Early look at Week 0 and Week 1 betting splits on DraftKings — and what they tell us about where the smart money is hiding.
College football is still months away, but the betting market is already talking. We pulled the latest DraftKings public splits for seven marquee openers across Week 0 and Week 1 of the 2026 season, and the picture is fascinating. In almost every game, the handle (the dollars) and the bets (the ticket count) are telling different stories.
That gap is the whole ballgame.
Quick primer: When one side has a much bigger share of the handle than of the tickets, it usually means a smaller number of larger wagers are landing there. That’s the classic fingerprint of sharp action — pros and syndicates betting bigger than the average Saturday-morning parlay player. A 10%+ gap between handle and tickets is the working threshold most analysts use. Want to watch this live? Our CFB Public Betting Money tracker updates throughout the day.
Here’s what jumped out.
1. North Carolina at TCU — Saturday, 8/29 in Dublin 🇮🇪
Line: TCU -6.5 | O/U 49.5 | TCU -238 / UNC +195
TCU is getting 72% of the handle vs. 77% of the spread bets. That’s not a sharp signal; it’s a public signal. Squares like Sonny Dykes’s Frogs as a touchdown favorite in the Aer Lingus Classic, and the money is roughly in line with the ticket count.
The more interesting market here is the total. Over 49.5 is getting 76% of bets but only 59% of the handle — a textbook “lots of small Over tickets, but the bigger wagers are leaning Under.” Bill Belichick is entering Year 2 in Chapel Hill after a rough 4-8 debut and a full offensive coordinator overhaul (Bobby Petrino in, Freddie Kitchens out). The Under is where the quieter money sits.
Cleatz read: No edge on the side. Lean Under 49.5 if you’re playing.
2. NC State at Virginia — Saturday, 8/29 in Rio de Janeiro
Line: Virginia -3 | O/U 53.5 | Virginia -148 / NC State +124
This is the one that lit up our sharp-money filter. NC State +3 has 87% of the handle but only 70% of the bets, a 17-point gap. That’s a serious “money over tickets” signal on the Wolfpack getting the points in Brazil.
Even weirder, on the moneyline, NC State is sitting at 98% of the handle but only 46% of the tickets. Because it is so early, a small number of bettors are firing meaningful dollars on the Pack to win outright as a +124 underdog. Whether that’s smart money or one whale, the market is screaming.
Cleatz read: Sharps are on NC State. The line could move toward +2.5 or PK by kickoff, get there first if you agree.
| Game | Team / Side | Handle | Bets | Early Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State vs. Virginia | NC State +3 | 87% | 70% | Wolfpack drawing both public and bigger-money support |
| Clemson at LSU | Clemson +10.5 | 70% | 47% | Classic dog-with-handle signal |
| Baylor vs. Auburn | Auburn -6.5 | 94% | 72% | Heavy early support on the favorite |
| Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin | Notre Dame -20.5 | 90% | 60% | Bettors not scared of the massive number |
| Louisville at Ole Miss | Ole Miss -7 | 85% | 57% | Rebels getting a strong money lean |
| SMU at Florida State | SMU -2.5 | 72% | 43% | One of the more interesting handle gaps |
| North Carolina vs. TCU | TCU -6.5 | 72% | 77% | More public-heavy than sharp-looking |
3. Clemson at LSU — Saturday, 9/5 in Baton Rouge
Line: LSU -10.5 | O/U 50.5 | LSU -455 / Clemson +350
Per CBS Sports’ way-too-early Week 1 preview, this is the largest spread Clemson has faced as a season-opening underdog since the 2024 Georgia game. The split tells you why the public is hesitant: Clemson +10.5 has 70% of the handle but only 47% of the bets, a massive 23-point gap, and DraftKings’ system flagged it as a sharp signal.
The moneyline is the inverse: LSU is taking 94% of the bets to win outright (no kidding, they’re -455), but only 62% of the handle. Squares are paying through the nose for the chalk while sharps quietly buy 10.5 points with Dabo’s bunch.
This is also the most-watched coaching debut of the opening weekend. Lane Kiffin bolted Ole Miss for LSU on November 30, 2025, and didn’t coach the Rebels through their CFP run to replace the fired Brian Kelly. His seven-year, $91 million contract and the Sam Leavitt transfer from Arizona State have Baton Rouge expecting fireworks. Clemson, meanwhile, has lost three straight openers.
