Updated On September 28, 2026
The 2026 college football season is shaping up to be the most chaotic yet. With the 12-team playoff format now firmly established and the transfer portal having settled after the spring window, we turn to the gold standard of analytics: Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings.
Whether you’re looking for college football power ratings to inform your Heisman bets or just want to see how your team stacks up against the latest SP+ rankings, this is your definitive guide to the 2026 CFB betting landscape.
CLEATZ / COLLEGE FOOTBALL
SP+ meets
the market.
WEEK 52026 SEASONConnelly’s model. The available line. A clearer look at where they disagree.
FBS ratings & projections: Bill Connelly’s SP+ sheet ↗
Source checked Sep 29 · 4:17 pm ET. Model period: Week 5.
Source checked Sep 29 · 4:17 pm ET. Model period: Week 5.
FBS TEAMS138Complete ratings table
UPCOMING GAMES59Published SP+ projections
CURRENT COMPARISONS56Matched odds retrieved within 15 min
GAPS OF 2+ POINTS32Against current market only
THIS WEEK’S BOARD
Where the numbers separate
A point difference is a research signal. It is not a measured probability of covering.
Current lines use the CLEATZ Game Odds cache. DraftKings is preferred; another named book is used when unavailable. Retrieved time is the feed-cache time, not a book’s quote timestamp.
These are reference lines published in Connelly’s sheet. They are not current sportsbook offers or verified opening lines. Source gaps are excluded from the live comparison count and CLEATZ results record.
| Matchup / kickoff | SP+ projection | Current market | Model–market gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP at New MexicoOct 3 · 4:00 pm ET | New Mexico −34.3New Mexico 98% win probability | New Mexico −22.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: New Mexico −21 | 11.8 ptsNew Mexico -22.5 (-112) |
| Bowling Green at Miami-OHOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Miami-OH −24.6Miami-OH 94% win probability | Miami-OH −13.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Miami-OH −15.5 | 11.1 ptsMiami-OH -13.5 (-105) |
| Fresno State at Washington StateOct 3 · 9:30 pm ET | Fresno State −6.6Fresno State 66% win probability | Washington State −2.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Washington State −1.5 | 9.1 ptsFresno State +2.5 (-110) |
| Texas Tech at ColoradoOct 3 · 7:31 pm ET | Texas Tech −21Texas Tech 91% win probability | Texas Tech −12.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Texas Tech −14.5 | 8.5 ptsTexas Tech -12.5 (-112) |
| Eastern Michigan at MassachusettsOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Massachusetts −14.3Massachusetts 81% win probability | Massachusetts −6.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Massachusetts −5.5 | 7.8 ptsMassachusetts -6.5 (-105) |
| Purdue at IllinoisOct 3 · 4:15 pm ET | Illinois −17.5Illinois 86% win probability | Illinois −10 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Illinois −10 | 7.5 ptsIllinois -10 (-110) |
| Baylor at Arizona StateOct 3 · 10:30 pm ET | Baylor −2.7Baylor 57% win probability | Arizona State −4 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Arizona State −3.5 | 6.7 ptsBaylor +4 (-108) |
| UCF at HoustonOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Houston −5.9Houston 64% win probability | Houston −12.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Houston −11.5 | 6.6 ptsUCF +12.5 (-112) |
| Memphis at CharlotteOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Memphis −27.1Memphis 96% win probability | Memphis −20.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Memphis −21.5 | 6.6 ptsMemphis -20.5 (-108) |
| Syracuse at ConnecticutOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Pick’emConnecticut 50% win probability | Syracuse −6.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Syracuse −5.5 | 6.5 ptsConnecticut +6.5 (-110) |
| Ohio at Kent StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Ohio −9.4Ohio 72% win probability | Ohio −3 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Ohio −5.5 | 6.4 ptsOhio -3 (-115) |
| Marshall at James MadisonOct 3 · 3:45 pm ET | James Madison −24.9James Madison 94% win probability | James Madison −18.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: James Madison −16.5 | 6.4 ptsJames Madison -18.5 (-105) |
| Temple at USFOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | USF −12.5USF 78% win probability | USF −6.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: USF −6 | 6 ptsUSF -6.5 (-108) |
| Western Michigan at BuffaloOct 3 · 1:00 pm ET | Western Michigan −7.6Western Michigan 68% win probability | Western Michigan −13.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Western Michigan −15.5 | 5.9 ptsBuffalo +13.5 (-108) |
| Penn State at NorthwesternOct 2 · 8:00 pm ET | Penn State −7.1Penn State 67% win probability | Penn State −2.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Penn State −3 | 4.6 ptsPenn State -2.5 (-120) |
| Wyoming at North Dakota StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | North Dakota State −23North Dakota State 93% win probability | North Dakota State −18.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: North Dakota State −20.5 | 4.5 ptsNorth Dakota State -18.5 (-110) |
| Army at Louisiana TechOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | Army −6.5Army 66% win probability | Army −2.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Army −3.5 | 4 ptsArmy -2.5 (-105) |
| Liberty at DelawareOct 2 · 7:00 pm ET | Liberty −10.8Liberty 75% win probability | Liberty −7 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Liberty −7 | 3.8 ptsLiberty -7 (-112) |
| Virginia at Florida StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Virginia −6.2Virginia 65% win probability | Virginia −2.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Virginia −2.5 | 3.7 ptsVirginia -2.5 (-115) |
| Pittsburgh at Virginia TechOct 2 · 7:00 pm ET | Virginia Tech −0.1Virginia Tech 50% win probability | Virginia Tech −3.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Virginia Tech −4.5 | 3.4 ptsPittsburgh +3.5 (-118) |
| Toledo at Ball StateOct 3 · 2:00 pm ET | Toledo −22.9Toledo 92% win probability | Toledo −19.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Toledo −18.5 | 3.4 ptsToledo -19.5 (-108) |
| North Texas at TulsaOct 1 · 9:00 pm ET | Tulsa −4.8Tulsa 62% win probability | Tulsa −1.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Tulsa −2.5 | 3.3 ptsTulsa -1.5 (+100) |
| Florida at MissouriOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Florida −2.3Florida 56% win probability | Florida −5.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Florida −4 | 3.2 ptsMissouri +5.5 (-115) |
| Cincinnati at ArizonaOct 3 · 11:00 pm ET | Arizona −4Arizona 60% win probability | Arizona −7 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Arizona −7 | 3 ptsCincinnati +7 (-108) |
| Ohio State at IowaOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Ohio State −11.5Ohio State 76% win probability | Ohio State −14 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Ohio State −13.5 | 2.5 ptsIowa +14 (-110) |
| Arkansas State at UL-LafayetteOct 3 · 8:00 pm ET | UL-Lafayette −9UL-Lafayette 71% win probability | UL-Lafayette −6.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: UL-Lafayette −6 | 2.5 ptsUL-Lafayette -6.5 (-115) |
