A new player may be about to enter the U.S. prediction market arms race, and this one has serious backing.
Rothera, the Robinhood and Susquehanna-backed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, appears to be moving toward the launch of sports event contracts. A filing screenshot circulating on X shows a “Baseball Outcome Event Contract” with an intended listing date on or after May 20, 2026. The contract description is simple but important: It would be based on whether a baseball team wins a specific baseball game.
That may sound basic. It is not.
If Rothera launches sports prediction markets at scale, it could become one of the most serious threats yet to Kalshi, Polymarket, OG.com, and other platforms trying to dominate event-contract trading in the United States.
Robinhood already has the distribution. Susquehanna brings market-making muscle. Rothera brings regulated exchange and clearing infrastructure. Put those together, and the prediction market landscape could change fast.
Quick Take: What Is Rothera?
Rothera is a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse tied to Robinhood’s broader push into prediction markets. Rothera says it is “building markets for the new trading frontier” and describes itself as a prediction market project built in partnership with Robinhood and Susquehanna, two major financial trading firms.
Rothera’s own site says the company is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and holds registrations as a Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, with a dormant Swap Execution Facility registration as well.
That matters because prediction markets in the U.S. are not just apps with odds boards. The platforms that list and clear these contracts need regulatory infrastructure. Kalshi, for example, operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange. Rothera appears designed to give Robinhood and Susquehanna their own regulated venue instead of relying only on third-party exchanges.
Rothera Promo Code and Sign-Up Offer
Rothera Promo Code: Coming Soon
Once Rothera or Robinhood announces a new-user offer, this section should be updated immediately.
Potential offer formats could include:
| Possible Bonus Type | Example Placeholder |
|---|---|
| Free Contract Credit | Get $TBD in trading credit |
| Deposit Match | Deposit $, get $ |
| Referral Bonus | Invite a friend and earn $TBD |
| First Trade Bonus | Place your first event-contract trade and receive $TBD |
| Robinhood Integration Offer | Eligible Robinhood users get $TBD for trying prediction markets |
Editor’s note: Prediction market bonuses can change quickly. Always check the current offer terms before signing up or placing trades.
Why Rothera Matters
The most important thing about Rothera is not that it may list baseball contracts.
The important thing is who is behind it.
Robinhood has already shown that prediction markets can become a major engagement product inside a mainstream trading app. In its 2025 annual filing, Robinhood said event contracts are offered through its futures commission merchant license and described prediction markets as a way for customers to engage with sports, politics, economics, culture, and other real-world events. The company also said it established Rothera with Susquehanna to build out an independent CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse.
Robinhood’s Q4 2025 filing said more than 12 billion event contracts traded in 2025 and specifically identified prediction markets as part of its active-trader expansion.
That is the key unlock. Robinhood does not need to convince people to download a niche prediction market app. It already has millions of financially active users. If Rothera markets are eventually integrated into Robinhood’s existing product experience, the company could put prediction contracts directly in front of traders who already understand buying, selling, spreads, order books, and event-driven trading.
The Robinhood and Susquehanna Connection
Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group moved into this structure by acquiring control of MIAX Derivatives Exchange. Reuters reported in November 2025 that Robinhood and Susquehanna agreed to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, a regulated exchange operated by Miami International Holdings, with MIAX retaining a 10% stake.
Robinhood later said the joint venture closed its acquisition of MIAXdx on Jan. 20, 2026.
The CFTC’s Designated Contract Market listing now shows Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC as designated, and notes that after a Jan. 20, 2026 corporate transaction, LedgerX LLC, doing business as MIAX Derivatives Exchange or MIAXdx, changed its legal name to Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC.
That gives Rothera a serious regulatory foundation before it even launches a consumer-facing prediction market product.
Why Susquehanna Is a Big Deal
Susquehanna is not just a passive brand name in this story.
Prediction markets need liquidity. It is not enough to list contracts. A market needs tight spreads, depth, fast repricing, and reliable fills. That is where professional market makers matter.
Ryan Glasspiegel’s post framed the threat clearly: Susquehanna already does a lot of market-making on prediction market platforms, and a meaningful amount of Kalshi order flow has reportedly come through Robinhood. If Rothera brings that order flow and market-making closer together under one regulated umbrella, Kalshi and Polymarket may face a much more vertically integrated competitor.
That is the central Rothera bull case: Robinhood has the users, Susquehanna has the trading infrastructure, and Rothera has the exchange-and-clearing setup.
What Was Self-Certified?
