What is Kalshi, and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market, the first of its kind in the United States, operating under direct oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Unlike a sportsbook, you are not betting against the house. You are trading event contracts on an open market, against other traders.
Every contract on Kalshi is priced between $0.01 and $1.00, where the price represents the market’s implied probability that an event will happen. A contract trading at $0.65 means the market believes there is roughly a 65% chance the outcome occurs. If you think the real probability is higher, say 80%, buying at $0.65 gives you an edge.
Example:
A contract asks: “Will the Fed cut rates in June?” It’s trading at $0.42 (42% implied probability). You believe a cut is more likely, closer to 60%. You buy 100 shares at $0.42, risking $42. If the Fed cuts rates, each share settles at $1.00, and you collect $100 — a $58 profit. If they hold, the contract settles at $0.00 and you lose your $42.
What makes a good Kalshi trade
The entire game is finding situations where the market’s implied probability is wrong. Public narratives, news cycles, and herd behavior routinely distort prices on Kalshi, especially in political, economic, and sports markets. Liquidity matters too: tighter markets (smaller bid-ask spread) mean less slippage when entering and exiting. Shorter time-to-resolution keeps your capital free to compound across multiple trades.
Kalshi is available in most U.S. states and requires identity verification (SSN + government ID) to comply with CFTC regulations. Minimum deposit is $1.
Kalshi Promo Code Overview (July 2026)
| Feature | Details |
| Best Kalshi Referral Code | CLEATZ10 |
| Welcome Bonus | $10 Trading Credit (After initial trade) |
| Minimum Deposit | $1 |
| Legality | 100% U.S. Regulated (CFTC) |
| Available States | All U.S. States (Except AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, OH) |
| Withdrawal Method | ACH Transfer, Wire, or Credit/Debit Card |
| Verification Required | Yes (SSN & Government ID) |
| Information Last Verified | August 04, 2026 |
*Kalshi Disclaimer: Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it’s appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Prices may not be live and are subject to change. See http://kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Federally regulated event contract exchange. Users over the age of 18 are able to register and trade.
Unlike older codes found on Reddit, CLEATZ10 has been verified as working for May 2026. When you sign up with our promo code, you receive:
- A new‑user trading bonus (applied after your first trade)
- Access to all regulated U.S. prediction markets
- The ability to trade event contracts with no sportsbook vig
Use Kalshi referral code CLEATZ10 to unlock the top new‑user bonus and start trading real‑money prediction markets the smart way.
This is the most complete, up‑to‑date guide to Kalshi you’ll find anywhere. We’ll cover:
- What Kalshi is (and why it matters)
- Exactly how the CLEATZ10 referral bonus works
- How Kalshi compares to Polymarket (fees, legality, liquidity, payouts)
- Smart strategies to maximize value on Kalshi markets
- Why Kalshi is rapidly disrupting traditional sportsbooks
How to Sign Up With A Kalshi Promo Code
Time needed: 3 minutes
- Visit Kalshi’s official signup page
- Create your account
- Enter CLEATZ10 in the referral code field
- Complete identity verification (required by law)
- Fund your account
- Place your first trade
Your bonus is applied automatically once eligibility is met.
Trending Kalshi Markets & News Today
Trending Kalshi Markets — Saturday, July 11, 2026 — Last updated 8:40 AM MT
Top markets today: Haaland vs. Kane in Miami, the perps war with CME & the New York fallout
A quarterfinal doubleheader, an escalating derivatives war with the world’s largest exchange, and the continuing New York fallout—Saturday’s board is one of the densest of the summer. If you’re signing up with Kalshi referral code [CLEATZ10], here are the top markets moving the exchange today. For a full cross-platform comparison, see our best prediction market apps guide.
Market 1
⚽ 2026 FIFA World Cup: the quarterfinal blockbuster Doubleheader
Soccer handle is completely anchoring the sports side of the exchange, drawing an ocean of transatlantic capital ahead of the opening whistle—with the semifinal field completing tonight after Spain’s late 2–1 win over Belgium booked the first Bastille Day date with France. Full pricing on our World Cup odds page; live money flow on our World Cup public betting splits.