| San Jose State at HawaiiOct 3 · 11:59 pm ET | Hawaii −5.4Hawaii 63% win probability | Hawaii −3 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Hawaii −4.5 | 2.4 ptsHawaii -3 (-105) |
| Arkansas at Texas A&MOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | Texas A&M −11.7Texas A&M 77% win probability | Texas A&M −14 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Texas A&M −14.5 | 2.3 ptsArkansas +14 (-110) |
| Old Dominion at Georgia StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Old Dominion −0.7Old Dominion 52% win probability | Georgia State −1.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Old Dominion −1.5 | 2.2 ptsOld Dominion +1.5 (-105) |
| Georgia Southern at Coastal CarolinaOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | Georgia Southern −0.3Georgia Southern 51% win probability | Georgia Southern −2.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Georgia Southern −1.5 | 2.2 ptsCoastal Carolina +2.5 (-110) |
| Stanford at Wake ForestOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Wake Forest −14.6Wake Forest 82% win probability | Wake Forest −12.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Wake Forest −12.5 | 2.1 ptsWake Forest -12.5 (-112) |
| UL-Monroe at South AlabamaOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | South Alabama −16.1South Alabama 84% win probability | South Alabama −14 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: South Alabama −14.5 | 2.1 ptsSouth Alabama -14 (-108) |
| Auburn at TennesseeOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Tennessee −8.8Tennessee 71% win probability | Tennessee −7 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Tennessee −7.5 | 1.8 ptsTennessee -7 (-112) |
| Miami-FL at ClemsonOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | Miami-FL −18.3Miami-FL 87% win probability | Miami-FL −16.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Miami-FL −17.5 | 1.8 ptsMiami-FL -16.5 (-112) |
| Notre Dame at North CarolinaOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Notre Dame −22.5Notre Dame 92% win probability | Notre Dame −21 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Notre Dame −21.5 | 1.5 ptsNotre Dame -21 (-110) |
| Indiana at RutgersOct 3 · 8:00 pm ET | Indiana −26Indiana 95% win probability | Indiana −24.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Indiana −23.5 | 1.5 ptsIndiana -24.5 (-105) |
| Western Kentucky at New Mexico StateOct 1 · 8:00 pm ET | New Mexico State −1.1New Mexico State 53% win probability | New Mexico State −2.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: New Mexico State −1.5 | 1.4 ptsWestern Kentucky +2.5 (-108) |
| Washington at USCOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | USC −8.2USC 70% win probability | USC −9.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: USC −9.5 | 1.3 ptsWashington +9.5 (-105) |
| Maryland at NebraskaOct 3 · 4:00 pm ET | Nebraska −15.6Nebraska 84% win probability | Nebraska −14.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Nebraska −13.5 | 1.1 ptsNebraska -14.5 (-112) |
| Texas State at San Diego StateOct 3 · 10:30 pm ET | Texas State −3.4Texas State 59% win probability | Texas State −4.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Texas State −4 | 1.1 ptsSan Diego State +4.5 (-115) |
| Middle Tennessee at KansasOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Kansas −19.5Kansas 89% win probability | Kansas −18.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Kansas −20.5 | 1 ptsKansas -18.5 (-112) |
| West Virginia at Iowa StateOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Iowa State −4.5Iowa State 61% win probability | Iowa State −3.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Iowa State −1.5 | 1 ptsIowa State -3.5 (-105) |
| Utah State at Boise StateOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | Boise State −19.5Boise State 89% win probability | Boise State −20.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Boise State −21 | 1 ptsUtah State +20.5 (-110) |
| Michigan State at WisconsinOct 3 · 12:30 pm ET | Wisconsin −9.1Wisconsin 72% win probability | Wisconsin −10 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Wisconsin −10 | 0.9 ptsMichigan State +10 (-108) |
| California at UNLVOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | UNLV −3.4UNLV 58% win probability | UNLV −2.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: UNLV −1.5 | 0.9 ptsUNLV -2.5 (-112) |
| BYU at TCUOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | BYU −5.6BYU 64% win probability | BYU −6.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: BYU −6.5 | 0.9 ptsTCU +6.5 (-108) |
| Boston College at SMUOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | SMU −20.2SMU 90% win probability | SMU −21 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: SMU −20.5 | 0.8 ptsBoston College +21 (-112) |
| Vanderbilt at GeorgiaOct 3 · 12:45 pm ET | Georgia −25.2Georgia 94% win probability | Georgia −24.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Georgia −25.5 | 0.7 ptsGeorgia -24.5 (-108) |
| Alabama at Mississippi StateOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Alabama −5.4Alabama 63% win probability | Alabama −6 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Alabama −6 | 0.6 ptsMississippi State +6 (-112) |
| Kentucky at South CarolinaOct 3 · 4:15 pm ET | South Carolina −2South Carolina 55% win probability | South Carolina −2.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: South Carolina −3.5 | 0.5 ptsKentucky +2.5 (-102) |
| Akron at Central MichiganOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Central Michigan −6.9Central Michigan 67% win probability | Central Michigan −6.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Central Michigan −5.5 | 0.4 ptsCentral Michigan -6.5 (-112) |
| Michigan at MinnesotaOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Michigan −5.3Michigan 63% win probability | Michigan −5.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Michigan −6.5 | 0.2 ptsMinnesota +5.5 (-110) |
| Navy at Air ForceOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Air Force −2.8Air Force 57% win probability | Air Force −3 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Air Force −2.5 | 0.2 ptsNavy +3 (-102) |
| Louisville at NC StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Louisville −3.9Louisville 60% win probability | Louisville −4 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Louisville −6 | 0.1 ptsNC State +4 (-115) |
| UTSA at RiceOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | UTSA −11.6UTSA 77% win probability | UTSA −11.5 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: UTSA −11.5 | 0.1 ptsUTSA -11.5 (-108) |
| Oregon State at Colorado StateOct 3 · 6:00 pm ET | Oregon State −6Oregon State 65% win probability | Oregon State −6 DraftKings · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:38 pm ET First CLEATZ line: Oregon State −4 | 0 ptsNo difference |
| Samford at UABOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | UAB −29.4UAB 97% win probability | Not availableNo recent matched quote | — |
| Texas Southern at Florida AtlanticOct 3 · 6:00 pm ET | Florida Atlantic −44.9Florida Atlantic 100% win probability | Not availableNo recent matched quote | — |
| McNeese State at LSUOct 3 · 7:45 pm ET | LSU −58.2LSU 100% win probability | Not availableNo recent matched quote | — |
No games match these filters.
