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CLEATZ NFL Power Index

How to read the CPI

What the CLEATZ Power Index is
— and why it beats a record

The CLEATZ Power Index (CPI) is a composite NFL power rating that goes beyond wins and losses. Instead of ranking teams by record, CPI weights point differential, offensive and defensive scoring efficiency, and turnover luck regression to surface how good teams actually are — not just how fortunate they’ve been in close games. A team can go 10-7 and rank #20 in CPI. Another can go 8-9 and rank #8. The record is what happened. CPI is closer to what’s true.

CPI Score
The composite rating (0–100) Normalized across all 32 teams. 100 = best possible. Computed from four weighted inputs — point differential, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and turnover luck. Higher is better.
Pt Diff
Total season point differential Runs scored minus runs allowed across all 17 games. The single most predictive season stat in football — more stable than record, less noisy than individual game outcomes.
vs Record
CPI rank minus W-L rank ▲ green = CPI thinks you’re better than your record suggests. ▼ red = CPI thinks you got lucky. The bigger the number, the bigger the gap between reality and perception.
TO Luck
Turnover luck regression score Fumble recoveries regress to 50% over time. Teams significantly above zero got lucky — expect their turnover margin to fall next season. Teams below zero are due for positive regression.
vs Record badge
▲6 ▼4
A green ▲6 means CPI ranks that team 6 spots higher than their win-loss rank. They’re better than their record suggests — a bounce-back or undervalued market candidate. A red ▼4 means CPI is skeptical of their record.
TO Luck badge
+3.8 risk -1.2 due
Risk flags teams whose fumble recovery rate was well above the expected 50% — their turnover margin is likely to fall next season. Due flags teams who ran cold on fumble luck and should improve.
Result badges
SB Champ Playoff
Shows each team’s postseason result for the 2025 season. Use this to cross-reference how well CPI predicted playoff success — teams CPI ranked highly that missed the playoffs are the most interesting 2026 candidates.
Methodology
nflfastR EPA data · Pro Football Reference · EPA tier benchmarks via nfelo · Trade CPI signals on Kalshi
What the data is telling us

The 2025 CPI stories
no power ranking caught

The biggest story of 2025
The Chiefs weren’t as bad as 6-11 looks

Kansas City finished with a +34 point differential despite going 6-11 — a gap that almost never happens to genuinely bad teams. For context, most 6-11 teams post point differentials between -80 and -140. The Chiefs were CPI #18 all season.


What happened? The Chiefs ran historically cold on turnover luck (-3.8, worst in the league) and lost a league-high nine games by seven points or fewer. That’s not a bad team — that’s a 10-win team that got hit by variance. Heading into 2026, CPI flags Kansas City as the single most undervalued team in division winner markets. The dynasty isn’t dead. It took a year off.

+34
Point differential
Chiefs 2025 season
Despite a 6-11 record

-3.8
TO luck score
Worst fumble recovery variance
in the entire league
CPI validation
CPI called the Seahawks all season long

Seattle’s 17.2 PPG allowed was the best defensive efficiency mark in the NFL. CPI had them ranked #1 from Week 6 onward based purely on that number — long before the public consensus caught up. They won Super Bowl LX. This is what CPI is built to do: identify elite teams before the market prices them in. The Seahawks were never a surprise to CPI readers.

Transformation, not a fluke
The Jaguars turnaround was real

From 4-13 in 2024 to 13-4 in 2025 — the most dramatic single-season turnaround in recent NFL history. Pundits called it a fluke. CPI disagreed. Jacksonville’s +138 point differential was the fourth-best in the league. Teams with that kind of efficiency margin don’t stumble into 13 wins. The Jaguars earned every one of them, and CPI has them as legitimate 2026 contenders heading into next season.

Most underrated team of 2025
Indianapolis was a top-10 team in a 8-9 body

The Colts missed the playoffs at 8-9 but posted a +54 point differential — identical to the Eagles, who made it at 11-6. CPI ranked Indianapolis CPI #12, six spots higher than their win-loss rank suggested. Their -0.9 TO luck score means they also ran cold on fumble variance. Both of those things correct. Watch Indianapolis in 2026 division markets — they are significantly underpriced.

cleatz.com — CPI v2.0 — 2025 Season Final

NFL CLEATZ Power
Index

Composite power ratings built from point differential, scoring efficiency, SOS-adjusted record, and turnover luck regression. Full 2025 regular season — all 32 teams ranked.

SB LX Champion: Seattle Seahawks  ·  14-3
Season
2025 NFL
Week 18 Final · All 32 Teams
Biggest story
Chiefs 6-11 · +34 pt diff
Worst dynasty collapse in NFL history
CPI #1 · SB Champion
SEA Seahawks
14-3 · +191 pt diff · 17.2 PPG allowed
Best efficiency value
HOU Texans
12-5 · +109 · only 17.4 PPG allowed
Biggest overperformer
KC Chiefs
6-11 record · +34 pt diff · dynasty ends
Most underrated by record
IND Colts
8-9 W-L · +54 pt diff · CPI top 10
Seahawks win it all — Best defense in the league (17.2 PPG allowed) paired with a strong offense (+191 pt diff). CPI had them #1 all season.
Chiefs dynasty collapses — 6-11 record but +34 pt differential suggests they weren’t as bad as their record. Turnover luck and close-game variance finally caught up.
Jaguars shock story — 4-13 in 2024 to 13-4 in 2025. CPI flags this as a genuine transformation, not a fluke.
Patriots resurface — 4-13 to 14-3 with Drake Maye. +170 pt diff confirms the record was real. Lost SB to Seattle.
CPI Power Rankings — 2025 Final
Click columns to sort
CPI ranks team higher than record
CPI ranks team lower than record
Turnover luck flag
Rk ↕ Team CPI ↕ W-L Pt Diff ↕ PPG ↕ PPG Allowed ↕ vs Record ↕ TO Luck Result
* CPI = composite of point differential (35%), defensive efficiency (25%), offensive efficiency (25%), turnover luck regression (15%). Source: 2025 NFL final regular season standings.
Biggest CPI vs Record gaps
TeamW-L RkCPI RkEdge
Turnover Luck flags
TeamW-LPt DiffTO Signal
What makes CPI different
∑
Core metric
Efficiency-weighted composite
Point differential and scoring efficiency weighted at 1.6× defensive metrics. The Chiefs’ +34 pt diff despite 6-11 is exactly the signal CPI catches that pure record misses.
±
Core metric
Turnover luck regression
Fumble recovery rates regress toward 50% over time. The 2025 Chiefs (-3.8 TO luck) show how negative fumble variance contributed to their collapse.
◊
Core metric
Defensive efficiency anchor
The Seahawks (17.2 PPG allowed) and Texans (17.4 PPG allowed) had the two best defenses. CPI weights this heavily — elite defense is the most consistent path to playoff success.
↔
2026 addition
Market implied rating
Back-calculated from Kalshi Super Bowl and division winner odds every week. The gap between CPI and market pricing is your actionable edge signal — published each Monday.
⚡
2026 addition
QB EPA per dropback
Drake Maye’s emergence was the biggest single-player CPI swing in the dataset. Per-dropback EPA isolates QB contribution from team context.
△
2026 addition
Clutch 4Q rating
Isolating 4th-quarter efficiency in games within 7 points strips garbage time and surfaces the teams that actually win when it matters.

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