Cleatz read: This is the clearest sharp play on the board. Clemson +10.5 has the money behind it.
4. Baylor at Auburn — Saturday, 9/5 in Atlanta
Line: Auburn -6.5 | O/U 59.5 | Auburn -265 / Baylor +215
Auburn is getting 94% of the handle and 72% of the bets on the spread, a 22-point gap, but in the opposite direction from what you usually want. The handle is way higher than the tickets on the favorite, which means big bettors are also stacking Auburn -6.5. When both the public and the money agree, it’s not a sharp signal; it’s a consensus play.
The Over 59.5 is also drawing 84% of the handle vs. 57% of the bets. Sharps appear to like Auburn to score, score, and score some more in Alex Golesh’s debut after Auburn fired Hugh Freeze on November 2, 2025 and hired the USF coach to take over on the Plains.
Cleatz read: Lean Over 59.5, mthe money is louder than the ticket count there. The spread is too crowded to chase.
5. Notre Dame at Wisconsin — Sunday, 9/6 in Green Bay
Line: Notre Dame -20.5 | O/U 47.5 | ND -2100 / Wisconsin +1100
A 20.5-point spread between Power 4 programs in Week 1 is wild, and the splits show why books set it that big. Notre Dame -20.5 has 90% of the handle and 60% of the bets. Squares are hesitant to lay three touchdowns on the road in Green Bay; sharps don’t have the same problem.
But here’s the contrarian wrinkle here on the moneyline, 78% of bets are on Notre Dame to win at -2100… while only 15% of the handle is there. The other 85% of the handle is on Wisconsin +1100. That’s not a “Wisconsin wins” bet, it’s a tiny-stakes lottery ticket from a handful of bettors. Don’t read it as sharp money on the upset.
It’s also worth noting Notre Dame is outpacing the SEC in the 2026 futures market, a soft schedule narrative the prediction markets have already priced in.
Cleatz read: Notre Dame -20.5 has the sharp lean. If you want a sweat with less variance, look at the team total.
6. Louisville at Ole Miss — Sunday, 9/6 in Nashville
Line: Ole Miss -7 | O/U 53.5 | Ole Miss -270 / Louisville +220
Pete Golding’s Rebels are getting 85% of the handle on the spread but only 57% of the bets. A 28-point gap is one of the loudest signals on the entire board. Even bigger: on the Under 53.5, the handle is 91% vs. just 20% of bets. A handful of bettors are pounding Under, hard.
That combination, heavy money on the favorite and the Under, is what pros call a “low-scoring blowout” signal. The market is pricing in Ole Miss controlling the clock and the scoreboard. That’s notable given the offensive coordinator question marks in Oxford after Charlie Weis Jr. followed Kiffin to Baton Rouge, yet the market still trusts the program Golding inherited.
Cleatz read: Ole Miss -7 and Under 53.5 are both quietly sharp sides. Worth a look.
7. SMU at Florida State — Monday, 9/7
Line: SMU -2.5 | O/U 52.5 | SMU -142 / FSU +120
SMU -2.5 has 72% of the handle vs. 43% of the bets, a 29-point gap, the biggest spread differential on our entire board. Squares are siding with Florida State at home after two straight rough seasons; sharps don’t care about narrative.
Even more telling: on the moneyline, SMU has 41% of the handle but 56% of the tickets, the inverse split that confirms the spread money. Pros are getting the 2.5 with SMU instead of paying the -142 juice.
Cleatz read: SMU -2.5 has clear sharp backing. The DraftKings dashboard agrees.
What to Do With All This
A few ground rules before you fire anything:
- Splits are a compass, not a map. They help you spot where to slow down — not where to blindly bet.
- These numbers will move. It’s May. Some of these games don’t have spring depth charts yet, let alone Week 1 injury reports. Check our CFB Public Betting Money tracker for the latest.
- Bet responsibly. Sharps lose plenty of bets too. If you or someone you know needs help, the National Council on Problem Gambling runs a 24/7 helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
The Week 0 kickoff in Dublin is officially 109 days away. The market’s already showing its hand.
Splits sourced from DraftKings, captured 5/12/2026. Want us to track a specific game? Drop us a line.
Keep reading:
- Schedule vs. Skill: Why Notre Dame is Outpacing the SEC in the Futures Market
- College Football Championship Odds Tracker
- Latest SP+ Rankings
- College Football Player Prop Picks
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