| Matchup / kickoff | SP+ projection | Source reference | Model–market gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP at New MexicoOct 3 · 4:00 pm ET | New Mexico −34.3New Mexico 98% win probability | New Mexico −21 Connelly sheet · reference only | 13.3 ptsNew Mexico |
| Eastern Michigan at MassachusettsOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Massachusetts −14.3Massachusetts 81% win probability | Massachusetts −4 Connelly sheet · reference only | 10.3 ptsMassachusetts |
| Marshall at James MadisonOct 3 · 3:45 pm ET | James Madison −24.9James Madison 94% win probability | James Madison −15.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 9.4 ptsJames Madison |
| Bowling Green at Miami-OHOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Miami-OH −24.6Miami-OH 94% win probability | Miami-OH −15.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 9.1 ptsMiami-OH |
| Western Michigan at BuffaloOct 3 · 1:00 pm ET | Western Michigan −7.6Western Michigan 68% win probability | Western Michigan −16.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 8.9 ptsBuffalo |
| Fresno State at Washington StateOct 3 · 9:30 pm ET | Fresno State −6.6Fresno State 66% win probability | Washington State −1.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 8.1 ptsFresno State |
| Purdue at IllinoisOct 3 · 4:15 pm ET | Illinois −17.5Illinois 86% win probability | Illinois −10 Connelly sheet · reference only | 7.5 ptsIllinois |
| Baylor at Arizona StateOct 3 · 10:30 pm ET | Baylor −2.7Baylor 57% win probability | Arizona State −4 Connelly sheet · reference only | 6.7 ptsBaylor |
| Texas Tech at ColoradoOct 3 · 7:31 pm ET | Texas Tech −21Texas Tech 91% win probability | Texas Tech −14.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 6.5 ptsTexas Tech |
| Temple at USFOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | USF −12.5USF 78% win probability | USF −6 Connelly sheet · reference only | 6.5 ptsUSF |
| Memphis at CharlotteOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Memphis −27.1Memphis 96% win probability | Memphis −21.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 5.6 ptsMemphis |
| Syracuse at ConnecticutOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Pick’emConnecticut 50% win probability | Syracuse −5.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 5.5 ptsConnecticut |
| Pittsburgh at Virginia TechOct 2 · 7:00 pm ET | Virginia Tech −0.1Virginia Tech 50% win probability | Virginia Tech −5.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 5.4 ptsPittsburgh |
| Toledo at Ball StateOct 3 · 2:00 pm ET | Toledo −22.9Toledo 92% win probability | Toledo −17.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 5.4 ptsToledo |
| UCF at HoustonOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Houston −5.9Houston 64% win probability | Houston −10.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 4.6 ptsUCF |
| Arkansas State at UL-LafayetteOct 3 · 8:00 pm ET | UL-Lafayette −9UL-Lafayette 71% win probability | UL-Lafayette −4.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 4.5 ptsUL-Lafayette |
| Penn State at NorthwesternOct 2 · 8:00 pm ET | Penn State −7.1Penn State 67% win probability | Penn State −3 Connelly sheet · reference only | 4.1 ptsPenn State |
| Ohio at Kent StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Ohio −9.4Ohio 72% win probability | Ohio −5.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 3.9 ptsOhio |
| Liberty at DelawareOct 2 · 7:00 pm ET | Liberty −10.8Liberty 75% win probability | Liberty −7 Connelly sheet · reference only | 3.8 ptsLiberty |
| Virginia at Florida StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Virginia −6.2Virginia 65% win probability | Virginia −3 Connelly sheet · reference only | 3.2 ptsVirginia |
| Florida at MissouriOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Florida −2.3Florida 56% win probability | Florida −5.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 3.2 ptsMissouri |
| Army at Louisiana TechOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | Army −6.5Army 66% win probability | Army −3.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 3 ptsArmy |
| Cincinnati at ArizonaOct 3 · 11:00 pm ET | Arizona −4Arizona 60% win probability | Arizona −7 Connelly sheet · reference only | 3 ptsCincinnati |
| Ohio State at IowaOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Ohio State −11.5Ohio State 76% win probability | Ohio State −14.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 3 ptsIowa |
| West Virginia at Iowa StateOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Iowa State −4.5Iowa State 61% win probability | Iowa State −1.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 3 ptsIowa State |
| Arkansas at Texas A&MOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | Texas A&M −11.7Texas A&M 77% win probability | Texas A&M −14.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 2.8 ptsArkansas |
