Live PGA Tour Leaderboard & Golf Win Probabilities

See how the prediction markets are pricing this week’s PGA Tour event side-by-side with Data Golf’s projection model. The leaderboard below pulls live win probabilities from Kalshi event contracts and Polymarket, alongside Data Golf’s pre-tournament model (which blends a baseline skill rating with course history and course fit) and opening Round-1 odds from bet365. It’s the same data the sharps use, in one place, without flipping between four tabs. If you want to see the ever-important weather forecast for the Tour Championship, we have that too.

This tool auto-detects whether a tournament is in progress or upcoming. During play, you’ll see live positions, scores, win probability, and current market prices refreshed every minute. Between events, the table flips to pre-tournament mode with make-cut, top-20, top-10, top-5, and win probabilities for the full field.

Baycurrent Classic
Round 1
Live
Updated 3m ago·Refreshes every 60 seconds
Model vs. market
Biggest model edge
Kristoffer Ventura
Model 3.0%Market 1.9%
+1.1 pts
Data Golf rates this player well above the cheapest market price.
Largest market premium
Jacob Bridgeman
Model 20%Market 21%
−1.3 pts
The market is pricing this player above what the model supports.
Markets disagree
Kristoffer Ventura
Kalshi 2.9%Poly 1.9%
+1.0 pts apart
The two exchanges are pricing the same outcome differently.
PosPlayerScoreThruTodayWinKalshiPolyEdgeOpen Rd. 1 Odds
1Jacob Bridgeman-8F-820%22%21%−1.3 pts+320
2Jordan Smith-7F-77.9%7.5%7.3%+0.6 pts+1100
T3Max Homa-6F-65.4%5.1%4.5%+0.9 pts+1400
T3Mac Meissner-6F-63.8%3.7%3.5%+0.4 pts+2000
T3Ricky Castillo-6F-63.3%3.7%3.3%+0.1 pts+2000
T3Pierceson Coody-6F-63.2%3.4%3.2%0.0 pts+2200
T7Michael Thorbjornsen-5F-55.0%5.6%5.1%−0.1 pts+1400
T7Keith Mitchell-5F-53.2%3.2%2.9%+0.3 pts+2000
T7Kristoffer Ventura-5F-53.0%2.9%1.9%+1.1 pts+2500
T7David Lipsky-5F-50.9%1.0%1.1%−0.1 pts+7500
T7Andrew Putnam-5F-50.8%1.2%1.0%−0.2 pts+6600
T12Collin Morikawa-4F-45.5%5.8%5.9%−0.3 pts+1200
T12Hideki Matsuyama-4F-45.2%5.1%5.1%+0.1 pts+1400
T12Min Woo Lee-4F-44.4%4.0%4.1%+0.4 pts+1800
T12Ryo Hisatsune-4F-42.3%2.2%1.5%+0.8 pts+3300
T12Nico Echavarria-4F-40.7%1.3%1.2%−0.5 pts+6600
T17Ryan Gerard-3F-33.3%3.2%2.6%+0.7 pts+2200
T17Michael Brennan-3F-31.9%2.3%1.6%+0.3 pts+3500
T17Johnny Keefer-3F-31.8%2.1%1.5%+0.3 pts+4000
T17Michael Kim-3F-30.9%1.3%0.9%−0.1 pts+6000
T17Christiaan Bezuidenhout-3F-30.7%1.0%0.8%−0.1 pts+6600
T17John Parry-3F-30.4%0.6%0.9%−0.2 pts+11000
T17Hiroshi Iwata-3F-30.3%0.3%0.9%0.0 pts+27500
T17Denny McCarthy-3F-30.3%0.5%0.8%−0.2 pts+12500
T17Ren Yonezawa-3F-30.1%0.4%0.6%−0.3 pts+30000
T26Justin Thomas-2F-22.1%1.8%1.5%+0.6 pts+4500
T26Doug Ghim-2F-21.9%1.4%1.4%+0.5 pts+4500
T26Adam Scott-2F-21.6%1.4%1.2%+0.4 pts+5500
T26Sungjae Im-2F-21.1%1.3%1.2%−0.1 pts+6000
T26Keita Nakajima-2F-20.7%0.9%1.2%−0.2 pts+7500
T26Zach Bauchou-2F-20.6%0.8%0.9%−0.2 pts+9000
T26Brian Harman-2F-20.5%0.6%0.8%−0.1 pts+11000
T26Lee Hodges-2F-20.4%0.5%—−0.1 pts+15000
T26Stephan Jaeger-2F-20.3%0.4%1.1%−0.1 pts+17500
T26Kosuke Sunagawa-2F-2<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+60000
T36Xander Schauffele-1F-12.1%1.9%2.5%+0.2 pts+3300
T36Wyndham Clark-1F-11.5%1.8%1.2%+0.3 pts+5000
T36Matt Wallace-1F-10.5%0.6%0.8%−0.1 pts+11000
T36Max Greyserman-1F-10.3%0.5%1.0%−0.2 pts+15000
T36Kevin Roy-1F-10.2%0.3%0.6%−0.1 pts+27500
