The 2026 college football season is shaping up to be the most chaotic yet. With the 12-team playoff format now firmly established and the transfer portal having settled after the spring window, we turn to the gold standard of analytics: Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings.
Whether you’re looking for college football power ratings to inform your Heisman bets or just want to see how your team stacks up against the latest SP+ rankings, this is your definitive guide to the 2026 landscape.
What SP+ is (and how it differs from the AP Poll)
In the world of CFB analytics rankings, SP+ stands alone. SP+ is the college football equivalent of KenPom rankings. Developed by Bill Connelly, it is a predictive measure of team efficiency. Unlike the AP Poll or the Committee Rankings, which are “resume-based” and reward who you beat, SP+ is “performance-based.” It doesn’t care if you won by 1 on a fluke fumble; it cares how well you played on a per-play basis.
The system is derived from five primary factors:
- Success Rate: Are you staying “on schedule”?
- Explosiveness: How many “big plays” are you generating?
- Field Position: The hidden yardage battle.
- Finishing Drives: Converting yards into points.
- Turnovers: The most volatile, yet impactful, stat.
Mathematically, the rating represents how many points better (or worse) a team is than the average FBS team. For example, if a team has an Overall SP+ of $+25.0$, they would be favored by 25 points over an average opponent on a neutral field.
Why it diverges from the AP Poll: The AP Poll is a beauty contest; SP+ is a calculator. Voters often overrate teams with “clean” records against weak schedules. SP+ strips away the fluff, adjusting for every opponent and every tempo, often revealing “paper tigers” long before the playoff committee does.
Full SP+ Rankings Table (2026 Season)
Below is the updated SP+ table for the Top 20 teams heading into the 2026 season, including their current DraftKings National Title odds and the “Delta”, the gap between analytics and the consensus Way-Too-Early (WTE) polls.
| Rank | Team | Off SP+ | Def SP+ | Overall SP+ | WTE Rank | Delta | Title Odds |
| 1 | Ohio State | 42.1 | 11.2 | 30.9 | 2 | +1 | +700 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 38.5 | 10.4 | 28.1 | 7 | +5 | +700 |
| 3 | Texas | 44.2 | 16.8 | 27.4 | 3 | 0 | +700 |
| 4 | Oregon | 41.8 | 15.5 | 26.3 | 1 | -3 | +900 |
| 5 | Georgia | 37.9 | 12.1 | 25.8 | 6 | +1 | +1100 |
| 6 | Indiana | 39.4 | 14.2 | 25.2 | 4 | -2 | +700 |
| 7 | Texas Tech | 40.8 | 18.9 | 21.9 | 5 | -2 | +1500 |
| 8 | LSU | 43.5 | 22.4 | 21.1 | 11 | +3 | +1300 |
| 9 | Miami (FL) | 36.7 | 15.8 | 20.9 | 8 | -1 | +1500 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 35.1 | 14.9 | 20.2 | 13 | +3 | +3500 |
| 11 | Ole Miss | 41.2 | 21.3 | 19.9 | 9 | -2 | +3500 |
| 12 | Texas A&M | 33.8 | 14.1 | 19.7 | 12 | 0 | +1800 |
| 13 | Alabama | 34.5 | 16.2 | 18.3 | 16 | +3 | +2500 |
| 14 | USC | 40.2 | 23.5 | 16.7 | 15 | +1 | +3500 |
| 15 | Michigan | 28.4 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 14 | -1 | +4000 |
| 16 | Tennessee | 36.9 | 21.5 | 15.4 | 19 | +3 | +6500 |
| 17 | Penn State | 29.8 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 24 | +7 | +5000 |
| 18 | Missouri | 35.5 | 21.2 | 14.3 | 20 | +2 | +9000 |
| 19 | Utah | 31.2 | 17.5 | 13.7 | 18 | -1 | +7000 |
| 20 | Clemson | 32.4 | 19.1 | 13.3 | 25 | +5 | +8000 |
Biggest Gaps: SP+ vs. CFB Polls
The “Delta” column is where the money is made. These are the teams the model believes the public is either overhyping or ignoring.
- The Model’s Darling: Notre Dame (Delta +5). Despite having the third-best Title odds (+700), many human polls have the Irish outside the top 5. SP+ loves their #1 ranking in returning production and a defense that ranks top-3 nationally.
- The Value Play: Penn State (Delta +7). Humans have punished the Nittany Lions for a 7-6 season and a coaching change, but the model sees the influx of Big 12 talent following Matt Campbell and projects a top-20 finish. At +5000, they are a massive “buy low.”
- The “Paper Tiger”: Indiana (Delta -2). It feels blasphemous to call the defending 16-0 national champs a “paper tiger,” but SP+ notes the loss of key NFL talent. While they remain elite, the model suggests they are closer to the 6th-best team than the 1st.
- The Sleeping Giant: Oklahoma (Delta +3). At +3500 odds, the Sooners are being priced as a Tier-3 team. SP+ ranks them 10th, suggesting their defensive metrics are far more sustainable than the public realizes.
SP+ CFP Projections: Who the Model Likes for the Playoff
With the 12-team field, SP+ is looking for high floors and elite defenses. Here is who the model is currently “buying” for the playoff:
- Notre Dame (+700): The model likes the Irish as a lock for the field. If you think they’re a CFP shoo-in, check the current Kalshi CFP markets to see if you can find a better price than the Title futures.
- Texas Tech (+1500): After a breakout 2025, the Red Raiders return 70% of their offensive production. SP+ projects them as the favorite to win the Big 12.
- LSU (+1300): The model loves the offense (43.5 SP+), but the defense is the question mark. Kalshi markets often price LSU high on “To Make Playoff” due to their brand, making them a potential “short” candidate if the defense doesn’t improve.
How accurate is SP+ at predicting CFP teams?
Critics often point to “weird” rankings, but historical data shows that the SP+ Top 5 in August almost always produces at least two Playoff participants.
| Season | SP+ Top 5 Accuracy | Correct CFP Teams in Top 10 |
| 2025 | 80% (4 of 5) | 9 of 12 |
| 2024 | 60% (3 of 5) | 8 of 12 |
| 2023 | 75% (3 of 4) | 3 of 4 (4-team era) |
| 2022 | 100% (4 of 4) | 4 of 4 (4-team era) |
SP+ Defensive Rankings: The Most Underrated Teams
Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships and covers spreads. These are the teams with the lowest Def SP+ (lower is better), representing the most “underrated” units in the country.
| Rank | Team | Def SP+ | Notable Player |
| 1 | Notre Dame | 10.4 | LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa |
| 2 | Ohio State | 11.2 | CB Davison Igbinosun |
| 3 | Georgia | 12.1 | S Julian Humphrey |
| 4 | Michigan | 12.8 | DT Enow Etta |
| 5 | Texas A&M | 14.1 | DE Nic Scourton |
The Takeaway: If you’re betting the “Under” this season, keep an eye on Texas A&M and Michigan. While their offenses are rebuilding, their defensive efficiency numbers suggest they will be in every game.
Jason Ziernicki is the founder of CLEATZ, where he analyzes sports betting data, public betting percentages, alt-line trends, and prediction markets across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
He is based in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he routinely trades on Kalshi each month, hoping to win on weather markets like snowfall, as well as sports and politics.
His work focuses on turning sportsbook data and betting market trends into actionable insights for bettors/traders.