| Wyoming at North Dakota StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | North Dakota State −23North Dakota State 93% win probability | North Dakota State −20.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 2.5 ptsNorth Dakota State |
| Indiana at RutgersOct 3 · 8:00 pm ET | Indiana −26Indiana 95% win probability | Indiana −23.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 2.5 ptsIndiana |
| North Texas at TulsaOct 1 · 9:00 pm ET | Tulsa −4.8Tulsa 62% win probability | Tulsa −2.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 2.3 ptsTulsa |
| Louisville at NC StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Louisville −3.9Louisville 60% win probability | Louisville −6 Connelly sheet · reference only | 2.1 ptsNC State |
| Stanford at Wake ForestOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Wake Forest −14.6Wake Forest 82% win probability | Wake Forest −12.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 2.1 ptsWake Forest |
| Maryland at NebraskaOct 3 · 4:00 pm ET | Nebraska −15.6Nebraska 84% win probability | Nebraska −13.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 2.1 ptsNebraska |
| Oregon State at Colorado StateOct 3 · 6:00 pm ET | Oregon State −6Oregon State 65% win probability | Oregon State −4 Connelly sheet · reference only | 2 ptsOregon State |
| California at UNLVOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | UNLV −3.4UNLV 58% win probability | UNLV −1.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.9 ptsUNLV |
| UL-Monroe at South AlabamaOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | South Alabama −16.1South Alabama 84% win probability | South Alabama −14.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.6 ptsSouth Alabama |
| Utah State at Boise StateOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | Boise State −19.5Boise State 89% win probability | Boise State −21 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.5 ptsUtah State |
| Kentucky at South CarolinaOct 3 · 4:15 pm ET | South Carolina −2South Carolina 55% win probability | South Carolina −3.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.5 ptsKentucky |
| Akron at Central MichiganOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Central Michigan −6.9Central Michigan 67% win probability | Central Michigan −5.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.4 ptsCentral Michigan |
| Auburn at TennesseeOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Tennessee −8.8Tennessee 71% win probability | Tennessee −7.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.3 ptsTennessee |
| Washington at USCOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | USC −8.2USC 70% win probability | USC −9.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.3 ptsWashington |
| Navy at Air ForceOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Air Force −2.8Air Force 57% win probability | Air Force −1.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.3 ptsAir Force |
| Michigan at MinnesotaOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Michigan −5.3Michigan 63% win probability | Michigan −6.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.2 ptsMinnesota |
| Georgia Southern at Coastal CarolinaOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | Georgia Southern −0.3Georgia Southern 51% win probability | Georgia Southern −1.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1.2 ptsCoastal Carolina |
| Middle Tennessee at KansasOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Kansas −19.5Kansas 89% win probability | Kansas −20.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 1 ptsMiddle Tennessee |
| San Jose State at HawaiiOct 3 · 11:59 pm ET | Hawaii −5.4Hawaii 63% win probability | Hawaii −4.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.9 ptsHawaii |
| Michigan State at WisconsinOct 3 · 12:30 pm ET | Wisconsin −9.1Wisconsin 72% win probability | Wisconsin −10 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.9 ptsMichigan State |
| BYU at TCUOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | BYU −5.6BYU 64% win probability | BYU −6.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.9 ptsTCU |
| Miami-FL at ClemsonOct 3 · 7:30 pm ET | Miami-FL −18.3Miami-FL 87% win probability | Miami-FL −17.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.8 ptsMiami-FL |
| Boston College at SMUOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | SMU −20.2SMU 90% win probability | SMU −21 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.8 ptsBoston College |
| Old Dominion at Georgia StateOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | Old Dominion −0.7Old Dominion 52% win probability | Old Dominion −1.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.8 ptsGeorgia State |