Traders are heavily backing the Three Lions, with England to advance priced at a confident 65¢ and Erling Haaland’s much-improved, Brazil-slaying Norway a live underdog in the mid-30s. The subplot is the whole show: two of the four Golden Boot contenders meet in a knockout, so either Haaland (seven goals) or Harry Kane leaves the race tonight. In the striker props, Kane to score trades neck-and-neck at 51% against Haaland’s highly competitive 47%—with England missing the suspended Jarell Quansah in defense. Cross-reference the money split on our public betting splits.
The defending champions close the quarterfinal round against a Swiss side with four straight clean sheets and a shootout scalp (Colombia) already in the bag. Messi sits on eight goals—level with Mbappé but behind on the assist tiebreaker—and Argentina’s back-to-back escape acts keep the discount on the repeat even as the public money piles in. Winner faces England or Norway in Wednesday’s Atlanta semifinal. Track the bracket on our World Cup odds page, and compare cross-platform pricing on Polymarket.
Market 2
⚖️ Legal battle: the New York injunction fallout Patchwork Pricing
The major structural story moving macro capital this week remains the fallout from U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres’s denial of Kalshi’s preliminary-injunction motion against the New York State Gaming Commission.
Kalshi argued the Commodity Exchange Act grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over its contracts; the court disagreed, ruling that state consumer-protection and gambling laws aren’t preempted. With the immediate appeal now before the Second Circuit and the platform still fully functional for users, state-level regulatory risk contracts are fluctuating wildly as traders price the multi-front patchwork across New York, Illinois, and Massachusetts—plus Monday’s expiry of the Michigan TRO, the next hard date on the calendar. Cross-platform legal coverage on Polymarket, and for how emerging platforms navigate the same map, see our ROLR prediction market review.
Market 3
🏦 Exchange news: the war with CME over gold & FX perps $16.1B & Counting
Wall Street is reacting heavily to Kalshi’s expansion strategy: in a Reuters exclusive, chief risk officer Udesh Jha confirmed the platform is in advanced talks with regulators to expand its never-expiring futures (perpetuals) framework into gold, foreign exchange, and energy—with broad indexes and individual stocks eyed further out.
The move pushes Kalshi decisively beyond pure event contracts and into direct competition with CME Group, the world’s largest derivatives exchange. The battle lines are explicit: CME’s outgoing CEO Terry Duffy has called retail-accessible perps “a disaster waiting to happen,” and CME is suing the CFTC and Chairman Michael Selig over the original approvals—while Kalshi frames the push as democratizing markets long walled off behind institutional contract specs. The stakes are visible in the tape: crypto perps have cleared $16.1 billion since May, exchange-operator stocks (CME, Cboe, Nasdaq, ICE) sold off on the original approval, and Kalshi pegs the offshore perps market it wants to onshore at roughly $90 trillion a year. Whether the CME lawsuit slows non-crypto approvals is now itself the key structural question. Full landscape in our best prediction market apps guide.
Market 4
🏀 Pro basketball: Summer League & the Finals rematch Vegas Pivot
With standard league schedules in hibernation, basketball liquidity has pivoted to Las Vegas for the start of NBA Summer League—where the marquee matchup carries a familiar edge.
In a highly anticipated echo of the 2026 NBA Finals—which the Knicks took 4–1 as underdogs just last month—traders are heavily favoring the younger, deeper Texas squad’s summer roster at -133 (57%). Summer League pricing is its own discipline: rotations, minute limits, and two-way contract auditions matter more than franchise pedigree, which is why retail value-hunters are also driving steady “Yes” volume toward the Pacers (+122) and Lakers (+170)—the latter drawing extra eyeballs as the franchise resets post-LeBron. Track nightly player markets on our NBA player props page, and compare cross-platform on Polymarket.