T36Beau Hossler-1F-10.2%0.3%0.5%−0.1 pts+25000
T36Matt McCarty-1F-10.1%0.4%0.9%−0.3 pts+30000
T36Takumi Kanaya-1F-10.1%0.3%0.8%−0.2 pts+30000
T36Chandler Phillips-1F-10.1%0.2%0.6%−0.1 pts+35000
T36Tomohiro Ishizaka-1F-1<0.1%0.1%—−0.1 pts+200000
T46Kurt KitayamaEFE0.4%0.2%0.7%+0.2 pts+20000
T46Alex SmalleyEFE0.2%0.1%0.7%+0.1 pts+35000
T46Ben KohlesEFE0.1%0.1%0.6%0.0 pts+40000
T46Billy HorschelEFE0.1%0.1%0.5%0.0 pts+50000
T46Tony FinauEFE0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+100000
T46Nick TaylorEFE<0.1%0.1%0.6%−0.1 pts+50000
T52Maverick McNealy+1F+10.2%0.1%0.6%+0.1 pts+27500
T52Keegan Bradley+1F+10.2%0.1%0.6%+0.1 pts+35000
T52Jackson Suber+1F+10.1%0.1%0.6%0.0 pts+60000
T52Jordan Spieth+1F+10.1%0.1%0.6%0.0 pts+50000
T52Taylor Moore+1F+1<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+100000
T52Yusaku Hosono+1F+1<0.1%0.3%0.5%−0.3 pts+200000
T52Taylor Pendrith+1F+1<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+150000
T52Sang-hee Lee+1F+1<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+250000
T52Koshin Nagasaki+1F+1<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+500000
T52Yoshinori Fujimoto+1F+1<0.1%0.1%0.6%−0.1 pts+500000
T62Davis Thompson+2F+20.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+100000
T62Rickie Fowler+2F+2<0.1%0.1%0.7%−0.1 pts+75000
T62Patrick Rodgers+2F+2<0.1%0.1%0.6%−0.1 pts+500000
T65Kevin Yu+3F+3<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+150000
T65Steven Fisk+3F+3<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+200000
T65Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen+3F+3<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+500000
T65Sahith Theegala+3F+3<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+500000
T65Aguri Iwasaki+3F+3<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+500000
T65Jinichiro Kozuma+3F+3<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+500000
71Aldrich Potgieter+6F+6<0.1%0.1%0.6%−0.1 pts+500000
72Tom Hoge+10F+10<0.1%0.1%0.5%−0.1 pts+500000
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At the Top

Jacob Bridgeman holds the lead after Round 1 of the Baycurrent Classic, carding an eight-under score to sit one stroke ahead of the field. Jordan Smith trails in solo second place at seven-under. A quartet of players shares third place at six-under: Max Homa, Mac Meissner, Ricky Castillo, and Pierceson Coody all finished the opening round within striking distance of the leader.

In Pursuit

Five players occupy the tie for seventh place at five-under par, creating a substantial contingent positioned just three shots back. Michael Thorbjornsen, Keith Mitchell, Kristoffer Ventura, David Lipsky, and Andrew Putnam all finished with matching scores. This group sits within realistic striking distance as the tournament progresses into subsequent rounds.

Round One Complete

Round 1 has concluded at the Baycurrent Classic with Jacob Bridgeman establishing a one-shot advantage at the top. The leaderboard shows tight clustering through the field, with multiple players bunched within three strokes of the lead. Collin Morikawa currently sits at twelve positions deep, four-under par as the field prepares to continue competition.

AI-generated from live data · refreshes every few minutes
Model probability via Data Golf·Kalshi YES live·Polymarket YES live·Open Rd. 1 Odds via bet365
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