| Texas State at San Diego StateOct 3 · 10:30 pm ET | Texas State −3.4Texas State 59% win probability | Texas State −4 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.6 ptsSan Diego State |
| Western Kentucky at New Mexico StateOct 1 · 8:00 pm ET | New Mexico State −1.1New Mexico State 53% win probability | New Mexico State −1.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.4 ptsWestern Kentucky |
| Vanderbilt at GeorgiaOct 3 · 12:45 pm ET | Georgia −25.2Georgia 94% win probability | Georgia −25.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.3 ptsVanderbilt |
| Alabama at Mississippi StateOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Alabama −5.4Alabama 63% win probability | Alabama −5.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.1 ptsMississippi State |
| UTSA at RiceOct 3 · 7:00 pm ET | UTSA −11.6UTSA 77% win probability | UTSA −11.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0.1 ptsUTSA |
| Notre Dame at North CarolinaOct 3 · 12:00 pm ET | Notre Dame −22.5Notre Dame 92% win probability | Notre Dame −22.5 Connelly sheet · reference only | 0 ptsNo difference |
| Samford at UABOct 3 · 3:30 pm ET | UAB −29.4UAB 97% win probability | Not availableNo recent matched quote | — |
| Texas Southern at Florida AtlanticOct 3 · 6:00 pm ET | Florida Atlantic −44.9Florida Atlantic 100% win probability | Not availableNo recent matched quote | — |
| McNeese State at LSUOct 3 · 7:45 pm ET | LSU −58.2LSU 100% win probability | Not availableNo recent matched quote | — |
No games match these filters.
Georgia
+30.2 SP+; offense No. 2 and defense No. 1. Ratings measure team strength, not championship probability.
Massachusetts
Up 38 places to No. 93 from the prior source ranking. Rank movement and rating-point movement are different measures.
New Mexico
The largest matched upcoming difference is 11.8 points versus DraftKings. Check the matchup and price before drawing a conclusion.
THE FOUNDATION
Complete FBS SP+ rankings
Standard FBS rating scale. Higher overall and offense are better; lower defense is better.
138 teams
Swipe for title odds, unit ratings and polls →
| Rank | Team | SP+ | CFB title odds | Change | Offense | Defense | AP | Coaches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GeorgiaSEC · | +30.2 | +550 | ↑ 1 | 41.6No. 2 | 11.8No. 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | Ohio StateBig Ten · 3-1 | +28.8 | +500 | ↓ 1 | 41.6No. 1 | 12.7No. 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Notre DameIndies · | +28.1 | +600 | — | 40.5No. 4 | 12.7No. 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | IndianaBig Ten · | +26.9 | +1200 | — | 40.3No. 6 | 13.7No. 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 5 | Miami-FLACC · | +25.7 | +750 | ↑ 2 | 39.5No. 8 | 14No. 8 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | AlabamaSEC · | +23 | +2500 | ↑ 5 | 39.6No. 7 | 16.6No. 13 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | TexasSEC · | +22.4 | +600 | ↓ 1 | 35.7No. 16 | 13.6No. 5 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | OregonBig Ten · 3-1 | +21.6 | +2300 | ↓ 3 | 40.3No. 5 | 19No. 25 | 15 | 15 |
| 9 | UtahBig 12 · | +21.5 | +10000 | ↑ 10 | 37.1No. 13 | 15.7No. 11 | 13 | 13 |
| 10 | LSUSEC · 3-1 | +21.3 | +1750 | ↓ 1 | 34.7No. 22 | 13.4No. 4 | 11 | 11 |
| 11 | Texas TechBig 12 · | +20.2 | +5200 | ↑ 2 | 37.5No. 11 | 17.6No. 17 | 12 | 10 |
| 12 | FloridaSEC · | +18.5 | +2000 | ↑ 3 | 38.8No. 9 | 20.8No. 31 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | USCBig Ten · 4-1 | +17.8 | +10000 | ↓ 5 | 41.5No. 3 | 23.7No. 49 | 18 | 18 |
| 14 | TennesseeSEC · 3-1 | +17.7 | +6500 | ↓ 4 | 36.8No. 14 | 19.3No. 26 | 17 | 17 |
| 15 | Penn StateBig Ten · 3-1 | +16.9 | +12500 | ↓ 3 | 32.7No. 28 | 16.1No. 12 | NR | 22 |
| 16 | NebraskaBig Ten · | +16.9 | +40000 | ↑ 7 | 35.2No. 20 | 18.3No. 22 | NR | NR |
| 17 | BYUBig 12 · | +16.3 | +10000 | — | 34.3No. 25 | 18.2No. 21 | 10 | 9 |
| 18 | Mississippi StateSEC · | +15.1 | +10000 | ↑ 12 | 37.9No. 10 | 23.1No. 48 | 16 | 16 |
| 19 | IowaBig Ten · | +14.8 | +15000 | ↓ 1 | 29No. 51 | 14.5No. 10 | 14 | 14 |
| 20 | PittsburghACC · | +14.7 | +50000 | ↑ 17 | 32No. 36 | 17.4No. 15 | NR | NR |
| 21 | VirginiaACC · 3-1 | +14.4 | +100000 | ↑ 15 | 32.4No. 31 | 18.1No. 20 | NR | NR |
| 22 | MichiganBig Ten · 3-1 | +14.3 | +18000 | ↓ 1 | 28.8No. 52 | 14.4No. 9 | NR | 24 |
| 23 | Kansas StateBig 12 · 3-1 | +14 | +80000 | ↑ 1 | 35No. 21 | 21.2No. 37 | NR | NR |
| 24 | UCLABig Ten · | +13.8 | +25000 | ↑ 16 | 35.7No. 17 | 22No. 40 | 23 | 23 |
| 25 | MissouriSEC · 3-1 | +13.7 | +25000 | ↓ 3 | 31.2No. 40 | 17.3No. 14 | 25 | 25 |
| 26 | SMUACC · 3-1 | +13 | +40000 | ↑ 3 | 35.7No. 18 | 22.3No. 41 | 21 | 19 |
| 27 | OklahomaSEC · 2-2 | +12.8 | +25000 | ↓ 11 | 26.1No. 76 | 13.6No. 6 | NR | NR |
| 28 | Virginia TechACC · | +12.3 | +30000 | — | 32.9No. 27 | 20.6No. 30 | NR | NR |
| 29 | WashingtonBig Ten · 3-1 | +12.1 | +75000 | ↓ 2 | 29.9No. 45 | 17.7No. 18 | NR | NR |
