The Edge Finder grew a second leg this morning, and it changes how you shop MLB best bets today: Kalshi prices now sit next to Polymarket listings on every matched home-run market — 39 markets, 97 Kalshi listings, 181 on Polymarket — and the very first cross-shop produced the biggest edge the board has ever shown. Junior Caminero is 16¢ on Polymarket against a 22.0% book-fair number, a +37.2% EV. Below: the full 15-play board from the HR props, strikeout, and NRFI models, the Most-Bet consensus board, and a wind map that leans hard to the pitchers.
CLEATZ · MLB BEST BETS
MLB Best Bets Today: Polymarket Joins the Edge Finder
Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · 15 games · first pitch 1:05 PM ET
TODAY’S HEADLINES
- Polymarket joins the Edge Finder. 39 matched markets, 97 Kalshi + 181 Polymarket listings — and Poly prices Caminero at 16¢ vs a 22.0% book-fair, a +37.2% EV, the biggest edge this board has ever shown.
- A pitchers’ wind day. Fenway is the only real blow-out (+12.4%); Kauffman (10 mph NNE) and Coors (8 mph N) blow straight in, and every outdoor park is dry.
- Four strong NRFIs, all priced, three under roofs. The featured ticket stacks the two best with the board’s 98% Dodgers side.
- The public backs two plus-money dogs on one board — Tigers +104 (95%) and Cardinals +110 (91%), instances #4 and #5 of this month’s pattern.
+37.2%
Caminero EV — biggest edge ever
181
Polymarket listings now in the Edge Finder
4
Strong NRFIs (3 under roofs)
2
Plus-money public dogs on one board
| PLAYER / PLAY | PROP / DETAIL | ODDS | CLEATZ EDGE | AIR | VENUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Junior Caminero TB @ TOR | HR +37.2% Polymarket EV, the biggest edge the board has ever shown | +525 | 22.0% book (Poly 16c) | Roofed | Rogers Centre |
Cal Raleigh CIN @ SEA | HR +22.9% Polymarket EV under the Seattle roof | +355 | 27.0% book (Poly 22c) | Roofed | T-Mobile Park |
Shohei Ohtani LAD @ PHI | HR +14.8% Polymarket EV vs Wheeler | +270 | 31.0% book (Poly 27c) | Neutral | Citizens Bank Park |
James Wood WSH @ COL | HR +12.4% Poly EV, but Coors wind blowing IN 8mph, trap watch | +257 | 31.5% book (Poly 28c) | Wind in | Coors Field |
Yordan Alvarez MIA @ HOU | HR +13.1% Kalshi EV, roof game | +270 | 30.5% book (Kalshi 27c) | Roofed | Daikin Park |
Mike Trout STL @ LAA | HR +17.0% Polymarket EV vs the Cardinals | +426 | 22.2% book (Poly 19c) | Neutral | Angel Stadium |
Ketel Marte ATH @ AZ | HR +18.0% Kalshi EV, roof game | +456 | 21.2% book (Kalshi 18c) | Roofed | Chase Field |
Matt Olson SDP @ ATL | HR +16.5% Poly EV with the Truist slight tailwind | +426 | 22.1% book (Poly 19c) | Tailwind | Truist Park |
Gabriel Hughes WSH @ COL | K Lean, biggest K edge, and the Coors wind-in works with him | O4.5 | +1.59 K edge | Wind aids | Coors Field |
Bailey Ober MIN @ CLE | K Lean, model 4.9 vs 3.5 line | O3.5 | +1.36 K edge | Model edge | Progressive Field |
Brady Singer CIN @ SEA | K Lean under, model 4.3 vs 5.5, roof game | U5.5 | -1.18 K edge (under) | Roofed | T-Mobile Park |
Alcantara vs Lambert MIA @ HOU | NRFI Alcantara 81% and Lambert 81.3% in 2026, dome game (lean) | -125 | 68 board score | Roofed | Daikin Park |
Jax vs Fisher TB @ TOR | NRFI Fisher is a perfect 6-0 with a 100% NRFI, dome game (lean) | -120 | 67 board score | Roofed | Rogers Centre |
Tigers ML DET @ CHC | PUBLIC Fourth plus-money public dog this month, at Wrigley | +104 | 95% most-bet consensus | Consensus | Wrigley Field |
Cardinals ML STL @ LAA | PUBLIC And a fifth, two plus-money dogs on one board | +110 | 91% most-bet consensus | Consensus | Angel Stadium |
Junior Caminero
TB @ TOR · Rogers Centre
+525
HRRoofedHR
+37.2% Polymarket EV, the biggest edge the board has ever shown
Cleatz edge
22.0% book (Poly 16c)
Cal Raleigh
CIN @ SEA · T-Mobile Park
+355
HRRoofedHR
+22.9% Polymarket EV under the Seattle roof
Cleatz edge
27.0% book (Poly 22c)
Shohei Ohtani
LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park
+270
HRNeutralHR
+14.8% Polymarket EV vs Wheeler
Cleatz edge
31.0% book (Poly 27c)
James Wood
WSH @ COL · Coors Field
+257
HRWind inHR