The screenshot shared by Geoff Zochodne and amplified by Ryan Glasspiegel shows a Rothera filing titled:
Certification of Baseball Outcome Event Contract Submission Pursuant to Commission Regulation 40.2(a)
The table in the filing identifies:
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Contract Name | Baseball Outcome Event Contract |
| Description | Based on whether a baseball team wins a baseball game |
| Contract Type | Swap |
| Listing Date | On or after May 20, 2026 |
In plain English, this appears to be a simple game-outcome market: Team A wins or Team B wins.
That is the same core concept that has driven massive sports betting volume for decades, except the regulatory wrapper is different. Instead of a sportsbook posting fixed odds, event contracts trade as market prices that move as buyers and sellers take positions.
What Is Self-Certification?
Self-certification is one way CFTC-regulated exchanges list new contracts. In general terms, an exchange submits the contract terms and certifies that the product complies with applicable rules. If the CFTC does not object before the specified listing date, the contract can generally go live, though that does not mean the agency has formally “approved” the contract in the way many casual readers might assume.
That distinction matters. A self-certified contract is not the same thing as a press release saying “the CFTC approved sports betting on Rothera.” It means the exchange is using the regulatory process available to designated contract markets.
That nuance will matter even more as states, sports leagues, sportsbooks, and federal regulators continue fighting over where prediction markets fit in the broader wagering and derivatives landscape.
Rothera vs. Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Rothera is not launching into an empty field. Kalshi and Polymarket have already built enormous awareness in prediction markets.
But Rothera’s structure is different enough to be dangerous.
| Platform | Core Angle | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Rothera | Robinhood/Susquehanna-backed CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse | Potential distribution through Robinhood plus institutional market-making support |
| Kalshi | CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange | Strong U.S. regulatory positioning and broad event-contract menu |
| Polymarket | Crypto-native prediction market brand | Massive global mindshare and deep political/event market liquidity |
| Crypto.com | CFTC-regulated event-contract push | Existing app distribution and crypto-native user base |
| ForecastEx | Event contract exchange used in some broker integrations | Institutional/regulatory infrastructure angle |
Kalshi has the early regulated U.S. brand advantage. Polymarket has the cultural mindshare. Robinhood has mainstream retail distribution.
That last point is why Rothera could matter so much.
Why This Could Threaten Kalshi
Kalshi’s biggest advantage has been regulatory legitimacy. It fought early, built the exchange infrastructure, and became the best-known CFTC-regulated prediction market brand in the U.S.
But Rothera could pressure Kalshi on three fronts:
1. Distribution
Robinhood can surface prediction markets to users who already trade stocks, options, crypto, futures, and event contracts. That is a massive customer acquisition advantage.
2. Pricing and Liquidity
Susquehanna’s involvement could help Rothera offer tighter, more liquid markets. In prediction markets, better liquidity can become a flywheel. Tighter spreads attract more traders, more traders attract more liquidity, and more liquidity attracts more sophisticated volume.
3. Economics
Robinhood’s Q1 2026 earnings presentation said the company was getting ready for a Q2 launch of Rothera and that vertical integration would give it greater control over the end-to-end experience, including product selection and pricing.
That is a direct strategic signal. Robinhood does not just want to route users into prediction markets. It wants more control over the markets themselves.
| # | Category | Volume | Distribution | vs Prior Period |
|---|
Why This Could Threaten Polymarket
Polymarket is the brand most associated with political and global event prediction markets, but its U.S. positioning has been complicated. Rothera’s edge is that it appears built specifically for the regulated U.S. market from day one.
If Rothera can offer sports, politics, economic data, culture, and other event markets through a mainstream brokerage interface, it could bring prediction markets to users who would never touch a crypto wallet or offshore-feeling platform.
That does not mean Polymarket disappears. It does mean Rothera could attack the most valuable U.S. user segment: mainstream, mobile-first traders who want a simple app experience.
Baseball Could Be the Perfect Test Market
Baseball is an interesting first sports category because it offers volume, frequency, and clean outcomes.
An MLB season creates a massive number of daily games. That means a Rothera baseball outcome market could quickly test:
| Test Area | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Liquidity | Can the market handle daily sports volume? |
| Pricing | Do spreads stay tight compared to sportsbooks and other prediction markets? |
| User behavior | Do Robinhood-style traders engage with daily sports contracts? |
| Compliance | Can sports outcome contracts survive ongoing regulatory scrutiny? |
| Market design | Are contracts simple enough for casual users but robust enough for active traders? |
For users, the appeal is obvious. A contract priced at 57 cents implies the market thinks the outcome has roughly a 57% chance of happening before fees and other trading frictions. If the outcome hits, the contract pays out at $1. If not, it expires at $0.
