi tags +8.9% EV (Kalshi YES 19¢) | +426 | 20.7% book fair | Tailwind | Oracle Park |
| Mariners @ PiratesSEA @ PIT | NRFI No run, 1st inningWoo and Ashcraft are both 86.7% NRFI in 2026 — the board’s lone Strong, priced at DK -140 and a clean lean | -140 | Strong · 68 score | Lean | PNC Park |
| Mets run lineCHC @ NYM | PUBLIC NY Mets +1.5100% of the most-bet money is on the Mets +1.5; the Citi Field wind is blowing in, which holds scoring and aligns with backing the dog on the spread | Public | 100% of bets | Aligned | Citi Field |
| Braves moneylineATL @ SD | PUBLIC Braves MLPublic is all-in on Atlanta, and the Padres own the most fatigued bullpen in the league — the fatigue board aligns with the Braves pulling away late | Public | 100% of bets | Aligned | Petco Park |
| Dodgers run lineLAD @ MIN | PUBLIC LA Dodgers -1.599% of bets on the Dodgers lay, but Target Field’s wind is blowing in — fewer runs makes a −1.5 tougher, so respect the public price with caution | Public | 99% of bets | Public | Target Field |
| O’s / Angels totalBAL @ LAA | PUBLIC Under 9.5 runs98% of bets on the under, yet Angel Stadium grades as today’s top HR park (+6.1% tailwind) — a clear conflict between the public under and the conditions; we stand aside | Public | 98% of bets | Conflict | Angel Stadium |
🔥 Exit-velo pedigree, cross-referenced
The Laser HR Tracker lists every hitter with a 110+ mph homer this season — Yordan Alvarez leads at 9, with Nick Kurtz and Kyle Schwarber tied at 8 and Shohei Ohtani at 6. Layering that over today’s HR board, the cleanest plays are the laser bats whose conditions cooperate: Schwarber (neutral Nationals Park), Alvarez (roofed Rogers Centre), and Adell + Kurtz in the two tailwind parks. The laser names walking into headwinds — Ohtani at Target, Goodman at Coors — are pedigree-strong but conditions-weak, so we fade those today.
🌀 Wind turns in at four parks
Inbound winds knock down homers at Coors (11 mph NNE), Target Field (10 NW), Citi Field (11 NW) and Petco (7 NW). That puts the Coors bats (Contreras, Goodman, Abreu) and Ohtani at Target on the wrong side of the air — model-vs-conditions conflicts we stand aside on.
🍃 Where power still lines up
The two tailwinds are Angel Stadium +6.1% (today’s top HR park — Jo Adell) and Oracle Park +5% (Nick Kurtz) — both home to laser-board bats with live Kalshi edges. No meaningful rain anywhere today; every outdoor park looks dry. Track late updates on the weather tool.
🧪 Five pens are running on fumes
The Bullpen Fatigue board flags five HIGH: Padres (390), Twins (352), Rangers (341), Nationals (323) and White Sox (301). Two tie straight into today’s reads: the Padres own the most-fatigued pen while the public hammers the Braves at Petco, and the Nationals pen is gassed behind Schwarber’s Phillies. It’s a late-game runs angle — a tired pen tends to leak in the back third, so it nudges totals up, not the first inning.
👥 Where the public is piling in
No sharp handle-vs-bets splits in today’s pack — instead the most-bet board shows the public stacked on five sides: Mets +1.5, Braves ML and Blue Jays −1.5 all at ~100%, plus Dodgers −1.5 (99%) and O’s/Angels Under 9.5 (98%). Heavy public money means you’re paying a premium, so we read these against conditions: the Braves side aligns with the gassed Padres pen, but the Under at Angel Stadium conflicts with the day’s top tailwind — that one we stand aside on.
Strong NRFI + the headline laser bat
2-LEG$51.43
Why two legs: today’s pack has no priced sharp favorites, so we anchor on the one solid chalk — the Strong NRFI. Safer: the NRFI on its own at −140 ($10 → $17.14). Aggressive swing: the HR Lottery below.
HR Lottery Ticket · Kalshi
3-LEG$1,236
Joint probability ~0.69% — entertainment, not investment advice. Two of the three legs sit in parks where today’s wind is blowing in.
Where to play today
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Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