+12.4% Poly EV, but Coors wind blowing IN 8mph, trap watch
Cleatz edge
31.5% book (Poly 28c)
Yordan Alvarez
MIA @ HOU · Daikin Park
+270
HRRoofedHR
+13.1% Kalshi EV, roof game
Cleatz edge
30.5% book (Kalshi 27c)
Mike Trout
STL @ LAA · Angel Stadium
+426
HRNeutralHR
+17.0% Polymarket EV vs the Cardinals
Cleatz edge
22.2% book (Poly 19c)
Ketel Marte
ATH @ AZ · Chase Field
+456
HRRoofedHR
+18.0% Kalshi EV, roof game
Cleatz edge
21.2% book (Kalshi 18c)
Matt Olson
SDP @ ATL · Truist Park
+426
HRTailwindHR
+16.5% Poly EV with the Truist slight tailwind
Cleatz edge
22.1% book (Poly 19c)
Gabriel Hughes
WSH @ COL · Coors Field
O4.5
KWind aidsStrikeouts
Lean, biggest K edge, and the Coors wind-in works with him
Cleatz edge
+1.59 K edge
Bailey Ober
MIN @ CLE · Progressive Field
O3.5
KModel edgeStrikeouts
Lean, model 4.9 vs 3.5 line
Cleatz edge
+1.36 K edge
Brady Singer
CIN @ SEA · T-Mobile Park
U5.5
KRoofedStrikeouts
Lean under, model 4.3 vs 5.5, roof game
Cleatz edge
-1.18 K edge (under)
Alcantara vs Lambert
MIA @ HOU · Daikin Park
-125
NRFIRoofedNRFI
Alcantara 81% and Lambert 81.3% in 2026, dome game (lean)
Cleatz edge
68 board score
Jax vs Fisher
TB @ TOR · Rogers Centre
-120
NRFIRoofedNRFI
Fisher is a perfect 6-0 with a 100% NRFI, dome game (lean)
Cleatz edge
67 board score
Tigers ML
DET @ CHC · Wrigley Field
+104
PUBLICConsensusMoneyline
Fourth plus-money public dog this month, at Wrigley
Cleatz edge
95% most-bet consensus
Cardinals ML
STL @ LAA · Angel Stadium
+110
PUBLICConsensusMoneyline
And a fifth, two plus-money dogs on one board
Cleatz edge
91% most-bet consensus
Conditions: the wind belongs to the pitchers
Fenway is the slate’s lone genuine blow-out at +12.4% (8 mph WSW), with slight tailwinds at Truist (+7.8%). The other side of the map is the story: Kauffman gets 10 mph NNE in and Coors gets 8 mph N straight in — which is exactly why Gabriel Hughes’ K over (model 6.1 vs 4.5) is the K board’s biggest edge, and why James Wood’s +12.4% Poly EV carries a trap watch. Every outdoor park is dry through the final out, with first-pitch rain chances low across the board — full park-by-park detail on the MLB weather page.
The money: consensus board, two plus-money dogs
No sharp-splits board today, so the money read is the Most-Bet consensus: Dodgers −120 at 98% is the slate’s heaviest side, with Nationals −144 (94%) and Red Sox −163 (86%) behind it. The eye-catchers are the dogs — Tigers +104 at 95% and Cardinals +110 at 91%, the fourth and fifth plus-money public dogs this month after STL +128, ATH +109, and DET +101. On the futures side, the Edge Finder’s partner columns do the shopping for you: Caminero at 16¢ and Raleigh at 22¢ on Polymarket vs 22.0% and 27.0% book-fair numbers.
Featured Parlay: The Dome Zero Double
3-LEG · +5051
Marlins / Astros NRFI
Alcantara (81% in 2026) vs Lambert (81.3%) · 68 board score · Daikin Park roof
2
Rays / Blue Jays NRFI
Jax (80%) vs Fisher, a perfect 6-0 with a 100% NRFI · 67 board score · Rogers Centre roof
3
Dodgers ML @ Phillies
The board’s heaviest side — 98% of most-bet tickets
PARLAY ODDS
+505
$10 returns $60.50
Slate read: two dome NRFIs from a four-strong board (both leans, both priced) plus the consensus side. Safer build: drop the Dodgers and run the two NRFIs alone at +230 ($10 returns $33.00). Estimated prices — verify at the window.
HR Lottery Ticket
3-LEG · +133481
Jorge Soler to hit a HR
Cardinals @ Angels · hitter park · 78° warm
2
Kazuma Okamoto to hit a HR
Rays @ Blue Jays · HR park (112) · friendly SP
3
Casey Schmitt to hit a HR
Giants @ Royals · 76° warm
PARLAY ODDS
+13348
$10 returns $1,345
Joint probability roughly 0.6% — entertainment stakes only.
CLEATZ MLB TOOLS
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Where to Play Today · partner offers
Odds and numbers were captured from the Cleatz boards at 12:39 PM ET on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 and will move throughout the day — always confirm the current price before you bet. NRFI plays are leans, not locks. This is analysis and entertainment, not financial advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