Market 5
📊 Economics: the June inflation cliff CPI Week Ahead
Macro-hedging desks are locking positions ahead of next week’s crucial indicators—the first CPI print that will show whether June’s energy unwind bled into core services.
Traders hold an 87% consensus that the Federal Reserve maintains steady rates at the July 28–29 meeting—fully re-firmed after midweek wobbles—while the “Exactly 0 Cuts in 2026” contract sits frozen at 76% on sticky services inflation. After Wednesday’s hawkish minutes revealed some officials see a case for hikes, next week’s CPI is the one number that can move either wall. Compare Fed contracts on Polymarket.
What Is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a CFTC‑regulated prediction market exchange where users trade contracts on real‑world events instead of placing bets against a bookmaker.
Each contract settles at $1 or $0, depending on whether the event happens.
Example
- Market: Will Bitcoin close above $70,000 on Friday?
- YES contract price: $0.42
- If YES happens → contract settles at $1.00
- If NO happens → settles at $0.00
Your profit is the difference between what you paid and the final settlement.
This structure creates:
- Transparent odds
- No hidden vig
- True market‑driven pricing
Why Kalshi Is Different From Sportsbooks
Kalshi isn’t a sportsbook. It doesn’t set lines or shade odds.
Instead:
- Traders set prices
- You can buy or sell at any time
- Prices reflect true implied probability
Key Advantages
- No parlays, boosts, or gimmicks
- No limits for winning
- You can trade out early instead of riding bets to the end
For sharp bettors and macro traders, Kalshi is a game‑changer.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Full Comparison
| # | Platform | Revenue (30d) | Distribution | vs Prior Mo. |
|---|
This is where most people get confused, so let’s be very clear.
Regulation & Legality
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket Promo Code |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Legal | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes |
| Regulator | CFTC | CFTC |
| Available in U.S. | ✅ | ✅ – For some. Large waiting list |
| USD Banking | ✅ | ❌ |
Kalshi is the only fully legal, regulated prediction market available to ALL U.S. users.
Fees
Kalshi
- Low transaction fees
- No vig
- No withdrawal penalties
Polymarket
- Blockchain gas fees
- Slippage in low‑liquidity markets
- Hidden execution costs
For frequent traders, Kalshi is significantly cheaper.
Liquidity & Market Depth
Kalshi has:
- Institutional market makers
- Tight bid‑ask spreads
- Strong volume on major markets (Bitcoin, elections, macro, sports futures)
Polymarket liquidity varies wildly by market and time.
Ease of Use
Kalshi
- Clean web interface
- USD deposits
- Bank transfers & cards
- No crypto wallets required
Polymarket
- Requires crypto knowledge
- Wallet setup
- Token bridging
If you want simplicity, Kalshi wins easily.
Where is Kalshi Legal? (July 2026 State Guide)
Because Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange rather than a traditional sportsbook, it is technically available in all 50 U.S. states to users aged 18+. However, several states are currently challenging this federal preemption in court, leading to specific restrictions on sports-related contracts.
Fully Operational States
In most states, including those where traditional sports betting is illegal (like Texas and California), Kalshi is fully operational for all markets (Politics, Economics, Weather, and Sports).
- Key States: California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, New York, Pennsylvania, and 30+ others.
Restricted or Contested States
If you live in one of the following states, you may be able to sign up and trade macro/economic markets, but you may face “geofencing” (blocks) on specific sports-event contracts due to ongoing local litigation:
| State | Status | Restriction Detail |
| Massachusetts | Restricted | Preliminary injunction (Jan 2026) bars sports contracts. |
| Nevada | Restricted | Federal court ruled state gaming laws apply to sports events. (see the complaint) |
| Maryland | Contested | Active litigation; users may see limited sports availability. |
| New Jersey | Contested | State appealing a federal ruling that favored Kalshi. |
| Tennessee | Contested | Cease-and-desist issued; legal status currently in flux. |
| Connecticut | Contested | Active regulatory review of sports-related “event contracts.” |
Best Kalshi Markets to Trade (Beginner Friendly)
If you’re new, start here:
Crypto Price Ranges
- Bitcoin weekly closes
- Ethereum monthly ranges
These markets have:
- High liquidity
- Tight spreads
- Clear catalysts
Sports Futures
- Super Bowl winner
- MVP markets
- Season win totals
Kalshi futures often misprice public sentiment, creating value.
