Best NBA player prop picks today – Friday, April 10
We filter tonight’s board using three signals: L5/L10 hit rate (how consistently a player has hit this line recently), DVP (how the opposing defense ranks against this position and prop type), and implied probability vs. line price (where the books are shading and whether it’s justified).
The picks below are the spots where all three align.
Last updated: 1:35 PM (MT) – Lines and injury news current as of that time.
CLEATZ Top NBA Player Props
Jared McCain | Points + Reb under 25.5 | -125 vs. Denver
Denver currently ranks as the 3rd seed in the West and boasts a top-10 defensive efficiency, making them a nightmare for rookie guards trying to find space in the paint. McCain has stayed under this 25.5 line in 100% of his last 10 games, consistently settling in the 18-22 range even with heavy minutes. At -125, the books are giving us a fair price on a number that McCain hasn’t threatened in over two weeks.
Tyrese Maxey | Points + Reb under 33.5 | -112 vs. Indiana
The Pacers play at one of the fastest paces in the league, but they’ve improved to 4th in 3PT defense, which specifically targets Maxey’s primary scoring engine. Maxey has failed to hit 34 combined points and rebounds in each of his last 10 games, frequently landing between 28-31 as Joel Embiid takes on a larger share of the offensive burden. This -112 line is extremely soft considering his 100% hit rate over the last month of play.
Anthony Black | Assists over 1.5 | -240 vs. Chicago
Chicago ranks 27th in scoring defense and allows the 5th most assists per game to opposing backcourts, creating a massive floor for a primary playmaker like Black. He has recorded 2+ assists in 4 of his last 5 games, with a recent high of 5, showing he can easily clear this “low-bar” line in just a single quarter of play. While -240 is heavy juice, it is the safest anchor leg on the board given the Bulls’ inability to stop dribble penetration.
Josh Hart | Rebounds under 7.5 | -163 vs. Toronto
Toronto has surprisingly climbed to 8th in scoring defense and has become much more disciplined on the glass, limiting “garbage” rebounds for opposing wings. Hart has stayed under 7.5 boards in 4 of his last 5 games, with most of those performances ending with exactly 6 or 7 rebounds. At -163, this is a sharp line, but Hart’s decreasing rebounding rate over the last 10 games makes the under the high-probability play.
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Best 4-Leg Parlay Option
This parlay prioritizes high hit-rate floors to maximize the “all-green” L5/L10 trends.
- Leg 1: Anthony Black — Over 1.5 Assists (-240)
- Leg 2: Jared McCain — Under 25.5 Points + Reb (-125)
- Leg 3: Tyrese Maxey — Under 33.5 Points + Reb (-112)
- Leg 4: Jamal Shead — Over 4.5 Points (-170)
Total Parlay Odds: ~ +510 ($10 bet returns $51.00)
START WINNING!
NBA Props Cheat Sheet Today
Built specifically for parlay construction, our hit-rate tracking and DvP (defense vs. position) filters surface the best nightly opportunities in one place. As shown, many of the heavier moneyline prices align closely with high implied probabilities, reinforcing the edge behind these selections.
| Player | Prop / Line | Odds | IM Prob | L5 | L10 | DVP L5 | DVP L10 |
|---|
Best NBA ALT’s Hit Rates Today
NBA Props Top Alternate Lines 🏀
Friday • April 10
| Player | Prop / Line | Odds | Imp Prob | L5 / L10 hit |
|---|
Most Bet NBA Props Tonight
A new feature here on Cleatz highlights the most bet NBA player props each night, sorted by game and overall ticket count.
