2027 Super Bowl Odds: DraftKings vs. Kalshi vs. Polymarket (Updated April 2026)

With the 2026 NFL season opener set for September 13, 2026, the futures market is already heating up. But looking at a single sportsbook doesn’t give you the full picture. Smart bettors are increasingly turning to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to tap the “wisdom of the crowd.”

While DraftKings sets lines to manage its own liability, prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell “shares” in a team’s championship prospects, often reacting faster to personnel changes and locker-room rumors. This comparison identifies where the “house” might be lagging behind the market’s collective intelligence.

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How to Read These Super Bowl 61 Odds

What Do the DraftKings Odds Mean?

DraftKings uses “American odds” (e.g., +750). These represent the profit on a $100 bet. To find the “implied probability” of these odds, what a sportsbook thinks the team’s chances actually are, you use this formula:

$$\text{Implied Probability} = \frac{100}{\text{Odds} + 100}$$

For example, the Rams at +750 have an implied probability of approximately 11.7%.

What Are Prediction Market Probabilities?

Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket display percentages directly.

• Kalshi: A federally regulated US exchange where odds are driven by high-volume traders.
• Polymarket: A crypto-native platform that often sees more global, speculative volume.
• The Divergence: When Polymarket or Kalshi shows a higher percentage than the DraftKings implied probability, it suggests the “crowd” is more bullish than the bookmakers.

What Is the “Vig” and Why Sportsbook Odds Look Lower

If you add up the implied probabilities of all 32 teams on DraftKings, the total will exceed 100% (usually around 120-130%). This “overround” or vig is the bookmaker’s profit margin. Prediction markets typically have a much smaller “spread,” meaning the percentages are often a more “true” reflection of reality.

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2027 Super Bowl Favorites — Top 10 Teams

LA Rams (+750) — Early Frontrunner

The Rams sit at the top of every board. Interestingly, while DraftKings implies an 11.7% chance, both Kalshi and Polymarket are more conservative at 9%. This suggests that the public might be overvaluing the Rams, or the “house” is shading this line lower due to heavy liability.

Seattle Seahawks (+950) — Prediction Markets’ Favorite ⚡

This is the most significant signal on the board. While DraftKings has them at +950 (9.5% implied), Polymarket traders have them at 11%. This “⚡” indicates a sharp discrepancy; the decentralized market believes Seattle is the true team to beat, providing potential value for those betting the +950 line now.

Buffalo Bills & Baltimore Ravens (+1000)

The AFC heavyweights are locked in a dead heat. Both prediction markets are slightly more skeptical of Baltimore (5-6%) compared to Buffalo (7-8%), suggesting the Bills may have a clearer path through the postseason in the eyes of traders.

Kansas City Chiefs (+1400) — Dynasty Discount?

Seeing the Chiefs at #5 with +1400 odds is rare. Prediction markets are split: Kalshi is relatively bullish at 8%, while Polymarket is lower at 6%. If you believe in Mahomes, this +1400 price point is a historical outlier.

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Biggest Discrepancies: Sportsbooks vs. Prediction Markets

Team	DraftKings Odds (Implied %)	Polymarket Probability	The Gap
Seattle Seahawks	+950 (9.5%)	11%	Market is +1.5% Bullish
Miami Dolphins	+30000 (0.33%)	2%	6x Probability Gap
NE Patriots	+1900 (5.0%)	5%	Market Consensus

Miami Dolphins – The 6x Gap

The most jarring number on the board is the Miami Dolphins. DraftKings has effectively written them off at +30000 ($<$1% chance). However, Polymarket traders are holding steady at 2%. While 2% is low, it is six times higher than the sportsbook’s assessment, suggesting a “lottery ticket” that the crowd isn’t ready to throw away yet.

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2027 Super Bowl Dark Horses Worth Watching

• Houston Texans (+1800): A consensus pick across all platforms, with a steady 3-4% probability.
• Chicago Bears (+2500): Watch the internal market disagreement here. Kalshi (5%) is significantly more bullish than Polymarket (3%). This usually indicates that American-regulated traders (Kalshi) are seeing something the global crypto market (Polymarket) is missing.

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Worst Super Bowl Odds for 2027

Arizona Cardinals (+40000)

The clear basement-dweller. With a probability of less than 1% across the board, the markets agree: Arizona is in full rebuild mode.

The “Stay Away” Tier

The New York Jets (+20000) and Cleveland Browns (+15000) show almost no support in prediction markets ($<$1%). Despite the “name brand” value, the crowd has zero confidence in these rosters for 2027.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win the 2027 Super Bowl?

The LA Rams are the betting favorites at +750, though the Seattle Seahawks have the highest probability (11%) on prediction markets.

What are the best Super Bowl odds right now?

If you follow the “wisdom of the crowd,” the Seahawks at +950 and the Dolphins at +30000 represent the best value compared to market probabilities.

Is Polymarket legal for NFL betting in the US?

Polymarket is generally restricted for US-based IP addresses. US residents typically use Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated, for legal prediction market trading.

When does the 2026 NFL season start?

The season officially kicks off on Sunday, September 13, 2026.

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How We Track These Odds

Our data is pulled daily from three distinct sources to provide a balanced view of the market:

1. DraftKings: Representing the traditional “Sportsbook” view.
2. Kalshi: Representing the US-regulated “Trader” view.
3. Polymarket: Representing the global “Decentralized” view.

Disclaimer: This data is for informational purposes only. Odds and probabilities change in real-time. Please wager responsibly.