Political & Economic Markets
- Inflation prints
- Fed rate decisions
- Election outcomes
These attract professional traders and offer deep liquidity.
Smart Kalshi Trading Strategies
① Trade Probabilities, Not Opinions
If a YES contract is priced at $0.60, the market implies a 60% probability.
Ask yourself:
Is the true probability higher or lower?
That edge is your trade.
② Sell When the Market Overreacts
Breaking news creates emotional pricing.
Kalshi allows you to sell inflated contracts when the crowd panics.
③ Use Kalshi Instead of Sportsbooks
Many Kalshi sports markets:
- Beat sportsbook odds
- Have no vig
- Allow partial exits
Sharp bettors increasingly prefer Kalshi.
Why Kalshi Is Growing So Fast
Kalshi is pulling users from:
- Sportsbooks tired of limits
- Crypto traders wanting regulation
- Macro traders seeking simple event exposure
Key growth drivers:
- Legal clarity in the U.S.
- Institutional liquidity
- Simple user experience
This is not a fad. It’s infrastructure.
If you want:
- A legal U.S. prediction market
- Transparent odds
- No sportsbook tricks
- Real trading flexibility
Kalshi is the best option available today.
Kalshi FAQ
Yes, Kalshi is a fully regulated exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It is the first federally regulated prediction market in the United States, meaning your trades are governed by the same federal agency that oversees futures markets. Kalshi is not a sportsbook or offshore gambling site — it operates under a legal framework designed to protect retail traders.
Legally, no. Kalshi trades event contracts — binary outcomes priced as probabilities — under CFTC regulation. This is the same regulatory category as commodity futures, not gambling. That said, trading on Kalshi carries real financial risk, and outcomes are uncertain. Think of it less like placing a bet and more like trading a short-term futures contract on a real-world event. You can exit positions before settlement, which no sportsbook allows.
Kalshi uses referral codes rather than traditional promo codes. CLEATZ10 functions as both — it applies a new-user bonus automatically when you sign up through our link. There is no separate Kalshi promo code required.
Kalshi is available in most U.S. states. It is currently not available in Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, or Ohio. All other U.S. residents can sign up and trade legally under CFTC oversight.
The best Kalshi referral code is CLEATZ10. When you enter this code during signup, you qualify for a $10 trading credit once you complete your first $10 in trades. This is the highest verified bonus available for new users in April 2026.
Click Sign Up on the Kalshi app or website.
Follow the prompts until you reach the “Enter your birthday” or “Personal Details” screen.
Look for the text that says “Add referral code” (it is often a small clickable link).
Enter CLEATZ10 and finish your account verification.
Yes, but you must act quickly. Kalshi typically allows you to add a referral code for up to 72 hours after account creation, provided you have not yet made your first deposit.
On Mobile: Tap the “waffle” menu icon (top left) and select “Add Referral Code.”
On Web: Click your profile menu (top right) to find the entry field.
The most common reasons a promo code fails are:
Existing Account: You already have an account or have previously traded on Kalshi.
Restricted State: You are located in Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, or Ohio.
The $10 bonus is provided as site credit for trading. While you cannot withdraw the $10 credit directly, any profits you make from trades placed with that credit are 100% withdrawable as cash to your bank account.
Once you have traded at least $10 (or 100 contracts) on the platform, you will unlock your own unique referral link. You can find this in the “Invite Friends” section of the main menu. For every friend who signs up and trades $10, you can earn a $25 referral bonus, up to a maximum of $1,000 in total credits.
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Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
