Tier 1 — Best Overall First TD Picks
Kenneth Walker (SEA RB) — +370
Why it works
- Q1 rush share: 57.5% (L5) | 63.1% (L10)
- Red-zone rush share: 45.5% (L5) | 53.8% (L10)
- Seattle’s clear early-drive finisher
- Shortest TD path (no pass dependency)
CLEATZ Verdict:
The cleanest and most repeatable First TD profile on the board.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR) — +500
Why it works
- Q1 target share: 42.9% (L5) | 36.1% (L10)
- Red-zone target share: 37.5% (L5) | 40.0% (L10)
- Primary passing option on scripted drives
CLEATZ Verdict:
If the Seahawks score through the air early, JSN is overwhelmingly the most likely target.
Tier 2 — Strong Value / Leverage Picks
Hunter Henry (NE TE) — +1400
Why it works
- Team-high red-zone target share: 33%
- Consistent early-drive usage
- TE scoring tends to be underpriced in First TD markets
CLEATZ Verdict:
Excellent leverage if New England scores first via play-action.
TreVeyon Henderson (NE RB) — +3000
Why it works
- Q1 rush share: 42.5% (L5) | 47.4% (L10)
- Red-zone rush share: 60% (L5) | 62.5% (L10)
- Massive goal-line equity at long odds
CLEATZ Verdict:
One of the best long-shot First TD prices on the board.
Tier 3 — Conditional / Script-Dependent
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB) — +850
- Strong early rushing role
- Less red-zone dominance than Henderson
- Needs a Patriots-controlled opening drive
Fades / Low-Probability Options
- Secondary WRs with limited Q1 usage
- Backup RBs without goal-line roles
- QBs without designed goal-line runs
These profiles rely on broken plays, not repeatable scoring paths.
| Player | Position | RATING | Odds | First Pos Chance | Q1 Rush Share L5 | Q1 Rush Share L10 | Q1 Target L5 | Q1 Target L10 | RZ Rush Share L5 | RZ Rush Share L10 | RZ Target L5 | RZ Target L10 | L5 HIT | L10 HIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JSN | WR | 82.25 | +500 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 42.9 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.5 | 40.0 | 20% | 30% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 78.80 | +1400 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 30.0 | 20% | 20% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 70.64 | +3000 | 50.0 | 42.5 | 47.4 | 3.0 | 7.9 | 60.0 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 20% | 10% |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 67.54 | +1200 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.3 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.5 | 30.0 | 0% | 0% |
| Austin Hooper | TE | 67.00 | +4000 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 10.0 | 20% | 10% |
| Mack Hollins | WR | 64.28 | +1900 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.8 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 63.03 | +1300 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0% | 0% |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | 62.92 | +1800 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.7 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 | 0% | 10% |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | 59.96 | +370 | 50.0 | 57.5 | 63.1 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 45.5 | 53.8 | 12.5 | 20.0 | 20% | 10% |
| R. Stevenson | RB | 50.94 | +850 | 50.0 | 47.5 | 42.5 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 40.0 | 26.7 | 0.0 | 16.7 | 0% | 0% |
| Drake Maye | QB | 49.88 | +1700 | 50.0 | 7.5 | 13.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 18.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0% | 10% |
| AJ Barner | TE | 48.17 | +1200 | 50.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 11.4 | 16.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 0% | 0% |
| George Holani | RB | 48.10 | +2500 | 50.0 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 46.00 | +1700 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% |
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