Live PGA Tour Leaderboard & Golf Win Probabilities

See how the prediction markets are pricing this week’s PGA Tour event side-by-side with Data Golf’s projection model. The leaderboard below pulls live win probabilities from Kalshi event contracts and Polymarket, alongside Data Golf’s pre-tournament model (which blends a baseline skill rating with course history and course fit) and opening Round-1 odds from bet365. It’s the same data the sharps use, in one place, without flipping between four tabs. If you want to see the ever-important weather forecast for the Tour Championship, we have that too.

This tool auto-detects whether a tournament is in progress or upcoming. During play, you’ll see live positions, scores, win probability, and current market prices refreshed every minute. Between events, the table flips to pre-tournament mode with make-cut, top-20, top-10, top-5, and win probabilities for the full field.

TOUR Championship

East Lake Golf Club·Aug 27–30, 2026

Pre-Tournament

Updated 2m ago·Refreshes every 60 seconds

Model vs. market

Biggest model edge

Xander Schauffele

Model 8.3%Market 7.0%

+1.3 pts

Data Golf rates this player well above the cheapest market price.

Largest market premium

Scottie Scheffler

Model 18%Market 21%

−2.8 pts

The market is pricing this player above what the model supports.

Markets disagree

Ryan Fox

Kalshi 0.6%Poly 17%

+15.9 pts apart

The two exchanges are pricing the same outcome differently.

Player		Data Golf model · bet365 price				Market price		Model vs market
Pos	Player	Top 20	Top 10	Top 5	Win	Kalshi	Poly	Edge
1	Scottie Scheffler	93%-2500	72%-455	51%-159	18%+320	21%	27%	−2.8 pts
2	Rory McIlroy	83%-700	54%-200	33%+140	8.8%+750	8.8%	21%	0.0 pts
3	Xander Schauffele	84%-450	54%-141	32%+200	8.3%+1200	7.0%	21%	+1.3 pts
4	Ludvig Aberg	75%-460	43%-115	23%+250	4.8%+1600	4.6%	19%	+0.2 pts
5	Patrick Cantlay	77%-410	43%-115	23%+250	4.4%+1600	4.3%	—	+0.1 pts
6	Cameron Young	73%-410	40%+100	21%+280	4.1%+1800	4.4%	18%	−0.3 pts
7	Sam Burns	74%-450	40%+100	21%+280	4.0%+1800	4.7%	18%	−0.7 pts
8	Collin Morikawa	75%-330	41%+100	21%+280	4.0%+1800	4.2%	17%	−0.2 pts
9	Tommy Fleetwood	76%-410	42%+100	21%+280	3.9%+1800	4.1%	18%	−0.3 pts
10	Wyndham Clark	73%-420	38%-115	20%+250	3.9%+1600	5.0%	19%	−1.2 pts
11	Chris Gotterup	71%-340	37%+105	19%+300	3.5%+2000	3.8%	18%	−0.3 pts
12	Matt Fitzpatrick	75%-440	39%+105	19%+300	3.4%+2000	4.0%	18%	−0.6 pts
13	Viktor Hovland	73%-265	38%+125	19%+375	3.4%+2500	3.3%	17%	+0.1 pts
14	Si Woo Kim	74%-340	38%+105	18%+300	3.0%+2000	3.2%	18%	−0.2 pts
15	Hideki Matsuyama	72%-260	37%+115	18%+333	3.0%+2200	2.7%	17%	+0.3 pts
16	Russell Henley	69%-330	32%+115	15%+333	2.2%+2200	2.9%	17%	−0.7 pts
17	Ryan Gerard	64%-205	29%+180	13%+550	1.8%+4000	1.6%	17%	+0.2 pts
18	Adam Scott	63%-170	28%+188	12%+600	1.7%+4500	1.4%	17%	+0.3 pts
19	Robert MacIntyre	62%-184	27%+180	12%+550	1.7%+4000	1.6%	—	+0.1 pts
20	Justin Rose	59%-180	25%+180	11%+550	1.7%+4000	1.7%	17%	−0.1 pts
21	Tom Kim	62%-186	27%+188	11%+600	1.6%+4500	1.9%	17%	−0.3 pts
22	Min Woo Lee	59%-180	25%+225	10%+700	1.5%+6000	1.2%	17%	+0.3 pts
23	J.J. Spaun	59%-220	23%+160	9.4%+475	1.2%+3500	1.9%	17%	−0.7 pts
24	Alex Smalley	55%-164	21%+230	8.4%+800	1.2%+6000	1.3%	17%	−0.1 pts
25	Gary Woodland	54%-158	21%+180	8.2%+550	1.1%+4000	1.6%	—	−0.5 pts
26	Jacob Bridgeman	55%-196	21%+200	8.1%+650	1.0%+5000	1.4%	17%	−0.4 pts
27	Kristoffer Reitan	52%-146	20%+230	7.7%+800	1.0%+6000	1.0%	17%	−0.1 pts
28	Alex Fitzpatrick	51%-134	18%+280	6.8%+900	0.8%+8000	0.9%	17%	−0.1 pts
29	Akshay Bhatia	46%-118	15%+275	5.4%+900	0.6%+7500	0.8%	17%	−0.2 pts
30	Ryan Fox	41%-116	12%+300	4.0%+1000	0.4%+9000	0.6%	17%	−0.2 pts

Field size

Tee off

Aug 27

Final round

Aug 30

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The Setup

The TOUR Championship arrives at East Lake Golf Club from August 27 through August 30, drawing a 30-player field competing for the FedExCup finale. This event concludes the PGA Tour's regular season and represents the year's final opportunity for elite golfers to stake claims on the season's top honors.

Top Contenders

Scottie Scheffler enters as the player to watch, followed by Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele as primary challengers. Ludvig Aberg and Patrick Cantlay round out the group of names positioned highest in the field heading into the week. These five players shape the competitive landscape as the tournament begins.

Wider Field

Cameron Young, Sam Burns, and Collin Morikawa represent capable threats from beyond the immediate favorites. Tommy Fleetwood and Wyndham Clark also warrant attention as accomplished competitors in the 30-player group. The depth of the field suggests opportunities for multiple players to contend across the final round.

AI-generated from live data · refreshes every few minutes

CLEATZ STAFF

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