| 30 | HoustonBig 12 · 3-1 | +12.1 | +25000 | ↑ 4 | 36.3No. 15 | 24.2No. 53 | 20 | 20 |
| 31 | AuburnSEC · 3-1 | +11.4 | +50000 | — | 28.7No. 53 | 17.5No. 16 | NR | NR |
| 32 | Ole MissSEC · 3-1 | +11.1 | +3000 | ↓ 12 | 37.2No. 12 | 26.6No. 75 | 9 | 12 |
| 33 | ArizonaBig 12 · 3-1 | +10.7 | +100000 | ↑ 5 | 32.3No. 32 | 21.3No. 38 | NR | NR |
| 34 | DukeACC · | +10.2 | +100000 | ↑ 12 | 32.4No. 30 | 22.4No. 42 | NR | 21 |
| 35 | Oklahoma StateBig 12 · 3-1 | +10.2 | +50000 | ↑ 6 | 32.2No. 33 | 22.4No. 43 | 19 | NR |
| 36 | James MadisonSun Belt · | +9.9 | +125000 | ↑ 14 | 29.4No. 48 | 19.5No. 27 | NR | NR |
| 37 | LouisvilleACC · 2-2 | +9.9 | +50000 | ↓ 12 | 35.4No. 19 | 25.7No. 66 | NR | NR |
| 38 | CincinnatiBig 12 · | +9.2 | +125000 | ↑ 4 | 34.4No. 23 | 25.5No. 63 | NR | NR |
| 39 | Texas A&MSEC · 2-2 | +8.9 | +30000 | ↓ 25 | 31.4No. 38 | 22.5No. 44 | NR | NR |
| 40 | UCFBig 12 · 3-1 | +8.7 | +200000 | ↑ 14 | 27No. 65 | 18.4No. 23 | NR | NR |
| 41 | IllinoisBig Ten · 2-2 | +8.5 | +300000 | ↓ 8 | 34.3No. 24 | 26.2No. 71 | NR | NR |
| 42 | TCUBig 12 · 2-2 | +8.2 | +125000 | ↓ 10 | 28.2No. 58 | 19.9No. 28 | NR | NR |
| 43 | BaylorBig 12 · 3-1 | +8.1 | +120000 | ↑ 5 | 28.5No. 55 | 20.8No. 32 | NR | NR |
| 44 | KentuckySEC · 3-1 | +8 | +75000 | ↑ 5 | 31.2No. 41 | 23.1No. 47 | 24 | NR |
| 45 | North Dakota StateMWC · | +7.8 | +125000 | ↓ 10 | 28.6No. 54 | 20.9No. 33 | NR | NR |
| 46 | New MexicoMWC · 3-1 | +7.7 | +200000 | ↑ 12 | 27.9No. 61 | 20.4No. 29 | NR | NR |
| 47 | Boise StatePac-12 · 3-1 | +7.6 | +60000 | — | 32.4No. 29 | 24.8No. 56 | 22 | NR |
| 48 | VanderbiltSEC · 3-1 | +7.5 | +125000 | ↓ 9 | 29.8No. 46 | 22.6No. 45 | NR | NR |
| 49 | South CarolinaSEC · 2-2 | +7.5 | +150000 | ↓ 23 | 31.3No. 39 | 24.1No. 52 | NR | NR |
| 50 | NorthwesternBig Ten · 2-1 | +7.3 | +80000 | ↓ 6 | 28.1No. 59 | 21.2No. 36 | NR | NR |
| 51 | WisconsinBig Ten · 3-1 | +6.9 | +100000 | ↑ 5 | 24.9No. 84 | 18No. 19 | NR | NR |
| 52 | MinnesotaBig Ten · 3-1 | +6.5 | +100000 | ↓ 1 | 27.7No. 62 | 21.2No. 34 | NR | NR |
| 53 | Florida StateACC · 2-2 | +5.7 | +200000 | — | 32.1No. 35 | 26.5No. 74 | NR | NR |
| 54 | ClemsonACC · 3-1 | +4.9 | +125000 | ↓ 9 | 23.5No. 91 | 18.9No. 24 | NR | NR |
| 55 | USFAAC · | +3.9 | +150000 | ↑ 11 | 29.3No. 49 | 25.4No. 62 | NR | NR |
| 56 | MarylandBig Ten · 2-2 | +3.9 | +400000 | ↓ 13 | 28.4No. 56 | 24.7No. 54 | NR | NR |
| 57 | Wake ForestACC · 3-1 | +3.7 | +150000 | ↑ 6 | 29.1No. 50 | 25.5No. 64 | NR | NR |
| 58 | Iowa StateBig 12 · 2-2 | +3.4 | +200000 | ↓ 6 | 24.5No. 86 | 21.4No. 39 | NR | NR |
| 59 | NC StateACC · 2-2 | +3.4 | +200000 | ↓ 2 | 31.5No. 37 | 28No. 84 | NR | NR |
| 60 | North CarolinaACC · 2-1 | +3 | +125000 | ↓ 1 | 23.9No. 88 | 21.2No. 35 | NR | NR |
| 61 | Arizona StateBig 12 · 2-1 | +3 | +50000 | ↓ 6 | 26.3No. 73 | 22.8No. 46 | NR | NR |
| 62 | LibertyCUSA · 3-1 | +2.5 | +300000 | ↑ 20 | 27.4No. 63 | 24.7No. 55 | NR | NR |
| 63 | MemphisAAC · 3-1 | +2.3 | +125000 | ↓ 1 | 32.2No. 34 | 30No. 97 | NR | NR |
| 64 | West VirginiaBig 12 · 3-1 | +1.4 | +125000 | ↓ 3 | 30.4No. 43 | 29.1No. 92 | NR | NR |
| 65 | Oregon StatePac-12 · 2-2 | +1.2 | +200000 | ↑ 14 | 26.5No. 67 | 24.8No. 57 | NR | NR |
| 66 | KansasBig 12 · 1-2 | +1 | +200000 | ↓ 2 | 26.4No. 71 | 25.8No. 67 | NR | NR |
| 67 | Michigan StateBig Ten · 2-2 | +0.3 | +300000 | ↓ 2 | 25.3No. 80 | 24.9No. 58 | NR | NR |
| 68 | ToledoMAC · 3-1 | +0.3 | +250000 | ↑ 19 | 26.5No. 69 | 25.9No. 68 | NR | NR |
| 69 | Georgia TechACC · 1-3 | -0.1 | +300000 | ↓ 9 | 26.6No. 66 | 26.9No. 76 | NR | NR |
| 70 | Fresno StatePac-12 · 3-1 | -0.3 | +200000 | ↑ 1 | 23.6No. 90 | 24No. 50 | NR | NR |
| 71 | ArkansasSEC · 2-2 | -0.3 | +300000 | ↓ 1 | 28.1No. 60 | 28.7No. 90 | NR | NR |
| 72 | ArmyAAC · 2-1 | -0.8 | +300000 | ↓ 4 | 26.1No. 75 | 27No. 77 | NR | NR |
| 73 | UTSAAAC · 3-1 | -1 | +200000 | ↑ 1 | 30No. 44 | 31No. 99 | NR | NR |
| 74 | SyracuseACC · 1-2 | -1.2 | +300000 | ↓ 5 | 22.6No. 97 | 24.1No. 51 | NR | NR |
| 75 | RutgersBig Ten · 1-3 | -1.6 | — | ↑ 2 | 31No. 42 | 32.8No. 113 | NR | NR |
| 76 | Texas StatePac-12 · 2-2 | -1.8 | +250000 | ↑ 15 | 33.7No. 26 | 35.4No. 122 | NR | NR |
| 77 | Jacksonville StateCUSA · 3-2 | -2.2 | +125000 | ↑ 6 | 26.4No. 70 | 28.4No. 88 | NR | NR |
| 78 | UNLVMWC · 2-2 | -2.4 | +300000 | ↑ 6 | 26.1No. 77 | 28.5No. 89 | NR | NR |
| 79 | East CarolinaAAC · 2-2 | -2.8 | +400000 | ↑ 11 | 23.4No. 92 | 26.2No. 69 | NR | NR |
| 80 | UL-LafayetteSun Belt · 3-1 | -3 | +300000 | ↑ 19 | 25.1No. 83 | 27.8No. 83 | NR | NR |
| 81 | CaliforniaACC · 2-2 | -3.2 | +250000 | ↓ 14 | 23.3No. 93 | 26.2No. 70 | NR | NR |
| 82 | ColoradoBig 12 · 2-2 | -3.3 | +350000 | ↓ 10 | 22.2No. 99 | 25.1No. 59 | NR | NR |
| 83 | TulsaAAC · 3-1 | -3.4 | +300000 | ↓ 10 | 21.7No. 101 | 25.3No. 60 | NR | NR |
| 84 | Air ForceMWC · 2-1 | -3.4 | +300000 | ↓ 3 | 26.2No. 74 | 29.7No. 94 | NR | NR |