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donovan Clingan | Double-Double | Yes | −116 → |
| 2 | Kawhi Leonard | Points | 20+ | −800 → |
| 3 | Kawhi Leonard | Points | 25+ | −245 → |
| 4 | Toumani Camara | Points | Over 13.5 | −113 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | Double-Double | Yes | −106 → |
| 2 | Stephon Castle | Triple-Double | Yes | +1380 → |
| 3 | Cooper Flagg | Points | 25+ | −144 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Johnson | Double-Double | Yes | −252 → |
| 2 | Evan Mobley | Double-Double | Yes | +103 → |
| 3 | Evan Mobley | Pts+Reb+Ast | 25+ | −573 → |
| 4 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Points | 20+ | −169 → |
| 5 | Jalen Johnson | Triple-Double | Yes | +333 → |
| 6 | Evan Mobley | Pts+Reb+Ast | 30+ | −189 → |
| 7 | James Harden | Triple-Double | Yes | +3200 → |
| 8 | James Harden | Points | 20+ | −224 → |
| 9 | Evan Mobley | Rebounds | 8+ | −276 → |
| 10 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Points | 15+ | −542 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Duren | Double-Double | Yes | +107 → |
| 2 | Cade Cunningham | Triple-Double | Yes | +3000 → |
| 3 | Cade Cunningham | Double-Double | Yes | +178 → |
| 4 | LaMelo Ball | Double-Double | Yes | +270 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alperen Sengun | Double-Double | Yes | −107 → |
| 2 | Naz Reid | Points | 15+ | −107 → |
| 3 | Amen Thompson | Double-Double | Yes | +178 → |
| 4 | Kevin Durant | Points | 20+ | −571 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Double-Double | Yes | −275 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paolo Banchero | Double-Double | Yes | +134 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenrich Williams | Double-Double | Yes | +226 → |
| 2 | Aaron Wiggins | Points | 20+ | −190 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LeBron James | Double-Double | Yes | −164 → |
| 2 | Dillon Brooks | Pts+Reb | 20+ | −430 → |
| 3 | LeBron James | Triple-Double | Yes | +428 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bam Adebayo | Double-Double | Yes | −263 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derik Queen | Pts+Reb+Ast | 20+ | −1000 → |
| 2 | Derik Queen | Triple-Double | Yes | +1700 → |
| 3 | Derik Queen | Double-Double | Yes | +132 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyrese Maxey | Points | 25+ | −288 → |
| # | Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maxime Raynaud | Double-Double | Yes | +152 → |
NBA First Basket Scorer Hit Rates & Odds
Who will score the first basket today?
- PENDING…
NBA First Basket Scorer Leaders YTD
| Rank | Player | Team | First Baskets Scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| T-1 | Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15 |
| T-1 | Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 15 |
| T-1 | Neemias Queta | Celtics | 15 |
| T-4 | Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14 |
| T-4 | Neemias Queta | Celtics | 14 |
| T-4 | Bam Adebayo | Heat | 14 |
| T-4 | Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 14 |
| T-8 | Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12 |
| T-8 | Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 12 |
| T-8 | Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12 |
| T-8 | Wendell Carter Jr. | Magic | 12 |
| T-8 | Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 12 |
Tie these in with our NBA public bets data to get off to a winning start tonight.
START WINNING!
NBA Player Props FAQ
DVP stands for Defense vs. Position — a metric that measures how well a team defends against a specific position and prop type. A DVP of 100% on the Over for point guard assists means the defense has allowed that stat line to hit at the highest possible rate over the tracked sample. On Cleatz, we display DVP for both the last 5 and last 10 games so you can see whether a defensive weakness is a recent trend or a season-long pattern. The most actionable spots are where a player’s personal hit rate and the opposing DVP both point in the same direction — that’s when the edge is backed by two independent signals, not just one.
Alt lines are alternate versions of a player prop at a different number than the main posted line, offered at adjusted odds. If a player’s standard points line is 22.5, the sportsbook will also offer alternate lines like 17.5 at -280 or 27.5 at +210. Alt lines matter because the main line is often the sharpest, most-bet number — the books have priced out most of the value. Moving to a lower alt line can give you a significantly higher hit rate at a price that still pays well enough to show a long-term profit. Our alt lines section surfaces the specific alternate numbers with the best combination of hit rate and implied probability, so you’re not just buying down blindly.
Hit rate tells you how often a player has cleared a specific line over a recent sample — but the number only matters when it’s paired with implied probability. A player who hits a prop 70% of the time at -110 (52.4% implied probability) is a strong +EV bet. That same player at -280 (73.7% implied) is borderline breakeven. The process: find props where the hit rate meaningfully exceeds the implied probability baked into the odds, then check whether the matchup (DVP) supports the trend continuing. Hit rate alone is a starting point — it becomes a real edge when the price hasn’t caught up to the data.
No single sportsbook wins across all prop types — line shopping across at least two or three books is the most valuable habit a prop bettor can build. That said, FanDuel and DraftKings typically post the widest NBA prop menus and sharpest main lines. BetMGM often has better numbers on combo props (points + rebounds + assists). For alt lines specifically, bet365 and Caesars tend to price them more loosely. The practical move: identify your best play using our hit rate and DVP data, then check two or three books before placing — a swing from -115 to +100 on the same prop is a 15% improvement in your long-term return on that bet type.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