That simplicity is why prediction markets can feel more intuitive than traditional American odds.
How Rothera Sports Contracts May Work
Based on the baseball screensho show earlier, a basic Rothera sports contract could look something like this:
| Example | Possible Market Format |
|---|---|
| Dodgers vs. Giants | Will the Dodgers win this game? |
| Yankees vs. Red Sox | Will the Yankees win this game? |
| Cubs vs. Cardinals | Will the Cubs win this game? |
A “Yes” contract might trade at 62 cents. A trader buying at 62 cents would risk 62 cents to win 38 cents if the contract settles at $1. A trader selling or buying “No” would be taking the opposite side.
This is not identical to a sportsbook moneyline, but the overlap is obvious. A heavily favored team would trade closer to $1. A big underdog would trade closer to $0.
What States Will Rothera Be Available In?
That is one of the biggest open questions.
CFTC-regulated event contracts are federally regulated derivatives products, but sports event contracts have triggered pushback from state gaming regulators and sports betting interests. The regulatory question is whether these products should be treated like federally regulated swaps/event contracts, state-regulated sports betting, or something else entirely.
Robinhood currently describes event contracts as offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a registered futures commission merchant and swap firm, and includes risk language stating that futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone.
For Rothera, state availability may depend on how Robinhood, Rothera, the CFTC, state regulators, and courts handle the ongoing jurisdiction battle.
Key State Availability Details (As of May 2026):
- General Availability: All 50 states + D.C. (Economic/Political).
- Sports Restriction Areas: Maryland, New Jersey, Nevada.
- Platform Access: Must have a Robinhood brokerage account and be approved for a Robinhood Derivatives account.
- Age Requirement: Generally 18+
Why Sportsbooks Should Be Watching
If Rothera launches baseball markets through Robinhood, sportsbook operators should pay attention.
Sportsbooks have historically controlled U.S. sports wagering through state-by-state licensing, fixed-odds markets, promotional offers, and high hold percentages. Prediction markets attack that model differently.
Instead of DraftKings or FanDuel setting a moneyline, traders buy and sell contracts against each other. Market makers and other participants help create liquidity. Prices move continuously based on supply, demand, and new information.
That could create more transparent pricing and potentially tighter markets for certain high-volume events. It could also create a very different acquisition funnel. A Robinhood user who has never opened a sportsbook account might still be willing to trade a baseball outcome contract inside the same app where they already buy stocks or options.
The Bigger Prediction Market Race
Rothera is part of a much larger shift. Major financial firms, crypto platforms, and brokerages are all circling prediction markets because the category sits at the intersection of trading, sports, politics, news, and real-time entertainment.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has described prediction markets as entering a “supercycle,” with the company planning to expand further through Rothera.
That kind of language tells us how Robinhood sees the category. This is not a side experiment. It is a potential new asset class, a retention tool, and a way to keep active traders engaged around real-world events every day of the week.
What To Watch Next
Rothera’s launch could move quickly if the self-certified contract process proceeds without interruption. The key things to monitor:
| Watch Item | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 listing date | The screenshot indicates baseball contracts could list on or after this date |
| Robinhood integration | Distribution inside Robinhood would instantly change the scale |
| Market liquidity | Tight spreads would make Rothera more competitive |
| State pushback | Sports contracts may trigger regulatory disputes |
| Promo offers | A launch bonus could accelerate user adoption |
| Contract menu | Baseball may be the first test before broader sports markets |
| Kalshi response | Kalshi may need to defend liquidity, pricing, and user acquisition |
Bottom Line: Rothera Could Be the Most Serious Kalshi Competitor Yet
Rothera is not just another prediction market startup.
It is a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse tied to Robinhood and Susquehanna. That combination gives it three things most prediction market competitors would love to have: distribution, liquidity expertise, and regulatory infrastructure.
If Rothera’s baseball event contracts go live, they may start with a simple question: will this team win this game?
But the bigger question is much more interesting:
What happens when Robinhood, one of the most powerful retail trading platforms in the country, gets deeper control over the prediction market stack?
Kalshi and Polymarket are not going away. But Rothera could force both to compete harder on liquidity, pricing, user experience, and promotions.
For traders, that could mean more markets, better prices, and more ways to trade real-world events. For sportsbooks, it could mean a new kind of competitor. And for the prediction market industry, it could be the clearest sign yet that event contracts are moving from niche product to mainstream trading category.
Compliance Disclaimer
Prediction market trading involves risk and may not be suitable for everyone. Event contracts can expire worthless. This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or gambling advice. Availability, eligibility, contract terms, fees, and promotional offers may vary by platform and jurisdiction.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