| 85 | ConnecticutIndies · 2-2 | -3.7 | +300000 | ↑ 1 | 25.5No. 79 | 29.6No. 93 | NR | NR |
| 86 | NavyAAC · 1-2 | -3.7 | +250000 | ↓ 10 | 25.9No. 78 | 29.8No. 95 | NR | NR |
| 87 | Florida AtlanticAAC · 3-1 | -4.2 | +300000 | ↑ 13 | 27.2No. 64 | 31.7No. 106 | NR | NR |
| 88 | Miami-OHMAC · 2-2 | -4.3 | +125000 | ↑ 4 | 24.5No. 87 | 28.9No. 91 | NR | NR |
| 89 | Appalachian StateSun Belt · 3-1 | -4.4 | +350000 | ↑ 5 | 25.3No. 81 | 29.8No. 96 | NR | NR |
| 90 | Boston CollegeACC · 2-2 | -4.6 | +400000 | ↓ 5 | 20.9No. 106 | 25.6No. 65 | NR | NR |
| 91 | North TexasAAC · 2-2 | -5.7 | +200000 | ↑ 14 | 29.7No. 47 | 35.1No. 120 | NR | NR |
| 92 | TempleAAC · 1-3 | -6.1 | +125000 | ↑ 3 | 26.5No. 68 | 32.8No. 112 | NR | NR |
| 93 | MassachusettsMAC · | -6.2 | +250000 | ↑ 38 | 21.7No. 102 | 27.8No. 82 | NR | NR |
| 94 | PurdueBig Ten · 1-3 | -6.4 | +200000 | ↓ 19 | 28.3No. 57 | 35.1No. 121 | NR | NR |
| 95 | NevadaMWC · 1-3 | -6.5 | — | ↑ 13 | 21.6No. 103 | 28.4No. 87 | NR | NR |
| 96 | Western MichiganMAC · 2-2 | -7.2 | +125000 | ↓ 16 | 19.1No. 113 | 26.3No. 72 | NR | NR |
| 97 | Colorado StatePac-12 · 2-2 | -7.3 | +125000 | ↓ 1 | 26.4No. 72 | 33.6No. 116 | NR | NR |
| 98 | TulaneAAC · 2-2 | -7.3 | +250000 | ↓ 10 | 20No. 109 | 27.6No. 80 | NR | NR |
| 99 | Florida InternationalCUSA · 2-2 | -7.6 | +100000 | ↑ 13 | 17.9No. 124 | 25.4No. 61 | NR | NR |
| 100 | San Diego StatePac-12 · 1-3 | -7.8 | +125000 | ↓ 22 | 19.9No. 110 | 28.1No. 86 | NR | NR |
| 101 | Old DominionSun Belt · 1-3 | -7.9 | +125000 | ↓ 4 | 18.8No. 117 | 26.4No. 73 | NR | NR |
| 102 | StanfordACC · 2-2 | -8.4 | +200000 | ↓ 1 | 22.3No. 98 | 30.3No. 98 | NR | NR |
| 103 | Georgia SouthernSun Belt · 1-3 | -8.6 | — | ↓ 1 | 23No. 95 | 31.4No. 104 | NR | NR |
| 104 | TroySun Belt · 2-2 | -8.8 | +125000 | ↓ 11 | 19.3No. 112 | 28No. 85 | NR | NR |
| 105 | Utah StatePac-12 · 1-3 | -9.3 | +125000 | ↑ 1 | 18.2No. 121 | 27.1No. 78 | NR | NR |
| 106 | Washington StatePac-12 · 1-3 | -9.3 | +125000 | ↓ 17 | 18.4No. 120 | 27.5No. 79 | NR | NR |
| 107 | Arkansas StateSun Belt · 2-2 | -9.5 | +125000 | — | 23.3No. 94 | 32.7No. 110 | NR | NR |
| 108 | Louisiana TechSun Belt · 1-2 | -9.8 | +125000 | ↓ 4 | 21.5No. 104 | 31.3No. 101 | NR | NR |
| 109 | OhioMAC · 2-2 | -10.5 | — | ↑ 5 | 21.2No. 105 | 31.3No. 102 | NR | NR |
| 110 | DelawareCUSA · 2-2 | -10.7 | +125000 | ↓ 7 | 21.8No. 100 | 32.2No. 108 | NR | NR |
| 111 | Georgia StateSun Belt · 3-1 | -11.2 | +400000 | ↑ 17 | 24.6No. 85 | 35.6No. 125 | NR | NR |
| 112 | Coastal CarolinaSun Belt · 1-3 | -11.4 | +125000 | ↓ 3 | 22.8No. 96 | 34.1No. 119 | NR | NR |
| 113 | Kennesaw StateCUSA · 1-3 | -11.7 | — | — | 20.1No. 108 | 31.3No. 103 | NR | NR |
| 114 | HawaiiMWC · 1-3 | -12.2 | — | ↓ 16 | 19.8No. 111 | 32.2No. 109 | NR | NR |
| 115 | MarshallSun Belt · 3-1 | -12.5 | +400000 | ↓ 5 | 25.2No. 82 | 37.7No. 134 | NR | NR |
| 116 | WyomingMWC · 2-2 | -12.7 | — | ↑ 2 | 15.1No. 126 | 27.6No. 81 | NR | NR |
| 117 | Sam HoustonCUSA · 1-3 | -14.1 | — | ↑ 4 | 19.1No. 114 | 32.8No. 114 | NR | NR |
| 118 | UABAAC · 2-2 | -14.3 | — | ↑ 5 | 18.9No. 116 | 33No. 115 | NR | NR |
| 119 | RiceAAC · 1-3 | -15.1 | +125000 | ↓ 3 | 18.5No. 119 | 33.6No. 117 | NR | NR |
| 120 | San Jose StateMWC · 2-2 | -15.1 | +125000 | ↓ 5 | 16.6No. 125 | 31.5No. 105 | NR | NR |
| 121 | South AlabamaSun Belt · 2-2 | -15.4 | +125000 | ↓ 10 | 23.9No. 89 | 38.8No. 136 | NR | NR |
| 122 | Middle TennesseeCUSA · 2-2 | -16 | +125000 | ↑ 3 | 18No. 123 | 34No. 118 | NR | NR |
| 123 | Western KentuckyCUSA · 1-3 | -16.4 | — | ↓ 1 | 20.2No. 107 | 36.8No. 131 | NR | NR |
| 124 | BuffaloMAC · 2-2 | -17.2 | +100000 | ↓ 4 | 14.5No. 129 | 32.1No. 107 | NR | NR |
| 125 | Missouri StateCUSA · 1-3 | -17.6 | — | ↓ 1 | 18.7No. 118 | 35.9No. 128 | NR | NR |
| 126 | New Mexico StateCUSA · 1-3 | -17.8 | — | ↓ 7 | 18.1No. 122 | 35.7No. 126 | NR | NR |
| 127 | Eastern MichiganMAC · 2-3 | -18 | — | ↓ 1 | 15No. 127 | 32.7No. 111 | NR | NR |
| 128 | Southern MissSun Belt · 1-3 | -18.4 | — | ↓ 1 | 19No. 115 | 37.1No. 132 | NR | NR |
| 129 | Central MichiganMAC · 2-2 | -18.7 | +125000 | ↓ 12 | 12.7No. 136 | 31.1No. 100 | NR | NR |
| 130 | Kent StateMAC · 2-2 | -22.4 | — | ↑ 7 | 13.4No. 132 | 35.4No. 123 | NR | NR |
| 131 | Sacramento StateMAC · 1-4 | -22.9 | — | ↑ 2 | 12.8No. 134 | 35.5No. 124 | NR | NR |
| 132 | AkronMAC · 1-3 | -23.1 | — | — | 14No. 130 | 36.6No. 130 | NR | NR |
| 133 | Northern IllinoisMWC · | -23.9 | — | ↓ 4 | 12.8No. 133 | 36.4No. 129 | NR | NR |
| 134 | UTEPMWC · 1-3 | -24 | — | ↓ 4 | 14.7No. 128 | 38.3No. 135 | NR | NR |
| 135 | Ball StateMAC · 1-3 | -25 | — | ↑ 1 | 12.8No. 135 | 37.5No. 133 | NR | NR |
| 136 | Bowling GreenMAC · | -26.4 | — | ↓ 2 | 9.2No. 138 | 35.7No. 127 | NR | NR |
| 137 | CharlotteAAC · | -27.3 | — | ↓ 2 | 12.2No. 137 | 39.2No. 137 | NR | NR |
| 138 | UL-MonroeSun Belt · | -29 | — | — | 13.8No. 131 | 42.3No. 138 | NR | NR |
No teams match these filters.
