Cracks in the Cabinet: Why Prediction Markets are Betting Against Kristi Noem and Howard Lutnick
The second Trump administration arrived with a promise of absolute loyalty and “unprecedented stability.” For a year, that narrative held, at least compared to the revolving door of 2017. But as we close out February 2026, the cracks…
Kalshi Prediction Markets Price Trump’s State of the Union Speech – Here’s What Traders Expect
Kalshi Traders Are Pricing the Bingo Card If you’re trading the Kalshi “What will Trump say?” market, congratulations, you’ve found the only place in America where “Discombobulator” has an implied probability. Let’s break this down like we would an…
2026 Midterms: Prediction Markets Smell a Dem Sweep
If the political class is confused about 2026, don’t worry, the prediction markets have already decided what’s going to happen, how it’s going to happen, and how much they’re willing to lose betting on it. Kalshi and Polymarket traders have been grinding…