The second Trump administration arrived with a promise of absolute loyalty and “unprecedented stability.” For a year, that narrative held, at least compared to the revolving door of 2017. But as we close out February 2026, the cracks aren’t just showing; they’re being traded in real-time.
On the prediction platform Kalshi, the “Who will leave Trump’s Cabinet next?” market has become a high-stakes proxy for DC’s most toxic political battles. With over $1.7 million in volume, the smart money is betting that the “loyalist shield” is finally about to break.
The Frontrunners: Scandals and Stakes
The market currently identifies two clear favorites for the exit, though for very different reasons.
1. Kristi Noem (DHS) | Market Chance: 22%
Secretary Noem is currently sitting on the hot seat with the highest probability of departure. While she has been the face of the administration’s aggressive “Making America Safe Again” initiative, her tenure has been rocked by the recent deaths of two U.S. citizens during federal enforcement actions in Minnesota.
- The Catalyst: Bipartisan calls for her impeachment are growing louder.
- The Trend: Her “Yes” price has ticked up 2 points recently, reflecting a belief that the White House might need a sacrificial lamb to quiet the Minnesota fallout.
2. Howard Lutnick (Commerce) | Market Chance: 18%
If Noem is the “policy lightning rod,” Lutnick is the “ethics headache.” The former Cantor Fitzgerald CEO is currently in a dogfight with Senator Ron Wyden over a $1.6 billion federal investment in USA Rare Earth, a deal that critics claim directly benefits Lutnick’s family firm.
- The Catalyst: Recent letters from the Senate Finance Committee have characterized his actions as a “long string of conflicts of interest.”
- The Trend: His volatility on the Kalshi chart (spiking as high as 30% in early February) suggests that every new ethics headline sends traders into a selling frenzy.
The Mid-Tier: Power Struggles and Policy Wars
Further down the board, we see names that were once considered “untouchable” now appearing in the double digits.
- Pam Bondi (AG) – 15%: Despite her role in dismantling DOJ fraud divisions and shielding the President from the ongoing Epstein file disclosures, Bondi is facing intense pressure over “politically motivated” prosecutions. If the administration decides to pivot its legal strategy, Bondi could be moved to a “special advisor” role, a soft exit that the market is starting to price in.
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Labor) – 12%: A favorite of the “quiet departure” theorists. While she lacks the explosive headlines of Noem or Lutnick, her “Yes” price has consistently hovered between 10-15%, often cited as the person most likely to “return to the private sector” without a public fight.
The “Longshot” Loyalists
Interestingly, the most controversial figures in the media often have the lowest departure odds on the market.
| Nominee | Market Chance | Why the low price? |
| RFK Jr. | 2% | He remains a core part of the “Great American Recovery” branding. |
| Pete Hegseth | 5% | Despite defense budget brawls, he retains the President’s personal trust. |
| Marco Rubio | 1% | Currently pulling double duty as Secretary of State and NSC Advisor; he’s too essential to the current machine to lose. |
Stability is a Tradeable Asset
While the Brookings Institution notes that “A-Team” turnover is technically lower than in the first term (29% vs 35%), the Cabinet level has yet to see a single departure in over 13 months.
In DC, that kind of pressure doesn’t just dissipate, it explodes. Whether it’s Noem’s mounting impeachment threats or Lutnick’s rare-earth entanglements, the Kalshi market suggests the “Zero-Departure” streak is about to end.
The question for traders isn’t if someone leaves, but who gets the “You’re Fired” tweet first.
