College Football Props - Best Hit Rates This Week

🏈 CFB Most Bet TD Scorers & Player Props Today

1st TD Scorer 🎯
1️⃣ Justice Haynes
2️⃣ Jeremiyah Love
3️⃣ Drew Mestemaker

Anytime TD Scorer 🏆
1️⃣ Justice Haynes
2️⃣ John Mateer
3️⃣ Bryce Underwood

2+ TD Scorer 💥
1️⃣ Jeremiyah Love
2️⃣ Justice Haynes
3️⃣ John Mateer

Player Props 📊
1️⃣ John Mateer 2+ Pass TDs
2️⃣ Bryce Underwood 190+ Pass Yds
3️⃣ John Mateer 1+ Pass TD

– Data via DraftKings

🏈 CFB Saturday – 100% Prop Trends

💰ALT Lines
1️⃣ T. Walker: 30+ Rec Yds – 15/15
2️⃣ T. Merriweather: 5+ Rec Yds – 13/13
3️⃣ A. Hardy: 60+ Rush Yds – 12/12
4️⃣ B. Lewis: 25+ Rush Yds – 11/11
5️⃣ J. Baugh: 40+ Rush Yds – 10/10
6️⃣ C. Eakin: 25+ Rec Yds – 9/9
7️⃣ J. Daniels: 15+ Rush…
— CLEATZ 🇺🇸 🏈 🏀 ⚾️ (@cleatzdata) September 20, 2025

College Football Player Props in focus for Saturday 9/20/25

Metrics used:

1. Over hit rates for this season at current number

2. DvP hit rates for the season

High Consistency Players (100% hit rate in 2025):

Jalen Cooper (SMU WR) – Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (3/3)
Lake McRee (USC TE) – Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (3/3)
Ryan Browne (Purdue QB) – Over 0.5 Passing TDs (3/3)
Nicco Marchiol (WVU QB) – Over 165.5 Passing Yards (3/3)

These four have perfect season hit rates so far, with solid matchups supported by Defensive vs. Position (DVP) trends.

Strong QB Props:

Joey Aguilar (App State QB) – Over 278.5 Passing Yards (2/3 hit rate, 66.7%).
Ryan Browne also has a second prop listed: Over 185.5 Passing Yards (2/3 hit rate, 66.7%, but ND’s defense has allowed 100% to this line so far).
Nicco Marchiol appears twice, with both Passing Yards and Passing TD props—showing he’s heavily in focus.

Receiving Value Props:

AndreI Anthony (NCST WR) – Over 32.5 Yards (2/3, 66.7%).
Tobias Merriweather (TTU WR) – Over 22.5 Yards (2/3, 66.7%).
Que’Sean Brown (NCST WR) – Over 50.5 Yards (2/3, 66.7%, but perfect 3/3 DVP matchup).
Michael Jackson III (Purdue WR) – Over 36.5 Yards (2/3, 66.7%).

These receivers sit in the middle tier (66.7%), but favorable defenses suggest possible upside.

Rushing Angle:

Devin Mockobee (Purdue RB) – Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (2/3 hit rate, but ND’s defense has allowed 100% in 2025).

Trends & Insights

Ryan Browne and Nicco Marchiol stand out as high-volume QBs with multiple props, each with at least one perfect trend.
Purdue skill players (Browne, Jackson III, Mockobee) are all on the sheet, signaling potential opportunity in their matchup vs. Notre Dame.
Most props sit at 53.5–60.8% implied probability, so the edge comes from matchup data (DVP) and hit rates, not Vegas odds alone.

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