Title odds · retrieved Sep 29 · 4:27 pm ET. Feed updated 2026-09-29. Source: CLEATZ CFB title odds feed. Missing quotes stay blank. Title odds are market context, not an SP+ championship probability.
Change compares rank with the previous source week. SP+ is points above or below an average FBS team on a neutral field. Published game projections can include adjustments beyond a simple rating difference.
PERCEPTION CHECK
SP+ versus the voters
Poll gaps describe a disagreement about rank. They do not establish value at a sportsbook.
Boise State
25 placesSP+ No. 47 · One ranked poll 22
Ole Miss
21.5 placesSP+ No. 32 · Average poll rank 10.5
Kentucky
20 placesSP+ No. 44 · One ranked poll 24
Oklahoma State
16 placesSP+ No. 35 · One ranked poll 19
Duke
13 placesSP+ No. 34 · One ranked poll 21
Houston
10 placesSP+ No. 30 · Average poll rank 20
Polls: AP Week 5 (2026-09-27) Coaches Week 5 (2026-09-27) via ESPN rankings. Unranked teams receive no invented rank. If only one poll ranks a team, only that poll is used.
TRACKED FROM INSTALLATION
A record we can inspect
Upcoming comparisons are saved before kickoff. Results use the last saved pregame snapshot and its exact book, line and price.
No graded results yet125 captured games · 0 graded at a 2+ point gap
The recorded sample uses the final saved pregame gap of at least 2 points. Earlier qualifying gaps can fall below that threshold. No retrospective source-line results are counted. This is a tracking rule, not a validated betting strategy. Final scores are checked against ESPN; unresolved games remain ungraded.
Inspect recent captures
| Game | Saved comparison | Captured | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose State at Hawaii | Hawaii · 2.4 ptsDraftKings · Hawaii −3 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Cincinnati at Arizona | Cincinnati · 3 ptsDraftKings · Arizona −7 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Baylor at Arizona State | Baylor · 6.7 ptsDraftKings · Arizona State −4 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Texas State at San Diego State | San Diego State · 1.1 ptsDraftKings · Texas State −4.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Fresno State at Washington State | Fresno State · 9.1 ptsDraftKings · Washington State −2.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette | UL-Lafayette · 2.5 ptsDraftKings · UL-Lafayette −6.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Indiana at Rutgers | Indiana · 1.5 ptsDraftKings · Indiana −24.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Temple at USF | USF · 6 ptsDraftKings · USF −6.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Texas Tech at Colorado | Texas Tech · 8.5 ptsDraftKings · Texas Tech −12.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Army at Louisiana Tech | Army · 4 ptsDraftKings · Army −2.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Utah State at Boise State | Utah State · 1 ptsDraftKings · Boise State −20.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Washington at USC | Washington · 1.3 ptsDraftKings · USC −9.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Miami-FL at Clemson | Miami-FL · 1.8 ptsDraftKings · Miami-FL −16.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Arkansas at Texas A&M | Arkansas · 2.3 ptsDraftKings · Texas A&M −14 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| UL-Monroe at South Alabama | South Alabama · 2.1 ptsDraftKings · South Alabama −14 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina · 2.2 ptsDraftKings · Georgia Southern −2.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| BYU at TCU | TCU · 0.9 ptsDraftKings · BYU −6.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| UTSA at Rice | UTSA · 0.1 ptsDraftKings · UTSA −11.5 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Oregon State at Colorado State | No difference · 0 ptsDraftKings · Oregon State −6 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
| Purdue at Illinois | Illinois · 7.5 ptsDraftKings · Illinois −10 | Sep 29 · 4:37 pm ET | Pregame · can update |
Sources, calculation and updates
SP+ belongs to Bill Connelly. CLEATZ imports the FBS ratings and published game projections, matches available sportsbook lines, calculates differences, and tracks snapshots. CLEATZ does not claim to have built the underlying SP+ model.
The signed comparison is the home-team sportsbook spread minus the home-team projected spread. A positive result points toward the home team; a negative result points toward the away team. For example, a projected home spread of −7 versus an available −3.5 produces a 3.5-point difference toward the home team.
Source checks run hourly through WordPress cron. Current odds are read from the existing CLEATZ Game Odds cache and must have been retrieved within 15 minutes. A recent cache retrieval does not guarantee every quote is still available. Missing quotes stay missing. Games whose scheduled kickoff has passed are excluded from upcoming signals.
The source’s projected winner probability is an outright win probability, not a spread-cover probability. Championship prices appear in the rankings table via the existing CLEATZ title-odds feed, checked every 30 minutes. See the full CFB title odds board.
What is the SP+ CFB Ranking?
In the world of CFB analytics rankings, SP+ stands alone. SP+ is the college football equivalent of KenPom rankings. Developed by Bill Connelly, it is a predictive measure of team efficiency. Unlike the AP Poll or the Committee Rankings, which are “resume-based” and reward who you beat, SP+ is “performance-based.” It doesn’t care if you won by 1 on a fluke fumble; it cares how well you played on a per-play basis.
The system is derived from five primary factors:
- Success Rate: Are you staying “on schedule”?
- Explosiveness: How many “big plays” are you generating?
- Field Position: The hidden yardage battle.
- Finishing Drives: Converting yards into points.
- Turnovers: The most volatile, yet impactful, stat.
Mathematically, the rating represents how many points better (or worse) a team is than the average FBS team. For example, if a team has an Overall SP+ of $+25.0$, they would be favored by 25 points over an average opponent on a neutral field.
Why it diverges from the AP Poll: The AP Poll is a beauty contest; SP+ is a calculator. Voters often overrate teams with “clean” records against weak schedules. SP+ strips away the fluff, adjusting for every opponent and every tempo, often revealing “paper tigers” long before the playoff committee does.
How accurate is SP+ at Predicting CFP teams?
Critics often point to “weird” rankings, but historical data shows that the SP+ Top 5 in August almost always produces at least two Playoff participants.
| Season | SP+ Top 5 Accuracy | Correct CFP Teams in Top 10 |
| 2025 | 80% (4 of 5) | 9 of 12 |
| 2024 | 60% (3 of 5) | 8 of 12 |
| 2023 | 75% (3 of 4) | 3 of 4 (4-team era) |
| 2022 | 100% (4 of 4) | 4 of 4 (4-team era) |
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ and has worked in the online sports betting industry since 2012. At CLEATZ, he focuses on public betting data, sportsbook line movement, prediction markets and data-driven sports betting tools.
